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  • #12,161
  • May 11, 2010 6:38pm May 11, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting simpleman
My view on USDCHF:
Starting with the BOSS as you can see on the chart longer term trend is still down. Immediate trend on the worker is bullish as it is making HL & HH within the longer term down trend. The pair kissed the resistance near 112ish and gave back some of its gain. Should she goes to 116.50ish near TL and R confluence then I want to see some bearish PA to go short. Break of 116.50 will change the scenario from bearish to bullish.

Any comments will be appreciated.
Hi Simpleman,

I would not think short at this time until price closes below 1.0560 level. Big Boss and Boss current sentiments are up.
  • #12,162
  • May 11, 2010 7:05pm May 11, 2010 7:05pm
Hello,

No sense trying to be futuristic and guess where you might attempt to short on a fresh bull trend unless you trade smaller tfs.

Simpleman what is your definition of a bearish and bullish trend?
Quoting simpleman
My view on USDCHF:
Starting with the BOSS as you can see on the chart longer term trend is still down. Immediate trend on the worker is bullish as it is making HL & HH within the longer term down trend. The pair kissed the resistance near 112ish and gave back some of its gain. Should she goes to 116.50ish near TL and R confluence then I want to see some bearish PA to go short. Break of 116.50 will change the scenario from bearish to bullish.

Any comments will be appreciated.
Annoying Precision
  • #12,163
  • May 11, 2010 7:31pm May 11, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Simpleman,

I would not think short at this time until price closes below 1.0560 level. Big Boss and Boss current sentiments are up.
Hmmmmm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #12,164
  • May 11, 2010 7:37pm May 11, 2010 7:37pm

Quoting Alexandra
Hmmmmm
Annoying Precision
  • #12,165
  • May 11, 2010 8:41pm May 11, 2010 8:41pm
[quote=simpleman;3715537]
Quoting PistolDave
How do you manage to get two more small charts on one? Is it MT4?
It's an app called "Snagit."
  • #12,166
  • May 11, 2010 10:20pm May 11, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting simpleman
My view on USDCHF:
Starting with the BOSS as you can see on the chart longer term trend is still down. Immediate trend on the worker is bullish as it is making HL & HH within the longer term down trend. The pair kissed the resistance near 112ish and gave back some of its gain. Should she goes to 116.50ish near TL and R confluence then I want to see some bearish PA to go short. Break of 116.50 will change the scenario from bearish to bullish.

Any comments will be appreciated.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 05-11-2010.gif Size: 35 KB


Have you considered this SR zone shown on this chart?

-What is your plan if it breaks through?

-What if there is a reversal at the zone?

-If price action on the worker contradicts the boss and big boss, will you still take the risk or will you wait until all the timeframes align?

-What if the market becomes range bound and drifts sideways for weeks, like the recent action on AUDCAD?

-Is this the end of an upswing begun in December 2009 back to the long-term downtrend line, or has the market put in a major bottom and will break through that line and begin a long-term uptrend?

-What position will you take then? Long, short, or flat?

You see, there are many possibilities. That's why picking tops and bottoms, and guessing where the market "may" turn is a losing strategy -- and why PASR is a winning method. Because we wait and let the market tell us what it is most likely to do. And if it is not telling us anything then we don't do anything until it does.

Ask yourself: What is my plan?
  • #12,167
  • May 12, 2010 2:28am May 12, 2010 2:28am
Quoting strat
I did exactly as described, scrolled back to early September 2009, with the chart bare, except for the SR lines. Then, advanced the chart one bar at a time, using the F12 key....

NO! [/font][/b][font=Arial]You cannot expect to do trend trades until you have mastered basic PASR. If you don’t believe me ask CrudeCraig.

Strat is 110% right! Don't do as i did and think that you can just jump into a trend with a relaxed SL and keep adding on positions. It always looks easy after the fact but in real time with real money and little trading experience it added up to many BE trades when i could have made a good chunk had i been trading to first R or S. Do yourself a favor and stick to the basics.
  • #12,168
  • May 12, 2010 5:57am May 12, 2010 5:57am
Quoting patrick25
Hi Simpleman,

I would not think short at this time until price closes below 1.0560 level. Big Boss and Boss current sentiments are up.

Hi Patrcik,
If I find bearish PA around 116-117 which is also a confluence of resistance and trand line on my chart then I will go short as I still believe she is in down trend and the trend has not ended yet. What I would not do is to go short near 112. It depends on how you see the pair I see it as bear until the break of 117ish. BIG BOSS & BOSS sentiments were up before as well but it was just a retracement to the trend line / resistance and then back to the square one.
  • #12,169
  • May 12, 2010 6:07am May 12, 2010 6:07am
Quoting erikte279
Hello,

No sense trying to be futuristic and guess where you might attempt to short on a fresh bull trend unless you trade smaller tfs.

Simpleman what is your definition of a bearish and bullish trend?
Hi Erikte,
I am trying to be futuristic, I am trying to explain what I am seeing on the chart and on the BOSS chart there is TL (descending) which tells me that there will be an opportunity and one need to keep an eye on. HH & HL has been made before but just to give it back after some rally.

Definition of Trend: Please see Dr Joe post by Dr Strat, lol

Thanks
  • #12,170
  • May 12, 2010 6:29am May 12, 2010 6:29am
Quoting PistolDave

Attachment



Ask yourself: What is my plan?
Have you considered this SR zone shown on this chart?
No, I considered SR on my chart the immediate reistance is at 112 on my chart.
-What is your plan if it breaks through?
I will wait for the re-test on TL/R and with valid PA I will go long(if it ever breaks 117)
-If price action on the worker contradicts the boss and big boss, will you still take the risk or will you wait until all the timeframes align?
Worker is UP, Boss is UP, BIG BOSS is UP should I go long when I see it as retracement(counter trend), I wouldn't be long unless I am at trading counter trends
-What if the market becomes range bound and drifts sideways for weeks, like the recent action on AUDCAD?
No trade if goes range bound but as I said I will go short with valid bearish PA near 117
-Is this the end of an upswing begun in December 2009 back to the long-term downtrend line, or has the market put in a major bottom and will break through that line and begin a long-term uptrend?
I can't tell if it is an end to an upswing yet as I will expect the price to go to TL/R 117ish and then with valid bearish PA. Similarly I will only beleive it is in an uptrend it it breaks BOSS trendline of 117ish
That's why picking tops and bottoms, and guessing where the market "may" turn is a losing strategy -- and why PASR is a winning method.
I am not trying to guess anything and offcourse will take what market will give me but at the same we have TL S & R and then we have to watch those levels very carefully and as you said PASR is winning method

Is my plan clear? please let me know and thanks for your very useful input AND DO NOT FORGET EURUSD, where will it go if USDCHF keep going up.
  • #12,171
  • May 12, 2010 9:16am May 12, 2010 9:16am
Have you considered this SR zone shown on this chart?
No, I considered SR on my chart the immediate reistance is at 112 on my chart.

Yes. That is what I was pointing out.

-What is your plan if it breaks through?
I will wait for the re-test on TL/R and with valid PA I will go long(if it ever breaks 117)

Price is in an intermediate term uptrend now. You may want to call it a retracement. Resistance is at 1.1200 - 1.1300. Are you are going to wait until price breaks through that and goes up another 400-500 pips before you consider an entry?

-If price action on the worker contradicts the boss and big boss, will you still take the risk or will you wait until all the timeframes align?
Worker is UP, Boss is UP, BIG BOSS is UP should I go long when I see it as retracement(counter trend), I wouldn't be long unless I am at trading counter trends

I agree.

-What if the market becomes range bound and drifts sideways for weeks, like the recent action on AUDCAD?
No trade if goes range bound but as I said I will go short with valid bearish PA near 117

I see.

-Is this the end of an upswing begun in December 2009 back to the long-term downtrend line, or has the market put in a major bottom and will break through that line and begin a long-term uptrend?
I can't tell if it is an end to an upswing yet as I will expect the price to go to TL/R 117ish and then with valid bearish PA. Similarly I will only beleive it is in an uptrend it it breaks BOSS trendline of 117ish

Since you expect price to retrace back to a downtrend line, and you have already determined somehow that 117 is going to be the level where you decide to go short or long, then why not ride the upswing all the way up to your entry level, then go short? Or, even better, if price continues on a bullish trend you will already be in the trade?

That's why picking tops and bottoms, and guessing where the market "may" turn is a losing strategy -- and why PASR is a winning method.
I am not trying to guess anything and offcourse will take what market will give me but at the same we have TL S & R and then we have to watch those levels very carefully and as you said PASR is winning method

Not trying to be rude, but if you are not guessing, then what is the significance of 117 and why do you consider it a turning point in the market?

Is my plan clear? please let me know and thanks for your very useful input AND DO NOT FORGET EURUSD, where will it go if USDCHF keep going up.

Your plan seems clear, I just don't quite understand the logic.

Dave
  • #12,172
  • May 12, 2010 10:14am May 12, 2010 10:14am
Since you expect price to retrace back to a downtrend line, and you have already determined somehow that 117 is going to be the level where you decide to go short or long, then why not ride the upswing all the way up to your entry level, then go short? Or, even better, if price continues on a bullish trend you will already be in the trade?

Dave,
I am too scared of getting short in this trade at this level as I see it now but lets see what she does again near resistance of 112ish I might will go short depending on what price action I see or go long if 112 resistance breakswith validPA.
  • #12,173
  • May 12, 2010 12:26pm May 12, 2010 12:26pm
All I can hear is Elvis singing "It's Now or Never" or "O Sole Mio" in ice cream language.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd and usdchf big boss.gif Size: 31 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,174
  • May 12, 2010 4:49pm May 12, 2010 4:49pm
I was looking for YOUR definition of a trend, if your able to define one.

Quoting simpleman
Hi Erikte,
I am trying to be futuristic, I am trying to explain what I am seeing on the chart and on the BOSS chart there is TL (descending) which tells me that there will be an opportunity and one need to keep an eye on. HH & HL has been made before but just to give it back after some rally.
Definition of Trend: Please see Dr Joe post by Dr Strat, lol

Thanks
Annoying Precision
  • #12,175
  • Edited 6:11pm May 12, 2010 5:18pm | Edited 6:11pm
Quoting erikte279
I was looking for YOUR definition of a trend, if your able to define one.
What I understand is if all the 3 (WORKER, BOSS & BIG BOSS) are in alignment and are moving up in other words making HHs & HL then the trend is up or vice versa.
As there are several trends within trends therefore we first must establish what the dominant trend is. And to find the dominant trend I zoom out as much as I can on BIG BOSS and then I draw TL whether ascending or descending.

In USDCHF case you can argue all 3 are in up trend but if you look at zoomed out picture it is in downtrend and all the bull moves proved to be just retracements(see the 1800 pips move between Feb 08 and Oct 08). Has this scenario change I don't know yet. To establish a bull trend on this pair I want to see the break of down TL.

Are you happy with my definition of trend establishment or please advice me as I am open to accept your way or correct way to establish trend.
  • #12,176
  • May 12, 2010 7:11pm May 12, 2010 7:11pm
You've missed out on over 1000 pips thus far over a 5.5 month period.

If you havent seen any oppurtunities to get in a trade then your definition is inadequate, keep studying .


Quoting simpleman
What I understand is if all the 3 (WORKER, BOSS & BIG BOSS) are in alignment and are moving up in other words making HHs & HL then the trend is up or vice versa.
As there are several trends within trends therefore we first must establish what the dominant trend is. And to find the dominant trend I zoom out as much as I can on BIG BOSS and then I draw TL whether ascending or descending.

In USDCHF case you can argue all 3 are in up trend but if you look at zoomed out picture it is in downtrend and all the bull moves proved to be just retracements(see...
Annoying Precision
  • #12,177
  • May 12, 2010 7:44pm May 12, 2010 7:44pm
Quoting erikte279
You've missed out on over 1000 pips thus far over a 5.5 month period.

If you havent seen any oppurtunities to get in a trade then your definition is inadequate, keep studying .
That's where I stop you. You add so little to the forum. I assume that you have captured those 1000 pips?

You may wish to consider how many pips some of your senior colleagues have captured long EUR or short U/CHF over the last decade.

Leave him alone given that he is trying to capture things the appropriate way and his attitude is excellent.
  • #12,178
  • May 12, 2010 7:54pm May 12, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting simpleman
What I understand is if all the 3 (WORKER, BOSS & BIG BOSS) are in alignment and are moving up in other words making HHs & HL then the trend is up or vice versa.
As there are several trends within trends therefore we first must establish what the dominant trend is. And to find the dominant trend I zoom out as much as I can on BIG BOSS and then I draw TL whether ascending or descending.

In USDCHF case you can argue all 3 are in up trend but if you look at zoomed out picture it is in downtrend and all the bull moves proved to be just retracements(see...
You are not alone in questioning trends as they can be very confusing and certainly NOT as simple as showing it to a 5 years old!

I did a pretty detailed explanation of trends and which trend to look at in each time frame in a post quite a while ago. See if you can find it or maybe someone can put their finger on it straightaway.

I know Christopher (Lotuselanman) asked about this so maybe he can get to it.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,179
  • Edited 8:17pm May 12, 2010 8:01pm | Edited 8:17pm
Why dont you MIND YOUR BUSINESS, keep your ignorance to yourself. I'd like to know what your definition of "Capturing things the appropriate way is". Could it possibly be telling your fellow long term traders (students) that your Long e/u in a VERY bearish downtrend?
Quoting Alexandra
That's where I stop you. You add so little to the forum. I assume that you have captured those 1000 pips?

You may wish to consider how many pips some of your senior colleagues have captured long EUR or short U/CHF over the last decade.

Leave him alone given that he is trying to capture things the appropriate way and his attitude is excellent.
Annoying Precision
  • #12,180
  • May 12, 2010 9:50pm May 12, 2010 9:50pm
The AUDCAD market has been in a sideways channel for the past three months and finally appears to be breaking out to the downside.

Big Boss, Boss, and Worker are all on the same team now and there does not seem to be any major resistance to stand in the way of a potential move down to the 0.8900 area. I am looking for a pullback to the bottom of the channel around the 0.9200-0.9250 area, then PA that would show a low risk short setup there. If the trade sets up I would target 0.8900 since I am trading SR to SR.

Of course anything is possible so I'll wait for price to indicate what to do.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad 05-12-2010.gif Size: 35 KB

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