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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #63,421
  • May 11, 2010 10:48am May 11, 2010 10:48am
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi Mike

Could you tell me which brokers have daily close at 5pm est please

Cheers
Hey G

I use fxpro for my daily charting

Best
Mike
  • #63,422
  • May 11, 2010 10:54am May 11, 2010 10:54am
Quoting FX Raider
Here is a PA setup I observed on the GJ and GU pairs, both happened at the S1 pivot point today. I'm going to post the image for the GU setup.
I have taken profit on the GU setup. Still eager to hear everyone else's exit strategies. For this 1HR setup that was entered at S1 and also Scaled Into again at the 50% fib, I have exited at the daily M3 pivot which is also a 161.8% fib extension of today's move and pullback.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Live to trade another day...
  • #63,423
  • May 11, 2010 10:59am May 11, 2010 10:59am
Quoting FX Raider
I have taken profit on the GU setup. Still eager to hear everyone else's exit strategies. For this 1HR setup that was entered at S1 and also Scaled Into again at the 50% fib, I have exited at the daily M3 pivot which is also a 161.8% fib extension of today's move and pullback.
Your lines are very good. Exactly the stuff we should look for. I marked off the trouble areas that would have me most concerned as a general guide. Again bar wise would want a bigger bar but this proves why location is everything as where price stalled was a very very crisp PPZ and important area of supply and demand
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  • #63,424
  • Edited 12:09pm May 11, 2010 11:15am | Edited 12:09pm
Hey Ghous,

Your post is telling me that this IPB in subject (hereinafter known as "the said IPB") is too small compared with, in your own words the huge oncoming fast train. Yes I am aware of how important PA bar size is together with other confluence factors. But my learning materials on IPB are solely those coming from you Ghous. So those are what I used as yardsticks when making a decision. Believe me your example charts stick to my head like bees to honey
Let just start with looking at the size of the said IPB compared with your examples (black is the said IPB chart, your examples are white).

Honestly, tell me if the oncoming train in your examples are not as fast and heavy as those in that on the 1H GBPUSD chart? Aren't the IPBs in your examples showing as much 'resistance' towards the onslaught as the said IPB (meaning IPB bar size is of equal proportion relative to oncoming train)?
Well. to me they are comparable and hence my stand that the said IPB setup is good or at least okay.

I understand you said that it is best that the IPB is found on a pullback to a major trend and the said IPB has that characteristic as well (I mean if you consider this point at the time the bar closes and bars to the right are not formed yet). The difference between your examples and the said IPB would be the location/confluence factors. In your examples IPB occured at 50%/62% FIB of the pullback whereas the said IPB occurs at BRN 1.5.
Unless we are saying the FIB has better predictive power than the BRN, I really can't say why the said IPB is inferior.
Or maybe I don't understand your post enough.

Sure, in hindsight it is easy to give reasons as to why a setup did not work out ( usually insufficient bar size) but hey here I am trying to be objective using yardsticks as given by yourself. How come nobody come out and say this fails because it just 'happens' as it is all a probability game. Good probablity does not mean no failures at all, does it?

My earlier post has nothing to do with not being picky ( you can't have everybody have the same level of pickiness anyway) because to me, it is a good IPB worth a trade with the good R:R as are with IPB trades. It has to do with getting the inputs and comments from members as to why the trade did not work out based on IPB setups.

No offence here my friend. I appreciate a healthy discussion and do not mean to sound nasty.
Now the ball is back on your side.

CY
Quoting ghous
How much time have you spent looking for A+ setups on the daily and weekly Ertorque?

How much time have you spent trying to be super super conservative?

How much time have you spent trying to be an mbqb11?
I have repeatedly mentioned in my posts that the "IPB" is an advanced concept. It ain't any license for more free money. If you don't get that straight you're in for a horrible awakening...

An IPB just like any other PA bar is only an "excuse" to enter the market, what's important...a lot more important is the big picture.

We've...
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  • #63,425
  • May 11, 2010 11:31am May 11, 2010 11:31am
People who are so afraid of having a losing trade will fail as traders. You can't possibly have a 100% win rate, and if you cannot handle a losing trade to the point that you over-analyze every losing trade that you take, you will ultimately fail.

One of the most frustrating things in this thread is when an A+ trade fails, and everyone starts trying to find a reason why it failed. lol!

LOSING TRADES IS PART OF THE BUSINESS, DO NOT FREAK OUT IF ONE OF YOUR TRADES FAILS.

You will make money, and you will lose money. As long as you are hitting more than you are missing, you will be fine.

I love it when people find a thousand reasons for why a pin bar failed after the fact, yet all the winning pin bars would have had all those thousand reasons for failure as well, except no one is looking for it on those trades.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't ask questions, but I'm saying that you should at least have an understanding that you WILL HAVE LOSING TRADES. If you let it scare you away from the markets, you will never have the confidence to play the next bar, and get your equity balance back to where it was before the losing trade.

This week I had a fail trade on E/U and lost 1%. so what? I was up 1.8% last week on my live account, and my demoing+live trading was up 8.7%

What a shame! I gave back a little bit! I'm not going to freeze up though.


I posted a bullish weekly pin that failed on crude, and after it failed I got a bunch of reasons why that pin was no good, then after that, I have taken two more pins (except on gold, and silver these other times) that looked almost exactly the same as the crude pin, and both of those ones have completely won, puting me at 2/3 success on what some called "bad pin".

Just believe in yourself and your trading. I know at first it is really hard to believe that you know what you are doing, but with time you will start to see the light, and realize that your own analysis will trump that of anyone else.

One of my rules that I have taped to the edge of my monitor says "DONT LISTEN TO OTHERS ABOUT A SETUP" that may sound arrogant, but it is really the best way to get a feel for the way trading works, and see the market through your own eyes, which is what I believe J16's teaching method is all about.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #63,426
  • May 11, 2010 11:45am May 11, 2010 11:45am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
People who are so afraid of having a losing trade will fail as traders....
I agree Dan, once you have found concepts and setups that work you have to rinse and repeat and the outcomes you accept. For example over my data now I understand the potentials and drawbacks within reason(meaning X amount of loss% in a row or X amount of win% in a row usually falls on a range with outliers here and there). The issue isn't with losses, if it is then I agree 100%. The issue is that a lot of losses people take are either unwarranted or they NEED to learn from them b/c they don't have as solid of a foundation as you. So we have to understand them from both regards. From the way you explain once we have something that works(and that way we don't method hop which most people do), and also in the regards to make sure we have our shoes on the right foot

Mike
  • #63,427
  • May 11, 2010 11:47am May 11, 2010 11:47am
Now, this is something I'd like to hear people say more. Good one Dan!

CY
Quoting Dan Gilbert
People who are so afraid of having a losing trade will fail as traders. You can't possibly have a 100% win rate, and if you cannot handle a losing trade to the point that you over-analyze every losing trade that you take, you will ultimately fail.

One of the most frustrating things in this thread is when an A+ trade fails, and everyone starts trying to find a reason why it failed. lol!

LOSING TRADES IS PART OF THE BUSINESS, DO NOT FREAK OUT IF ONE OF YOUR TRADES FAILS.

You will make money, and you will lose money. As long as you are hitting...
  • #63,428
  • May 11, 2010 11:55am May 11, 2010 11:55am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
People who are so afraid of having a losing trade will fail as traders....

I agree!
We must study well the method of James and then act with good m / m
  • #63,429
  • May 11, 2010 12:00pm May 11, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting mbqb11
The issue is that a lot of losses people take are either unwarranted or they NEED to learn from them b/c they don't have as solid of a foundation as you. So we have to understand them from both regards.
Oh I understand this, believe me.

But Mike you know better than me that a lot of what you know now is just pure instinct. You had to keep practicing in order to know what you know. You have taught me things that have improved my trading a LOT, and this is even just recently.

I'm not saying that people shouldn't keep asking questions, and keep learning, but to accept the fact that all you can do is keep trying, and if you fall on your face, you will learn from it. Don't let it discourage you. Keep your own rules closer than anything else, and develop them through experience, and practice. Practice new methods on demo accounts, and maintain all your rules for live trades.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #63,430
  • May 11, 2010 12:03pm May 11, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
Oh I understand this, believe me.

But Mike you know better than me that a lot of what you know now is just pure instinct....


it's an ongoing process for sure
  • #63,431
  • May 11, 2010 12:20pm May 11, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting mbqb11


it's an ongoing process for sure
I've had wind taken out of my sails in the past, I don't want that to happen to me anymore. Just keep learning
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #63,432
  • May 11, 2010 12:34pm May 11, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting ertorque
Hey Ghous,

Your post is telling me that this IPB in subject (hereinafter known as "the said IPB") is too small compared with, in your own words the huge oncoming fast train. Yes I am aware of how important PA bar size is together with other confluence factors. But my learning materials on IPB are solely those coming from you Ghous. So those are what I used as yardsticks when making a decision. Believe me your example charts stick to my head like bees to honey
Let just start with looking at the size of the said IPB compared with your examples...
Your said IPB was wayyy smaller than it should have been.

The examples I illustrated in the "intro to IPB" post were not taken blindly of just fib rets. Once again you're just looking at the IPB itself rather than the location and other supporting confluences.

What I really mean is that for me, price action before the IPB is of a lot more significance than the price action around the IPB. Like I mentioned before I am honestly anticipating a trend change on the Gu here by virtue of that looonnnggg wick to the downside that occurred during news volatility, and with such a mindset I would rather get shot than take that tiny IPB.

The IPB itself was perhaps only as big as the bar before it, but compared to some other BUOBs and BUBs that constitute the recent up thrust it was certainly not an A+ take.

Again if you've found a way to trade "so-so" IPBs with acceptable win rate as per your requirements that's perfectly fine in which case you should be ok with a loss as Dan mentioned. I on the other hand have given my fair opinion regarding the setup as I was asked for it.

One other thing I have repeatedly mentioned regarding IPBs is that I tend to be very cautious with them, and take them only when they appear A+ in nature, and for what it's worth I may not even have to draw a ppz, or fib ret, or a pivot zone on my chart to verify the location.

In my book the judgment of a PA bar get's done entirely off of earlier price action. Wicks play a huge role for me as do trends and ranges. A fib ret lining up is always welcome but I admit many charts I post up here are diff to how I see them first hand on my mt4. They have to be "dressed" to make sense for the majority here.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #63,433
  • May 11, 2010 2:10pm May 11, 2010 2:10pm
AUDUSD

I4B if we close inside the previous bar
VBRN
150 ema

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  • #63,434
  • May 11, 2010 2:29pm May 11, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting fxprocessor
AUDUSD

I4B if we close inside the previous bar
VBRN
150 ema

A micro-view on the H1. That's what we expect on daily, don't we? Well, we shouldn't be surprised of an upward movement, it's all the same with these IBs though I'd prefer going down..
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  • #63,435
  • May 11, 2010 2:41pm May 11, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting ghous
Don't let this crowd out your learning process Cprao,

contact me via pm with any specific questions and we'll personally handle your concerns.

g.
Thank you Ghous. Appreciate your offer.
  • #63,436
  • May 11, 2010 2:47pm May 11, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting neutro
A micro-view on the H1. That's what we expect on daily, don't we? Well, we shouldn't be surprised of an upward movement, it's all the same with these IBs though I'd prefer going down..

I see a small dblhc on 4 hr. But will consider a break in either direction tho. If it does break I will consider a smaller than full bar stop if lower time frame PA gives me a hint.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #63,437
  • May 11, 2010 2:47pm May 11, 2010 2:47pm
I continue to examine that aggregation indicator, also tried it with PPZ where there is just a RN and not a BRN.

I know that it's looking backwards, but it looks like a nice setup.

1.44 which is a major PPZ on the EURAUD, price sliced that PPZ and we got a BIG BEOB on the 5H which engulfs 6 prior bars.

Nice trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #63,438
  • May 11, 2010 3:09pm May 11, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting fxprocessor
AUDUSD

I4B if we close inside the previous bar
VBRN
150 ema

I'm looking at that too but i'm wondering why your 150 ema is below and mine's above?
365 in green. 150 in yellow on mine.

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  • #63,439
  • May 11, 2010 3:47pm May 11, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting beebolbod
I'm looking at that too but i'm wondering why your 150 ema is below and mine's above?
365 in green. 150 in yellow on mine.

Attachment

Not too worried as I see these as zones. I am mainly focused on the VBRN.
  • #63,440
  • May 11, 2010 3:49pm May 11, 2010 3:49pm
AUD is making IB across most pairs. IB on AU, AJ and double IB on AN (on top of 1.25, but the 20p spread is killing me). I think AUD is in for a beating.
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