Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

#2,721
May 11, 2010 9:24am May 11, 2010 9:24am

Bouzies
| Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 33 Posts

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

I'm going to explain another indicator based techniques for those who don't have the experience in charting.

I call it " Buy dip, Sell High based on RSI extreme"

The concept: trade in the direction of the larger trend, buying into an uptrend and selling into a downtrend.

1-Look at daily chart and RSI (14) indicator, if RSI>50 your set up is taking Long if RSI<50 your set up is Short.

2-Look at Hr chart, when RSI<30 in Long set up ,take long...

Ignored

shahab8b

Thank you for this. I will have a look and try this technique for a couple of weeks to see how it works.

What kind of success rate have you achieved with it?

#2,722
May 11, 2010 9:26am May 11, 2010 9:26am

Bouzies
| Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Trader | 33 Posts

Quoting Oshawa

Disliked

Hi, Shahab. I just googled and downloaded that stop/reverse indicator v2 but there is only one line on charts, not like 2 lines shown on your chart. Would you mind posting your indicator?

I have an indicator called Blines_Profi that is similar to what's on your chart though, wonder what's the calculation behind your indicator. Could you explain? Thanks.

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Oshawa,

I found and tested the Level Stop Reverse v2 indicator here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=45232

The file is: MT4-LevelStop-Reverse-v2.mq4

I believe this is the same one that Shahab is using as I am getting the same display as he is.

#2,723
May 11, 2010 9:40am May 11, 2010 9:40am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting Oshawa

Disliked

Hi, Shahab. I just googled and downloaded that stop/reverse indicator v2 but there is only one line on charts, not like 2 lines shown on your chart. Would you mind posting your indicator?

I have an indicator called Blines_Profi that is similar to what's on your chart though, wonder what's the calculation behind your indicator. Could you explain? Thanks.

Ignored

The Red line is "Daily Pivot Indicator" , search it at FF search you'll find it. I've posted it couple of times so did the others.What you see on my screen is the one in which I got ride of daily S/R levels and only kept Pivot level.

#2,724
May 11, 2010 9:42am May 11, 2010 9:42am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting Bouzies

Disliked

shahab8b

Thank you for this. I will have a look and try this technique for a couple of weeks to see how it works.

What kind of success rate have you achieved with it?

Ignored

I don't have a precise answer for that. I assume it will give you 3 out of 5 right and with a RRR 1:1.5-2 you will be fine.

#2,725
May 11, 2010 9:51am May 11, 2010 9:51am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Gold, let's see if it's a double top, I'm short from 1217.5 & 1223.

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#2,726
May 11, 2010 9:59am May 11, 2010 9:59am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

A/U

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#2,727
May 11, 2010 10:29am May 11, 2010 10:29am

Patience
Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

Gold, let's see if it's a double top, I'm short from 1217.5 & 1223.

Ignored

Still spanking the market I see

I had an order at 1226 and I see it wasn't filled. Now I don't want to enter.

Rumours flying around that the talks between Labour and Lib Dems have collapsed and that Gordon Brown is to step down tonight. Hasn't been officially confirmed although one newspaper (Evening Standard) are saying he is going to. I see the £ had an instant reaction to that rumour.

Nothing worth having is easy.

#2,728
May 11, 2010 10:29am May 11, 2010 10:29am

Oshawa
| Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trader | 454 Posts

Thanks, Shahab and Bouzies. Yes, I found that page and the indicator too. Didn't realise the red line is pivot. Now mystery solved!

#2,729
May 11, 2010 10:42am May 11, 2010 10:42am

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting Patience

Disliked

Still spanking the market I see I had an order at 1226 and I see it wasn't filled. Now I don't want to enter.

Rumours flying around that the talks between Labour and Lib Dems have collapsed and that Gordon Brown is to step down tonight. Hasn't been officially confirmed although one newspaper (Evening Standard) are saying he is going to. I see the £ had an instant reaction to that rumour.

Ignored

G'dad Patience, I didn't know it might be bullish for Cable !!!

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#2,730
May 11, 2010 10:47am May 11, 2010 10:47am

Patience
Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

G'dad Patience, I didn't know it might be bullish for Cable !!!

Ignored

Yeah it is. You know how I said that Labour (Gordon Brown) was quite happy to continue letting the money slosh around to avoid a double dip whereas the Conservatives (David Cameron) were more concerned about getting the public finances back into shape. Looks like Cameron is going to be da man.

Nothing worth having is easy.

#2,731
May 11, 2010 11:04am May 11, 2010 11:04am

Tuner
| Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

Gold, let's see if it's a double top, I'm short from 1217.5 & 1223.

Ignored

Hey there Shahab...
Hope you are doin fine... as I followed the thread the last days you are doin pretty well

After my losses last week I reduced my trading a lil bit. hunted back some pips and starting the recovery slowly now.

Had a pending short for Gold @ 1225.5
Has not been filled by 1$ for now.

To enter manually now @ 1217 won't be the perfect entry I think.
maybe I'll wait for the bounce downward to start / continue and get on board later...

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"

#2,732
May 11, 2010 11:50am May 11, 2010 11:50am

Cdawg
| Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Trader | 476 Posts

Shahab, whats your feeling on the U/C, are you still inclined to go long?

#2,733
Edited 1:33pm May 11, 2010 1:13pm | Edited 1:33pm

shahab8b
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts

Quoting Tuner

Disliked

Hey there Shahab...
Hope you are doin fine... as I followed the thread the last days you are doin pretty well
After my losses last week I reduced my trading a lil bit. hunted back some pips and starting the recovery slowly now.

Had a pending short for Gold @ 1225.5
Has not been filled by 1$ for now.
To enter manually now @ 1217 won't be the perfect entry I think.
maybe I'll wait for the bounce downward to start / continue and get on board later...

Ignored

Hi Tuner, yea it has been fantastic, after the big E/U loss earlier last week I didnt have a significant loser in almost 25 trades, only a E/Cad.

As for Gold, set a sell limit at 1228 W.R1.

#2,734
May 11, 2010 1:40pm May 11, 2010 1:40pm

Tuner
| Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts

Quoting shahab8b

Disliked

Hi Tuner, yea it has been fantastic, after the big E/U loss earlier last week I didnt have a significant loser in almost 25 trades, only a E/Cad.

As for Gold, set a sell limit at 1228 W.S1.

Ignored

Sounds good!

Gold coming up again now. was the right decision for not to enter earlier I think. pending short @ 1228 would still be considered as the double-top then?
I'd keep my SL tight if I set it there. As the moves in Gold are still a bit "crazy" these days...

what you think of the Yen-crosses atm?
Got into a short A/J yesterday @ 84.30.. was @ +180 but strong retrace today. (seems to find the right direction again now

)
G/J even went up more with Pound gettin stonger. cashed in for +200 on that one already.

Still hard for me to figure out the moves these days.
After my losses last week I am not that confident anymore.

But I hope I will recover soon (account and mind )

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"

#2,735
May 11, 2010 3:19pm May 11, 2010 3:19pm

hutrader
| Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 648 Posts

Well, that 1240 could be nailed.

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#2,736
May 11, 2010 3:26pm May 11, 2010 3:26pm

hutrader
| Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 648 Posts

Looks like the bump, run reversal pattern on the daily. energy point at 1242 area.

Regards.

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#2,737
May 12, 2010 4:40am May 12, 2010 4:40am

Patience
Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts

Okay Merv, get off the mic, you're sinking the Great British Pound

I don't think the Sentiment Index is particularly helpful in this news driven environment but I'll post it anyway.

SSI: EURUSD Ratio Flips Following 37% Jump in Retail Shorts
Wednesday, 12 May 2010 09:14 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.02 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.35 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 26.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 37.2% higher than yesterday and 37.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 15.7% stronger than yesterday and 2.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

SSI Details:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 32.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 4.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.7% weaker than yesterday and 17.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.21 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 22.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.4% higher than yesterday and 21.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.0% stronger than yesterday and 18.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.85 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.86 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 27.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 13.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 22.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.18 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.75 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 1.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.4% lower than yesterday and 47.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.6% weaker than yesterday and 22.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.31 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.2% higher than yesterday and 5.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 20.8% lower than yesterday and 55.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 11.7% weaker than yesterday and 31.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.57 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.70 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.7% lower than yesterday and 33.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 2.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.2% stronger than yesterday and 6.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.10 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.7% lower than yesterday and 25.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 5.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.6% weaker than yesterday and 7.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

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