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Nanningbob 4H trading system

  • #1,621
  • May 9, 2010 6:29am May 9, 2010 6:29am
OK here are my figures for the last week. It was not pretty so here we go. If I had played the 6x6 cross I would not have been in many of these trades but I was taking entrances off of S/R lines which is ok except in super news stories. So I lost almost all my April profit. I will not be trading Monday and I make no recommendations. I will start Tuesday if I see some stability and the Greek loan thing is going OK. If you trade the EURO or GBP I would only do sells if you have a good reason too. Buys are way to risky in this market.

The following currencies seem to be the least affected by the news:
aud/cad, aud/chf, eur/aud, eur/cad, eur/gbp, nzd/usd usd/jpy
I do not recommend trading any euro or gbp because of news and elections. ENGLAND's elections are up for grabs and uncertain so the GBP could do anything unexpected and the euro is well down the tubes for now.

So look only at these for now:
aud/cad, aud/chf, nzd/usd usd/jpy

Funny how in OCT. 2008 the worse the news was the more the USD appreciated and May 2010 the worse the news for the EURO the more it depreciates. Love them fundamentals and their consistency.

My goal is to get back what I have lost and it will probably take 2 months. If I could have hedged all this I would have been frozen in at around a -3000 DD and that would have been recoverable. I will be leaving IBFX but I am not sure where yet. I never want to be caught with my pants down again where my only option is taking a big loss. I believe I could have fought my way out of this at a future date if I could have hedged this mess at some point.
TAKE PROFITS
MPTM 21 at +10 = +210
aud/chf +50 This one I could have made hundreds of pips on but I was bailing out of the market.
gbp/chf +286 12 MPtM
usd/jpy +52 4 mptm Another one I could have made a killing. I just dont play for 500 pip moves, dont even look for them. DANG.
CLOSED FOR LOSS
aud/nzd, -493 L2 -393 L3 -275 L4 -175
aud/usd -245
chf/jpy -338 -232 +70 6 MPTM
eur/cad never took
eur/jpy -184
eur/usd -275 -137
gbp/usd -486 -250
nzd/chf, -322 2nd L -243 3L -77 L4 +22 +50 11MPTM
usd/cad -216
usd/chf -504 2ndL -286 3L -131

OPEN TRADES


TOTALS
total for day -4522
for the week -4156
for the month -4156
Carry over 0
Primary trades
BUYS

SELLS

Secondary trades
BUYS

SELLS


OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy
aud/cad - aud/nzd this matc hes minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.
chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd
gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy
Alternatives: the aud/jpy, eur/jpy, are all similiar so choose one. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility but it will do long trends more. The most important thing is you dont want to be heavily investment into any one currency. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility. __________________
I no longer trade usd/sgd. It is going to 25:1 leverage, simply not worth using up that much margin for a slow mover like that.
  • #1,622
  • May 9, 2010 3:37pm May 9, 2010 3:37pm
Hey Bob,

Look at the bright side! I don't recall your carry over for certain (-2264?), but technically, you are only at current (-4522) - carryover (-2264) from previous week considering a mark-market review = 2,258 pips down!


So, considering you are only down really 2K +- or so right?

Not bad!

Easy to make up by end of the month!



---Just a side note, I am amazed at how well your system did when sticking to the traditional rules! I used a little bit of discretionary trading, but very little and the EA and standard system did quite well!!! See my signature! EA alone came back like 5K on FRIDAY!!!! I didn't touch a thing!!!!! (PS, my account says 10K total, but trading as 60K account (lot size impact) as that is my normal account, so I messed up when creating my demo account, but still in the game on both!)
We are our own best indicator.
  • #1,623
  • May 10, 2010 4:51am May 10, 2010 4:51am
Quoting nanningbob
I closed yesterday all my trades lost all my April profits and some of Marches. No need to post all that stuff. I am no longer going to trade with a broker that I cant hedge trade. Indicators are useless during super news stories and the NFA morons have made everybody vulnerable to giant market moves without hedging. I dont see a very good future, I see a market that is going to be news driven and I am not a news trader, dont want to be. The 6x6 probably will work in keeping you out of the market if it jumps like crazy but as you can see picking...
Hello Bob
I would say to you and all friends of the forum that you can work without problems of hedge-(you can place buy and sell positions at the same time)
I think you know one of the largest brokers in the world with offices in New York. It's called FXCM. (www.fxcm.com)
Recently opened offices in Italy - I opened an account with them and work without problems of hedge. Italian law allows it. The name is FXCM Italy (www.fxcm.it) and the telephone is 0039 0331 541 985 - You can call and ask for Mr Justin Paolini, who speaks fluent English and can help you to open the account. Indeed FXCM Italy allows U.S. citizens to open an account here and to work quietly, without problems of hedge. You can safely use the platform MetaTrader4 as I do.
I would like to ask you a question:
may activate an alert when the price touches the line gold?
thanks
Romano
  • #1,624
  • May 10, 2010 7:49pm May 10, 2010 7:49pm
One point of concern for me - the EU printed one trillion dollars - yet the eur/usd traded higher yesterday, only to fall again and close the gap.

I'm staying out of this one!
  • #1,625
  • May 10, 2010 8:20pm May 10, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting scottik187
One point of concern for me - the EU printed one trillion dollars - yet the eur/usd traded higher yesterday, only to fall again and close the gap.

I'm staying out of this one!
Only look for sells on the Euro for now. COT is all sell on that one with a record number of traders going short on the EURO.
  • #1,626
  • May 11, 2010 2:22am May 11, 2010 2:22am
Quoting nanningbob
Only look for sells on the Euro for now. COT is all sell on that one with a record number of traders going short on the EURO.
I disagree. Every deep dip below 1.30 is now a clear buy for me. This is some kind of QE but no one can beat the printing press of the FED in the long run.
  • #1,627
  • May 11, 2010 3:54am May 11, 2010 3:54am
Quoting Xaron
I disagree. Every deep dip below 1.30 is now a clear buy for me. This is some kind of QE but no one can beat the printing press of the FED in the long run.
That's ok to disagree and dont mind it. It keeps me on my toes, however, the USA is coming out, hopefully, of the recession (watch out for oil prices rising though) and the Euro is now beginning to face the underlying problems we faced two years ago. Greece is only the beginning not the end and in private correspondence with friends we have talked about when the EURO was going to get hit. There is too much underlying debt in too many countries for the Euro to get out of this that easily. You, I believe, are from Germany and you are not the problem country so things make look better to you than they really are. Anyway, I am not buying the Euro right now.
  • #1,628
  • May 11, 2010 4:00am May 11, 2010 4:00am
I don't believe that the US will come out of the recession that fast. I doubt they will hike this year, ECB will hike before. I still stick to that. The problems in the US haven't gone, we will see more QE there. Anyway this fundamental stuff is rather difficult so I think you have a very nice gem here with your system. Actually I use it as a base for my trading now. It's a nice addition to my BWILC style.
  • #1,629
  • May 11, 2010 4:59am May 11, 2010 4:59am
Quoting Xaron
I don't believe that the US will come out of the recession that fast. I doubt they will hike this year, ECB will hike before. I still stick to that. The problems in the US haven't gone, we will see more QE there. Anyway this fundamental stuff is rather difficult so I think you have a very nice gem here with your system. Actually I use it as a base for my trading now. It's a nice addition to my BWILC style.
I agree 100% with you, trying to trade fundamentals leads to no agreement. So I never really like discussing them much except I really watch the interest rate ones and the occasional super story. The rest become meaningless in my system. Far easier, but right now I am very cautious because I believe the market is being news driven.
  • #1,630
  • May 11, 2010 10:12am May 11, 2010 10:12am
OK guys I am going to be quiet trading wise this week. I am changing my broker to FX Sol UK. I had an account with them in the USA 4 years ago but I never closed it. All I had to do was transfer the account and the big thing with me is they will cut me checks instead of international wires. It wont cost me to collect my money. As you know most companies charge for the wire and then your bank charges you for the incoming wire. Too expensive. now i dont have that cost. I will let you know how it all works out but I figure it will take me a couple of days to get my funds from IBFX and then send them to FxSOL UK. See waht happens.
  • #1,631
  • May 11, 2010 10:27am May 11, 2010 10:27am
OK now here is my recommendations for trading pairs for now. If you look in the top left corner of the sixths EA, it will give you the distance from top to bottom. You can check to see which pairs are going wild and which ones are still tradeable. From this info I would choose the following to trade this week.
I choose these because you could stay within range reentering every 200 pips.

Under 800
usd/jpy, eur/aud, aud/usd,
under 600
nzd/usd, nzd/chf, eur/gbp, aud/chf, aud/cad

just over 800
aud/nzd, eur/cad, nzd/jpy, usd/chf

The under 800 would give you
aud, 4
cad 1
chf 2
euro 2
jpy, 1
gbp 1
nzd 2
usd 3
That would give you 8 pairs. I think that is too heavy with AUD so I would dump the aud/eur (dont trust the euro right now and would add the usd/chf or eur/cad. Until the market settles that would give you 8 safe pairs to trade in these crazy markets. Anyways that should do it.
  • #1,632
  • May 11, 2010 5:39pm May 11, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting nanningbob
I will let you know how it all works out but I figure it will take me a couple of days to get my funds from IBFX and then send them to FxSOL UK. See waht happens.
Hi Bob

Let us know how good they are. By the way I would like to remind everyone that a large number of brokers have rebate programs through introducing brokers, whereby you can get some money back on th trades you place. for fxsol.co.uk I googled and this site came out (http://www.cashbackforexusa.com/vw/t...K-Rebates.aspx). for Fxdd, forex.com fxcm, there are a large number of introducing brokers as well.

Kind regards
  • #1,633
  • Edited 6:23pm May 11, 2010 6:03pm | Edited 6:23pm
Why not just do ECN, then you don't pay extra... ?

ATC Brokers or FXOPEN seem to be the best in my opinion and they are much more efficient and interests are aligned with YOU!

http://www.fxintel.com/live/ - shows spread comaprisons

I have had a lot of problems with dealing desks. I have personally put through thousands of orders and get lots of 'requotes' and other types of errors. ECN's you will too, but not because they are competing against you!
We are our own best indicator.
  • #1,634
  • May 11, 2010 6:24pm May 11, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting bluemele
Why not just do ECN, then you don't pay extra... ?

ATC Brokers or FXOPEN seem to be the best in my opinion and they are much more efficient and interests are aligned with YOU!
ECN brokers still use MT4 and can do all the same shenanigins as any other MT4 broker. Nice advertising gimmick though. The back room, front room, no room doesnt change the software that is used to run the programs. Those can be set into the programming but still be announced that there is no dealing desk. Since you never get to see the prgramming you dont know what they are really doing. I noticed the difference in spreads between IBFX and FX Sol but there is also a price difference in what they are quoting as the now price. You can show that there is a lower spread price but all they have to do is adjust the quoted price to make up the difference. You are going to pay the spread no matter what broker you have. Again it is all an advertising gimmick. You do your buy/sell and price moves a couple of pips and then you get the trade or they have a buffer between what they quote you and the real price but you dont know what that is. That can all be put into the programming software and you think you are getting a better deal.
Why do you think everytime you enter a trade the first thing that happens is price sits for a bit during a strong move or it backs up against you a couple of pips right away. Once you make your trade they then can put your trade to the actual price and let it run only takes a split second. Used to wonder why every trade always went against me the first couple of seconds or for some reason my trade would pause before moving with a strong trend. It is all in the programming.
  • #1,635
  • May 11, 2010 6:27pm May 11, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting nanningbob
ECN brokers still use MT4 and can do all the same shenanigins as any other MT4 broker. that can all be put into the programming software and you think you are getting a better deal.
I agree with you. ECN is biggest con there is. you are better off with dealing desk.
Kind regards
  • #1,636
  • May 12, 2010 7:51am May 12, 2010 7:51am
Is there a way in Mt4 to get the 4 hours candles begin at the US close? My broker is alpari UK and the first candle starts at 1am GMT and i'd like the candle to begin at US close, that's 2 hours from my broker 00h. Is there a way to place an offset?
1
  • #1,637
  • May 14, 2010 4:39am May 14, 2010 4:39am
Has Europe's crisis killed the thread?
  • #1,638
  • May 14, 2010 5:13am May 14, 2010 5:13am
Quoting roachroach
Has Europe's crisis killed the thread?
The thread is very much alive, however, during such turbulant times trading this system is very risky. Bob advised everyone to hold their trades till the market has settled down, this may take a week a month or longer.

Kind Regards
  • #1,639
  • May 14, 2010 8:36am May 14, 2010 8:36am
Quoting astral77
The thread is very much alive, however, during such turbulant times trading this system is very risky. Bob advised everyone to hold their trades till the market has settled down, this may take a week a month or longer.

Kind Regards
Well this is quite dissapointing not to be able to trade this system during crisis. Maybe I'll trying using a different SL strategy, I mean not using 242 recovery system. I'll place S/L next to the daily SR and let MPTM save a few pips in case of retrace. I'll probably get less pips in a month but I'll be able to trade in any market conditions, and not have humongous losses that wipes whole monthly gains. Looking back at the charts, when conditions meet, price rarely hits previous SR after a 6x6 cross. And in case it does, well I'll just try to BE this loss with the next cross!
  • #1,640
  • May 14, 2010 10:06am May 14, 2010 10:06am
Not trading is trading. Sitting out of a news dominated market is a good strategy. We adjust to the market as it dictates and what it is dictating right is to sit and then go beserk at every news story. My system is not a news trading system. Now that the elections in England are done and the Greek thing finally settles, the markets will go back to a more normal moves. Actually after a wild market it usually just ranges for a while so trading should be good. I am hoping that the EURO GBP and CHF have all found their bottoms and tops and will begin ranging again. We will see next week.
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