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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,701
  • May 10, 2010 8:25pm May 10, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
My TFM method shows me a sell signal on G/U, let's see if we are getting a true signal , short G/U 1.4850 has been taken , will add at daily pivot re-touch at 1.4888, Sl=1.4950.

I need to add that the Pr of TFM success in E/U is about 66% , in G/U I've never calculated it but I assume it might be less than 50%, we need a RRR more than 1:1 to be profitable here.

For those who might ask about TFM, please look at previous pages, it has been explained with details in multiple posts.

Keep this EW count in mind #2649 as a possible scenario,and don't trade without SL.
  • #2,702
  • May 10, 2010 9:13pm May 10, 2010 9:13pm
Quoting shahab8b
It's not just fib or EW, I've been trying to show you guys the techniques I'm using by highlighting the levels I'm looking on the charts. Aside form the fib I don't need lines on those levels when I'm trading as I can see them on a naked chart.

I use different methods, like COT, Fib, EW, Div, LSR, Pivot, CS,S/R ,TL, Patterns ...
And we appreciate it, thank you shahab, I read and look at your charts daily, it's starting to sink in a bit.
  • #2,703
  • May 10, 2010 9:14pm May 10, 2010 9:14pm
E/Cad, long has been taken at 1.3050 sl below 1.30
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  • #2,704
  • May 10, 2010 9:26pm May 10, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting kimd
And we appreciate it, thank you shahab, I read and look at your charts daily, it's starting to sink in a bit.

Hi Kim, hope all is well, you are already there, I always enjoy your charts and your trades.I'm trying to help newbies make their own decisions instead of following others, at least it might save them from blowing their accounts in no time.The point is not speculation but setting the right order in the right place.
  • #2,705
  • May 10, 2010 10:10pm May 10, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting shahab8b
My TFM method shows me a sell signal on G/U, let's see if we are getting a true signal , short G/U 1.4850 has been taken , will add at daily pivot re-touch at 1.4888, Sl=1.4950.

I need to add that the Pr of TFM success in E/U is about 66% , in G/U I've never calculated it but I assume it might be less than 50%, we need a RRR more than 1:1 to be profitable here.

For those who might ask about TFM, please look at previous pages, it has been explained with details in multiple posts.

What strategy do you use to pick your stops? Being new to forex I can't figure out why you picked 1.4950 as a stop here. Do you pick stops based on technicals, Risk, or other. Thank you for your help.
  • #2,706
  • May 10, 2010 10:33pm May 10, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting Bouzies
What strategy do you use to pick your stops? Being new to forex I can't figure out why you picked 1.4950 as a stop here. Do you pick stops based on technicals, Risk, or other. Thank you for your help.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2072
  • #2,707
  • May 11, 2010 6:48am May 11, 2010 6:48am
Quoting shahab8b
A/J

Short has been taken at 84.57 ,will add at 85.32 sl=86.57

Closed 1st position at 82.62 (+195 pips) 2nd SL>B/E
  • #2,708
  • May 11, 2010 6:56am May 11, 2010 6:56am
Quoting shahab8b
My TFM method shows me a sell signal on G/U, let's see if we are getting a true signal , short G/U 1.4850 has been taken , will add at daily pivot re-touch at 1.4888, Sl=1.4950.

closed 1st G/U short from 1.4850 at 1.4750 (+100pips) SL>B/E for 2nd position from 1.4850 and 3rd from 1.4880
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  • #2,709
  • May 11, 2010 6:58am May 11, 2010 6:58am
hello,
how are u sir shahab8b

what about the gold ? sell or buy and what is the tb wait u'r replay
  • #2,710
  • May 11, 2010 6:58am May 11, 2010 6:58am
Quoting Bouzies
What strategy do you use to pick your stops? Being new to forex I can't figure out why you picked 1.4950 as a stop here. Do you pick stops based on technicals, Risk, or other. Thank you for your help.

Use LSR for you SL, 10-15 pips above that and change your SL when LSR changes
  • #2,711
  • May 11, 2010 7:03am May 11, 2010 7:03am
Quoting shahab8b
E/Cad, long has been taken at 1.3050 sl below 1.30

The trade cost me -50*2=-100 pips, that's ok, it happens .As far as we get 6 out of 10 right we are good.
  • #2,712
  • May 11, 2010 7:19am May 11, 2010 7:19am
Remaining Short Gold stopped out at B/E , Gold trade needs a strong heart, As far as there is a slim chance of a double top I'm betting on that. Short Gold has been taken at 1217.50 will add at 1225 SL=1240
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  • #2,713
  • May 11, 2010 7:25am May 11, 2010 7:25am
Hey Shahab

I am looking at a top on gold of 1253, do your charts agree with that? I have noticed that gold has a pattern of making a major down move every 7 quarters, has done for the last 40 years or so, Q3 is the 7th quarter so I am looking for a similar move to you, just trying to find the top.

Chart is monthly, green lines are quarterly highs/lows. Yellow are yearly, 1053 is the yearly highs. Due to the breakout and close above last years yearly highs it should reach this years highs. After that I see it moving down into the green lows in Q3. Any of this fit with your analysis, I have only just started trading gold so still getting the feel for it.
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  • #2,714
  • May 11, 2010 7:43am May 11, 2010 7:43am
I'm going to explain another indicator based techniques for those who don't have the experience in charting.


I call it " Buy dip, Sell High based on RSI extreme"

The concept: trade in the direction of the larger trend, buying into an uptrend and selling into a downtrend.

1-Look at daily chart and RSI (14) indicator, if RSI>50 your set up is taking Long if RSI<50 your set up is Short.

2-Look at Hr chart, when RSI<30 in Long set up ,take long
when RSI>70 in short set up take short

3-SL based on daily chart,use S/R or simply use LSR on daily for your SL , TP, try to keep RRR 1:1.5 or 1:2

Important note: remember dont buy on RSI<30 on Hr chart when daily RSI<50 and visa versa. on the chart it might seem attractive but you need to trade in the direction of the larger trend, don't use RSI to trade counter-trend.
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  • #2,715
  • May 11, 2010 7:49am May 11, 2010 7:49am
Quoting amyc
Hey Shahab

I am looking at a top on gold of 1253, do your charts agree with that? I have noticed that gold has a pattern of making a major down move every 7 quarters, has done for the last 40 years or so, Q3 is the 7th quarter so I am looking for a similar move to you, just trying to find the top.

Chart is monthly, green lines are quarterly highs/lows. Yellow are yearly, 1053 is the yearly highs. Due to the breakout and close above last years yearly highs it should reach this years highs. After that I see it moving down into the green lows in...
Hi Amyc, I think we might top at 1228, after that I think the next stop might be 61% ext at 1383. But you know you get those levels better than what I do most of the times .

On a separate note be careful with gold, It's a beast ,moves 200 pips in 5 min sometimes, and it's classic correlation with A/U and N/U and USDX is not valid atm.
  • #2,716
  • May 11, 2010 7:52am May 11, 2010 7:52am
Quoting shahab8b

On a separate note be careful with gold, It's a beast ,moves 200 pips in 5 min sometimes, and it's classic correlation with A/U and N/U and USDX is not valid atm.
I have noticed that, seems to move inverse to the euro not the dollar lately.
  • #2,717
  • May 11, 2010 7:55am May 11, 2010 7:55am
Quoting amyc
I have noticed that, seems to move inverse to the euro not the dollar lately.

Yea, we talked about this new phenomenon with Patience. I think they use it as a safe heaven if the equities crash again.
  • #2,718
  • May 11, 2010 8:02am May 11, 2010 8:02am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Amyc, I think we might top at 1228, after that I think the next stop might be 61% ext at 1383. But you know you get those levels better than what I do most of the times .

On a separate note be careful with gold, It's a beast ,moves 200 pips in 5 min sometimes, and it's classic correlation with A/U and N/U and USDX is not valid atm.
so open now buy ? and target 1383 ?
i'm open sell in 122.76 and enter tb in 1205.11 ?
  • #2,719
  • May 11, 2010 8:06am May 11, 2010 8:06am
Quoting dr.antaka
hello,
how are u sir shahab8b

what about the gold ? sell or buy and what is the tb wait u'r replay

Hi Dr. I think you've already known my answer. I'm betting on a double top but the confidence is not high.
  • #2,720
  • May 11, 2010 9:21am May 11, 2010 9:21am
Hi, Shahab. I just googled and downloaded that stop/reverse indicator v2 but there is only one line on charts, not like 2 lines shown on your chart. Would you mind posting your indicator?

I have an indicator called Blines_Profi that is similar to what's on your chart though, wonder what's the calculation behind your indicator. Could you explain? Thanks.
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