Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 607 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #12,121
  • May 9, 2010 11:25am May 9, 2010 11:25am
I attest to this fully.

I've studied forex trading like a MANIAC (Usually 8-15 hours a day) for almost 2 years and only most recently has there been a Profound difference in how I'm seeing my charts.


[quote=strat;3709838]
Quoting gaf

You will do if you keep at it and take it seriously.

It really is only experience borne out of reading thousands and thousands of charts and spending thousands and thousands of hours studying them.

There is NO SHORTCUT - you have to put in the effort.
Annoying Precision
  • #12,122
  • May 9, 2010 12:00pm May 9, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting swano
Hi i was doing some calculations of pivot point S/r on the EUR/CAD

this is what ive got

Weekly S1 1.3231...


FORGET pivot points!



You don't need them to make money! All you need is PASR.



Stop screwing around on the other threads and trying to find the holy grail and knuckle down on this thread. Start at page one and when you get back to where we are now in the thread you will laugh at what you are posting right now!
  • #12,123
  • May 9, 2010 12:06pm May 9, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting gaf
Hey Flem,...
First of all, good lad John, for making an attempt at this. If you don’t do this, how will you ever find out (apart from losing your account) whether you are doing it right or wrong.

The worst thing that can happen on here is that I will jump all over you and scream and shout at you – but that’s my style and after I’ve blown both barrels I’m a softie at heart. I only work with people who TRY and at least PUT IN THE EFFORT.

I have zero time for the trolls and lurkers who want free advice on their proposed trades etc



Monthly: zoomed out looks like we had an impulsive leg down (3 or C) from August 2008 to Jan 2009 which leaves us in no man’s land (looking for a W4, complex correction or a new impulse up blah blah blah) so what is price action saying? Last month’s doji above resistance has been violated and price has cleared 141.00 leaving the doji as an unconfirmed swing high.

WHAT? The April doji IS a CONFIRMED SWING HIGH

Go back to my post on SWING DETERMINATION and don’t make any more decisions on swings until you fully UNDERSTAND them


The previous up leg looks strong and rather impulsive while the current leg smacks of correction with its twists and turns.

So what is your CONCLUSION from looking at the Big Boss? Its no use looking at the Big Boss chart like you would the Sunday newspaper. You must look at it to give you direction (of some sort) for the lower time frames. Even if you look and say I can’t see what its doing or where its going – that is a conclusion and if that is your answer then move onto another pair.

TIP: Look at where the low stopped relative to previous bars – see if you can see it telling you something

Weekly: offers more information as the current downtrend looks messy and corrective however the 20 has crossed the 50down, price has closed strongly below 141.00 (confirming the prior weeks doji a swing high) at prior weekly swing resistance and at the 61 fib (for those fibbers out there). Price found a wack of demand at 130.00 an important multi year monthly support which chased the sellers up to the level mentioned above.

NO! Demand started at 134.50ish and was nowhere near a “whack” (were you originally a Scouser?) – just regular PASR

One must also note that this level is the 76 fib which is often a line in the sand for trend continuation.

78.6% ! GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!

KNOW and UNDERSTAND Fibonacci IF you are going to use it.

Daily: offers the possibility of a retest simply looking at pattern which could end up as a failure. I would be hesitant to sell into all those buyers as we may see PA for a long on a possible 3 or C wave up

So, you are an EW expert now? How do you know its Wave 3? Why not a sub wave of 2 or an extension of 1?

Prechter and Frost, the “so called” EW gurus, can’t count waves – what makes YOU think YOU can?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,124
  • May 9, 2010 12:55pm May 9, 2010 12:55pm
[quote=strat;3709965]
The worst thing that can happen on here is that I will jump all over you and scream and shout at you – but that’s my style and after I’ve blown both barrels I’m a softie at heart. I only work with people who TRY and at least PUT IN THE EFFORT.


Hi Strat,
I really like the way you talk to us. You are one of very few good people I have ever come across. Please keep the way you dealing with us, some times we learners say something just for the joke purposes but nothing else and we know you are a very sincere person by nature and we are learning a lot from you.
I can not say about others but if you give me one slap I will come back to you ask for one more and this how I am.
Thanks
  • #12,125
  • May 9, 2010 12:59pm May 9, 2010 12:59pm
[quote=simpleman;3710010]
Quoting strat
The worst thing that can happen on here is that I will jump all over you and scream and shout at you – but that’s my style and after I’ve blown both barrels I’m a softie at heart. I only work with people who TRY and at least PUT IN THE EFFORT.


Hi Strat,
I really like the way you talk to us. You are one of very few good people I have ever come across. Please keep the way you dealing with us, some times we learners say something just for the joke purposes but nothing else and we know you are a very sincere...
I agree
we learn by working hard
there are no free lunches
  • #12,126
  • May 9, 2010 1:17pm May 9, 2010 1:17pm
WHAT? The April doji IS a CONFIRMED SWING HIGH

Go back to my post on SWING DETERMINATION and don’t make any more decisions on swings until you fully UNDERSTAND them

Hung up on the monthly candle not having closed yet foolish mistake, wont' happen again.

So what is your CONCLUSION from looking at the Big Boss? Its no use looking at the Big Boss chart like you would the Sunday newspaper. You must look at it to give you direction (of some sort) for the lower time frames. Even if you look and say I can’t see what its doing or where its going – that is a conclusion and if that is your answer then move onto another pair.

 TIP: Look at where the low stopped relative to previous bars – see if you can see it telling you something

Big boss trend is down and the most recent swing low was taken out this week.

NO! Demand started at 134.50ish and was nowhere near a “whack” (were you originally a Scouser?) – just regular PASR

My mum was from London and many of my profs were English maybe I picked it up from them .

So no where near a "whack" because the PA didn't reverse into a hammer? The rejection is indicative of profit taking in the down trend? Or is this insight gained through more chart time? I don't' mind doing the work.

78.6% !GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!

KNOW and UNDERSTAND Fibonacci IF you are going to use it.

Dislexia 76.8 instead of 78.6 thanks for pointing this out!

So, you are an EW expert now? How do you know its Wave 3? Why not a sub wave of 2 or an extension of 1?

 Prechter and Frost, the “so called” EW gurus, can’t count waves – what makes YOU think YOU can?

Noted will not speak of EW again, probably my mind not wanting to admit to a year of wasted time spent on the subject.

Thank you very much for taking the time to check out my analysis. As mentioned in my introduction my long term goal is to manage my retirement fund in 5 years or so (I'm 33 now) I have no problem putting in effort I just want to make sure I"m doing it properly. Thanks so much!

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #12,127
  • May 9, 2010 1:30pm May 9, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting gaf
78.6% !GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT!
KNOW and UNDERSTAND Fibonacci IF you are going to use it.
Dislexia 76.8 instead of 78.6 thanks for pointing this out!
John

Can this be 76.40? or it has to be 78.60. Some people do it 76.4(100-23.6). I know 78.60 is a common practice but have forgotten the calculation how they arrived at 78.60.
  • #12,128
  • Edited 2:05pm May 9, 2010 1:56pm | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting simpleman
Can this be 76.40? or it has to be 78.60. Some people do it 76.4(100-23.6). I know 78.60 is a common practice but have forgotten the calculation how they arrived at 78.60.
Other than 76.4 being the mirror of 23.6 it has no meaning as a fibonacci number.
78.6 on the other hand is the square root of 61.8% (and 127.2% is the square root of 161.8% if you use extensions) converted to a percentage.
61.8 in fibonacci is considered THE golden number.

78.6 is more commonly used for stops. People who trade solely using fibonacci will enter at the 61.8 level and put their stop behind the 78.6 level.

I should add that 88.6 is a fibonacci number too. 88.6 is the square root of 78.6 which is the square root of 61.8.
0.618 x 0.618 = 0.786 (78.6%)
0.786 x 0.786 = 0.886 (88.6%)
Using that logic of course 94.1 is the next number.
I don't use 94.1 but I have seen some really good moves off the 88.6 level.
Interestingly in fibonacci 50% does not feature

Here are the important numbers I use and if you are using MT4 you may have to manually add them to your fibonacci tool to get them to show:
23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, 78.6%, 88.6%, 100%, 127.2% 161.8%, 261.8%
  • #12,129
  • May 9, 2010 5:29pm May 9, 2010 5:29pm
Quoting elitejets
Other than 76.4 being the mirror of 23.6 it has no meaning as a fibonacci number.
78.6 on the other hand is the square root of 61.8% (and 127.2% is the square root of 161.8% if you use extensions) converted to a percentage.
61.8 in fibonacci is considered THE golden number.

78.6 is more commonly used for stops....
Did you notice that the Dow stopped at 61.8% of its retracement of the first big bear drop two weeks back. And look what's happened since - golden indeed.

I don't use 23.6 personally but have like 88.6 (or 89) since someone pointed out to me that it was the secret fib number for forex. Not so secret any more
  • #12,130
  • May 9, 2010 5:50pm May 9, 2010 5:50pm
[quote=elitejets;3710067]Other than 76.4 being the mirror of 23.6 it has no meaning as a fibonacci number.
78.6 on the other hand is the square root of 61.8% (and 127.2% is the /quote]

Thanks Nicola,

I will change my number to 78.60 and also add 88.60 as well.
  • #12,131
  • May 9, 2010 7:27pm May 9, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting kiwi_trader
Not so secret any more
I actually got two messages saying "why are you telling everyone this?"
  • #12,132
  • May 9, 2010 7:41pm May 9, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting elitejets
I actually got two messages saying "why are you telling everyone this?"
OMG Nicola, now those fib numbers will be 'worn out' by everyone using them and they won't work anymore
  • #12,133
  • May 9, 2010 7:48pm May 9, 2010 7:48pm
Quoting elitejets
I actually got two messages saying "why are you telling everyone this?"
No worries, most don't really pay attention anyway!
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #12,134
  • May 10, 2010 12:09am May 10, 2010 12:09am
Quoting Flem26
I guess it's back to page 1. I don't have a clue what you're talking about as far as a weekly controlling bar is concerned. I assumed you meant the weak looking reversal bar from the week of February 28th. I don't see any other bars on the weekly bar chart that stand out besides that, a doji on the week of February 14th, and a bearish engulfing the week of August 9th 2009. Just a bunch of sideways chop to me. Again, my apologies. No need to grab a shotgun. Back to page 1 I go.
Hi Flem26,

I can't find a Boss Controlling candle either on GBP/JPY. Isn't a controlling candle one whose High/Low has not been taken out?

Last week's candle seems to be in control now.

Could it be due to a difference in feeds? Seniors, clues please...

Joining you on page 1!

Cheers,
Rajesh
  • #12,135
  • May 10, 2010 12:41am May 10, 2010 12:41am
Quoting Raje$h
Hi Flem26,

I can't find a Boss Controlling candle either on GBP/JPY. Isn't a controlling candle one whose High/Low has not been taken out?

Last week's candle seems to be in control now.

Could it be due to a difference in feeds? Seniors, clues please...

Joining you on page 1!

Cheers,
Rajesh
Because of the huge range in price and where the Boss candle closed everyones Boss candles should be the new controlling candle.
  • #12,136
  • May 10, 2010 1:34am May 10, 2010 1:34am
Monthly: Price is still being held down by the 20.The sell off was not able to break the low of the March BUOB. The trend is still down but i think you could make the argument to Dr. Joe that with a bullish close of the may candle prices have stopped going down.

Weekly: last weeks sell off stopped almost to the pip in the 88.20 area where there seems to be lots of demand for higher prices. The 20 and 50 are joined at he hip right now as price recovers from the sell off.

Daily: On the daily we are starting to see price make HH and HL's. Although the selling was quite heavy in most all pairs last week i think where a lot of them closed give us a big hint. Think how many long orders got stopped out and were cleared out of the market when this happened!! As Alexandra said last week as well many of these did not violate their current long term trends.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy05092010monthly.jpg Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy05092010weekly.jpg Size: 98 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy05092010daily.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #12,137
  • May 10, 2010 2:45am May 10, 2010 2:45am
haha....that would be to complicated for the "experts" to consistently implement
Quoting Lou
OMG Nicola, now those fib numbers will be 'worn out' by everyone using them and they won't work anymore
Annoying Precision
  • #12,138
  • May 10, 2010 9:44am May 10, 2010 9:44am
Quoting gaf
[b][font=Arial][color=RoyalBlue]WHAT? The April doji IS a...
So no where near a "whack" because the PA didn't reverse into a hammer? The rejection is indicative of profit taking in the down trend? Or is this insight gained through more chart time? I don't' mind doing the work.

Compare what you see/think is a “whack” to W/E Jan 30, 2009

Noted will not speak of EW again, probably my mind not wanting to admit to a year of wasted time spent on the subject.

Its our normal reaction not wanting to give up on something we have devoted ourselves to and spent a lot of time on. In trading, we have to be mercenaries and just keep the friends who help us. I doubt EW is your friend. I have spent more time on it than you and it is NOT my friend.

As mentioned in my introduction my long term goal is to manage my retirement fund in 5 years or so (I'm 33 now) I have no problem putting in effort I just want to make sure I’m doing it properly.

With this attitude you will definitely do it. I just wish those with the “Get Rich Quick” mentality would adopt the same attitude.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,139
  • May 10, 2010 10:13am May 10, 2010 10:13am
There are three important things to remember about Fibs

They are a SELF FULFILLING prophecy - the more people (especially the big boys) that use them, the MORE PRICE will react to them.

More important than any of the ratios is WHERE you pull your Fibs from. You can position your Fib points anywhere to TELL YOU THE STORY YOU WANT TO BELIEVE. Fibs must always be pulled objectively NOT subjectively.

Fibs are not gospel, they are just a tool. We use them to measure PRICE swings.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,140
  • May 10, 2010 10:38am May 10, 2010 10:38am
Quoting Raje$h
Hi Flem26,

I can't find a Boss Controlling candle either on GBP/JPY. Isn't a controlling candle one whose High/Low has not been taken out?

Last week's candle seems to be in control now.

Could it be due to a difference in feeds? Seniors, clues please...

Joining you on page 1!

Cheers,
Rajesh
I can't find a Boss Controlling candle either on GBP/JPY. Isn't a controlling candle one whose High/Low has not been taken out?

Last week's candle seems to be in control now.

Clues please...

Sherlock at your service!

S - I think this is a puzzle or some sort of conundrum, Watson, what say you?

W – He says “I can't find a Boss Controlling candle either on GBP/JPY”

S – Elementary my dear Watson, then he says “Isn't a controlling candle one whose High/Low has not been taken out?”

W – So he does know what a “Controlling Candle” is.

S – Steady Watson, steady! He only knows HALF the story. Taken out by what?

W – Right Holmes, see your point! So why then does he say Last week's candle seems to be in control now.

S – That’s the puzzle Watson, old chap! Find the answer to that and we will know why he answers his own questions!

Bluebottle – Ah, Neddy, he’s fallen in the water!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
14 traders viewing now