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  • #12,081
  • May 8, 2010 12:57pm May 8, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting Flem26
Here's what I'm watching for on old Geppy. Price is clearly below the 20 and 50 on the big boss and boss. That retracement on the big boss was so weak and reeks of bearishness in my opinion. I thought price had finally turned the corner after the March candle, but forget about it.

After lasts weeks drama, I'm looking to see if there will be a retracement to the 139.50 area. There we will have a 61 Fibo (if you take the April 26 high and bring it down to the latest low), the 50 ma, and support, which could possibly flip to resistance again around...
BEFORE doing anything, look at the Boss controlling candle. If you don't know what it is telling you, well, you already know the answer to that.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,082
  • May 8, 2010 1:04pm May 8, 2010 1:04pm
It looks like the pair is bottoming out.

WHY?

The WORKER has just closed above resistance at 143.34. Despite Euro weakness against USD it has managed to recover 300 pips from its low of 140.55 to close of 143.60.

SO? 300 pips on this pair is pocket change!

BOSS has made a very nice hammer at the close of Friday and unless it is bond hammer I would be bullish on the pair.

Depends on your understanding of hammer RELATIVE to EURAUD. Look to the left and follow PRICE back to Nov 2009 - look at all your "hammers" in between.
BIG BOSS is still in down trend but lets see how it goes in the remaining days of the month.

No "buts"

I am Dr. Joe short on this from, well, a long time, and I have absolutely NO THOUGHTS on closing my positions let alone taking a REVERSE position.

I cannot think "long" while I am "short"!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,083
  • May 8, 2010 1:19pm May 8, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Very interesting....
I agree that a sideways market is relatively straightforward, it is the setting of the targets in a trending market in the initial plan that I find difficult.

With this approach it will ALWAYS be difficult!

A TREND HAS NO TARGETS!

How do you put a target on a trend when you have NO IDEA what the big boys are doing/going to do?

Go back to Newton's Laws of Motions - Newton NEVER had any targets.

I have NO TARGETS for my EURAUD, EURCAD, GBPAUD and GBPCAD trades - I have NO IDEA where the bottom is.

Targets are for RANGE BOUND markets only.

Targets on trends leave WAY TOO MUCH on the table.

Don't even think of throwing "history" in my face - a TRENDING PRICE never took any history lessons.

AMAZING - you would die to get in a trend and then as soon as you are in it plan (target) when to get out. You have to be damn clever (I'm not) to use Fib targets in an efficient and profitable manner. Hell, even Larry Pesavento doesn't even know when to use 100%, 161.8% or 200% as a target.

But then, what do I know, I'm just a little guy!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,084
  • May 8, 2010 1:24pm May 8, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting tmanbone
This is a lesson I learned from Strat's thread with Alexandra's tutelage on how to spot a possible trend change, starting with a zoomed out view of the big picture. I wanted to share my lightbulb moment. USD/CAD Big Boss April hammer, sign of possible trend change. Weekly and daily in agreement. IMO this is textbook. See charts below, it's all self explanatory. Thanks and cheers all, I appreciate everyone.
Why did it take so long?

Big Boss to Boss to Worker

Each shorter time frame is just a FRACTAL of IT'S higher time frame.

Just look at how the Boss is just an enlarged view of the Big Boss

Similarly, the Worker is just an enlarged view of the Boss

Anything else?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,085
  • May 8, 2010 1:39pm May 8, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting strat
BEFORE doing anything, look at the Boss controlling candle. If you don't know what it is telling you, well, you already know the answer to that.
Price penetrated the low of the boss controlling candle but could not close below it. Potential double bottom on the worker.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,086
  • May 8, 2010 1:52pm May 8, 2010 1:52pm
[quote=strat;3708921]
Quoting swano
i use 6 monthly and monthly pivot points

but will be looking more short term to try make faster return

i.e monthly and weekly

i know fx street have a heat map
is pretty useful to look at

I have a much better one - its far more reliable, consistent and trustworthy. I don't need to search the web to find it or rely on others to provide me with (their, sometimes false) information.

[color=black]The...
I ll keep that in mind been, I d be foolish not to listern. I ve been r reading though most of your post today

Studied a few candles dlhc dhlc beob buob bueb beeb ib
what a hammer really is
and false ones
lightening bolt trades with hammers that kill the sellers stop loss

20 ema 50 sma 100ema

and how the price acts at thous levels
if in between the 20 and 50 at support and resistance

the size differences in pips from the 20 before a pull back


marubozo candles learnt too

a lot of info to absorb

I do apologise too i dont want to put people wrong, just trying to follow suit

I will get the hang of this

Thanks again for your posts.
  • #12,087
  • May 8, 2010 2:00pm May 8, 2010 2:00pm
Price penetrated the low of the boss controlling candle but could not close below it.

What?

Someone help before I find my double barrelled shotgun!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,088
  • May 8, 2010 4:04pm May 8, 2010 4:04pm
ok this is going to sound stupid but here it goes

ok ive been trading the eur/ aud as some of you know

my boss has a poster it says are you apart of the problem or part ofthe solution?
Its to help you think of the answer and help you come to a solution
so this is me answering the question to the problem and hopefully come to the solution.

Here i go.....eeek

ok the eur/aud
its been going down big time for a long while

its hit is month s1 and weekly support 1

so i think i could trade to resistance 1 on the weekly


BUT.......
ok i could risk it to resistance 1 and make a small profit

however the long term trend is down and id fell im betting against the market on a longer time frame

i would fell happier thou if this trade was at resistance r1 monthly and r1 weekly and following in the trend down

is this me answering my own question and i should wait till it hits it resistance and get in on the sell down again


or do i bet to go up on a short term bases just to resistance 1 because trhe price hit its s1 monthly and pass support 1 weekly?


this is what im think do a small risk run to resistance 1 weekly

then look to sell near its monthly resistance and follow the trend down


one thing i know thou is im bad at spotting reversals of trends

im good at finding a trend and jumping on board
  • #12,089
  • May 8, 2010 4:04pm May 8, 2010 4:04pm
Quoting strat
Why did it take so long?

Big Boss to Boss to Worker

Each shorter time frame is just a FRACTAL of IT'S higher time frame.

Just look at how the Boss is just an enlarged view of the Big Boss

Similarly, the Worker is just an enlarged view of the Boss

Anything else?
This took so long for me to figure out because I could not open my mind to the big picture. Instead of really trying to grasp the lessons, my mind was in tunnel vision, the "I want to make money now and I ain't waiting on any monthly candle", mode. Looking back at all the information I've absorbed over the past few years I've slowly but surely come to realize that I've let the lure of easy money guide my thinking. This lesson was a long time comming, a major turning point for me. I'm on track now.

Your "anything else" question makes me think I've missed something important. The demand area from 07, 08 possibly. In my excitement to type about my light bulb moment, I mistakenly called the Boss the weekly and the Worker the daily. Thanks Strat, thanks all
T
  • #12,090
  • May 8, 2010 4:11pm May 8, 2010 4:11pm
i know that reserval trading is bad very bad

been there done that

double bottoms triple bottoms and if your in it at the time that happens its bad

well bad

this Eur/Aud hasnt done anything like that thou just yet

thou in the back of my mind i ve got this 6 monthly 1.38 and 1.35 area of s1

it might reserve ( only possible ) it not set in stone

but it might do that at 1.40 a little higher

saying that thou i did not take these reading off the close as strat says so will go back and recalculate

im taking november to end of april months going off them.

think i might need to take 5

have a cup of tea and rest my small brain
  • #12,091
  • May 8, 2010 4:11pm May 8, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting swano
ok this is going to sound stupid but here it goes

ok ive been trading the eur/ aud as some of you know

my boss has a poster it says are you apart of the problem or part ofthe solution?
Its to help you think of the answer and help you come to a solution
so this is me answering the question to the problem and hopefully come to the solution.

Here i go.....eeek

ok the eur/aud
its been going down big time for a long while

its hit is month s1 and weekly support 1

so i think i could trade to resistance 1 on the weekly


BUT.......
ok i...
TRADING IS SIMPLE

You have made it so complicated I don't know which way is up and which is down!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,092
  • May 8, 2010 4:17pm May 8, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting strat
TRADING IS SIMPLE

You have made it so complicated I don't know which way is up and which is down!

i guess you are right

my eyes tell me its down
  • #12,093
  • May 8, 2010 4:30pm May 8, 2010 4:30pm
it is the fear of losing that is holding me back

and has complicated my mind

im still trying to find what kind of trader i am

what i usually do is just look at a trend

buy or sell

and just go with it

it works funny enough


its just im looking now at weekly

and monthly

want to make profit on a weekly time frame

want to learn to do this

Ive given myself targets and profits to aim for

but as you have said you can only take what the market gives you

so target levels cant be rigidly meet all of the time.
otherwise we all be millionaire by compounding in a year with £50 start off
yeah right!
  • #12,094
  • May 8, 2010 4:35pm May 8, 2010 4:35pm
I would fell happier thou if this trade was at resistance r1 monthly and r1 weekly and following in the trend down

is this me answering my own question and i should wait till it hits it resistance and get in on the sell down again

I personally would go with, "you've answered your own question". Your thoughts before the quoted sentences were counter trend. I've not found that taught here. I'd suggest a reread of how to indentify price action at support and/or resistance without relying on pivots. Study the lessons on how to identify horizontal S/R along with the lessons on how price reacts to the Boss and Worker 20 and 50 ma's. Cheers,
T
  • #12,095
  • May 8, 2010 4:37pm May 8, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting strat
Price penetrated the low of the boss controlling candle but could not close below it.

What?

Someone help before I find my double barrelled shotgun!
I guess it's back to page 1. I don't have a clue what you're talking about as far as a weekly controlling bar is concerned. I assumed you meant the weak looking reversal bar from the week of February 28th. I don't see any other bars on the weekly bar chart that stand out besides that, a doji on the week of February 14th, and a bearish engulfing the week of August 9th 2009. Just a bunch of sideways chop to me. Again, my apologies. No need to grab a shotgun. Back to page 1 I go.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,096
  • May 8, 2010 4:40pm May 8, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting strat
I agree that a sideways market is relatively straightforward, it is the setting of the targets in a trending market in the initial plan that I find difficult.

With this approach it will ALWAYS be difficult!

A TREND HAS NO TARGETS!

How do you put a target on a trend when you have NO IDEA what the big boys are doing/going to do?

Go back to Newton's Laws of Motions - Newton NEVER had any targets.

[color=black]I...

Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Good to know what your position is with regard to this discussion on targets. It is a bonus to learn what others are using in this regard and it is another "bullet" in one's trading arsenal.

By being a learner it is very important to understand how others are dealing with stuff like this, and certainly the way Lotuselanman and Patrick explained their approach to targets enables me to adjust my current way of trading. Especially considering having different accounts for different market conditions.

The way I have dealt with Fibs until now; when placing Fibs on to the chart, the numbers are already there so it was a way observing their placement. You have to be damn clever (I'm not) to use Fib targets in an efficient and profitable manner.
I understand that we consider Fib 50%, 61.8% and 76.4% - the last two
for a trend change - however I have no real experience in Fibs, even when I placed them on my chart I do not find them that helpful - it must be the lack of skill, shall I put more effort into this or not?

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #12,097
  • May 8, 2010 4:52pm May 8, 2010 4:52pm
this is my plan

im not trading the eur/aud
why ? Because

the trend is down and im not a reversal trader aint my style.
not up for fighting a whole army of bears

id wait till a resistance level is hit then sell.
and the teddy bears get there teeth and claws out again and chase the bulls away.

two

i trade as a usually do by just jum,ping on a trend and going with it but
on a weekly time frame id only do it if

everything is going my way i e the big trend, the weekly and daily

all same direction i.e resistance sell if all is down

support if all is up

at any stage if yo think im nuts
please say

anyway
strat read through your web page im on trading pshology
part

might need to read that a lot

but yeah hey its really cool learning from you

ive got a frender statocaster

learning purple hase hendrix
eric clapton
and sting police

thou you might not be into this but i love metallica

kirt hammet is proberly the best guitarist around to day well,
era

also got a westville acoustic £40 it cost
its awesome too

oh you should never give up somthing you love
a post before you said you put in down
no way man keep playing
  • #12,098
  • May 8, 2010 4:56pm May 8, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting tmanbone
I would fell happier thou if this trade was at resistance r1 monthly and r1 weekly and following in the trend down

is this me answering my own question and i should wait till it hits it resistance and get in on the sell down again

I personally would go with, "you've answered your own question". Your thoughts before the quoted sentences were counter trend. I've not found that taught here. I'd suggest a reread of how to indentify price action at support and/or resistance without relying on pivots. Study the lessons on how to identify horizontal...

cool I will do man

as you can tell ive done a bit more consideration to the trade
thanks for the post and your help much appreciated man
  • #12,099
  • May 8, 2010 5:00pm May 8, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Good to know what your position is with regard to this discussion on targets. It is a bonus to learn what others are using in this regard and it is another "bullet" in one's trading arsenal.

By being a learner it is very important to understand how others are dealing with stuff like this, and certainly the way Lotuselanman and Patrick explained their approach to targets enables me to adjust my current way of trading. Especially considering having different accounts for...
Fibs and how you use them are your personal trading style.

There are many successful traders who trade on Fibs alone.

I just use them for confirmation of everything else - they are NOT my prime tool - PASR is.

I've done my induction/apprenticeship on Fibs and am happy the way I use/don't use them.

Each trader has to find his own style and his own use of tools available to him.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,100
  • Edited 6:21pm May 8, 2010 5:41pm | Edited 6:21pm
quote=gaf;3708477] Quote:
Originally Posted by strat http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
...

You are doing good so don't worry. Maybe I should not have said that comment as it is not basic PASR.


I have had a sleepless night - your original reply to Gaf's post had me scouring the Boss and Big Boss wondering if I had really missed EVERYTHING in my reading of this thread. I am unashamedly a very slow (but I believe careful) reader and it has taken me 7-8 months just to read through the thread properly once. I really did think i was looking at starting at page one all over again. And, at the pace I read, that would take a hell of a long time indeed!

Strat, I'm going to use a Donald Rumsfeld here: "those of us who know that we don't know, don't know what it is that we don't know "!!! - and with some (very good) posters on here discussing trades that are outside basic PASR, it can lead to confusion.

I was in a long US/Yen trade and I learnt a lot last week:

First, I learnt that: "anything CAN happen "(whose signature is that?)

Second, I learnt the wisdom of your advice to "take some off at first resistance, to keep the "little people" happy." (I exited a third of my position between 94.6 and 94.9 and I am very pleased that I did not yield to the "greed gremlin" telling me to stay in with the lot.)

Third, and most important, I think I learnt that I still do not know how to manage a position properly in accordance with "basic PASR".

I will try and put a full analysis of my trade together and post over the next couple of days.
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