Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

I'm heavily short gold, sl 100 pips above the 1226 , if it closes above 1226 and invalidate my double top scenario and you don't hear form me, you will know the reason!

I guess you should do this kind of stuff in commercial section not posting it in other threads

I'm so pissed I never capitalised on this. Pop out for an hour and A/J drops another 500 pips! Thank gawd I wasn't loaded up long like last time although I have some soldiers still stranded out there so your A/J chart is frightening. I know we kept discussing that this was going to happen .... If this isn't enough to put people off trading forex, I don't know what is ....

I'm sorry to hear that. You know I've been saying that with a top in place in equities since last week risk aversion trades are perfect candidate.
short A/U N/U A/J N/J C/J and long U/cad. but I was wrong about E/U and gold as I thought Greece issue had been priced in and gold would fall in risk aversion like 08 , but I was wrong on both of them.

Thanks but it's cool this time - nothing that a little (or maybe a lot) of time won't heal I was only trying to catch retracements so they can sit out there as long as they like. I go by the saying it ain't a loss until it is realised. I guess there isn't much use to post the sentiment index because it was done at 5.08 pm GMT (before the next big drop happened) so I would say a lot of these traders were either S/L'ed or margin called.

SSI: Aggressive USDCHF Reversal Riles Retail Positioning
Thursday, 06 May 2010 17:08 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.13 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.47 as 71% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 25.5% higher than yesterday and 14.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 42.5% lower than yesterday and 22.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 22.9% weaker than yesterday and 20.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.84 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 15.4% lower than yesterday and 0.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 11.6% higher than yesterday and 33.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.9% weaker than yesterday and 7.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.53 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.9% lower than yesterday and 9.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.8% lower than yesterday and 39.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 12.1% weaker than yesterday and 14.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.56 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.20 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 18.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 21.2% lower than yesterday and 38.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.4% weaker than yesterday and 9.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 3.14 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.22 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 6.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 24.0% lower than yesterday and 39.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.3% weaker than yesterday and 5.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.15 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 17.1% lower than yesterday and 36.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.6% lower than yesterday and 42.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 15.0% weaker than yesterday and 20.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.78 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.43 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.3% lower than yesterday and 53.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 23.3% lower than yesterday and 57.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 15.5% weaker than yesterday and 0.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.16 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.9% lower than yesterday and 27.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.7% higher than yesterday and 22.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 7.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

That was unreal! Especially the crosses, with the EUR/JPY dropping 1000 pips since last night!

As far as USD/JPY goes, I can't believe all my shorts got closed (was hedging this pair on MT4) while I was at work and some longs got triggered that I had orders on below 90.000 (obviously I'm down on some of my other longs, but I'm not worried at all as I'm bullish USD/JPY longer-term btw and am hoping to benefit from tomorrow...

How are you positioned in this pair?

U.S. stocks suffered their worst one-day loss since February 2009 as worries about economic problems in Greece and Europe -- apparently combined with an incorrectly entered trade -- to set off a major panic.
The loss was trimmed by more than half, but the blue chips still closed down 347.8 points, or 3.2%, to 10,520. Sell-off caused by human error?

CNBC is reporting that a Citigroup trader accidentally hit 'b' instead of 'm' when he intended to type 'million' in a trade today.
Posted by Elizabeth Strott on Thursday, May 6, 2010 4:37 PM
Today's near-1,000 point selloff in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) was reportedly caused by a "fat finger" mistake by a trader at Citigroup (C). CNBC reported that numerous sources said that a trader entered a "b" instead of an "m" for million in a trade possibly involving Procter & Gamble (PG), a Dow component. The trader reportedly placed a sell order of $16 billion, instead of $16 million, worth of e-minis, futures contracts tied to equity indexes.

Citigroup told CNBC that it has no evidence of a bad trade but that it is investigating. P&G said that it was looking into the sudden drop in the price of its stock.

no position on u/j atm

Ya, it could go either way tomorrow... I'm going to be safe and close all the longs added under 90.00 since it's up around 90.50 now; better to be safe than sorry... I'm still holding the others for 97-100... this can take a long, long time though.

Thanks for posting the news out here. I was unable to understand why this devastating/amazing (depends on your position) drop happend.

Not sure there would be lawsuits.

This sounds like a typical cooked story from whoever. We all know someone got seriously benefited from this.

All these games they play and working class gets killed.
Its like that Pink Floyd song, " Us and them ".

How is it possible you have one person destryoing billions of dollars of trades. There has to be a safeguard against it.
Can Obama, all by himself press the button to Nuke chaos, NO, I don't think so. There are safety measures in place.

Oh well, I am long now USDJPY and in loss because of this so called "mistake".

Nasdaq to Cancel All Trades of Stocks Moving More Than 60%
By Michael P. Regan
May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. said it will cancel all trades of stocks at prices that were 60 percent above or below the last price at 2:40 p.m. or immediately prior.
The exchange operator said in a statement it will cancel all trades "greater than or less than 60 percent away from the consolidated last print in that security at 14:40:00 or immediately prior."
Nasdaq said it coordinated the decision with all other exchanges.

??? So, if you bought P&G at 45 the trade is canceled?

Three months up, three days down - it's a beautiful thing

Check out this video about stocks and P&G trade

http://www.learningmarkets.com/wall-...hes-a-bit.html

A/J

U/J

what about this for UJ

PS my charting has glitch, doesn't show the low

I don't agree with this. Ofcourse I could be wrong but I think this may be the year of the dollar.

when the dollar gains, the yen usually gains more. when the dollar weakens, the yen weakens more. (sometimes), basically the yen and usd are very similar..... i do think the usd and yen will gain more, but there may be a correction