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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,861
  • May 5, 2010 12:25pm May 5, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi Piccolo,
I think this has now move beyond a Greece issue and is an EU issue. Greece has moved from the problem to a symptom. The market is pushing the ECB around (and the EU for that matter) and it seems helpless to respond, at least for now. The Germans are now in control, and they have to be asking themselve what they will get as a result of bailing out the South. If the answer is not much or not enough, the whole thing falls apart. I think the banks just one aspect of what results when the thing falls apart, if it falls apart. History in...
The problem of Greece and the others PIGS is simple to understand,
from the year 1992 forward the people in Europe confused politics with economy.
In this way they forced the economic data with political will.

An economic union as it worked fine until the year 1992 is preferable
to the political union.
It was not necessary to create an unique currency
to create wealth for the citizens of the different eu. countries.

The problem is that the citizens forget many times
a fundamental question in front of the proposals of the sophists politicians:

Who will pay this? (And why?)

Rgs.

T.
  • #14,862
  • May 5, 2010 1:22pm May 5, 2010 1:22pm
Inserted Video


I like Jim Rogers and I like to listen to his viewpoint. Have recently been reading his commodity book and its pretty good.

Interesting reasoning for his long position for the euro "The market is so saturated with shorts I decided to go long" Contrarian baby .

God those commentators have to be the worse in the world at what they do. The conversation has no flow.
  • #14,863
  • May 5, 2010 1:24pm May 5, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting Setebos
mahes,
just heard about a 6,3 earthquake in Indonesia. I hope you and your family are OK.
everythin allrite here ,
not sure wer the quake is , but not at jakarta for sure ...
thanks setebos
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,864
  • Edited May 6, 2010 12:45am May 5, 2010 2:21pm | Edited May 6, 2010 12:45am
Oh , she's loud.
I sure not want get in argument with her. hahahaha

wow wow, whatever you say,hahahaha

Inserted Video
  • #14,865
  • May 5, 2010 10:11pm May 5, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting Setebos
mahes,
just heard about a 6,3 earthquake in Indonesia. I hope you and your family are OK.
wait there's an earthquake.. lol.. i didn't know.. anyway most quakes happen below java island coz there's where the plate tectonics are
  • #14,866
  • May 6, 2010 2:06am May 6, 2010 2:06am
if euro goes below 1.2690 then Jim Rodgers will be screwed, lol.

he can probably go to 1.1 without a big drawdown on his account.

long term we could see a historic bottom for e/u soon.
  • #14,867
  • May 6, 2010 2:15am May 6, 2010 2:15am
Quoting piccolo
if euro goes below 1.2690 then Jim Rodgers will be screwed, lol.

he can probably go to 1.1 without a big drawdown on his account.

long term we could see a historic bottom for e/u soon.
my gut says 2750 gonna hold for this session ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,868
  • May 6, 2010 2:38am May 6, 2010 2:38am
Quoting maheswara
my gut says 2750 gonna hold for this session ...
I got 1.2736 printed as low today. Buyers should be around 1.2690 if it holds. Could be a quick touch and go up. Maybe ECB will have something in the cards today that the market has not priced in yet.
  • #14,869
  • May 6, 2010 3:14am May 6, 2010 3:14am
Hello friends...
Now i tried what is really crystall-crash-balling....made $586 from $1550. Now i take it easy
I disrupted all rules and it was indifferent for that moments for me.

My experience from it is : It is not possible to trade succesfully, when the meaning of it is not defined. In other words : When there is stil the question "Why?" and universal "mind answer" is ...but why?... It is not possible to be succesfull.

But it will not be easy to get back that 1000... Imho it is the matter of attitude and the purpose is to find out good system and learn to double accounts in the short term.
Without pain, no progress.

Maheswara, i hope, that the earthquake in Sumatra is now over...

Good trading.
  • #14,870
  • May 6, 2010 4:21am May 6, 2010 4:21am
Quoting piccolo
if euro goes below 1.2690 then Jim Rodgers will be screwed, lol.

he can probably go to 1.1 without a big drawdown on his account.

long term we could see a historic bottom for e/u soon.
I thought Jim Rogers is temporary bullish on the USD ? That info I read is not the latest though but not too long ago. Funny just this morning before turning in I remembered Jim Roger's comments, and I thought to myself, damm this guy just made another truck load of money.
  • #14,871
  • May 6, 2010 4:23am May 6, 2010 4:23am
Quoting Fana
Hello friends...
Now i tried what is really crystall-crash-balling....made $586 from $1550. Now i take it easy
I disrupted all rules and it was indifferent for that moments for me.

My experience from it is : It is not possible to trade succesfully, when the meaning of it is not defined. In other words : When there is stil the question "Why?" and universal "mind answer" is ...but why?... It is not possible to be succesfull.

But it will not be easy to get back that 1000... Imho it is the matter of attitude...
Wow nice job fana.
  • #14,872
  • May 6, 2010 4:31am May 6, 2010 4:31am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Wow nice job fana.
Yes it is.... But i believe, that in the next round i will be better....
I am going to do big work about y psychological collapses...

I will write an article about it. One day, this will be history for me, so i have to write it now as exclusive knowledge, how crashes becomes....
  • #14,873
  • May 6, 2010 4:48am May 6, 2010 4:48am
psychology is the most tricky part, if possible, have a trading buddy to look out for each other, other wise this forum may work too.
  • #14,874
  • May 6, 2010 4:53am May 6, 2010 4:53am
Quoting Fana
Yes it is.... But i believe, that in the next round i will be better....
I am going to do big work about y psychological collapses...

I will write an article about it. One day, this will be history for me, so i have to write it now as exclusive knowledge, how crashes becomes....
Please return to the basics. Re-read this thread from the beginning with a clear mind. The market will be there when you are ready. (not sure about the euro, lol)

but please remember that your experience is not unique. If you write a book, a lot of people would buy it, lol.
  • #14,875
  • May 6, 2010 5:05am May 6, 2010 5:05am
Quoting piccolo
The market will be there when you are ready. (not sure about the euro, lol)
Maybe gonna trade Chief's Dollar/Denmark
  • #14,876
  • May 6, 2010 5:06am May 6, 2010 5:06am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
I thought Jim Rogers is temporary bullish on the USD ? That info I read is not the latest though but not too long ago. Funny just this morning before turning in I remembered Jim Roger's comments, and I thought to myself, damm this guy just made another truck load of money.
I just watched that show. He is long dollar and long euro. He also said that he is the worst short term trader and market timer, so I guess it is for the long haul. He might be betting against Asia, who knows.

Or maybe he is using "THE SPIRAL"

Unfortunately I cannot comment much on the spiral within spiral.. my mind is blank on this subject. So far it looks like something tied with multiple pair trading and money manegement.
  • #14,877
  • May 6, 2010 5:13am May 6, 2010 5:13am
Quoting piccolo
I just watched that show. He is long dollar and long euro. He also said that he is the worst short term trader and market timer, so I guess it is for the long haul. He might be betting against Asia, who knows.

Or maybe he is using "THE SPIRAL"

Unfortunately I cannot comment much on the spiral within spiral.. my mind is blank on this subject. So far it looks like something tied with multiple pair trading and money manegement.
Oh...just speculating. Based on those comments, then the long dollars is probably a hedge for the short term volatility, and maybe to make a quick buck as well. If I bump into him in the streets I will ask him .

Oh ya...spirals...well well...very enticing but very sad for me....
  • #14,878
  • May 6, 2010 5:14am May 6, 2010 5:14am
Quoting imjscn
Maybe gonna trade Chief's Dollar/Denmark
You can trade USD/DKK right now since Denmark is not in the Euro Zone

or did you mean USD/DEM (Deutsche Mark)?
  • #14,879
  • May 6, 2010 5:18am May 6, 2010 5:18am
Jim Rogers is a cool guy, I like listening to his interviews, although I don't make calls besed on his analysis of the market. I remember the peak of the EUR/USD bull trend, when he was saying in every interview that he is long USD, while everybody else was talking about the end of USD as a reserve currency and probably the end of USD . He is again contrarian to the overall trend. His timing usually is not perfect but I gues his deep pockets make up for that.
Maybe he waits the media to start forecasting and talking about the end of a major currency and then he starts buying it
  • #14,880
  • May 6, 2010 5:20am May 6, 2010 5:20am
Quoting MyTbo
Jim Rogers is a cool guy, I like listening to his interviews, although I don't make calls besed on his analysis of the market. I remember the peak of the EUR/USD bull trend, when he was saying in every interview that he is long USD, while everybody else was talking about the end of USD as a reserve currency and probably the end of USD . He is again contrarian to the overall trend. His timing usually is not perfect but I gues his deep pockets make up for that.
Maybe he waits the media to start forecasting and talking about the end of a major currency...
I like him too, and he always makes fun of the media and the forecasting they do, lol.

Market looks sideways for the bid rate anouncement.

Update: SNB has released its grip.. that could be an indicator that euro is doomed. Time to be nimble.
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