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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,841
  • May 5, 2010 8:22am May 5, 2010 8:22am
Quoting auxesis
something is going on as we speak
I took a long position at 1.2815 with a tight stop in mind with that in mind. Square on all short trades and cheering the ECB. I'm a pip wh**e.

Edit: Hit my limit and an square on that long now. On the sidelines and watching in amazement.
  • #14,842
  • May 5, 2010 8:23am May 5, 2010 8:23am
Quoting GEfx
I took a long position at 1.2815 with a tight stop in mind with that in mind. Square on all short trades and cheering the ECB. I'm a pip wh**e.
I don't think it was the ECB, but someone is stepping in, see if it holds, one more round of news out at the top of the hour.
  • #14,843
  • May 5, 2010 8:35am May 5, 2010 8:35am
Quoting auxesis
I don't think it was the ECB, but someone is stepping in, see if it holds, one more round of news out at the top of the hour.
Yep, I agree. No ecb yet. Waiting for an entry now.
  • #14,844
  • Edited 8:53am May 5, 2010 8:40am | Edited 8:53am
tic activity off the charts at the turn

8 minutes till the ism #'s buckle up everyone.
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  • #14,845
  • May 5, 2010 9:09am May 5, 2010 9:09am
Reuters quoting "Official buying from Eastern European and quasi official names"
  • #14,846
  • May 5, 2010 9:13am May 5, 2010 9:13am
I feel like I should send a "Thank You" note to someone.
  • #14,847
  • May 5, 2010 9:33am May 5, 2010 9:33am
A strong support expected in EURUSD as we noticed a dead cat type bounce in it already though swing remains down biased, a small corrective bounce or consolidation cant be totally ruled out, but why gold is on intact over all bullishness even if $ index is bullish, any one can explain current situation on this please
  • #14,848
  • May 5, 2010 9:36am May 5, 2010 9:36am
Quoting amarfx
A strong support expected in EURUSD as we noticed a dead cat type bounce in it already though swing remains down biased, a small corrective bounce or consolidation cant be totally ruled out, but why gold is on intact over all bullishness even if $ index is bullish, any one can explain current situation on this please
Why is gold strong when the $ is climbing? Is that what he's asking?
  • #14,849
  • May 5, 2010 9:39am May 5, 2010 9:39am
Quoting auxesis
Why is gold strong when the $ is climbing? Is that what he's asking?
I think so...
  • #14,850
  • May 5, 2010 9:41am May 5, 2010 9:41am
I think so, anyway that is the same question I have . I dare not conclude anything though. Peter Schiff said something about that in his latest vlog, if I rem correctly.
  • #14,851
  • May 5, 2010 9:48am May 5, 2010 9:48am
Quoting GEfx
I think so...
Imho, all currency values are being seen falling against Gold, doesn't matter if the Dollar index is rising, that just means the dollar isn't falling as fast against the gold stuff as others.

Not boding well for recovery.

To sum it all up, Fiat currencies aren't worth the paper they are printed on, and people are waking up to that fact.
  • #14,852
  • May 5, 2010 10:09am May 5, 2010 10:09am
Let me take a crack at the gold question. The euro is in the process of crashing. As euro falls in relationship to dollar (and yen, etc), Europeans will find gold getting very expensive. However, the US economy is not involved in the euro crash, and dollar is the safe haven. Gold against the dollar, the yen, etc should be little impacted at least in the short term. The markets are trying to figure out if this is the end of the euro and the EU. No need for all markets to panic.
  • #14,853
  • May 5, 2010 10:19am May 5, 2010 10:19am
look at eur/chf.

SNB must be buying euros for a while now..
  • #14,854
  • May 5, 2010 10:19am May 5, 2010 10:19am
Quoting auxesis
Imho, all currency values are being seen falling against Gold, doesn't matter if the Dollar index is rising, that just means the dollar isn't falling as fast against the gold stuff as others.

Not boding well for recovery.

To sum it all up, Fiat currencies aren't worth the paper they are printed on, and people are waking up to that fact.
I think that is true for the euro. Not sure why anyone would have confidence in that currency now, until they correct their structural problems. That means that Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc have to endure pain by cutting spending, and German tax payers have to pay much more taxes to bail out the South. If either of those two is missing, the whole thing will cave in. QE will kick the can down the road for a while, but the problems will still exist, and the markets know it now. As long as the markets have you in their sights, you are in trouble.

LOL -- wow, is that doomsday forcasting or what. Makes me sound like a big brain or something -- lol. What ever happens, there will be plenty of trades to make. Turn off the thinking and get to flowing with the market.
  • #14,855
  • May 5, 2010 11:15am May 5, 2010 11:15am
Quoting GEfx
I think that is true for the euro. Not sure why anyone would have confidence in that currency now, until they correct their structural problems. That means that Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc have to endure pain by cutting spending, and German tax payers have to pay much more taxes to bail out the South. If either of those two is missing, the whole thing will cave in. QE will kick the can down the road for a while, but the problems will still exist, and the markets know it now. As long as the markets have you in their sights, you are in trouble....
Doomsday would be if Greece defaults and we get a bank run in whole Europe which will spread in the whole world in matter of days.

I guess everybody will try to avoid that since most countries can't afford a second liquidity crysis.. including the US.
  • #14,856
  • Edited 11:44am May 5, 2010 11:26am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting piccolo
Doomsday would be if Greece defaults and we get a bank run in whole Europe which will spread in the whole world in matter of days.

I guess everybody will try to avoid that since most countries can't afford a second liquidity crysis.. including the US.
Couldn't agree more. Fiat money or not, there are limits to everything.
Hat off to ECB for letting the market do its thing instead of slapping "the invisible hand". My personal opinion.

P.S. Unlike the SNB, as it seems, LOL

Edit: you may wanna have a look at this - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how...-and-3m-ecb-re
  • #14,857
  • May 5, 2010 11:48am May 5, 2010 11:48am
mahes,
just heard about a 6,3 earthquake in Indonesia. I hope you and your family are OK.
  • #14,858
  • May 5, 2010 11:57am May 5, 2010 11:57am
Quoting piccolo
Doomsday would be if Greece defaults and we get a bank run in whole Europe which will spread in the whole world in matter of days.

I guess everybody will try to avoid that since most countries can't afford a second liquidity crysis.. including the US.
Hi Piccolo,
I think this has now move beyond a Greece issue and is an EU issue. Greece has moved from the problem to a symptom. The market is pushing the ECB around (and the EU for that matter) and it seems helpless to respond, at least for now. The Germans are now in control, and they have to be asking themselve what they will get as a result of bailing out the South. If the answer is not much or not enough, the whole thing falls apart. I think the banks just one aspect of what results when the thing falls apart, if it falls apart. History in the making.
  • #14,859
  • May 5, 2010 12:09pm May 5, 2010 12:09pm
This saga....UK don't look so bad now eh ? LOL
  • #14,860
  • May 5, 2010 12:19pm May 5, 2010 12:19pm
ECB announces interest rate tomorrow, followed by press conference by Trichet. Should be interesting.
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