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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,561
  • May 5, 2010 5:40pm May 5, 2010 5:40pm
Quoting AlwaysLearn
EJ and EU still on bear trend.

One question to ask: Do you ever feel afraid to pull the trigger even after a clear signal is shown if you have experienced a series of losing trades?
Absolutely, I just got done making 3 losing trades last wk and I had trouble pulling the trigger on the 4th. However, I knew that it was an unjustified emotion, and as Nike advertising would tell you...Just do it. For me, Forex is just a battle of emotions more than anything else. Forex just creates an environment for bettering yourself and controlling your emotion though practice and eventually having the confidence in yourself.
Raymond
  • #22,562
  • May 5, 2010 7:41pm May 5, 2010 7:41pm
Morning star forming on EJ. Getting impatient to place another long trade. Have to control. Bulls are still weak.
  • #22,563
  • May 5, 2010 8:37pm May 5, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting Morelands
Absolutely, I just got done making 3 losing trades last wk and I had trouble pulling the trigger on the 4th. However, I knew that it was an unjustified emotion, and as Nike advertising would tell you...Just do it. For me, Forex is just a battle of emotions more than anything else. Forex just creates an environment for bettering yourself and controlling your emotion though practice and eventually having the confidence in yourself.
Raymond
Thanks for your reply. Will keep that in mind. So far, I have not faced that situation yet because I am still demo trading. Even then, one loss already made me think twice before pulling the trigger.
  • #22,564
  • May 5, 2010 11:20pm May 5, 2010 11:20pm
EU and EJ going down strongly. Any one still in short trade of either pair?
  • #22,565
  • May 5, 2010 11:35pm May 5, 2010 11:35pm
Quoting AlwaysLearn
EJ and EU still on bear trend.

One question to ask: Do you ever feel afraid to pull the trigger even after a clear signal is shown if you have experienced a series of losing trades?
oh yes. unfortunately the more losing trades I make the more I fear my entry. the more winning trades I make the more light hearted I enter. theoretically one should base ones entries competely on the system rules and exclude emotions ... but it's a long way to accomplish this.
I agree to Raymond, forex or charting is a field where we can improve our sight of what is, leaving disturbing emotions aside.
  • #22,566
  • Edited May 6, 2010 4:48am May 5, 2010 11:46pm | Edited May 6, 2010 4:48am
gu has reached my first marker @1,5050. I have reduced the sl to 1,5153.
not be yet, so I still give the trade some space around the range tl.

not sure if the downside momentum has been gained yet

actually I see a macd pricedivergence ... so I will set the sl to be after candle close

edit:
since the price went well through 1,5050 to 1,5020, I have set sl be

edit:
at candle close the divergence persists. I closed half the position @1,5055 and let the other half run

edit:
other half hit sl be
Attached Image
  • #22,567
  • May 6, 2010 12:18am May 6, 2010 12:18am
Quoting ira
Never trade CT's, it is like standing in front of the running train. It will never stop, it will just smash you. CT's may be taken when there are real signs that the trend is weakening.
I totally agree with Ira. By reading many posts here I think it is important to emphasize that this is not a mathematical strategy, but its purpose is to ride the tide of the trend. With this in mind there may be only a good counter trend with a round bottom or top at the reversal of the trend and the chances that you catch it are very slim. Better stick to trade TC's that are much more common.
  • #22,568
  • Edited 1:41am May 6, 2010 12:38am | Edited 1:41am
My candle closes in 20 minutes time. No good signals found. Long tail on current candle on EU and EJ. May signal big players movement.

Edit: My analysis of current situation is that the tide is turning. Big players are buying now to push Euro up again, as signified by the large tail on previous candle and the movement of current candle. Also, price has reached new lows but the MACD has not, showing a sign of bears weakening. Just my thoughts. Comments?
  • #22,569
  • May 6, 2010 1:38am May 6, 2010 1:38am
It looks like the pullback is finally here.
  • #22,570
  • May 6, 2010 1:40am May 6, 2010 1:40am
Quoting ashes
gu has reached my first marker @1,5050. I have reduced the sl to 1,5153.
not be yet, so I still give the trade some space around the range tl.

not sure if the downside momentum has been gained yet

actually I see a macd pricedivergence ... so I will set the sl to be after candle close

edit:
since the price went well through 1,5050 to 1,5020, I have set sl be
Thanks for sharing your trades with us. I am glad you are posting here.
  • #22,571
  • Edited 3:35am May 6, 2010 2:19am | Edited 3:35am
Quoting xeneric
Thanks for sharing your trades with us. I am glad you are posting here.
you're welcome, Xeneric, we're here to help each other become better traders. I need help, that's why I post my trades open to corrections. and I also apprechiate trades posted by others.
  • #22,572
  • May 6, 2010 2:26am May 6, 2010 2:26am
Quoting AlwaysLearn
My candle closes in 20 minutes time. No good signals found. Long tail on current candle on EU and EJ. May signal big players movement.

Edit: My analysis of current situation is that the tide is turning. Big players are buying now to push Euro up again, as signified by the large tail on previous candle and the movement of current candle. Also, price has reached new lows but the MACD has not, showing a sign of bears weakening. Just my thoughts. Comments?
Bulls can't maintain control. Bears are pushing the price down again. Looking forward to candle close 2hrs 30 mins later.
  • #22,573
  • May 6, 2010 3:00am May 6, 2010 3:00am
Quoting saka
hi, everyone

EU is approaching an important support line which formed from subprime crisis and later, I think price would be supported at this level with a consolidation period before cracking down to 1.27 level.

From fundermental anaysis. 7 years big cyclical period of bearish dollar was finished at 2008, maybe dolloar will start another 7-year bullish trend.
good point, Saka, thank you. longterm it sure seems like the up cycle of eu is about to end. I'll be looking for a 4h ct / bounce from that trendline, maybe by next week. a macd pricedivergence setup would be nice ....
  • #22,574
  • May 6, 2010 3:27am May 6, 2010 3:27am
Quoting ashes
good point, Saka, thank you. longterm it sure seems like the up cycle of eu is about to end. I'll be looking for a 4h ct / bounce from that trendline, maybe by next week. a macd pricedivergence setup would be nice ....
Hi Ashes,

Can you show us how your chart looks like for EU with the trendline you mentioned?
  • #22,575
  • May 6, 2010 3:32am May 6, 2010 3:32am
Quoting silverfox88
Hi Ashes,

Can you show us how your chart looks like for EU with the trendline you mentioned?
sure. here it is.
you find Saka's chart here :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=22533
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,576
  • May 6, 2010 3:48am May 6, 2010 3:48am
Quoting ashes
sure. here it is.
you find Saka's chart here :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=22533
Hi Ashes,

Thank you for your chart. Its good to learn from you guys. So the price is resting at the trendline now and some tails is starting to appear in H4.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #22,577
  • May 6, 2010 4:30am May 6, 2010 4:30am
concerning my gu short trade which with one half is still active I want to share why I think that my entry wasn't the best one.

I took the short yesterday ( red arrow ) assuming a trendcontinuation after the break of the lower range tl (white). as I stated in my post when taking the trade I wasn't very happy about the large candle. due to the large candle I have had to place a sl of about 100 pips and I have had to search for tp levels or markers far away to justify a good rr. I risked the entry anyway hoping for trendcontinuation. so this trade was risky and I'm lucky having erased the possibility of a loss now.

a much better entry would have been today (yellow arrow) @1,5109. the pice has formed a trendcontinuation with a bounce off the 8ema. in this case I would probably have placed the sl at around the 21ema = 60 pips = r. with a tp at around 1,5005 just before a very round number. at + 1,5r I would have set the sl to +1r which would have been hit.

the red trade did not offer a very good risk reward ratio so I have had to search for the markers.
the yellow trade would have offered a much better risk reward ratio and a straighter riskmanagement and a solid profit.

unfortunately, that signal candle closed when I was sound asleep
Attached Image
  • #22,578
  • Edited 8:02am May 6, 2010 7:46am | Edited 8:02am
Saw some tails around EMA21 in GBPUSD H1 and guess there might be a TC and went in. Now +70 pips. Still riding and might tp soon.

Edit: Close my position at 14965 with +85 pips. That's all for me this week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.tpl.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #22,579
  • May 6, 2010 8:45am May 6, 2010 8:45am
Quoting ashes
oh yes. unfortunately the more losing trades I make the more I fear my entry. the more winning trades I make the more light hearted I enter. theoretically one should base ones entries competely on the system rules and exclude emotions ... but it's a long way to accomplish this.
I agree to Raymond, forex or charting is a field where we can improve our sight of what is, leaving disturbing emotions aside.
'theoretically one should base ones entries competely on the system rules and exclude emotions'

Ashes, I know it is not what you mean; But newbie may take it as 'one should always follow the system, no matter what', which is a dangerous thought.

To exclude emotion, one needs to be rational.
When facing consecutive loss, one needs to figure out what went wrong (this takes experience) as no systems work on all occasions. I have seen EA makes 60 times return in the first three years of back-testing and then it starts a profit down trend for the following years.

It might not be a bad idea to stop live trading and use demo trade when facing consecutive loss until one figures out what went wrong or when the situation improves.

It is more important to conserve the capital than to continue trading.

davidwu61
  • #22,580
  • May 6, 2010 8:48am May 6, 2010 8:48am
Quoting ashes
oh yes. unfortunately the more losing trades I make the more I fear my entry. the more winning trades I make the more light hearted I enter. theoretically one should base ones entries competely on the system rules and exclude emotions ... but it's a long way to accomplish this.
I agree to Raymond, forex or charting is a field where we can improve our sight of what is, leaving disturbing emotions aside.
this was posted sometime ago elsewhere..might be relevant to you


A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time of late when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you don't have one?"
He didn't think it was necessary, which was his first mistake. It is critical to keep a trading journal.
In my journal I ask myself everyday "Did I follow my trading plan properly? Did I do anything wrong and if so, why?" If I did follow my plan correctly but I lost money, I am not hard on myself. Sometimes this happens! If I didn't follow my rules but still made money, however, that's a problem.
I highlight these days so I never repeat this fatal flaw. One of the worst things you can do is ignore your rules and make money, because then you feel that "winging it" is a good plan. It is not.

If this happens, you have to ask yourself; "Why didn't I follow my rules?" Was it lack of confidence in the system? Fear? Or did my ego want to be the hero that sold the high?"

If you lack confidence in a system, paper-trade it religiously and keep a massive amount of statistics on the outcomes. Be honest with each trade and if the results are good, immediately ban all second-guesses.
If you are playing blackjack and the dealer has a six showing while you were dealt a ten & a nine for nineteen, would you HIT IT because "maybe this time the dealer won't bust!?" Of course you wouldn't! You know that the long-term outcome of that decision would be certain disaster.
It is the same with trading: don't question a trade if the statistics show it's a winner over the long term.

Fear also exists when a trader doesn't believe in his system yet. Or it may just be the fear of being wrong, which is another ego-based problem. You have to let go of being right. Trading is about probabilities and making money; not about being right or wrong.

I've found that traders who used ego-base decisions to mess with their system or break their rules added little to no value to their trading. In fact it almost always hurts more than it helps. Trading for ego satisfaction is not a good idea, because your ego risks getting damaged during a rough trading patch.
I like to go back and look at my trades over the last week; the last month, to see how they performed. Am I repeating my mistakes? If I bought or sold too soon, I want to find out why. Be honest, and ask good questions: "What worked? What will I do differently next time? What was I feeling when I ignored that trade?"
Keep notes on trades you liked but didn't make. What held you back? Do you notice any patterns causing you to miss opportunities? FIX THEM!

My friend listened intently and took notes. He will be a better trader for it.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called experts.
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
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