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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #1,041
  • May 5, 2010 8:00am May 5, 2010 8:00am
Good Morning. Was here till 4:30am... what a night!

Saxon, you've got 30 pips on A/U right now? Are you seeing a long opportunity to 9145?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,042
  • May 5, 2010 8:10am May 5, 2010 8:10am
Quoting MarcVUM
Good Morning. Was here till 4:30am... what a night!

Saxon, you've got 30 pips on A/U right now? Are you seeing a long opportunity to 9145?
Oh, I was in UCHF and EU, my T-Stops got hit with +20 pips. I am just looking to AU now to see if there are any ops coming up.
  • #1,043
  • May 5, 2010 8:11am May 5, 2010 8:11am
Quoting MarcVUM
Good Morning. Was here till 4:30am... what a night!

Saxon, you've got 30 pips on A/U right now? Are you seeing a long opportunity to 9145?
I'm going to post all my pairs with areas that I think are key friction areas. I'll have it all up soon.
  • #1,044
  • May 5, 2010 8:13am May 5, 2010 8:13am
I want to say that A/U is going up to 9145. It needs to retouch the 150ema on M15 and 62ema on H1. Stochs on H4 are in favor.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 151 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,045
  • May 5, 2010 8:33am May 5, 2010 8:33am
Here are some of my charts, they are based on confluence, fib, S/R, TL and "00". I am direction-less on a lot of pairs and PA probably wont reach a lot of these. These are just key areas I will be watching.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auh1.gif Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: auh4.gif Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.gif Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #1,046
  • May 5, 2010 8:41am May 5, 2010 8:41am
Quoting Saxon
Here are some of my charts, they are based on confluence, fib, S/R, TL and "00". I am direction-less on a lot of pairs and PA probably wont reach a lot of these. These are just key areas I will be watching.
Nice wicks on your E/U and U/C charts!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,047
  • May 5, 2010 8:43am May 5, 2010 8:43am
Yeah, nice charts. I have some work to do on mine.
  • #1,048
  • May 5, 2010 8:49am May 5, 2010 8:49am
Quoting Saxon
Here are some of my charts, they are based on confluence, fib, S/R, TL and "00". I am direction-less on a lot of pairs and PA probably wont reach a lot of these. These are just key areas I will be watching.
Also, PA does not need to hit those exact spots if there is no TL intersection. If spot is based on horizontal S/R then it can be significant at any touch. For example, PA on EU is near first spot, watch PA before any trades though and make your own judgement.
  • #1,049
  • May 5, 2010 8:55am May 5, 2010 8:55am
Oh ya, EU 1.2900 will also be a 50 retrace of last drop.
  • #1,050
  • May 5, 2010 8:57am May 5, 2010 8:57am
Guys, thing's changed comparing to the last couple of months imo, I see a top in US.equities , I expect the fall accelerate sooner than later. Having said that I favor selling A/U N/U A/J N/J C/J and buying U/Cad,
The Chart is S&P500 futures
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp1b.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #1,051
  • May 5, 2010 9:02am May 5, 2010 9:02am
Quoting shahab8b
Guys, thing's changed comparing to the last couple of months imo, I see a top in US.equities , I expect the fall accelerate sooner than later. Having said that I favor selling A/U N/U A/J N/J C/J and buying U/Cad,
The Chart is S&P500 futures
I absolutely agree. However, I would like to continue trading both sides as long as possible. There will always be retraces to long for 20 or so pips!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,052
  • May 5, 2010 9:11am May 5, 2010 9:11am
A/U , looking to sell the rally, all drop has been 1st wave of an impulse try to catch the biggest fall in the 3rd wave
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1f.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #1,053
  • May 5, 2010 9:12am May 5, 2010 9:12am
Quoting Saxon
Oh ya, EU 1.2900 will also be a 50 retrace of last drop.
Quick 12 pips
  • #1,054
  • May 5, 2010 9:15am May 5, 2010 9:15am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U , looking to sell the rally, all drop has been 1st wave of an impulse try to catch the biggest fall in the 3rd wave
When do you think we will see 50 fib? I do agree that would be a perfect place to sell
  • #1,055
  • May 5, 2010 9:33am May 5, 2010 9:33am
Be back in a bit, got a few things to do on the to-do-list
  • #1,056
  • May 5, 2010 12:46pm May 5, 2010 12:46pm
PA is near second target. 1st one worked awesome. Since this is counter-trend, I would not expect as large a move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auu.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #1,057
  • May 5, 2010 12:49pm May 5, 2010 12:49pm
PA coming up to "00" target
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chff.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #1,058
  • May 5, 2010 2:01pm May 5, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting Saxon
PA is near second target. 1st one worked awesome. Since this is counter-trend, I would not expect as large a move
PA broke target, will trade with the trend when it comes back
  • #1,059
  • May 5, 2010 2:19pm May 5, 2010 2:19pm
Here is another potential friction point
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jj.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #1,060
  • May 5, 2010 2:52pm May 5, 2010 2:52pm
Is it just me, or does the EURO seem like a pretty safe bet to get at least 1.30 out of it on the long side... not sure how high it'll go over... but it seems a given... look at the GBP when it lost 1.50, the USD/CAD when it lost 1.0000.... these big psychological numbers usually get crossed multiple times... A safer play would be to short the USD/CHF though (practically the same play though as the EUR/CHF has been locked at the hip)

Long story short, even if the EURO eventually goes to parity or lower, there is a very safe bet that it'll cross the 1.30 handle a few more times before it's next big push down.

Disclosure: I'm a USD bull but I can't not play the EUR long back to 1.30 right now, especially with it at 1.28.
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