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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,501
  • May 5, 2010 9:05am May 5, 2010 9:05am
E/U , guys did you notice how precise fib extension showed us the 1.28 level
  • #2,502
  • May 5, 2010 9:07am May 5, 2010 9:07am
Quoting GoldenGold
Great call! It's happening already!
Where do you see e/u retrace to?
it's always difficult to call a level for a retracement , max 1.3130 but it will be a-b-c ,one up, one down- one up till 1.3130 , may be less or more, not very sure
  • #2,503
  • May 5, 2010 9:16am May 5, 2010 9:16am
good long opportunity at EUR/AUD
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  • #2,504
  • May 5, 2010 9:22am May 5, 2010 9:22am
Quoting shahab8b
good long opportunity at EUR/AUD
Sahab:
GBP is a stronger pair than Euro. I think gbp/AUD long would be a better option.
All the best
  • #2,505
  • May 5, 2010 9:26am May 5, 2010 9:26am
Quoting shahab8b
good long opportunity at EUR/AUD

E/A, sl around 1.41, tp 1.47-48
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  • #2,506
  • May 5, 2010 9:32am May 5, 2010 9:32am
Quoting hellopip
Sahab:
GBP is a stronger pair than Euro. I think gbp/AUD long would be a better option.
All the best
may be , may be not, I think E/G will bottom before .84 ; having said that I think Euro will outperform Cable when we get there
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  • #2,507
  • May 5, 2010 10:59am May 5, 2010 10:59am
I think thing's changed comparing to the last couple of months, I see a top in US.equities , I expect the fall accelerate sooner than later. Having said that I favor selling A/U N/U A/J N/J C/J and buying U/Cad,
The Chart is S&P500 futures,

ps. I think Yen might outperform USD but this time it would be so limited as I see a major long-term bottom in U/J as I explained months ago
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  • #2,508
  • May 5, 2010 11:10am May 5, 2010 11:10am
A/U , looking to sell the rally, all drop has been 1st wave of an impulse try to catch the biggest fall in the 3rd wave
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  • #2,509
  • May 5, 2010 11:13am May 5, 2010 11:13am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U , guys did you notice how precise fib extension showed us the 1.28 level
It still amazes me how precise the market can be at times. U/J looks confused. It doesn't know whether to succumb to risk aversion or to get with the program of US$ strength.

Bloomberg TV were saying that the Whitehouse will probably start complaining when E/U hits 1.25. It's nearly done twice it's average weekly range. The violence in Greece is just awful - three people killed inside a Greek bank that was set on fire by the protesters.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,510
  • May 5, 2010 12:00pm May 5, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting Patience
It still amazes me how precise the market can be at times. U/J looks confused. It doesn't know whether to succumb to risk aversion or to get with the program of US$ strength.

Bloomberg TV were saying that the Whitehouse will probably start complaining when E/U hits 1.25. It's nearly done twice it's average weekly range. The violence in Greece is just awful - three people killed inside a Greek bank that was set on fire by the protesters.
Euro is dead , they just don't know it yet.There is no way to run a currency with one Central Bank and different treasuries and different nations (extracted from Soros's comment) , the situation will escalate if Spain and Portugal really need a bailout.
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  • #2,511
  • May 5, 2010 12:52pm May 5, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting shahab8b
Euro is dead , they just don't know it yet.There is no way to run a currency with one Central Bank and different treasuries and different nations (extracted from Soros's comment) .
soros needs to lighten up.......

the euro may or may not die , most things do, but for sure it is not dead today.... and it would not surprise me to one day to see a single world currency and a single world central bank..... actually it would suprise me if we didn't...


//---

all that aside, seems odd the euro is standing toe to toe with the chf.....

subject to change of course......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,512
  • May 5, 2010 1:10pm May 5, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting hayseed
soros needs to lighten up.......

the euro may or may not die , most things do, but for sure it is not dead today.... and it would not surprise me to one day to see a single world currency and a single world central bank..... actually it would suprise me if we didn't...


//---

all that aside, seems odd the euro is standing toe to toe with the chf.....

subject to change of course......h

Hi there, I sent you an email yesterday, let me know what you think.Thanks.
  • #2,513
  • May 5, 2010 1:57pm May 5, 2010 1:57pm
hey shahab.... noticed the email.... will take a look and let you know.....

one thing for sure, there might need to be some sort of self adjusting/adapting ratio if you plan on using the lsr as a trailing stop ..... otherwise a large gain can quickly be a large loss.....

there are times when it can be 200-600 pips away..... it's 323 right now on the eurjpy.....

thats enough pips to choke a mule if the market were to turn on you......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,514
  • May 5, 2010 1:59pm May 5, 2010 1:59pm
What the heck is going on with the YEN ??? WHy is it strengthing that much??
  • #2,515
  • May 5, 2010 2:10pm May 5, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting Brb-Fraudin
What the heck is going on with the YEN ??? WHy is it strengthing that much??
what's temporarily leaving the euro must go somewhere.... yen is a safe bet..... this is squeezing a lot of yen shorts.... creating a spiral.....


so the money leaving the euro is taking the path of most profitable resistance.... ie, yen and/or usd.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,516
  • May 5, 2010 6:05pm May 5, 2010 6:05pm
Channel top + solid daily resistance + 62% fib + stretched/overbought condition
SL: 1260
TP:1.0950
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  • #2,517
  • May 5, 2010 6:28pm May 5, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting hellopip
Channel top + solid daily resistance + 62% fib + stretched/overbought condition
SL: 1260
TP:1.0950

It's a very good short set up -U/Chf
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  • #2,518
  • May 5, 2010 7:07pm May 5, 2010 7:07pm
The way NU jumped 60 pips in 15 min after the unemployment news, it looks to me that there is risk apetite and the the present reaction may be eur or gbp specific. All the trend following methods I follow still points downwards for AU, but a daily close above 100D sma(.9091) would mean long again. Probably by tomorrow's close things would be clear.

In some other note I have a feelinig that Obama administration would shore up the jobs number and we may see a 7-8% unemployment rate by the end of summer. If that happens, aud/usd is a good long term buy near .90. Thats solely my opinion and assuming China's housing bubble does not go burst. In that case aud/jpy would be mother of all shorts
  • #2,519
  • May 6, 2010 5:11am May 6, 2010 5:11am
SSI: NZDUSD Ratio Flips Following 41% Jump in Shorts
Thursday, 06 May 2010 08:58 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.51 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.16 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.9% lower than yesterday and 10.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 40.6% higher than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.1% stronger than yesterday and 17.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

SSI Details:
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.51 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.84 as 65% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.9% lower than yesterday and 6.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.7% higher than yesterday and 33.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.0% weaker than yesterday and 3.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.49 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.1% lower than yesterday and 16.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.0% lower than yesterday and 33.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.4% weaker than yesterday and 7.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.20 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.9% lower than yesterday and 9.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.8% higher than yesterday and 18.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 1.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.22 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.22 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday and 0.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 20.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.4% stronger than yesterday and 2.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.15 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.1% lower than yesterday and 28.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.3% lower than yesterday and 45.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.6% weaker than yesterday and 15.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.66 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.47 as 71% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.0% higher than yesterday and 21.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 21.8% lower than yesterday and 4.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.9% weaker than yesterday and 8.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.25 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.43 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.7% lower than yesterday and 58.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 46.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.6% weaker than yesterday and 8.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,520
  • May 6, 2010 5:17am May 6, 2010 5:17am
Quoting shahab8b
Euro is dead , they just don't know it yet.
Really? I haven't contemplated that scenario yet. It's too much for my brain to compute.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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