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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,481
  • May 4, 2010 11:07pm May 4, 2010 11:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
Marc, weekly and daily S/R levels are good for range trading under normal condition. 2/3 of the time market ranges and 1/3 it is in trend mode. I think with the fall in the stocks and gold /silver the condition of market is one way to the south , it means we will see impulsive moves which waves don't overlap and make use of W&D S/R level difficult, the best method for this condition is to sell pull backs in A/U
Yea, my attempt to long at 91 was a flop! I had been hoping for a pullback to weekly s1 all day but doesn't look like we will see that for a long time!

Funny thing is that at one point shorting A/U was a losing proposition... The tables have turned!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,482
  • May 4, 2010 11:11pm May 4, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Yea, my attempt to long at 91 was a flop! I had been hoping for a pullback to weekly s1 all day but doesn't look like we will see that for a long time!

Funny thing is that at one point shorting A/U was a losing proposition... The tables have turned!
It really depends on your TF , I trade H / 4H so I need to trade in the right direction, but if you are scalping for 5-10 pips you can do it both ways
  • #2,483
  • May 4, 2010 11:17pm May 4, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
It really depends on your TF , I trade H / 4H so I need to trade in the right direction, but if you are scalping for 5-10 pips you can do it both ways
I was doing my normal 5-10 pips. It went up 8 for me but I was smart enough to get out with 1 in the bag! I guess experience paid off!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,484
  • May 5, 2010 1:24am May 5, 2010 1:24am
Quoting MarcVUM
Yea, my attempt to long at 91 was a flop! I had been hoping for a pullback to weekly s1 all day but doesn't look like we will see that for a long time!

Funny thing is that at one point shorting A/U was a losing proposition... The tables have turned!

Few pages back here, Shahab posted a "Gartley" for AU, I noticed that and shorted AU. Like always, AU started going up but I waited.

Oh Well, I am glad I waited, got a very nice return on AU short.
  • #2,485
  • May 5, 2010 3:23am May 5, 2010 3:23am
Here is the chart.

Long - 9070-80, S/L - 40 pips (9040-30)

TP - 9120 (Previous S, now R).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,486
  • May 5, 2010 5:05am May 5, 2010 5:05am
It turned out to be a good trade. +40 on the trade.

Closed at .9112 as it is struggling to go past 0.9115-20 level.




Quoting puks
Here is the chart.

Long - 9070-80, S/L - 40 pips (9040-30)

TP - 9120 (Previous S, now R).
  • #2,487
  • May 5, 2010 6:18am May 5, 2010 6:18am
Came out of long with 12 pips. I will enter short at 9135, 9155 and 9175. Stop 100 tp 9025, 8970
  • #2,488
  • May 5, 2010 6:19am May 5, 2010 6:19am
Another classic bullish divergence on 1H chart on AUDUSD.

It appears we are stuck in a range trading zone of 40 pips. from 9070-9110.

Seem to be a great RRR. Stop of 20 pips and profit of 40 pips.

Long from 9070-80 with S/L of 20-25 pips and profit at .9110.

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,489
  • May 5, 2010 6:28am May 5, 2010 6:28am
Shahah.. where do you guys usually get the pure COT, am in the site u gave but couldn't find needed data
  • #2,490
  • May 5, 2010 6:48am May 5, 2010 6:48am
Quoting yullah
Shahah.. where do you guys usually get the pure COT, am in the site u gave but couldn't find needed data
check this out, look at CME
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/co...ders/index.htm
  • #2,491
  • May 5, 2010 7:04am May 5, 2010 7:04am
A/U, the fall looks impulsive, may be start of a mid-term down trend
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  • #2,492
  • May 5, 2010 7:05am May 5, 2010 7:05am
USDX Daily

61.8% fib hit ....

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,493
  • May 5, 2010 7:10am May 5, 2010 7:10am
E/U

locating the continuation patterns
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  • #2,494
  • May 5, 2010 7:29am May 5, 2010 7:29am
Quoting Patience
USDX Daily

61.8% fib hit ....

Attachment

It will hold it for a while, but not before a 100 pips fall in E/U till 1.28, then we will see a good correction imo
  • #2,495
  • May 5, 2010 8:34am May 5, 2010 8:34am
simple line charts

G/U, E/G. Gold/ Silver,
this market is extremely bearish, range trading techniques (weekly,daily p/s/r) don't work well in this condition
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  • #2,496
  • May 5, 2010 8:40am May 5, 2010 8:40am
The count has been correct so far, guys be careful , we will jump higher soon in E/U
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  • #2,497
  • May 5, 2010 8:49am May 5, 2010 8:49am
it's almost time to switch to long E/U short U/Chf, but be careful and place your SL appropriately
  • #2,498
  • May 5, 2010 8:53am May 5, 2010 8:53am
S&P 500 futures, diamond top, the same for DJI and NASDAQ
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  • #2,499
  • May 5, 2010 9:02am May 5, 2010 9:02am
U/Chf, good to go for a short around 1.12 imo
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  • #2,500
  • May 5, 2010 9:03am May 5, 2010 9:03am
Quoting shahab8b
it's almost time to switch to long E/U short U/Chf, but be careful and place your SL appropriately
Great call! It's happening already!
Where do you see e/u retrace to?
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