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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #62,681
  • May 4, 2010 5:19pm May 4, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting scott087
Anyone else in this 4 hour GBP/USD? I took this one on the break, it almost made it to the FTA but it didn't. Turned around and retraced hard into the pin and its down around 50-60 pips. If I were a touch trader the spot it's at now looks like a good spot for a long (61.8% of the pin + ppz).

Missed the FTA by about 10-12 pips and it seems like its on the way to break the low of the pin. I can't really see anything wrong here..any comments would be helpful.

Scott
I was looking at the same thing. It came close to the 61.8%. I also saw the 5155 area (magenta line) as PPZ on the daily/weekly.
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The market is always right.
  • #62,682
  • May 4, 2010 5:47pm May 4, 2010 5:47pm
What happened to EU, chopping down 1.31 and 1.30 like tofus?? Will 1.29 be a key support due to the TL formed by 2 monthly swing lows in Oct 2008 and Mar 2009?


Also, glad I was sleeping and didn't take this PB.

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  • #62,683
  • May 4, 2010 6:39pm May 4, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting scott087
Missed the FTA by about 10-12 pips and it seems like its on the way to break the low of the pin. I can't really see anything wrong here..any comments would be helpful.

Scott
Hi Scott,

Was this... (see chart)

Location isn't spot on, but it's not like it's totally crap. I'd have drawn that line and passed on this one regardless of the size of the pin, but I know many don't do this and still make good money on similar ones over time.

Would be good to hear Mike's opinion on this bar. (<-- Obvious-ed it up. )
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #62,684
  • May 4, 2010 7:19pm May 4, 2010 7:19pm
Silver DBHLC - Divergence and previous reversal level.

This bar is very similar in size to the previous hit up here. This time with divergence too.

Maybe green line for target? Who knows.

First trouble area very close, but I'm willing to risk my %0.5 on this one breaking past it , and willing to ride any draw down before that happens.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #62,685
  • May 4, 2010 7:31pm May 4, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting bundyraider
Hi Scott,

Was this... (see chart)

Location isn't spot on, but it's not like it's totally crap. I'd have drawn that line and passed on this one regardless of the size of the pin, but I know many don't do this and still make good money on similar ones over time.

Would be good to hear Mike's opinion on this bar. (<-- Obvious-ed it up. )
here is a clip from today's webinar where I talked about this bar and the aud/sgd. Again these are just MY views.

http://drop.io/q6ks7v7

Best
Mike
  • #62,686
  • May 4, 2010 7:33pm May 4, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting bundyraider
Hi Scott,

Was this... (see chart)

Location isn't spot on, but it's not like it's totally crap. I'd have drawn that line and passed on this one regardless of the size of the pin, but I know many don't do this and still make good money on similar ones over time.

Would be good to hear Mike's opinion on this bar. (<-- Obvious-ed it up. )
I know I'm not the Mike you're looking for but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a sucker for a discount price. I just got into this trade at 1.5140 with a risk of 25 pips. I like those odds and it's worth it for a trade IMO. I just looked back on this post and that is NOT a recommendation by any means. ANybody who trades on recommendation is a doofus and destined to give other people their cash.

I'll be able to really back up this view on the next 4 hour bar close if it doesn't stop me out and does indeed create a smaller bullish pin inside the range of this bar. Sometimes, price takes a little while to get a shift in momentum while sellers turn into potential buyers or just get phased out. Either way, it'll be interesting to see how price plays out and, regardless which way it goes, we can chalk one up on the experience board.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #62,687
  • May 4, 2010 7:37pm May 4, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting mike w
I know I'm not the Mike you're looking for but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a sucker for a discount price. I just got into this trade at 1.5140 with a risk of 25 pips. I like those odds and it's worth it for a trade IMO....
After I posted I noticed the 61.8 fib was also the monthly S1 pivot. I got in at the same price, but with a larger SL.
The market is always right.
  • #62,688
  • May 4, 2010 8:02pm May 4, 2010 8:02pm
Quoting Artie
After I posted I noticed the 61.8 fib was also the monthly S1 pivot. I got in at the same price, but with a larger SL.
I'm already out for a loss. But good luck my man! It may still play out and it may not, but that's all it was worth in terms of risking my cash IMO. I didn't like how price just broke through the support (which was why my stop was where it was) and right now it's at the last stand if it does indeed become profitable.

Edit: Yikes! This is exciting price action right now.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #62,689
  • May 4, 2010 8:59pm May 4, 2010 8:59pm
Quoting mbqb11
here is a clip from today's webinar where I talked about this bar and the aud/sgd. Again these are just MY views.
Thanks bloke.

Glad you said all that. Sometimes I feel I'm getting a little too hesitant, but you have no idea how good it is to hear similar feelings on this. (even the line I drew could be overcome if i believed the position was better.)

Quoting mike w
I know I'm not the Mike you're looking for but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a sucker for a discount price. I just got into this trade at 1.5140 with a risk of 25 pips. I like those odds and it's worth it for a trade IMO....
We are all finding our ways.

I've just tended to go the same way as Mike explains in the video. Which is funny. Just trying to go for the easier trades now that happen at the best locations. Funny how experience can lead people in the same direction some times.

I had a fib drawn too that showed we hadn't quite reached the 61.8 mark yet. I'm really weary of taking trades that miss out on a main study by 20 pips or more. (with the exception of a few pips ,of course) They tend to want to remedy the situation by stopping you out and then giving another signal at the better location just below.
Just been caught out so many times by that man that I'd rather miss a major signal than be caught by the many that do that. Regardless of the end result over 'X' trades being profitable.

Even with the trend line I drew, if the bar had matched that previous dip and not broken it I'd consider it more. As long as the line I drew allowed enough room to start us off. Again, just what trades make it easier on me is what I tend to take ,and I ignore the stressful ones. Got better things to do. lol

And your opinion is good too. After I posted I thought "Hey any of the long timers input would be good". I just knew mike had the same penchant for the larger bars that I do and is a lot better at playing them on their own merits than I am.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #62,690
  • May 4, 2010 9:25pm May 4, 2010 9:25pm
Mike thanks for the video--

I, as well as many others I am sure, saw the signal but the location did not offer enough reasons to justify the entry for me according to my rules....my concern was similar to yours particularly the BRN 1.5 which was not hit and there were several other factors that you explained that did not favor the trade, i.e. there seemed to more reasons not to trade the pin than there were to take it.

It is like a comfort level....if I don't feel confident at what I am doing and it turns against me then I would beat myself up and question why did I take a half-ass trade.

If I am comfortable with the trade and it does turn against me then it easy to accept the loss (part of trading).

Your video helped me to solidify that I may be making progress.

Many thanks,
Bill
  • #62,691
  • May 4, 2010 10:06pm May 4, 2010 10:06pm
Quoting jarroo
Then stop curve fitting Nustra , . . . lol just kidding.

We all have done our fair shair of curve fitting when a good looking PA formation is presented. I know I have.
It does make sense Jaroo, thank you.
also thanks Nas and all for the response, i guess its a stage of a trader's development.

rgds,
  • #62,692
  • May 4, 2010 10:51pm May 4, 2010 10:51pm
Quoting mbqb11
here is a clip from today's webinar where I talked about this bar and the aud/sgd. Again these are just MY views.

http://drop.io/q6ks7v7

Best
Mike
Thanks for the video Mike. Excellent perspective. I took the pin bar like mike w. I exited -4 as the PA just started muddling through the wee hours. For me it was a positive trade, because I was comfortable with my analysis and I stayed with it long enough until the situation had changed i.e. I didn't second guess my analysis and bail out early. I think your 'evolution of the trader' explanation hits the nail on the head.
The market is always right.
  • #62,693
  • May 5, 2010 12:02am May 5, 2010 12:02am
Quoting bundyraider
Hi Scott,

Was this... (see chart)

Location isn't spot on, but it's not like it's totally crap. I'd have drawn that line and passed on this one regardless of the size of the pin, but I know many don't do this and still make good money on similar ones over time.

Would be good to hear Mike's opinion on this bar. (<-- Obvious-ed it up. )
Hey Bundy,

Funny thing you mentioned that TL, because I had noticed it too but I don't really use TL's too much so it wasn't a deal breaker for me. I took a loss on this one, and I'd probably take it again with a small stop and look for a hard break to confirm...and I would kill it if the break didn't give me momentum.

The tough part for me at least is that many setups break, linger around the break, and then take off. I want to be able to let the trade work, but I also try to kill trades that aren't acting like they should. Just some thoughts.

Scott
  • #62,694
  • May 5, 2010 12:09am May 5, 2010 12:09am
Quoting mike w
I know I'm not the Mike you're looking for but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a sucker for a discount price. I just got into this trade at 1.5140 with a risk of 25 pips. I like those odds and it's worth it for a trade IMO....
Hey buddy hows it going ...Thanks for your view I always like to hear things from your perspective.

I was also looking at the 50% ret of that bar and PPZ around 1.5135 to act as support and continue long. For me it looked like a great spot to get in at a good price with a small stop to see if the pin would play out. I don't trade those types of techniques live yet but they are def something I am working on.

Scott
  • #62,695
  • May 5, 2010 1:36am May 5, 2010 1:36am
Quoting mbqb11
here is a clip from today's webinar where I talked about this bar and the aud/sgd. Again these are just MY views.

http://drop.io/q6ks7v7

Best
Mike
Great webinar, as usually Mike.

The 4 hour Gbp/Usd PB hit its target (in green). Bundy's trend line I sure played a role in that as well.

The location of the PB (Mike W) is a strong PPZ level and your trade was a valid one. (Daily chart PPZ, 1.5150ish)

Mike's video made sense. The "great bar" of the saying "great bars at great locations" was missing. To much strong momentum to the down side for a small PB to overcome. (Although its not invalid yet).


It seems Price is testing this PPZ level right now. Will support now turn into resistance? We shall see.

I do like how Price loves those BRNs. It seems Price just needs a reason to go running towards them. If the PPZ level (1.5150ish) now turns into resistance would sure give Price a reason to go and checkout the 1.5000.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,696
  • May 5, 2010 1:44am May 5, 2010 1:44am
Would some kind soul please have a quick look at my PPZ on GBP/USD H4 and suggest any changes or point out any errors. Placing these has been a major mental block for me. I either end up with a crossword puzzle or have large gaps. I think possibly a lot of people may experience this?


I tried my best to prevent it looking like the bird cage.

Actually, I only drew them on W1 & H4 as after I moved down to the Daily from the Weekly, they seemed to look ok so, I jumped to H4 to continue.

Hmmm, does that mean I drew too many on the Weekly?


Much obliged in advance.


PS: Looks like GU broke the 50 fibo and is not retesting it with the second touch of the 6 EMA after breaking the 150 EMA. Maybe we will see some PA today.



EDIT: After posting this, I just noticed Jaroo's post.
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  • #62,697
  • May 5, 2010 1:54am May 5, 2010 1:54am
Jaroo.

Do you mind if I ask a question about your PPZ?


If I were placing them, I would really have to battle with myself to NOT place an extra one where I drew the red arrows where price met resistance or found support. Is there a reason for leaving that line off?


Maybe this is because we have different brokers, but I did not draw that line on my chart above.


Thanks in advance.
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  • #62,698
  • Edited 2:50am May 5, 2010 1:59am | Edited 2:50am
Quoting Pinbar
Jaroo.

Do you mind if I ask a question about your PPZ?


If I were placing them, I would really have to battle with myself to NOT place an extra one where I drew the red arrows where price met resistance or found support. Is there a reason for leaving that line off?


Maybe this is because we have different brokers, but I did not draw that line on my chart above.


Thanks in advance.
Hey PB. ( gotta like that user name)


Start on the Weekly and Daily charts to locate your PPZ levels. These levels are much stronger then the lower time frame PPZ level, like the 4 Hour. If you have a setup on the 4 hour time frame, then Yes, you shoudld be aware of these levels on that time frame.

We can go over some PPZ level placements if you want.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,699
  • May 5, 2010 2:03am May 5, 2010 2:03am
Quoting Pinbar
Jaroo.


Maybe this is because we have different brokers, but I did not draw that line on my chart above.


Thanks in advance.
That's the beauty of PPZ levels, the High and Lows of Price usually doesn't change from broker to broker. Sure, Price maybe chopped up differently from broker to broke due to the close .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,700
  • May 5, 2010 2:05am May 5, 2010 2:05am
Quoting Nustra
It does make sense Jaroo, thank you.
also thanks Nas and all for the response, i guess its a stage of a trader's development.

rgds,

Cool . .now can you explain it to me because I don't understand what I said . . .lol just kidding.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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