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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #11,921
  • Edited 10:27pm May 4, 2010 10:17pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting Jideck
I do think that things are overblown realative to the true implications, but there is still a brash political bubble, as it were.

Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I agree with you that the rattles that we currently experiencing will smoother themselves out eventually , but the nature of the drops or raises is very unsettling especially when you are trading against the prevailing trend. I was very interested in EURGBP but the move up has not materialised. USDJPY is hopefully...
Indeed, Chunnel is interesting. The triangle is broken but the support is still there and the recent history was a dramatic rise after a similar pattern several months ago. That one is still on my radar, but it will require some monthly CPR to become tradable from the long side on this thread. The most interesting chart on the board to me now is E/J, having taken over from the Aussie. That monthly bull candle may still be controlling and would be my preferred way to trade long EUR until the other two discussed above recover technically. I would not be suprised if that market is higher by the close. That could raise the flag enough technically for me, as recent daily bullishness has proved profitable. Again though, one wants to pick the daily pattern that fits best with the longer term look, and the overall monthly chart there is a bit dubious, as I have written before. If traders enter these B level trades, they must be prepared to accept a loss.
  • #11,922
  • May 4, 2010 10:18pm May 4, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting Alexandra
I am just waiting for the carnage to end so that I can reestablish some long terms longs in that market. [/b]
I am wondering if those two weekly charts I posted earlier might be fakies.
I just looked at the dollar index and we are at the 61.8 fib retracement of the big drop (Mar-Dec 09) so maybe not so crazy.
  • #11,923
  • Edited 10:58pm May 4, 2010 10:31pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting elitejets
I am wondering if those two weekly charts I posted earlier might be fakies.
I just looked at the dollar index and we are at the 61.8 fib retracement of the big drop (Mar-Dec 09) so maybe not so crazy.

I think they need to be posted, but I am torn over the dramatic moves and the multiple levels of S/R. I think those two, perhaps most of all, should be traded technically, pure and simple. Personally, with my seemingly endless time horizon, I cannot reverse yet on either, though I am quite comfortable getting stopped out of the prevailing positions. My stubbornness does, however, finally see a short term technical basis for reversal as our young friend pointed out so boldly after Friday's close.
  • #11,924
  • Edited 11:10pm May 4, 2010 10:50pm | Edited 11:10pm
Quoting Flem26
I'm gonna start calling you MAVERICK. | Either that or Evel Knievel. Another chart that may be of interest is USD/CAD. It's retracing to an interesting level 1.03.

LOL - line up the TL's on the monthly EURUSD chart and see what you see. Let's have a bit of fun....the low will be 1.2750

Hmmmm on a closing basis it's....Oh God....right now.......click

Ahhh....and USDCHF is already there on the highs....click click.

All kidding aside, on USDCAD you are right on. Is there really enough ceiling to justify a stress free long? I'd probably rather catch that on the retest. You seem to know where my stops are, eh!
  • #11,925
  • May 4, 2010 11:38pm May 4, 2010 11:38pm
Quoting Alexandra
LOL - line up the TL's on the monthly EURUSD chart and see what you see. Let's have a bit of fun....the low will be 1.2750

Hmmmm on a closing basis it's....Oh God....right now.......click

Ahhh....and USDCHF is already there on the highs....click click.

All kidding aside, on USDCAD you are right on. Is there really enough ceiling to justify a stress free long? I'd probably rather catch that on the retest. You seem to know where my stops are, eh!
I see your point. If that doesn't hold, 1.24 - 1.25 makes sense to me.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,926
  • May 5, 2010 12:39am May 5, 2010 12:39am
Quoting Alexandra
[...] trend is in the eye of the chartist.
I like it, so true, I'll borrow it if you don't mind .
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #11,927
  • May 5, 2010 1:11am May 5, 2010 1:11am
Found this somewhere. Indicator based trading anyone? I just know Strat will love this one! Just how much acid did this guy take before he started trading that day?
Attached Image
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #11,928
  • May 5, 2010 2:20am May 5, 2010 2:20am
Quoting Flem26
Old fiber is getting closer and closer to 1.29. I wonder if it will hold. Things should get interesting in Asia, once Japan comes back from holidays.
I see a number of you are expecting Fibre to turn north.

No matter how I look at my charts the trend is D-O-W-N and has been since the 1.5 BRN.

What am I missing???

Fundis also support the south train - just enjoy the ride.

Are y'all gonna wait till it hits parity and then go short
  • #11,929
  • May 5, 2010 2:47am May 5, 2010 2:47am
Quoting stewrigh
I see a number of you are expecting Fibre to turn north.

No matter how I look at my charts the trend is D-O-W-N and has been since the 1.5 BRN.

What am I missing???

Fundis also support the south train - just enjoy the ride.

Are y'all gonna wait till it hits parity and then go short
Hey mate, you're not missing anything, relax. Since there is no mathematical formula for The Trend the obvious conclusion is that the results will be mixed from one trader to another. As Alexandra put it so well The Trend is in the eye of the chartist.

Of course you have to have a decent understanding of the trend, you can use Strat's MAs to guide you. If still you are not sure what the trend is then stay out of the market until the trend becomes clear TO YOU.

For what is worth, FOR ME the trend on Euro is down and I have no doubt about it. It really doesn't matter how other see it, as time passes you'll become more ignorant (in a good way) of other people opinions regarding trading.

Hope it helps,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #11,930
  • May 5, 2010 3:02am May 5, 2010 3:02am
to identify the trend is very easy: show the chart to 3yr old child and he will tell you alright. i tried this with my own kid and works very fine
if the price from upper left is higher than lower right of the chart so you will have downtrend. and vice-versa.
  • #11,931
  • May 5, 2010 3:47am May 5, 2010 3:47am
Quoting soso
Hey mate, you're not missing anything, relax. Since there is no mathematical formula for The Trend the obvious conclusion is that the results will be mixed from one trader to another. As Alexandra put it so well The Trend is in the eye of the chartist.

Of course you have to have a decent understanding of the trend, you can use Strat's MAs to guide you. If still you are not sure what the trend is then stay out of the market until the trend becomes clear TO YOU.

For what is worth, FOR ME the trend on Euro is down and I...
If still you are not sure what the trend is then stay out of the market until the trend becomes clear TO YOU.

No doubt in my mind - the trend is D_O_W_N.

become more ignorant (in a good way) of other people opinions regarding trading.

Exactly so - and thats why I don't post muuch - prefer to plough my own furrow.
  • #11,932
  • May 5, 2010 7:14am May 5, 2010 7:14am
[quote=stewrigh;3697669]If still you are not sure what the trend is then stay out of the market until the trend becomes clear TO YOU.

No doubt in my mind - the trend is D_O_W_N.

become more ignorant (in a good way) of other people opinions regarding trading.

Exactly so - and thats why I don't post muuch - prefer to plough my own furrow.

If we all adopted this attitude, this thread would not exist and those who have stood up tall from being on this thread would have fallen by the wayside.

There is NOTHING more rewarding than sharing knowledge and helping others less privileged than yourself. Knowing that I have helped, in some small way, people on this thread, cannot and is not measured in monetary terms. The reward comes from, and is given, to the soul within.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,933
  • May 5, 2010 8:28am May 5, 2010 8:28am
[quote=strat;3698321]
Quoting stewrigh
If still you are not sure what the trend is then stay out of the market until the trend becomes clear TO YOU.

No doubt in my mind - the trend is D_O_W_N.

become more ignorant (in a good way) of other people opinions regarding trading.

Exactly so - and thats why I don't post muuch - prefer to plough my own furrow.

[color=black]If we all adopted this attitude, this thread would not exist and those who have stood up tall from being on this...

Well that put me in my place again.

But with respect Strat ur missing the point.

I think what you do on FF is fantastic and I wouldn’t want to take anything away from the admirable work you do.

One of my biggest Gremlins though is FF – I’m addicted to the Bl**dy thing and in my early days would follow and contribute to literally all the threads.

That really screwed me up – I would take a trade then read an opposing view on FF so I’d close out, only to see my position fly in my direction.

It took me a long time to kill that gremlin – that’s why I ‘plough my own furrow’.

I think the ignorant comment should have read ignore – which is what I try to do – but its still hard sometimes.

Take my fibre trade for instance – I’ve been short, and adding since Feb, but if I took any notice of the views on this thread I would have closed them a long time ago.

Anyway as I’ve said before – I need a good slap every now and again – LOL.

Keep up the good work Strat – I look forward to my next slapping .
  • #11,934
  • May 5, 2010 2:44pm May 5, 2010 2:44pm
Hi everybody
What a day today was..

I would like to take the chance and post my comments on eurusd "post-carnage" as Alexandra so elegantly described.
Well, my thought is that 1.2700-20 is the last frontier for the upward move started 04/2009 as shown in attached chart.

I would love to hear your comments.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 5-5-2010.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #11,935
  • May 5, 2010 3:45pm May 5, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting Rubens PP
Hi everybody
What a day today was..

I would like to take the chance and post my comments on eurusd "post-carnage" as Alexandra so elegantly described.
Well, my thought is that 1.2700-20 is the last frontier for the upward move started 04/2009 as shown in attached chart.

I would love to hear your comments.
Kalimera Rubenshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Thanks for posting your chart. It looks like the carnage has not stopped as yet and if you look at the weekly chart then 1.24 is a possible target here. As Alexandra mentioned this pair requires technical trading and as such downmove is the flavour of the year so far. On the weekly price broke through demand DSRI which started in 2005, then 2008 and 2009.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: boss 06.05.10.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #11,936
  • May 5, 2010 4:03pm May 5, 2010 4:03pm
thanks so much for your reply Jideck
Been really helpfull.

R
  • #11,937
  • May 5, 2010 4:21pm May 5, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting maxu08
to identify the trend is very easy: show the chart to 3yr old child and he will tell you alright. i tried this with my own kid and works very fine
if the price from upper left is higher than lower right of the chart so you will have downtrend. and vice-versa.
Hmmmm...where have I read that before.....
  • #11,938
  • May 5, 2010 4:22pm May 5, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting stewrigh
If still you are not sure what the trend is then stay out of the market until the trend becomes clear TO YOU.

No doubt in my mind - the trend is D_O_W_N.

become more ignorant (in a good way) of other people opinions regarding trading.

Exactly so - and thats why I don't post muuch - prefer to plough my own furrow.
Then why are you viewing the thread?
  • #11,939
  • May 5, 2010 4:30pm May 5, 2010 4:30pm
It still haven't broken, since that is a weekly chart and the candle has time to retrace back and close within DSRI in the next two days.

Quoting Jideck
Kalimera Rubenshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Thanks for posting your chart. It looks like the carnage has not stopped as yet and if you look at the weekly chart then 1.24 is a possible target here. As Alexandra mentioned this pair requires technical trading and as such downmove is the flavour of the year so far. On the weekly price broke through demand DSRI which started in 2005, then 2008 and 2009.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #11,940
  • May 5, 2010 4:40pm May 5, 2010 4:40pm
If today's low goes on the mothership, it's over git out Maverick. |

Hey, it's slow right now and I just want to have a little bit of fun.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
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