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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #11,901
  • May 4, 2010 6:17am May 4, 2010 6:17am
Quoting cliftonarms
Thanks for an excellent newsletter this week Strat + Marcus, well worth signing up on the path to receive this alone.. Keep up the great work gents.
Whole heartedly agree! Great work Strat, I really enjoy the stories from the first part of the newsletter.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #11,902
  • May 4, 2010 6:50am May 4, 2010 6:50am
Quoting soso
Whole heartedly agree! Great work Strat, I really enjoy the stories from the first part of the newsletter.
The newsletter's are fantastic! Thanks for all the time and effort put into them. Thanks to Marcus for all his editing as well.

Since there was no previous mention of it on the thread I wasn't sure if it was supposed to be a well kept secret. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #11,903
  • May 4, 2010 9:15am May 4, 2010 9:15am
Hi
I'm brand new to this thread. How does one get hold of the newsletter.

Kind regards
Adam
  • #11,904
  • May 4, 2010 9:29am May 4, 2010 9:29am
Quoting Spinner
Yeay! So it is a proper signal, and you could put a sell order say, 20 pips under the low and you will get some pips....

Yet within "Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading", I think what we're looking for is trades that will give a bit more once entered. At least that's my aim.

So, I agree with the post saying I would wait for price to come up to some SR and give a better profit/loss aim.

Borrowed from Optimist's Collection of Pearls:



(actually , right now price has gone up and you would not be in the trade, yet just...
Spinner thanks that was a good answer as why to not take the trade, It would not be totally stress free.
  • #11,905
  • May 4, 2010 3:25pm May 4, 2010 3:25pm
Quoting Gaukhoi
Hi
I'm brand new to this thread. How does one get hold of the newsletter.

Kind regards
Adam

Welcome Gaukhoi

See this post for more info about registering on the path - http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10709
  • #11,906
  • May 4, 2010 4:00pm May 4, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting 30XTCi
Boss Euro/Usd chart. Some observations. The downsloping trendline from 2008 is playing a major role of support. It seems like every time price touches it, the market thinks it's the bottom, as seen by the long tails.
This weeks candle found resistance on the underside of the 61.8 fib.

Any higher high on Daily or Weekly must break the current trendline. On the other side there is more room to move down. I have 1.2916 as the convergence point of three trendlines, which is just below the 76.4 fib.

My gut feel is we have one more low to come.

These...

Your "2 cents" must be several dollars by now, depending on the leverage you are using!
I am not sure how your predicted 1.2916 compares with your SR levels but current price around the psycho 1.30 served as resistance and support for much of the year: April 2006 through march 07. I will be watching PA from here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,907
  • May 4, 2010 4:33pm May 4, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting Spinner
I seem to be a bit confused by your post. Not quite sure if you're in (and from where) or if you're wanting in...
Thanks for your post Spinner.
Sorry if my post was confusing. I wanted two things - the response from Alexandra on how she manages her stops (which i suspected might differ from daily PASR) and also some discussion on how we could manage it "a la Strat" in case this turns out to be a long term trend up.

Your post confirms my understanding of the teachings in this thread - that the stop should be under the 27 April bar (low of 92.80 on my chart). Since my post yesterday, we have seen price break the high of 2 april confirming 27 April as a HL.

Yes, I am in the trade. I elected to take off a third of my position yesterday between 94.60 and 94.90. I have a hard stop for the rest below the low for April and will look to add on at any retracement and appropriate PA.
  • #11,908
  • May 4, 2010 4:42pm May 4, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting Gaukhoi
Hi
I'm brand new to this thread. How does one get hold of the newsletter.

Kind regards
Adam
Hi Adam,

To get newsletter one must be registered on The Path. Please see post 11532 to 35 on page 769 which will explain the registration process.

Happy Trading
  • #11,909
  • May 4, 2010 6:53pm May 4, 2010 6:53pm
The other long wick of interest (no, not you Strat) is in EURUSD. In spite of another round of political bashing, the Greek currency has really not moved much over the last 4-5 weeks. That 1.32 level that I mentioned a while back has held again. Hence my rationale a few days ago for not selling it again. If anything, I am a buyer here. But, it is definitely a beyond the candle trade only for bold (uhhhh foolhardy) traders like myself.

Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Last night movement in EURUSD would contradict your long position here, what is it that you see and others do not? Or I take the selling for buying and buying for selling? Confused.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #11,910
  • May 4, 2010 7:37pm May 4, 2010 7:37pm
If you read back through the thread you will see that Strat believes these pairs are leaders and others are followers.
The weekly candles still have to close below/above the trendlines but there are some warning signs of trend change out there.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad weekly.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #11,911
  • May 4, 2010 7:43pm May 4, 2010 7:43pm
Greetings,

I have been Bearish on Eur/Usd for some months now having read 'Strat's' thread during 2009. This of course has realised a number of winning trades, however making those gains work to their fullest potential has been a major handbrake. I would like to register on 'The Path' in accordance with Post 11532-38 on Page 769, empty my cup and start from scratch. Trouble is I'm only a junior member and have received no response from FF Support. Please excuse my ignorance, but how does one qualify for 'Full Member' status, thereby achieving a pre-requisite for 'The Path'? Your help is appreciated.

Regards,
Celtic Kiwi.

When you seek it, you cannot find it - Zen Riddle.
  • #11,912
  • May 4, 2010 8:24pm May 4, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting Celtic Kiwi
Greetings,

I have been Bearish on Eur/Usd for some months now having read 'Strat's' thread during 2009. This of course has realised a number of winning trades, however making those gains work to their fullest potential has been a major handbrake. I would like to register on 'The Path' in accordance with Post 11532-38 on Page 769, empty my cup and start from scratch. Trouble is I'm only a junior member and have received no response from FF Support. Please excuse my ignorance, but how does one qualify for 'Full Member' status, thereby achieving...
I think you need 50 FFF posts to no longer be a junior.
  • #11,913
  • May 4, 2010 8:29pm May 4, 2010 8:29pm
what are the benefits/activities after registration ?
  • #11,914
  • May 4, 2010 8:56pm May 4, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting roundrock
what are the benefits/activities after registration ?
Hi Roundrockhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Welcome to this thread.

I would invite you to read from the post number 1 and the benefits and activities will be revealed to you.

You would have to spend time to deal with the material contained in all the posts and you will see the benefits which in the nutshell would be to learn to trade in a way so you keep your money in your account and do not let it go to ours.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #11,915
  • Edited 9:54pm May 4, 2010 9:26pm | Edited 9:54pm
Quoting Jideck
The other long wick of interest (no, not you Strat) is in EURUSD. In spite of another round of political bashing, the Greek currency has really not moved much over the last 4-5 weeks. That 1.32 level that I mentioned a while back has held again. Hence my rationale a few days ago for not selling it again. If anything, I am a buyer here. But, it is definitely a beyond the candle trade only for bold (uhhhh foolhardy) traders like myself.

Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Last...

I am just waiting for the carnage to end so that I can reestablish some long terms longs in that market. I am still adherant to a longer term uptrend there, but its been 6 months of downward pressure. I was hopeful that 1.32 might have been the end, and I even bought very lightly below that level last night, but the market stalled at about 1.3215 and moved sharply lower. Importantly, there was no valid daily signal to support a long even based on beyond the candle type of analysis. I'm not seeing anything magical other than an overdone market.

This was the case for a while with me and USDJPY as you may remember. If I remember you posted some rather interesting comments then as well. EUR is in a similar mode, though fundamantally the case if not as strong for reversal yet. There's nothing wrong with holding shorts and enjoying the surplus, but I am simply waiting for the next long term opportunity. I do think that things are overblown relative to the true implications, but there is still a brash political bubble, as it were. I don't advise stress free traders to pursue this one at this juncture. Cast your eyes back to the EUR reversal in 2000-2001 and see how many opportunities there were. No need to grab the absolute bottom.

As pointed out often, I do believe that the path was tipped by USDCHF. The weekly chart shows that nice bounce off of support in the 1.05 area, although it did give a hint of failure last week. That aspect has been blasted away this week, however, without confirming via a daily sell signal.
  • #11,916
  • Edited 10:00pm May 4, 2010 9:43pm | Edited 10:00pm
I do think that things are overblown realative to the true implications, but there is still a brash political bubble, as it were.

Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I agree with you that the rattles that we currently experiencing will smoother themselves out eventually , but the nature of the drops or raises is very unsettling especially when you are trading against the prevailing trend. I was very interested in EURGBP but the move up has not materialised. USDJPY is hopefully making a long move now although the steps are more cautionary than those that we see with USDCHF, in both cases I have been long for some time and it looks like the trends are establishing themselves again.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #11,917
  • May 4, 2010 10:02pm May 4, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting Alexandra
I am just waiting for the carnage to end so that I can reestablish some long terms longs in that market. I am still adherant to a longer term uptrend there, but its been 6 months of downward pressure. I was hopeful that 1.32 might have been the end, and I even bought very lightly below that level last night, but the market stalled at about 1.3215 and moved sharply lower. Importantly, there was no valid daily signal to support a long even based on beyond the candle type of analysis. I'm not seeing anything magical other than an overdone market....
Old fiber is getting closer and closer to 1.29. I wonder if it will hold. Things should get interesting in Asia, once Japan comes back from holidays.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,918
  • May 4, 2010 10:06pm May 4, 2010 10:06pm
Quoting Jideck
I do think that things are overblown realative to the true implications, but there is still a brash political bubble, as it were.

Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I agree with you that the rattles that we currently experiencing will smoother themselves out eventually , but the nature of the drops or raises is very unsettling especially when you are trading against the prevailing trend. I was very interested in EURGBP but the move up has not materialised. USDJPY is hopefully...

Yes, it's a matter of risk tolerance. When the carnage is maximal, so it the opportunity, but one must ask whether it's really necessary to one's stress tolerance. Again, trend is in the eye of the chartist.

If things are really so bad glabally, why are we selling JPY? Perhaps we are just buying USD....hmmmmm.
  • #11,919
  • May 4, 2010 10:08pm May 4, 2010 10:08pm
Quoting Flem26
Old fiber is getting closer and closer to 1.29. I wonder if it will hold. Things should get interesting in Asia, once Japan comes back from holidays.

Yes, don't tell Strat, but I'm sure I will find an excuse to buy the monthly trendline. We will see. Right now, it's just an ugly picture unless one is loaded short, which I am not anymore.
  • #11,920
  • May 4, 2010 10:14pm May 4, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting Alexandra
Yes, don't tell Strat, but I'm sure I will find an excuse to buy the monthly trendline. We will see. Right now, it's just an ugly picture unless one is loaded short, which I am not anymore.
I'm gonna start calling you MAVERICK. | Either that or Evel Knievel. Another chart that may be of interest is USD/CAD. It's retracing to an interesting level 1.03.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
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