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Nanningbob 4H trading system

  • #1,521
  • May 3, 2010 6:35pm May 3, 2010 6:35pm
Quoting roachroach
Well, well, well. Still deeeeep in DD. My balance is near 3000$ and my DD near 1600$, trading 0,1 lots. I'm in trouble because of 4 NZD pairs. Still no retracements ahead. I used to make 200 pips on average every day before the € crisis. I'm still holding on those 3 level recovery trades (if I close them, I lose 2/3 of my balance!). I'm glad I'm not trading live. If this kind of heavy trends with no retracements occur every month, I will definitly change system. I really don't need a heart-attack.
But I still really want to believe in Bob's system....
roach,
Are you trading a dollar a pip with $3000? I personally wouldn't trade more than 10 cents a pip with that much money.
  • #1,522
  • May 3, 2010 6:43pm May 3, 2010 6:43pm
There are some obv primary trades on NZD pairs this morning - however I'm already a little down on the ones i took last night and don't want to get over-exposed to the NZD, it's to volatile for my liking.
  • #1,523
  • May 3, 2010 6:55pm May 3, 2010 6:55pm
OK done eating seafood for a while. That was good. NZD is driving everyone crazy but not surprised it will do that at least once or twice a year. Did a study of every trade I did from last AUG. I found out that every single currency has a run like this at some point so you cant avoid the runner. Just some currencies runs are longer or more volatile than others. Eur/nzd had treated me kindly until this run. So we wait until it starts bouncing around again. OK not much happened except more backing up again. Even the MPTM didnt pick up much today.
TAKE PROFITS
MPTM 4 at +10 = +40
aud/cad +41
gbp/jpy MPTM
CLOSED FOR LOSS

OPEN TRADES
aud/nzd, -263 L2 -163 L3 -45

nzd/chf, -343 2nd L -264 3L -98 L4 0 (not going to hang on to the L1 much longer.)
nzd/jpy L1 -74 L2 0 gonna do the gold line R again.
nzd/usd, -134 -87 -20 took 1 mptm on this one.
usd/chf -246 2ndL -28
usd/jpy -71 -1
BUYS

SELLS
TOTALS
total for day +81
for the week +81
for the month +81
Carry over -1750
Primary trades
BUYS

SELLS

Secondary trades
BUYS eur/aud

SELLS aud/jpy, aud/chf
aud/cad (will reenter sell if price breaks above the 6MA)

OK my top 11 pairs and alternates:
This gives me 2 of each: aud, cad, chf, gbp, nzd,
4 of each eur, usd, jpy
aud/cad - aud/nzd this matc hes minor or commodity currencies together. As I have stated before minor currencies can get squashed by the larger currencies.
chf/jpy - eur/jpy - eur/usd - eur/cad - eur/nzd
gbp/jpy - gbp/usd - usd/chf - usd/jpy
Alternatives: the aud/jpy, eur/jpy, are all similiar so choose one. The Aud/jpy is not as volatile as the gbp/jpy if you want less movement but still like some volatility but it will do long trends more. The most important thing is you dont want to be heavily investment into any one currency. If the EUR/NZD is too volatile for your tastes you can replace it with nzd/chf or nzd/jpy. I just happen to like the eur/nzd pair and the way it flies around the chart.

Most volatile pairs: eur/nzd and gbp/jpy can be replaced with aud/jpy nzd/jpy nzd/chf for less volatility. __________________
I no longer trade usd/sgd. It is going to 25:1 leverage, simply not worth using up that much margin for a slow mover like that.[/quote][/quote][/quote]
  • #1,524
  • May 3, 2010 6:59pm May 3, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting scottik187
There are some obv primary trades on NZD pairs this morning - however I'm already a little down on the ones i took last night and don't want to get over-exposed to the NZD, it's to volatile for my liking.

One thing I try to discipline myself to do is to not enter during the day. Once a currency goes in a direction it will often stay in that direction, so 80% of my decisions are made before the JPY session. You will find price at a S/R level here more than any other time. I have found that entering during the day will most likely just get you more backed up. Except for gbp/nzd and eur/nzd the NZD is not a volatile pair and will almost always stay within a 4-600 pip range. I find them safe to trade for most of the year.
  • #1,525
  • May 3, 2010 7:04pm May 3, 2010 7:04pm
Bob - i'd be careful on any SELLS on any AUD/XXX pair today - all the talk here of an interest rate rise by the RBA later today, which usually results in a big move by the AUD against other pairs...even when everyone knows its going to happen.

Yeah i think I need to start making my trades before the JPY session - I think I took the AUD/NZD trade before the US session last night. This is definitely one area that I have to be more disciplined.
  • #1,526
  • May 3, 2010 7:07pm May 3, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting roachroach
Well, well, well. Still deeeeep in DD. My balance is near 3000$ and my DD near 1600$, trading 0,1 lots. I'm in trouble because of 4 NZD pairs. Still no retracements ahead. I used to make 200 pips on average every day before the € crisis. I'm still holding on those 3 level recovery trades (if I close them, I lose 2/3 of my balance!). I'm glad I'm not trading live. If this kind of heavy trends with no retracements occur every month, I will definitly change system. I really don't need a heart-attack.
But I still really want to believe in Bob's system....
You are trading too large of lots. Even at 3000 pips in the hole my DD seldom goes over 20% of my account.

 

  1. Lesson #1 in trading, dont overleverage, will get you into trouble no matter what system you use.
  2. Lesson #2 When learning a new system never start with the volatile pairs.
  3. Lesson #3 Learn to take a loss. If my account gets near the 20% level of my account I am closing L1 trades or adding more funds to my account if I think the trades are still good.
  4. IF YOU CANT CLOSE A LOSING TRADE, YOU NEED TO GET OUT OF THE BUSINESS. YOU WILL HAVE LOSING TRADES.
  5. I have a plan and I stick to that plan. Somewhere at - 400 -500 I am taking my L1 loss. I violated it on my last eur/nzd and took a bigger loss than I should have but I still closed it.
  6. You cant be a good trader until you are willing to handle that bad trade and take the loss.
  7. Being 50% down is not the trading systems loss. You violate the rules you gonna get burned in this business.

  • #1,527
  • May 3, 2010 7:11pm May 3, 2010 7:11pm
G'day Pidgeon,

You're right, a few of those trades do not qualify as secondary trades, that's why I included 'Other' in the title (:

I just put an order in based on previous S/R levels and also zooming out to the D1 chart to determine if the pair has been in an uptrend for the last few weeks. Higher risk trades for sure, I blame my risk appetite for that..

Quoting Pidgeon
My reading of Bob's system is that the secondary trades are more based off of hitting previous support / resistance than they are off the 6x6 lines. However, I looked at Silverfish's trades on my charts, and they do seem to be in the middle where we usually stay away from. But since they are labeled "other" he might have additional criteria / plan that he is using.

Any comments fish?
  • #1,528
  • May 3, 2010 7:33pm May 3, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting scottik187
Bob - i'd be careful on any SELLS on any AUD/XXX pair today - all the talk here of an interest rate rise by the RBA later today, which usually results in a big move by the AUD against other pairs...even when everyone knows its going to happen.

Yeah i think I need to start making my trades before the JPY session - I think I took the AUD/NZD trade before the US session last night. This is definitely one area that I have to be more disciplined.
My experience in news trading is if a currency is way overbought/oversold the market is predicting the direction of the news. Buy the rumor, sell the news. The combo of the Euro news and Aud interest rate has driven the NZD to way overbought and I suspect an abandonment at the news story. The AUD pairs are giving a mixed signal so I will go in with lower lot sizes. I go in with 2/3 or 1/2 of my normal lot size and that has served me well. That way if I am surprised I still can trade my way out of trouble. If you are a conservative trader follow Toothman. He is a very solid trader. Me I am riskier, sometimes I think I should let him do all the teaching but then you would never learn the 2.4.2 system.
  • #1,529
  • May 3, 2010 10:12pm May 3, 2010 10:12pm
Quoting nanningbob
My experience in news trading is if a currency is way overbought/oversold the market is predicting the direction of the news. Buy the rumor, sell the news. The combo of the Euro news and Aud interest rate has driven the NZD to way overbought and I suspect an abandonment at the news story. The AUD pairs are giving a mixed signal so I will go in with lower lot sizes. I go in with 2/3 or 1/2 of my normal lot size and that has served me well. That way if I am surprised I still can trade my way out of trouble. If you are a conservative trader follow...
Sound advice - as always
  • #1,530
  • May 4, 2010 12:20am May 4, 2010 12:20am
If this is true then this is crap.

It now looks like almost 30% of the Greek financing will come from the IMF, rather than just a small portion. And since 40% of the IMF is funded by US taxpayers, and that debt will be JUNIOR to current bond holders (if the rumors are true) I can't tell you how outraged that makes me. What that means is that US (and Canadian and British, etc.) tax payers will be giving money to Greece who will use a lot of it to roll over old bonds, letting European banks and funds reduce their exposure to Greece while tax-payers all over the world who fund the IMF assume that risk. And does anyone really think that Greece will pay that debt back? IMF debt should be senior and no bank should be allowed to roll over debt and reduce their exposure to Greek debt on the back of foreign tax-payers.
I don't think I signed on for that duty. Why should my tax money go to help European banks? This is just wrong on so many levels and there is nothing seemingly we can do. Oh, well. Thanks for listening.
  • #1,531
  • May 4, 2010 1:06am May 4, 2010 1:06am
Thanks for the eye opening commentary, Bob. Sounds like you have a point, and seems very unfair. I pay my taxes to the Australian government, wonder if they fund the IMF too...

Okay I just had a look on Wikiepedia and they do, but it's only 1.5% of the total sum whereas USA is 17.1% ouch!

Quoting nanningbob
If this is true then this is crap.

It now looks like almost 30% of the Greek financing will come from the IMF, rather than just a small portion. And since 40% of the IMF is funded by US taxpayers, and that debt will be JUNIOR to current bond holders (if the rumors are true) I can't tell you how outraged that makes me....
  • #1,532
  • May 4, 2010 1:24am May 4, 2010 1:24am
nanningbob, you write that you use 0.05 lots for a $1,000 account. To me this sounds way too much. That would be 5% for a 100 pips move (5000 units)! Or do you mean 0.005 lots which would be 500 units? That sounds more logical...
  • #1,533
  • May 4, 2010 1:35am May 4, 2010 1:35am
Quoting Xaron
nanningbob, you write that you use 0.05 lots for a $1,000 account. To me this sounds way too much. That would be 5% for a 100 pips move (5000 units)! Or do you mean 0.005 lots which would be 500 units? That sounds more logical...
In American money that is 5 cents not 50 cents. 50 cents would be way too much. So if I get 100 pips I make 5 dollars. 4000 pips about 200 dollars. My goal is to be around 8-12% increase of my account every month. Last month I did better than 20% but that was a very unusual month. I dont expect that to happen often. I take trading as an investment not a get rich or make a living thing. So that is my approach. Obviously 10% return on my investment every month is very much worth my time. As my account gets bigger I will lower my expectations to 5%. This way I dont ever blow an account and I trade very reasonably. It took me almost 3 years to learn this and it is very hard to get traders to understand and comprehend these numbers. They want to put my EA on the back tester and see if it makes them a million bucks in 6 months. Just not going to happen. Being 50% down should never happen. Lots are way to big or you are way underfunded. Again when I post my DD at 3000 pips I am still under 20% of my account. I feel if you trade bigger than that you are really asking for trouble. I hope that is understandable.
  • #1,534
  • May 4, 2010 1:43am May 4, 2010 1:43am
Thanks nanningbob. I do understand. Actually your trading approach is one of the most logical and best here at FF. It's just easy and simple. It will always work. I don't know why anyone would give this pearl a negative rating. Must be from some 5% a day scalpers...
  • #1,535
  • May 4, 2010 1:45am May 4, 2010 1:45am
Please let me add another question:

You mentioned a spacing of 200 pips for the different entry levels. I imagine that you use different spacing for different pairs? I mean 200 pips for the EUR/GBP might a bit too much where 200 pips for the GBP/NZD is too less...
  • #1,536
  • May 4, 2010 2:06am May 4, 2010 2:06am
PRIMARY TRADES
CLOSED SELL:
audcad +18
CLOSED BUY:
gbpnzd 0 (Closed at breakeven)

OPEN BUY:
audnzd -58


SECONDARY/OTHER TRADES
CLOSED SELL:
eurcad +110
CLOSED BUY:
gbpjpy +25 (W line was close to bottom, so expected reversal)

OPEN BUY:
gbpchf -15 (RWB lines were close to bottom & this pair had been ranging for a while)
gbpusd -36 (W line was close to bottom and price in bottom third of chart, so expected reversal) - Ouch looks like i got in too early for this one
usdjpy +87 (WB lines was close to bottom & this pair had been in uptrend on daily chart, so expected reversal)
audcad -23 (W line was close to bottom & recent trend seemed to be going up, so expected reversal) - Not looking good this one, was probably a mistake to enter
OPEN SELL:
chfjpy +13 (W line was close to the top & price was close to prev R line, expected a reversal)
  • #1,537
  • May 4, 2010 2:06am May 4, 2010 2:06am
Oh and another question. As your spacing might be variable, do you use the same position size for all pairs or smaller sizes for more volatile pairs?
  • #1,538
  • May 4, 2010 2:08am May 4, 2010 2:08am
Xaron, I'm pretty sure we are meant to use the height of 1/6th of the chart height as the spacing. That's what I'm using anyway.

If you look at my previous screenshot, it's in the top left corner of the chart called 'Distance between the lines' and is provided by the indicator called 'NB sixths'

Quoting Xaron
Please let me add another question:

You mentioned a spacing of 200 pips for the different entry levels. I imagine that you use different spacing for different pairs? I mean 200 pips for the EUR/GBP might a bit too much where 200 pips for the GBP/NZD is too less...
  • #1,539
  • May 4, 2010 2:27am May 4, 2010 2:27am
Ah ok, thanks for that!
  • #1,540
  • May 4, 2010 2:44am May 4, 2010 2:44am
Quoting Xaron
Please let me add another question:

You mentioned a spacing of 200 pips for the different entry levels. I imagine that you use different spacing for different pairs? I mean 200 pips for the EUR/GBP might a bit too much where 200 pips for the GBP/NZD is too less...
My spacing rules are non volatile around 150 as close as you can get to a S/R line and 200 on medium to volatile. Very volatile 350-300. What I have been trying lately is using a MA cross for my 2 and 3L which works well but after a couple of MPTM I now find my spacing not good. So I am thinking my way through that problem right now and seeing how I might change to handle that.
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