That is a good question. I've never given much thought to the close of the candle. RU talking about the close on which TF?
Personally I have been beaten down this month. Lost most of my gains of the previous two months!
7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
- #2,521
- Apr 19, 2010 5:20pm Apr 19, 2010 5:20pm
khaledtag,
What is your back testing telling you to do? I read these post's, but I don't trade suggestions, until I have tested them, and it looks like they might work.
I have set up different time frames for different pairs, as that is what seems to work, on my test account. My live account might have different data, and different spreads etc, and it might need fine tuning, once the testing is done.
For example, I have back tested the EURAUD, from 18th March using GMT Shift = 0, Start 08:00, End 10:00, and I have a note to test it with a -2 shift.
For the GBPAUD GMT Shift = -1, Start 08:00, End 10:00; etc.
For trading purposes, I move stops to B/E at 15 pips, and T/P @ 30 pips. Some pairs move further, and so 30 pips might be too conservative. For others it might be too late. For example the AUDUSD only made 65 pips in 22 trades, but had a possible total (from breakout to peak) of 447. On the other hand EURUSD made 322 pips with the possible total of 757. The average move was 37.85 pips, so in this case 30 pips is too conservative for this currency paid in March /April 2010. Who knows it could get better or worse in the future.
Tonight on test, using (an) AUD $5,200 in my test account and risking no more than 2% for each pair, I made the following (all have been converted to AUD at the prevailing rate).
audusd $260.00 (30 pips)
audjpy $97.50
eurusd $130.00
gbpaud $74.29
eurgbp $135.65
gbpusd $- B/E
euraud -$104.00 Loss
$593.44
But it could all be B/S!!
You need to test it yourself, and find the time frame that seems to work for each pair, for you.
Do this consistently, mechanically, and risk only 2% per pair, and one could have a very comfortable living!
As for you 2nd question, once I am in a trade, I cancel the opposite trade. Quick analysis indicates that it's not profitable often enough to keep it there in case of a stop and reverse.
Cheers,
M
What is your back testing telling you to do? I read these post's, but I don't trade suggestions, until I have tested them, and it looks like they might work.
I have set up different time frames for different pairs, as that is what seems to work, on my test account. My live account might have different data, and different spreads etc, and it might need fine tuning, once the testing is done.
For example, I have back tested the EURAUD, from 18th March using GMT Shift = 0, Start 08:00, End 10:00, and I have a note to test it with a -2 shift.
For the GBPAUD GMT Shift = -1, Start 08:00, End 10:00; etc.
For trading purposes, I move stops to B/E at 15 pips, and T/P @ 30 pips. Some pairs move further, and so 30 pips might be too conservative. For others it might be too late. For example the AUDUSD only made 65 pips in 22 trades, but had a possible total (from breakout to peak) of 447. On the other hand EURUSD made 322 pips with the possible total of 757. The average move was 37.85 pips, so in this case 30 pips is too conservative for this currency paid in March /April 2010. Who knows it could get better or worse in the future.
Tonight on test, using (an) AUD $5,200 in my test account and risking no more than 2% for each pair, I made the following (all have been converted to AUD at the prevailing rate).
audusd $260.00 (30 pips)
audjpy $97.50
eurusd $130.00
gbpaud $74.29
eurgbp $135.65
gbpusd $- B/E
euraud -$104.00 Loss
$593.44
But it could all be B/S!!
You need to test it yourself, and find the time frame that seems to work for each pair, for you. Do this consistently, mechanically, and risk only 2% per pair, and one could have a very comfortable living!
As for you 2nd question, once I am in a trade, I cancel the opposite trade. Quick analysis indicates that it's not profitable often enough to keep it there in case of a stop and reverse.
Cheers,
M
i tried it today and it worked great on eur/usd pair. i had short @ 1.3220 and buy @ 1.3245 (both with a trailing stop of 15). short was hit nicely. took it out at 1.3180 for a nice 40 pips 
im not having any orders right now anymore, and im gonna try this system tomorrow again! to bad this thread is not so busy .... were there so many bad trades with it or so??
im not having any orders right now anymore, and im gonna try this system tomorrow again! to bad this thread is not so busy .... were there so many bad trades with it or so??
i tried it today and it worked great on eur/usd pair. i had short @ 1.3220 and buy @ 1.3245 (both with a trailing stop of 15). short was hit nicely. took it out at 1.3180 for a nice 40 pips
for the last month or so and it definitely works but if you want to get better results you should also use some other indicators, trade it with the trend ect..
good luck
I have been lurking in this thread for a while, reading the various contributions and feel the same as Seann303$$ in keeping it going.
I figure that one shouldn't trade any plan offered up, unless one has done their homework. I also figure that if one currency is going to have a break out, then many probably will behave the same way. To this end I opened a demo account and back tested 9 currencies. Of the 9 (see below), 8 have the times that I figure offer the best results for me. The ninth, GBPAUD, just wasn't worth the pain. It pretty much broke even or worse in all the time frames I tested, so I dumped it as an option.
I'm in Melbourne, so local time for me is GMT +10; I get to trade early afternoon and evening.
The following are the times that I have found to work for me.
Currency Open Time End Time Open Time End Time Actual entry:
Pair GMT GMT Local Local after
EURJPY 01:00 04:00 11.00 14.00 14:15
EURAUD 02:00 04:00 12.00 14.00 14:15
GBPUSD 03:00 07:00 13.00 17.00 17:15
USDJPY 04:00 07:00 14.00 17.00 17:15
EURGBP 05:00 07:00 15.00 17.00 17:15
EURUSD 05:00 07:30 15.00 17.30 17:45
AUDJPY 05:00 08:00 15.00 18.00 18:15
AUDUSD 08:00 10:00 18.00 20.00 20:15
The back test results for the above time frames are:
Currency Pair March April May Grand Total
AUDJPY 127.0 109.0 30.0 266.0
AUDUSD 69.0 176.0 245.0
EURAUD 119.0 162.0 30.0 311.0
EURGBP 78.0 211.0 -19.0 270.0
EURJPY 221.0 200.0 60.0 481.0
EURUSD 240.0 194.0 30.0 464.0
GBPUSD 100.0 303.0 -43.0 360.0
USDJPY 120.0 228.0 30.0 378.0
Grand Total 1,074.0 1,583.0 118.0 2,775.0
(they were nicely formatted tables when I put them in, but all the spaces have been striped out)
Note the March results are only from about the 15th, so not a full month.
The trade plan is pretty much as dznmrd outlined in the first post. Entry is on the break out of the high or low of the time frame, stop loss is on the opposite side. ie the entry for a long, has the entry for a short as the stop loss, and vice versa.
When the market moves 15 pips in your favour, move stops to Break Even (BE). When the market gets to 30 pips Take Profit TP.
The attraction of this method is that it is mechanical. You set the trades in MT4, including the take profit and the stop loss, and (almost) forget it. Trailing stops can work, but I'm not sure I have that all sussed out yet.
The above results don't take into account spread. When trading a real account (test or with real money) wide spreads can get you in, and then not out, even though the bar looks as though it hit target. This is where a bit of discretion might be necessary.
However, I figure the results warrant testing it with real money, and let the emotions (fear and greed) work their magic!
I liked the results from the back test so much, that I have a live account, funded. The trading plan is to risk no more than 2% per trade per currency. If the first trade in a pair doesn't work, don't chase it. Save for the next day.
Like Sean303$$ I will try to keep you updated will weekly dispatches.
Cheers,
MKHPD1
I figure that one shouldn't trade any plan offered up, unless one has done their homework. I also figure that if one currency is going to have a break out, then many probably will behave the same way. To this end I opened a demo account and back tested 9 currencies. Of the 9 (see below), 8 have the times that I figure offer the best results for me. The ninth, GBPAUD, just wasn't worth the pain. It pretty much broke even or worse in all the time frames I tested, so I dumped it as an option.
I'm in Melbourne, so local time for me is GMT +10; I get to trade early afternoon and evening.
The following are the times that I have found to work for me.
Currency Open Time End Time Open Time End Time Actual entry:
Pair GMT GMT Local Local after
EURJPY 01:00 04:00 11.00 14.00 14:15
EURAUD 02:00 04:00 12.00 14.00 14:15
GBPUSD 03:00 07:00 13.00 17.00 17:15
USDJPY 04:00 07:00 14.00 17.00 17:15
EURGBP 05:00 07:00 15.00 17.00 17:15
EURUSD 05:00 07:30 15.00 17.30 17:45
AUDJPY 05:00 08:00 15.00 18.00 18:15
AUDUSD 08:00 10:00 18.00 20.00 20:15
The back test results for the above time frames are:
Currency Pair March April May Grand Total
AUDJPY 127.0 109.0 30.0 266.0
AUDUSD 69.0 176.0 245.0
EURAUD 119.0 162.0 30.0 311.0
EURGBP 78.0 211.0 -19.0 270.0
EURJPY 221.0 200.0 60.0 481.0
EURUSD 240.0 194.0 30.0 464.0
GBPUSD 100.0 303.0 -43.0 360.0
USDJPY 120.0 228.0 30.0 378.0
Grand Total 1,074.0 1,583.0 118.0 2,775.0
(they were nicely formatted tables when I put them in, but all the spaces have been striped out)
Note the March results are only from about the 15th, so not a full month.
The trade plan is pretty much as dznmrd outlined in the first post. Entry is on the break out of the high or low of the time frame, stop loss is on the opposite side. ie the entry for a long, has the entry for a short as the stop loss, and vice versa.
When the market moves 15 pips in your favour, move stops to Break Even (BE). When the market gets to 30 pips Take Profit TP.
The attraction of this method is that it is mechanical. You set the trades in MT4, including the take profit and the stop loss, and (almost) forget it. Trailing stops can work, but I'm not sure I have that all sussed out yet.
The above results don't take into account spread. When trading a real account (test or with real money) wide spreads can get you in, and then not out, even though the bar looks as though it hit target. This is where a bit of discretion might be necessary.
However, I figure the results warrant testing it with real money, and let the emotions (fear and greed) work their magic!
I liked the results from the back test so much, that I have a live account, funded. The trading plan is to risk no more than 2% per trade per currency. If the first trade in a pair doesn't work, don't chase it. Save for the next day.
Like Sean303$$ I will try to keep you updated will weekly dispatches.
Cheers,
MKHPD1
- #2,536
- May 9, 2010 1:36pm May 9, 2010 1:36pm
Hi Seann,
I'm planning on getting more involved with this forum, so let me encourage you to to continue to post your results. May I ask what additional indicators or rules you use to be successful with this strategy?
Thanks,
BC
I'm not trying to confuse traders but the Craig Harris thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=211188 might shed some light on how to become more profitable with this system.
If not then just ignore.
Trade to trade well,
JD
It's Easy To Get In;.. It's Hard To Get Out
- #2,538
- May 11, 2010 1:44pm May 11, 2010 1:44pm
JD, Thanks for the link. You have added more confusion, but maybe given me a better trading system. I acknowledge that the risk to reward in this one is badly skewed the wrong way. Almost none of the trades even come to a 1:1 R/R. It relies on a high percentage of winners, rather then each trade having a decent R/R.
eg. Last evening (Melbourne time) I traded 5 pairs. 2 broke even, 2 went to profit eg 30 pips ea, and the one was a loss. The R:R on the loss ate all the profit. So I walked away from a nights trading with virtually nothing. Better...
the dialog about the “Tokyo Channel” within that thread might help. Trade to trade well,
JD
It's Easy To Get In;.. It's Hard To Get Out
