Josh's Trades

Felt like I left a lot on the table today. Took many good trades but didn't get much out of them. Took a few poor/early trades that didn't end up showing PA by the bar close.

The first 4 trades were into the support marked by the red line, which was a major PPZ from last week. Still, they were with the trend from the Europe session.. Trades 3 and 4 didn't have PA by the time the bar closed. In fact I should have reversed trade 4 on the bar close, which was a nice pinbar at support...

Trade 5 was in anticipation of a breakout of the recent highs. We did get that, but only briefly, before forming a pinbar. Trade 6 was a BUOB reconfirming the breakout higher. I should have banked some profit on this trade, knowing we were in a choppy market this morning on g/u. Gave 1.25R back on that one...

Trade 7 was a with trend bar off the midBB that broke through resistance. I banked profit near the highs. Trade 8 was a short that I entered and ran lower, but couldn't break through the prior low. I considered taking full profit there but for some reason didn't...

Trades 9-11 were managed very tightly as we were basically in a flat market. I knew I had to be leaving the house shortly too, so I exited trade 11 right after we broke the bar lows. I was fortunate on these, as the 1.5450 level held as support.

It's an art to know when to take a full profit at 1R and when to hold for a multiple R run opportunity. G/U was pretty sideways today, so I should probably have banked at least some profit as we broke 8-10 pips...

Loss of 0.34R today.

This was a horrible day for me. I am pretty disappointed in myself, for taking so many trades after establishing we were in a consolidation zone.

The feeling that I must trade and must make money each day must be overcome to be profitable long term. Otherwise, I'll continue to be slaughtered on days like this. Today's action was not dissimilar to my other poor day
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=52

Trades 1 and 2, were ok as we were off the midBB which was still going down. We hadn't established a flat trend yet. But once these trades stopped at the prior lows and just sat there, I should have realized that we were going sideways and no longer down. This should have been a trigger for me to stop trading until we resumed trending in either direction.

Trade 3s was another pattern where if we were still trending down, we probably would have made money. But in a horizontal trend, the prior lows just stopped the price from moving lower.

Trade 4 was a pure breakout long, which was too messy to be a strong breakout. Trade 5 was trading it as a 'false breakout higher' and resume down trend... Again, these normally work, but not in a horizontal trend.

Similar with 6 and 7.

Loss of 4.16R on the day, triggering me to halt trading.

Let me use disappointment as material for patience.
Let me use success as material for thankfulness.
Let me use trouble as material for perseverance.
Let me use danger as material for courage.
Let me use reproach as material for long suffering.
Let me use praise as material for humility.
Let me use pleasures as material for temperance.
Let me use pain as material for endurance.
- Author John Baillie

Many thanks for sharing, Josh

Again, I showed calmness and resilience after yesterday's poor day. 5 trades, all of which reached at least 1R.

***(I'm changing my 'maxR' column to be if I used a straight 10pip stop. I had been only updating it until I exited the trade.)

Trade 1S, a pinbar off 1.32, after watching two prior bars also form pbs. A quick break, but one that didn't hold.

Trade 2, a large CT pinbar, where I used a larger stop. This just sat at my entry, so I exited. Holding on would have been good in this case. Trade 3 was similar, a CT pinbar that formed after a 2bar pb, at 1.3250. Got stopped out by 1pip before it ran really nicely. Would have been a really nice trade.

Trade 4 went straight into drawdown, nearly taking me out, but then ran ok, down toward 1.52, where I moved to b/e and was soon stopped out.

And Trade 5 was a nice with trend bar that tried to break higher, but failed and closed in lower 1/2 of the consolidation. A nice break toward the daily open, where I took profit.

Gain of 1.15R on the day.

I'm realizing I'm getting off track here. I am taking trades off bars that are not good setups.
- Entering trades for the sake of trading.
- Entering with a few minutes before the close of the bar.
- Entering on E/U because I see G/U moving fast... I must realize they may sometimes move the same direction, but they are far from correlated.
- Entering trades in a rush.
- Feelings of "I don't want to miss this move."
- Feelings that "I should get in now, otherwise I'll have to increase my stop and reduce my size."

I"m going through some of Ryan's material lately, while reminding myself of my goals on this tf.

Improved Patience will be the result of persevering while focusing on the discipline to only take trade setups that match my plan. Focus on executing my trading day correctly. Perfect practice produces perfect trading days (where I execute my plan perfectly and am proud to show the trades I placed, regardless of results.)

I'm not far from making decent money doing this. There is no substitute or shortcut for gaining experience through practice each day. Of course, I must make sure that I'm practicing correctly. And that is what I'm aiming to point out here.

Edit: It should be noted that not all my trades have been poor. That is tricky though because it's not right to judge the quality of a trade based on it's result; and many poor trades have given me positive results, while good setups have failed. It needs to be a mindset change, where I consciously focus on only taking good setups, filtering out the poor ones and not trading them. Sounds so obvious when I write it, but there are days when I am not focused on only trading good setups, but instead on making this amount, or not missing this move, etc...

Edit2: It's easy to brush off 'poor' trades as part of discretionary trading. And true, in price action trading, there is a fair bit of discretion involved (bar shape, size, location, space, etc). But that doesn't mean I shouldn't have an idea of what I'm looking for. Only I can know my thought process just prior to taking a trade. And I know it isn't always legit (see the 'feelings that...' above)

Edit3: If I'm confident in the setups I'm taking, I'll feel more comfortable not moving my stop to b/e quite so soon. There have been many cases lately where I could have netted much better returns by waiting to move to b/e say until 10mins after the bar close...

Got some things worked through today as the above posts notes. Better trades today.

1S is the pattern I look for, but could have been a lower close.
2L was ill-advised. I remember my mind thinking I'll regret not taking this breakout higher, especially with these pinbars in trend. But by the next close, I should have been thinking close or reverse.
3S was the reverse on the breakout, though noticeably late.
4L was a good trade. What I look for, and good entry.
5L was no PA. Dangerous to take this trade at the midBB while the BB is flat.
6S was a good setup and a really nice follow through. I exited early, but a good trade.
7S was a BEOB setup off the 1.3250 level. DIV on BB extreme, but I wouldn't have considered it a CT trade. Stopped out early on before the run could take place.

***I've been moving my stop to b/e at about +5 pips. That has protected me in cases when the setups I take are poor. As I develop patience and remember to focus on taking good setups, I may change my management to moving to b/e a bit later...

Loss of 0.31R on the day.

Gain of 0.33R on the month of April.

Just demo today... not much time. Seems to be much smaller ranges on the bars this morning too. maybe it's just me.

e/u
First trade was a nice pinbar with trend, but below midBB and didn't test 1.33. I exited early.
Second trade was the setup for a H&S down, but it didn't pan out. Sat in drawdown for 25 minutes before being stopped out.

g/u
15min pinbar off 1.5350. Moved to b/e at 5pips, and stopped out early. We'll see if this one works...

Loss of 3.66R on the week.

Good patience today as things were just stuck in the mud until after the US open.

First trade was a straight Breakout after the BEOB (poor close though).
Second trade was long BUOB off BB extreme in flat trend. I closed and reversed (3S) on the close of the next bar though. I like that bar setup and it proved itself once again. Sat around b/e for a while and then broke lower on the 7:30am CST news. But soon retraced and stopped me out. This turned into a runner, had I left my stop up at -10pips.

Entered 4S on a nice bar, false breakout higher, close through the consolidation. A straight runner. Out too early, but a nice profit.
I left a lot on the table today. But I think I managed the trades pretty well overall. More importantly, I don't feel I overtraded. I was in sync with price, and took profit as it was offered, knowing we had been range trading most of the session.

Gain of 1.22R today.

Got some pictures of the weekend canoeing on the Mississippi River too...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/69403894@N00/

First trade was a short on a great pattern. At MidBB, at S/R, a test of recent highs and close near the lows. Had very significant drawdown right after I entered though. S/R held and it eventually fell to new lows. I had marked 1.5250 as a major PPZ from last week. Price approached it but I didn’t take any profit. Price ran up and stopped me out (b/e) to the fraction of a pip (1.51673) before returning a few minutes later to make new lows. Ouch.

Second trade was a pinbar off midBB and off S/R. I entered but didn’t like that the close was still in the top ½ of the consolidation. I exited when it didn’t immediately break. It ran 1.3R about 90 seconds after I exited, and only had 1pip of drawdown during that time. Ouch again.

The pink highlighted bars are those that I considered but passed on. The e/u pin short off 1.31 was a nice one, but I was already short g/u at that time and didn’t want to expose myself to more risk at that time. Done for the day as we are nearing London close and I don't want to have to guess when/if the trend will change...

Some great entries in the last several days. Just have to work on management and patience once in the trade. It's worth reminding myself that I was successful using a b/e at 8-10pips, straight full tp at 2R... In any case, I'm happy that I am trading with more patience, waiting for bars that I want to trade instead of taking bars for silly reasons as to not miss an anticipated move.

Gain of 0.09R today.

Just one trade today... About zero drawdown (I entered near the close of the following bar). Took some off at the s/r marked at prior lows. Took remaining off a little later. Another one of those where I 'wish' I had held for another hour or two, lol. But a good day and a good week thus far.

Gain of 1.3R today.

Well, I'm a bit undecided on what action to take when I reach my goals, whether they be daily, weekly, yearly, etc. I reached my weekly goal yesterday of 2.5R (quite doable in one day actually, but it just doesn't seem to work out that way very often). So the question became:
- Do I stop trading live for the week now, since I have reached the weekly goal? I could still trade on demo.
- Do I continue to trade as normal?

Trade 1 was a beautiful pattern, testing the recent bar highs and closing near the lows of the consolidation. Apparently this was a stronger ppz than initially realized. Still, a good setup with trend and not one to fret over.

I entered trade two a minute before the bar close. By the close, the bar didn’t look like a good setup at all. So I exited it. Good exit, but early entry.

Trade 3 was a great setup off of this new s/r zone, but into 1.2750. Pretty deep retracement before breaking much lower. I held on for some of the ride and exited for a nice profit.

I didn't like the feeling of having reached my goal and then have a 1R loss. When trade 3 was complete, I stopped and left my computer (prior commitment anyway).

My initial feeling is that I should focus on hitting my weekly goal on a very consistent basis before I start focusing on maximizing returns. In other words, when I reach 2.5R+ on the week, I should stop trading my live account. I can still watch price and demo trade. I can also use that time to read Brooks, Williams, and going over other collected materials. As I gain confidence and experience success consistently, I then feel it would be OK to continue trading normally beyond the goal...

Gain of 0.47R today

Incredible moves today.

ATR(36) on 5min E/U = 16.9pips and G/U = 31.4pips! Large ATR continued overnight.
NFP today.
Goal attained this week.

For all these reasons, I'm not trading today.

+3.08R this week.

Good patience today amid very volatile market conditions again.

Entry long after the pinbar closed and we then retested under 1.29. I entered as we were breaking higher, allowing me to use a 10 pip stop. Exited with nice profit as we neared first trouble area, knowing we were in a decent downtrend.

Gain of 1.61R today.

Entered this trade at about the close of the second straight pinbar, with a close under 1.2700. Moderate retracement (-8 pips), but then fell nicely. Took profit near the lows of next bar at 1.26885.

I feel very comfortable trading lately. Exercising great patience and focusing on getting in the zone with price and how price is moving before considering entering a trade. It seems to be helping me relax and not overtrade.

I will hold to my recent decision to quit after reaching goals. I think this will help me from getting superiority feelings and avoiding the urge to overtrade from overconfidence. So...

Gain of 1.23R today.

Gain of 2.84R this week. Goal attained. Will increase account Monday. Will be demo trading throughout the week as well as continuing to go through some other mind/psychology stuff.

It's such a great feeling to start to see my vision become reality and my goals start to be met more consistently.

One trade today. Got off to a very late start but maintained patience, knowing I didn't need to place a trade today. Found a great setup with trend as shown. A strong bar prior, breaking through 1.2350, then retrace and then this strong bar. Entered on the close and exited near the next close, which was the high of the move.

Gain of 1.1R on the day.

Traded in the afternoon US session again, as I will probably do through this week, as I'm busy helping out my family on a farm in the mornings.

Two trades today. First trade was on the bar close into 1.2250. Looked like we would break lower. We did briefly but then bounced off the support. I exited with a partial loss (would have been stopped out for full loss).

Second trade was a short off the breakout of the previous bar low. I entered this about a minute before the bar close. This ran nicely right off the entry, allowing me to get to b/e within seconds. I took full profit at the first pause, which turned out great, as price pulled all the way back beyond my entry. This rally was brief however, as the bar closed back down near its lows and continued to fall hard in subsequent bars.

Gain of 1.03R on the day.

Got started shortly before the London close today. Had several tempting bars, but didn't take anything right away. I was looking for e/u or g/u longs only as we were near day highs and they had been tested a few times. G/U looked like it might run right up through to new highs but then pulled back again to midBB/ema21. Then another rally. I entered on the break of higher of the IB/ two bar pinbar. I wasn't really entering based on the bar (had 1 min left to close). Price rallied in that last minute over 10 pips. I intended to take partial profits as we approached 1.4400, but accidentally took full profit instead. Turned out to my benefit this time though as the 2nd 1/2 would have been stopped out at b/e two bars later.

Gain of 1.11R today.

Gain of 3.24R on the week. Weekly goal attained. Will raise the size of account I trade with again for next week.

One trade today, shortly after the US open. Decided to get my run in early today because most of Europe was on holiday and it's quite hot here nowadays.

Anyway, we were in a consolidation zone formed after a retrace of the prior breakout. The red line marks the top of the breakout much higher last Thursday (see hourly chart). We fell below that price, then retraced to it, consolidated, and then fell to test the lows (1.2350ish). The bar prior to entry was a nice test of that line and then closed lower than the previous two bars. But we soon retested the red line again. When we again failed to break higher, I shorted (8:39CST). By the time the bar closed, I had moved to b/e.

1/2 off at 1.23642, 1/2 off at 1.23505 (at test of lows).

Gain of 2.62R on the day. Weekly goal met. Monthly Goal met (10R) Will increase risk again next week. There are 38 steps I've set up to get to 1% risk/trade on my full account. I have now completed step 4. Goal is to complete Step 19 (half-way point) by 1/1/2011. 15 steps, 29ish weeks.

Things are going quite well for me the last month or so. I will stick to what I'm doing and won't change my weekly goal until my risk/trade is substantially more than it is now. These weeks give me time to study, refresh, review, meditate, help others, and relax.

Stop thinking so hard with the steps, I got stuck on the "emotion" step for 3 years, then you start risking 2k a trade and guess what it comes back then 5k a trade and so on Work on understanding what is going on, you are starting to get it but some things on the 6pages of trades you missed. The key to all of the is MM, you just need to win 50% and have good MM to make LOTS of cash. Yes the setups matter but how you manage them is much more of a deal then if it worked or not, at this point I don't care if it's a win or loss just if I took a setup that looked okay and that I managed it well. Also I am posting this because I am from Stevens Point