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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #11,881
  • Edited 8:15pm May 2, 2010 7:58pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting trogger
Hello


A polite request for advice/opinions:

Indeed Alexandra, many readers I am sure will be following along and may be concerned as to where we draw the "line in the sand (or dung as Flem prefers)".

I note your final comment:At this point, 93 is a nice (though stingy) protective zone for my positioning...

Those of us still struggling with our "gremlins" look at the charts and think
there is nothing in the Boss or Big Boss to suggest a short (and the "gremlins" say "sure, sure, ..but it's moved...
It's entirely a mater of risk tolerance. Conventional wisdom allows 20-40 pips slippage for a USDJPY S/R stop. I tend to favor weekly and monthly stops, but Strat does not approve of that (wink). Find yourself a nice daily S/R and stick your stop 30 pips from there. If hit, congratulate yourself, wait a day at least and then re-assess. In this case if you are properly long off the doji at 87 you can afford that type of range and keep your 6 big figures.

The overhead resistance noted by some on the thread could justify tightening stops to that 93 area, though I agree that the lower one if better for the "investor." Early returns this evening, however, seem to be showing that the pause was just that. 87.20 on A/J may herald the truth on these pairs. Perhaps the dung has flowered a rose?
  • #11,882
  • May 2, 2010 8:18pm May 2, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting Spinner
The way you have posted the chart looks like the old trendline break and retest, that only may indicate a pause, not necessarily a reversal. I might suggest a look a the higher time frames. It's not quite a coincidence that price is making a stop here is it? Price has stopped in that 1.3559 area four time previously in the last nine years and spiked to 1.3297 once before (nov 07). With the mas so far away in both the weekly and the monthly, the rubber band effect is present, IMHO.

The way we're studying PASR, I think trading countertrend should...
Indeed....not bad!
  • #11,883
  • May 2, 2010 8:20pm May 2, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting simpleman
Hi All,

Could anyone help me if it is OK to go short on Friday shooting star at resistance on NZDUSD? I demo trade.

Thanks
Ouch.

Sorry, but that one is wrong on so many levels. God, it may just work.
  • #11,884
  • May 3, 2010 1:55am May 3, 2010 1:55am
Quoting Lou
What are the Big Boss and Boss telling you?

Where are your Support and Resistance Lines?
Thanks Lou, Alexandra, John

Oh yes they are in uptrend therefore no short.
  • #11,885
  • May 3, 2010 4:36am May 3, 2010 4:36am
Quoting trogger
Hello


A polite request for advice/opinions:

Indeed Alexandra, many readers I am sure will be following along and may be concerned as to where we draw the "line in the sand (or dung as Flem prefers)".

I note your final comment:[color=Blue][i][b]At this point, 93 is a nice (though stingy) protective zone for my...
I seem to be a bit confused by your post. Not quite sure if you're in (and from where) or if you're wanting in (and from where).

As in PASR terms, imho, the trade was either at the long buob on the 24th of March, or even better on the retest of the 92 level. Allowing it can be a countertrend trade (a healthy debate is open). I missed the second trade by a few pips

Then the Stop loss would be around 92.50 (bearing in mind Strat's examples in the past). Now in view of that Friday bearish candle and the fact that price hasn't quite managed 94.70, might be asking for caution and stop loss management.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: u j daily.jpg Size: 125 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #11,886
  • May 3, 2010 5:48am May 3, 2010 5:48am
I love your intro post. That was my trading experience from the start... gurus and signal services and indicators, indicators, indicators, when all along it is simply price action for entrys
Lazy Forex
  • #11,887
  • May 3, 2010 6:29am May 3, 2010 6:29am


Quoting Alexandra
Indeed....not bad!
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #11,888
  • May 3, 2010 10:50am May 3, 2010 10:50am
Hello All

Can anyone find reason/s not to go short @ 1.4215
BEOB if day finishes in a similar to current situation.
besides money management?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD3510.jpg Size: 267 KB
  • #11,889
  • May 3, 2010 11:20am May 3, 2010 11:20am
Quoting Money Magnet
Hello All

Can anyone find reason/s not to go short @ 1.4215
BEOB if day finishes in a similar to current situation.
besides money management?
Hi MM, personally, I'd prefer to sell on a pull back to nearer the top of the range for max benefit and less stress. Nice trend there though,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #11,890
  • May 3, 2010 12:14pm May 3, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting Money Magnet
Hello All

Can anyone find reason/s not to go short @ 1.4215
BEOB if day finishes in a similar to current situation.
besides money management?
This trend has been quite beastly but I don't have data far enough back to see if there is any monthly resistance coming up.

The only thing I can see is that the day hasn't closed below Wed-Friday's swing low. If it closes above or at support that could be a consideration before putting on the trade. That bar is a bit huge for my liking but it may be a good Dr. Joe trade. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #11,891
  • May 3, 2010 7:10pm May 3, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting Money Magnet
Hello All

Can anyone find reason/s not to go short @ 1.4215
BEOB if day finishes in a similar to current situation.
besides money management?


Aussie interest rate announcement later today, Tuesday 4th.

An expected increase to 4.50% would IMO already be largely factored into price, especially given Monday's EURAUD drop of about 200 pips.

One risk in going short now, besides the reasons already given, would be that interest rate may be left unchanged @ 4.25%, causing AUD to weaken short term and thus EURAUD up.

EURAUD currently around 1.4250; 4 hours until interest rate release ...
  • #11,892
  • May 3, 2010 7:52pm May 3, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting Alexandra
Ouch.

Sorry, but that one is wrong on so many levels. God, it may just work.
Alright Alexandra, you win this round. 95 is imminent now. |
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,893
  • May 3, 2010 8:04pm May 3, 2010 8:04pm
A close eye on the 95 handle on the mother ship as it attacks that level. We are pleased with the reversal of Friday's late day nonsense.
  • #11,894
  • May 3, 2010 8:04pm May 3, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting Flem26
Alright Alexandra, you win this round. 95 is imminent now. |
Indeed, it appears we are watching the same chart at the same moment.
  • #11,895
  • May 3, 2010 8:09pm May 3, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting Alexandra
Indeed, it appears we are watching the same chart at the same moment.
I always was a great FADE. Just fade me everyone. You'll make millions.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,896
  • May 3, 2010 8:14pm May 3, 2010 8:14pm
In the spirit of traders helping other traders, here is a link to my collection of Strat’s Pearls of Wisdom covering the thread from page 363-541.

The editing is for my own study purposes only. You may not agree with my emphasis, in which case I have given the page and post references in most cases, so you can go to the original post.

There are Pearls of Wisdom included from contributors other than Strat also.

Contributions from posters other than Strat, the master, are in italics.

Hope it can be useful, especially to the beginners, who are probably finding the size of this thread mind boggling.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Strat's collected Pearls of Wisdom 3 (page 363-548).doc   960 KB | 1,075 downloads
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #11,897
  • May 4, 2010 1:38am May 4, 2010 1:38am
Quoting No1Optimist
In the spirit of traders helping other traders, here is a link to my collection of Strat’s Pearls of Wisdom ...
...Hope it can be useful, especially to the beginners, who are probably finding the size of this thread mind boggling.
Many thanks for this - it is indeed very helpful (how Australian of you)

While I've had a few years experience trading forex, I'm a novice in the Path to Learning and your contribution here will surely be a useful reference point for me going forward.
  • #11,898
  • May 4, 2010 1:55am May 4, 2010 1:55am
Keep that attitude and your PL will reflect your avatar if its not already .


Quoting No1Optimist
In the spirit of traders helping other traders, here is a link to my collection of Strat’s Pearls of Wisdom covering the thread from page 363-541.

The editing is for my own study purposes only. You may not agree with my emphasis, in which case I have given the page and post references in most cases, so you can go to the original post.

There are Pearls of Wisdom included from contributors other than Strat also.

Contributions from posters other than Strat, the master, are in italics.

Hope it can be useful, especially to the beginners, who...
Annoying Precision
  • #11,899
  • Edited 3:48am May 4, 2010 3:34am | Edited 3:48am
Quoting Money Magnet
Hello All

Can anyone find reason/s not to go short @ 1.4215
BEOB if day finishes in a similar to current situation.
besides money management?
Yeay! So it is a proper signal, and you could put a sell order say, 20 pips under the low and you will get some pips....

Yet within "Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading", I think what we're looking for is trades that will give a bit more once entered. At least that's my aim.

So, I agree with the post saying I would wait for price to come up to some SR and give a better profit/loss aim.

Borrowed from Optimist's Collection of Pearls:



(actually , right now price has gone up and you would not be in the trade, yet just the Long Term point).

Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Stress free.jpg Size: 79 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #11,900
  • May 4, 2010 4:32am May 4, 2010 4:32am
Thanks for an excellent newsletter this week Strat + Marcus, well worth signing up on the path to receive this alone.. Keep up the great work gents.
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