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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,401
  • May 1, 2010 11:33am May 1, 2010 11:33am
http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/char...5_image022.gif

http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/char...5_image023.gif
  • #2,402
  • May 1, 2010 1:27pm May 1, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting puks
The same ratio of second job goes in here.

as far as I know prostitution is also legally allowed here in Australia...
Just had to look into it a bit more Seems it's a bit of a mixed bag over your way.

Attached Image


Prostitution legal and regulated
Prostitution (the exchange of sex for money) legal, but organised activities such as brothels and pimping are illegal, prostitution is not regulated

Prostitution in Australia is governed by state and territory laws, which vary considerably. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostitution_in_Australia

Whereas, in NZ:

Prostitution and brothel keeping are legal in New Zealand. Pimping (deriving financial gain from the prostitution of another) is also legal. Street prostitution is also permitted. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostit...in_New_Zealand

As for the Euro, it seems that we should all be the wiser by tomorrow (Sunday):

The Cabinet meets Sunday morning to finalize the measures, with Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou expected to announce them at noon and then immediately fly to Brussels for an emergency meeting of euro-zone finance ministers.

The International Monetary Fund has said it will provide the money over three years, along with Greece's partners in the euro zone. IMF and EU negotiators began talks in Athens on April 21 and continued through Friday.

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Saturday after a meeting of French government officials that she was confident euro-zone finance ministers would approve the package by the end of the weekend. Governments are discussing a package of up to euro120 billion ($159 billion) over three years, she said.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...Wj5WQD9FE5G283
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,403
  • May 1, 2010 1:37pm May 1, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Dan, you are welcome.
thank you for the answer that helps me to get the pic as my political knowledge about UK is limited.

here is my funny prediction:
they say you can see fundamental things on the chart in advance,
looking at the chart and considering what you say, I'll say Labour party will win the election again!!!
however there is a possibility that G/U drops below 1.48 before Thursday election, in that case they might lose!!!
Ah, well politics is my first love! Sad, I know!

I think you're right that the market prices things in advance with a spooky kind of insight. There is no way Labour will win the next election outright... I believe what the market is showing is that we will have a "hung" parliament. If that happens I think the pound will continue down!

As Patience points out the ironic thing is that whenever Labour come to power they bankrupt the UK... the last time was in the late 70's. Then the Conservatives (under Margaret Thatcher) took power and had to make radical changes in order to turn the country around. They restored the UK's finances and the people punished them for it (due to the cuts that were required to save the country) and voted them out in 1997. Then Labour proceeded to bankrupt the country again. Now guess who is going to have to clear up the mess (only problem this time is we haven't got another strong leader like Margaret Thatcher to do it)!

Regards,

Dan
  • #2,404
  • May 2, 2010 8:40am May 2, 2010 8:40am
Quoting DanUK
... the last time was in the late 70's. Then the Conservatives (under Margaret Thatcher) took power and had to make radical changes in order to turn the country around. They restored the UK's finances and the people punished them for it (due to the cuts that were required to save the country) and voted them out in 1997. Then Labour proceeded to bankrupt the country again. Now guess who is going to have to clear up the mess (only problem this time is we haven't got another strong leader like Margaret Thatcher to do it)!...
It'll be a long time before any man in British politics has bigger balls than Maggie Thatcher.
Rob
  • #2,405
  • May 2, 2010 1:12pm May 2, 2010 1:12pm
G/J
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,406
  • May 2, 2010 1:21pm May 2, 2010 1:21pm
U/Cad
A/U

My plan is to sell A/U and buy U/Cad against the top and the bottom
I like to see a rate hike on Aussie to sell even in higher price, I'll be surprise if a rate hike can move this pair above .9400, I consider that level a mid-term top atm
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad1.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,407
  • May 2, 2010 1:46pm May 2, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting hutrader
Here is my AUD/USD.
Hi hutrader, welcome to FF .
it's a good chart for the first post.Looking at the chart ,I can tell you are an experienced trader, keep up the good work
  • #2,408
  • May 2, 2010 2:12pm May 2, 2010 2:12pm
Gold,
I think we will see a 5th wave truncated at 1210 level or a double top at 1225

my Gold wave count is old but still the same view
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,409
  • May 2, 2010 2:33pm May 2, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi hutrader, welcome to FF .
it's a good chart for the first post.Looking at the chart ,I can tell you are an experienced trader, keep up the good work
Thanks,
Seems you are really good as well.
I'm thinking about the same to short Ozzie and maybe also short GU and GJ. Not sure about entry yet but GJ seems to be developing a trendchannel downwards what could turn into a bullflag pattern but it also can fail big time :-) . Will post my chart later on.
  • #2,410
  • May 2, 2010 4:32pm May 2, 2010 4:32pm
E/U ; buy limit order at weekly pivot 1.3280-75 SL=50 TP=TBD

I like the set up- the chart has been posted in the previous page
  • #2,411
  • May 2, 2010 4:44pm May 2, 2010 4:44pm
A/U sell limit at weelky S1 .9320 sl=50 TP=TBD
I like this one, hope we can get the price
  • #2,412
  • May 2, 2010 4:52pm May 2, 2010 4:52pm
U/Cad ;
buy limit at 1.0075-65 sl=30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,413
  • May 2, 2010 5:29pm May 2, 2010 5:29pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Gold,
I think we will see a 5th wave truncated at 1210 level or a double top at 1225

my Gold wave count is old but still the same view
Hey there Shahab..
interesting view... So you also use EW for your setups?
Means the 1188 won't be a possible entry for a short now?
btw.. still holding your short from 1177 from Friday.. or got rid of that one?
WIsh you a nice week and lots of pips of course
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,414
  • Edited 8:46pm May 2, 2010 8:36pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/Cad ;
buy limit at 1.0075-65 sl=30
Hello Guys,

This is my first ports at FF. I have been watching this Thread for a while and learning a lot from it as I am new to Forex.

Shahab8b. I hope you can clarify this for me;

I agree with you to go long USDCAD around 1.0075. But as per the attached image, wouldn't it be a good trade setup to go short now (based on S&R, triple top on 1h, 4h, double top on 1day) until reaching the point that you mentioned to go long? That is almost 100 pips down from what the price is now.

Thank you for your help.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,415
  • May 2, 2010 9:13pm May 2, 2010 9:13pm
depends on your conviction, but eur/aud may see support at tl support - keep in mind it's in a down trend, but reaching all-time lows.

Attached Image
  • #2,416
  • May 3, 2010 12:37am May 3, 2010 12:37am
Quoting Bouzies
Hello Guys,

This is my first ports at FF. I have been watching this Thread for a while and learning a lot from it as I am new to Forex.

Shahab8b. I hope you can clarify this for me;

I agree with you to go long USDCAD around 1.0075. But as per the attached image, wouldn't it be a good trade setup to go short now (based on S&R, triple top on 1h, 4h, double top on 1day) until reaching the point that you mentioned to go long? That is almost 100 pips down from what the price is now.

Thank you for your help.
I suggest that you take a sell first. When price hits the week's MA line at 1.0077 wait to see a swing low form on the 1hr tf before you go long. If you don't see a swing low form at that price level then we might be going to 0.995X region this week. Happy trading!
  • #2,417
  • May 3, 2010 6:28am May 3, 2010 6:28am
Quoting priceaction
It'll be a long time before any man in British politics has bigger balls than Maggie Thatcher.
Rob
Very true!
  • #2,418
  • May 3, 2010 7:17am May 3, 2010 7:17am
Quoting Bouzies
Hello Guys,

This is my first ports at FF. I have been watching this Thread for a while and learning a lot from it as I am new to Forex.

Shahab8b. I hope you can clarify this for me;

I agree with you to go long USDCAD around 1.0075. But as per the attached image, wouldn't it be a good trade setup to go short now (based on S&R, triple top on 1h, 4h, double top on 1day) until reaching the point that you mentioned to go long? That is almost 100 pips down from what the price is now.

Thank you for your help.
Hi there, the concept of a pending order is that you get a price with a good RRR , it does not mean you can get that price for sure, for instance I have pending buy limit order for E/U at 1.3125 and sell limit for Gold at 1200-210, sell limit for A/U at .9400 .So do you think I should go long Gold now till my sell limit order at 1210 ? when you are setting some pending orders you dont expect to get them all, but if you get 1 or 2 you are in a good trade with an appropriate RRR.
in this particular case ,short U/Cad is a reasonable trade and it doesn't mean if I didn't mention that trade it is not good .Moreover, when I'm sharing some ideas here, it doesn't mean necessarily I'm trading them all as sometimes situation changes in my account, such as having draw down more than 5%- which forces me not to take any trade until the situation is resolved.
  • #2,419
  • May 3, 2010 7:20am May 3, 2010 7:20am
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..
interesting view... So you also use EW for your setups?
Means the 1188 won't be a possible entry for a short now?
btw.. still holding your short from 1177 from Friday.. or got rid of that one?
WIsh you a nice week and lots of pips of course
Hi Tuner, my sell limit for gold is 1200-210 adding till 1225 ,with a wide sl at 1245
  • #2,420
  • May 3, 2010 10:45am May 3, 2010 10:45am
Can someone tell me what they have for a Daily PP on A/U? My system is confused at the moment with two values for me... 9266 and 9269 hmm. I need to fix this.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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