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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #62,501
  • May 1, 2010 4:33pm May 1, 2010 4:33pm
I would like to post my view of EU. I believe that we are setting up for a move to 1.3367. A great entry would be 1.3272 with a SL of 1.3252. There is confluence for entry at the 40ema on the hrly along with the 150ema on the 15min chart which dictates a low risk entry there (1.3272). The 365ema on the hrly coincides with the 1.382 ext of the fib I have plotted for my target. I also like the retrace that we are experiencing afte the well formed pin on 1 hr friday. The weekly chart shows risk to the upside with divergence on MACD thereandon the daily chart. Risk is 20 pips and reward is 95.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #62,502
  • May 1, 2010 6:22pm May 1, 2010 6:22pm
Long trade on Daily TF and then Short on Weekly TF.
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  • #62,503
  • May 1, 2010 9:59pm May 1, 2010 9:59pm
Quoting pizdun
gold medal: usd chf weekly

- with trend.
- off fib retracement
- nice looking bar - nose went above the previous high
- 0650 is a daily ppz. if you go short best be at limited risk then. gives round 50 points of the break. and if that doesnt hold down to .05 we go
- the only negative for me is that its not off the1.1 level
-the low is under the .07 level wich is good.

verdict:i would trade this bar
Spot on. It's still in a downtrend from the 4H divergence and there's also a divergence in daily chart. Despite that, the recent bullish TLs with no lower lows and price heading towards heavy traffic makes it need to be babysitted.
  • #62,504
  • May 1, 2010 10:14pm May 1, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting pizdun
lots of charts posted lets try to go throe them one by one.


slightly better: Gbp/ jpy daily pin

- trading in a 140-145 box - ranging market.
- bar itself looks meh
- of the 145 round number and the 365 ma -which is a good area
- i really hate that the nose didnt poke out higher and test the highs of a few days ago
- could easily see 142 on a break.
- could be a trade for more expreianced people - but then again if you are experienced you probably touch traded short at 145

verdictASS
Yes. The pin nose is not long enough. I also think the pin is NOT really at swing high to consider any short trade. As you said, if the nose started at 146 area, it can be considered as swing high area, imo.
  • #62,505
  • May 1, 2010 10:31pm May 1, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting fxeturn
Spot on. It's still in a downtrend from the 4H divergence and there's also a divergence in daily chart. Despite that, the recent bullish TLs with no lower lows and price heading towards heavy traffic makes it need to be babysitted.
USDCHF Weekly Pin bar:
The weekly pin is not within the leftbar. Does this weigh against trading this bar ?
  • #62,506
  • May 1, 2010 11:17pm May 1, 2010 11:17pm
Any thoughts ?

Pros:
Pin size and shape looks ok.
Swing low
Nose is started off from 122.50 (lower than the last 4 weeks)
Closed above 125.06 (Daily ppz)

Also can be conisdered as OB.

Cons: No space.

FTA = 126.00 if it crosses then 127.00
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  • #62,507
  • May 2, 2010 2:50am May 2, 2010 2:50am
Hey everyone, hope you had a great weekend, and great soon starting trading week!

Sorry for offtopic, but it´s nice to see what your trading was few years ago. I just found my old templates.

I tried to watch one of those templates and it included so many indicators that my system crashed It was hilarious..
  • #62,508
  • May 2, 2010 5:27am May 2, 2010 5:27am
Quoting nuclear62
Hey everyone, hope you had a great weekend, and great soon starting trading week!

Sorry for offtopic, but it´s nice to see what your trading was few years ago. I just found my old templates.

I tried to watch one of those templates and it included so many indicators that my system crashed It was hilarious..
Such moments revive us don't they.

My first trading system consisted of three indicators each taking about 1/3 of my screen space...what did that mean? no price bars at all...lol!

here's a snap shot of the holy grail at work.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #62,509
  • May 2, 2010 7:39am May 2, 2010 7:39am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pipage

It didn't close within the prior bar on mine by 1 pip. So not technically a pin, I am sure some feeds will show or it is a proxy pin(see bar with an arrow). I know that sounds nit picky but the reason that matters to me is based off it being firday and maybe it just being some profit taking. If it breaks hard we could see into 67.50 though(blue box).

Have a great weekend
Mike
Hi Mike,
I've been around a while, but havn't posted on this thread yet. Thanks for all the great knowledge.
Can you tell me how you came up with 67.50? I looking at 67 as PPZ.
Thanks
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The market is always right.
  • #62,510
  • May 2, 2010 7:41am May 2, 2010 7:41am
Any comments appreciated--still learning

For-
good size pin off R 94.50 area double top
Closed below BRN 94.00
divergence MACD
365ma above Resistance
1st tgt area 93.50
2nd tgt area 93.00

Against-

traffic area
93.77 some R ---needs to break through--babysit
strength bar two days before

Also---Bank holiday Monday for JPN and GBP----how will this effect the market if any?
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  • #62,511
  • May 2, 2010 8:50am May 2, 2010 8:50am
What are your thoughts on EUR/NZD Daily?

Friday formed a clear pin bar (on GFT UK Dealbook 360) - see attached.

Fundamental news suggest a recovery of EUR against major currencies following indications that an agreement on Greece is within reach.

Shape + fundamentals suggest a pinbar long trade. Thoughts?

EDIT: Other possible pinbars I'm looking at (but none seem as good as the EUR/NZD one shape-wise are):

ES35 - eyes aren't too close together
CHF/JPY - the distance between the eyes is a tad too big
EUR/JPY (rather hesitant to short EUR given the fundamentals)
DKK/JPY - nice reversal, but spread on exotics is a killer.
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  • #62,512
  • May 2, 2010 10:10am May 2, 2010 10:10am
Hi guys,
I've been away from posting for more than 9 months, but reading every single post day by day. I stopped my live trading since then, trying to analize my faults. Today, I feel confident to start sharing my thoughts again. Here it goes.
AUDCHF reached 1.0000 BRN, and a nice weekly PB appeared. Not an easy trade as going into .9880 zone, which has acted as resistance lately, and CT trading.
Getting down into daily, as far as a big BEOB appeared, totally engulfing previous two bars, it looks like the low of last bar @.9937 is far enough from mentioned FTA to allow a certain run. So planning to getting short 2.9925 and moving to BE @ .9880, hopping the low of the weekly bar gets broken. FTA in weekly appears @.9780, so 100 pips look available.
Meanwhile, waiting for the weekend gap...
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Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #62,513
  • May 2, 2010 10:45am May 2, 2010 10:45am
Quoting George C
What are your thoughts on EUR/NZD Daily?

Friday formed a clear pin bar (on GFT UK Dealbook 360) - see attached.

Fundamental news suggest a recovery of EUR against major currencies following indications that an agreement on Greece is within reach.

Shape + fundamentals suggest a pinbar long trade. Thoughts?

EDIT: Other possible pinbars I'm looking at (but none seem as good as the EUR/NZD one shape-wise are):

ES35 - eyes aren't too close together
CHF/JPY - the distance between the eyes is a tad too big
EUR/JPY (rather hesitant to short EUR...

Thank you George. This looks really good to me.. Hoping that experts also shed their opinion on this.

The pin is off from Monthly and weekly PPZ. Pin closed (whole body) within the left bar.
First FTA can be at - 1.8500
If that crossed, we can see - 1.8750 (another ppz on daily)
Target 3 can be - 1.900

The only challenge is the pair has to work hard to move against the trend.
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  • #62,514
  • May 2, 2010 11:26am May 2, 2010 11:26am
About the dollar yen pair.

I watch a daily market report from Jay Norris on Forex TV.
He goes on about May and that traditionally there is a strong rally in price during May.
The pb's shown on the chart for USD/JPY are bearish.

Not experienced enough to say if there is a bull run on the dollar/yen in May but Jay Norris is an old timer so he would know and has no axe to grind over this.
  • #62,515
  • May 2, 2010 11:32am May 2, 2010 11:32am
Quoting cprao
The only challenge is the pair has to work hard to move against the trend.
Yep, but I think the fundamentals will help it there, unless the bailout deal falls through.

EDIT: Just checked CNBC - the deal's done. Over the past few days, the market reacted strongly to news of a Greek bailout; now that it's actually here, the fundamentals would suggest a bullish resurgence.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36897095
  • #62,516
  • May 2, 2010 12:54pm May 2, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting Artie
Hi Mike,
I've been around a while, but havn't posted on this thread yet. Thanks for all the great knowledge.
Can you tell me how you came up with 67.50? I looking at 67 as PPZ.
Thanks
Hey Artie

Glad to see some of you lurkers come out and post

Yes you are correct 67 would be the much more major trouble area but the other round numbers 50s also are going to be trouble areas and if you can find some bar highs or lows there then you can confirm that to be the more "first trouble area". So you are not wrong at all. What I like to do is say how confident am I in my entry? Meaning how strong of an entry. Where is price likely to go?(meaning what are the different trouble areas). Then I make decisions on what to do at these areas and they can vary each time.

Hope this helps a bit
Mike
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  • #62,517
  • May 2, 2010 1:06pm May 2, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting cprao
Thank you George. This looks really good to me.. Hoping that experts also shed their opinion on this.

The pin is off from Monthly and weekly PPZ. Pin closed (whole body) within the left bar.
First FTA can be at - 1.8500
If that crossed, we can see - 1.8750 (another ppz on daily)
Target 3 can be - 1.900

The only challenge is the pair has to work hard to move against the trend.
Yes these can be tricky. Fridays are notorious profit taking days esp in such a strong trend. If the left eye area can't hold I would expect it to fall. But we really need to monitor these first trouble areas(bluebox) extra close in a strong trending market. I really am never comfortable with small bars trying to turn such a strong trend.

Hope everyone had a nice weekend
Mike
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  • #62,518
  • May 2, 2010 1:47pm May 2, 2010 1:47pm
Hello to the group.

I've been lurking and reading the posts on this thread for a few weeks now. I particularly like the focus on price action and on the longer time spans such as daily candles.

At the moment I've not read the whole thread yet but I've managed to understand the basics so far.

At some point I hope to contrubute to the forum and ask questions. I'll try not to ask questions that have been asked before but the thread is rather large so I can't guarantee unique questions!

Dave (aka: djcash)
  • #62,519
  • May 2, 2010 2:44pm May 2, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting Atc

Also---Bank holiday Monday for JPN and GBP----how will this effect the market if any?
Thanks for the reminder. I knew about the GBP holiday but didn't know about the JPY holiday.
  • #62,520
  • May 2, 2010 2:58pm May 2, 2010 2:58pm
FXCM opens at 3 ET for this pair big spreads......pin working....approaching 1st target area
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