Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

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Definitely Australia if you like SSS - Sun, Surf and Sand.

Queensland would be the logical choice as QLDers are quite laidback. sydney you might find a bit too crowded...

but in sydney we get best of both worlds.

it is exactly 1188, the picture is changed a bit , but the level would be the same

Ya.. Those are no easy days for her at the moment.
Whatever the final decision will be.. It won't make her more popular.
We tax-payers are going to carry that in the end. Lots of discussions at the moment.... But we cannot change anything.
Wait and see what the outcome and the effects will be.

The outcome is - you need to make MORE money in forex so that you can pay more tax and save Greece.

In very simple terms, UNFORTUNATELY.

My thoughts are with those Germans who would be working hard to save those thugs in Greece...

Cruel world....

Unfortunately I can't live in the USA but if I could, Florida would be my first choice. You are so lucky. It's really stunning. One of my best holidays. We drove down the Keys and ended up in Key West and watched the spectacular sun set. They had a Harley Davidson convention on in Key West that weekend. It was wild. They always give me a hard time at Customs when I go to the States. It's like I've got criminal printed on my forehead or something. I always end up saying to them "Can't you see what passport I am holding? Why would I want to live here when I can live in the most beautiful country in the world?" lol They just checking my bags

Anyway, this is so not forex related. Hope everyone made some pennies today

that wasn't the plan ,was it?

well, what a week, I closed everything green except one Gold position that I'm going to hold.

this is chart of the month!!
Gold: they call it the next bubble, but is it really a bubble? I'll leave it to you to judge

have a good weekend everyone.

Cruel but true...
the big problem I see...Greece will only be the first candidate.
If they get bailed out now there is no argument not to help if the other candidates knock on the door. Portugal and Ireland would be next in the row I think. We already got debt and a deficit as well just as almost every country at the moment.
After all of the PIIGS are bailed out Germany will need some serious bailout in the end.

My plan for Germany to finance that:

-- Before Merkel goes out the next with the good and final news "Everything is fine" they just should place heavy longs.. leveraged to the sky...market reacts... Nice profits.
--Then Merkel goes out again.. to anounce that Germany will suffer hard itself from the Bailout (after placing some heavy shorts--> EUR collapses heavily --> next profit...
-- next anouncement... positive..
-- next anouncement... negative..
and so on...

Seriously the next years will be hard..
So lets try to earn some pips ourself on here

Happy weekend everyone!

Ha ha - looks like we all favoured shorting the Kiwi. I'm out of my shorts. Can never let my trades run long enough.

SSI: Volatility and a USDCAD Range
Friday, 30 Apr 2010 18:55 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter



Intraday Highlight:

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.53 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.44 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 20.1% lower than yesterday and 28.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 27.5% higher than yesterday and 55.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.2% weaker than yesterday and 16.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.25 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.9% lower than yesterday and 2.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 9.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.0% weaker than yesterday and 8.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.18 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 11.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 18.1% lower than yesterday and 11.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.2% weaker than yesterday and 7.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.23 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 18.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 18.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.5% weaker than yesterday and 1.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.77 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 0.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 8.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.5% weaker than yesterday and 2.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.25 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 17.1% higher than yesterday and 1.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 32.3% lower than yesterday and 16.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.4% weaker than yesterday and 12.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.41 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.31 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.3% lower than yesterday and 11.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.9% lower than yesterday and 30.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.6% weaker than yesterday and 1.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -2.24 as nearly 69% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.63 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.3% lower than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 27.9% higher than yesterday and 66.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 14.5% stronger than yesterday and 32.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

USDX Weekly

Even though the FOMC did some damage to the weekly candle, I'm still favouring gains overall. Bank holiday here in the UK on Monday, AUD Cash Rate on Tuesday, ADP on Wednesday and the UK voters go to the polls on Thursday with NFP on Friday so should be a fairly exciting week. And some reading material for the funnymentalists (although there are charts as well).

G'day Patience, thank you for the L.TSB report , I've been waiting for that.
I went through it twice.
here are few things I wanna ask you:
1-The losing of election (labour party) is bullish for G/U,why?
2-I wonder if you've ever used RR skewness in fx options for trading

COT report:

E/U

I know all of you who have been following the thread know how to read the chart and use it so from now on I skip explaining the obvious and post what I think on the chart.

my preference:

long E/U against the low & switch to short at 1.3475-550

E/U

It's a text book H & Sh, I bet R.Prechter will be right this time -DJI / NASDAQ/ S&P 500 all saying the same thing

I'm super bearish A/U ,A/J, C/J and bullish U/cad

Hi shahab8b,

Nice thread you have here!

I think the answer to Q1 is simply that historically business in the UK does better under Conservative leadership then it does under Labour leadership.

Regards,

Dan

I'm bearish on G/U as far as R at 1.54 holds

+ S&P 500 has .81 correlation with G/U and looking at the pattern (a possible H & Sh) makes me even more bearish on G/U

edit: I've just noticed I labeled (c) as (b) by mistake, I'll change the label later on

Hi Dan, you are welcome.
thank you for the answer that helps me to get the pic as my political knowledge about UK is limited.

here is my funny prediction:
they say you can see fundamental things on the chart in advance,
looking at the chart and considering what you say, I'll say Labour party will win the election again!!!
however there is a possibility that G/U drops below 1.48 before Thursday election, in that case they might lose!!!

Here is my AUD/USD.

G'day Shahab

I'm no election pro, but the Labour party are generally considered the "working class" party and the Conservatives are generally considered the "upper class/wealthy businessmen" party. From what I can gather, the Conservatives are more concerned than Labour about a run on the Pound if cuts in spending aren't implemented imminently whereas Brown is quite happy to let all that money continue sloshing around so as to avoid a double dip. I know that since 1997, when Labour came to power, there have been huge changes in the area that I lived in (East End of London - mainly working class). I'm not so sure that there would have been such radical changes if the Conservatives had been in power as they like to look after their own

It doesn't seem to matter anyway as it looks like the next Government and the Pound are doomed either way.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle7112329.ece

And no, I haven't used that skewness stuff. I was surprised at the Surprise index though. EUR has been surprising to the upside with their data while it has continued declining and the AUD has been suprising to the downside with the data while the currency has continued to hold up in the highs. I'm also surprised at how there are so few of us funnymentalists out there. The report always manages to fill in a few gaps for me.

Below are Monthly, Weekly & Daily charts of A/U, S&P and GLD. Quite interesting to see how A/U is not following GLD at this point and instead sticking very well to the actions on the S&P. With the last candles on all of the charts I will be shorting A/U.