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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,361
  • Apr 30, 2010 8:56am Apr 30, 2010 8:56am
Should be pretty close to a bounce (I hope)

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,362
  • Apr 30, 2010 9:01am Apr 30, 2010 9:01am
Quoting nasir.khan
1182 looks good. IMO

I just started to look into this COT thing and started reading your thread so i'll drop by often with questions.

hope you don't mind.
.

Hi there, you are welcome.
speaking of Gold , it almost doesn't care much about S/R or div, going into the sky and beyond like there is no tomorrow. I really underestimated it's bullishness. but it seems we will see USD strength from now on till NY close
  • #2,363
  • Apr 30, 2010 9:03am Apr 30, 2010 9:03am
Quoting Patience
Should be pretty close to a bounce (I hope)

Attachment
just on time
  • #2,364
  • Apr 30, 2010 9:32am Apr 30, 2010 9:32am
Quoting puks
I have a set S/L and TP (32 pips) and I have forgotten the trade.
I am out of the trade at -25 pips.

doesn't feel right.
  • #2,365
  • Apr 30, 2010 9:34am Apr 30, 2010 9:34am
Quoting Patience
Joined you on that one It's done 104% of it's ADR with high at 0.7317 and 105% of it's AWR. Did you notice how CAD was struggling this morning? I reckon those numbers were leaked.
this pair is of the the pairs that I cant get it right most of the time, I think market is pricing on a rate hike ,isn't it? gold might contribute to it too but that doesnt explain this wild movement
  • #2,366
  • Apr 30, 2010 9:51am Apr 30, 2010 9:51am
Quoting shahab8b
this pair is of the the pairs that I cant get it right most of the time, I think market is pricing on a rate hike ,isn't it? gold might contribute to it too but that doesnt explain this wild movement
They were pretty bullish but were disappointed with the RBNZ's language after the OCR announcement.

This was an article before the rate announcement http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mark...-of-OCR-review

And an article after the announcement http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mark...vernight-boost

I found this comment the most interesting.

``The NZD came back in favour, and indeed could even benefit from ongoing eurozone turmoil. Asset managers, including central banks, who are diversifying away from USD will be having second thoughts about reallocating into euros. Gold and commodity currencies seem to be the next best alternative.''

Did you know NZ is first in a list of the most politically stable/honest countries? They are greedy the NZ government. They legalised prostitution about the same time they banned smoking in public places. They ain't stupid. Got to get the tax money from somewhere else.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,367
  • Apr 30, 2010 9:55am Apr 30, 2010 9:55am
Quoting Patience
They were pretty bullish but were disappointed with the RBNZ's language after the OCR announcement.
They legalised prostitution about the same time they banned smoking in public places. They ain't stupid. Got to get the tax money from somewhere else.
The same rule goes here in Australia. We banned smoking in public in July 2007 or 2008 - can't exactly remember the year.
  • #2,368
  • Apr 30, 2010 9:57am Apr 30, 2010 9:57am
Quoting puks
The same rule goes here in Australia. We banned smoking in public in July 2007 or 2008 - can't exactly remember the year.
Yeah, but you didn't legalise prostitution. Very hard for the average person to get ahead in NZ imo. When I was working there many years ago any second jobs were instantly taxed at 33%. I imagine that hasn't changed.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,369
  • Apr 30, 2010 9:58am Apr 30, 2010 9:58am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
this pair is of the the pairs that I cant get it right most of the time, I think market is pricing on a rate hike ,isn't it? gold might contribute to it too but that doesnt explain this wild movement
Hey there Shahab..
You are right. crazy moves today. Watched the charts from work for a bit.
Could bite my a** on beein stopped out (by a pip!) on my Long EG this morning before it shooted straight up to my target (weekly pivot)
Gold ended as a BE again. Should have done what I actually wanted. setting SL above UTL of the "correction-channel" would have been some pips at least then)
That Gold is doin pretty crazy.... as most of the other pairs today.
--> month-end profit taking with buyers/sellers comin in directly after that?!
whatever it is... I might stay out of that game for now.

Did you cash-in your G/U?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,370
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:02am Apr 30, 2010 10:02am
Quoting Patience
They were pretty bullish but were disappointed with the RBNZ's language after the OCR announcement.

This was an article before the rate announcement http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mark...-of-OCR-review

And an article after the announcement http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mark...vernight-boost

I found this comment the most interesting.

``The NZD came back in favour, and indeed could even benefit from ongoing eurozone turmoil. Asset managers, including...

Thanx for the links. that's a good reason for Gold & silver appreciation.
yea , I knew NZ is a very stable country but didn't know they legalized that one , that's a good thing though, they cant stop it anyway so better get some revenue out of it.
btw, you were born in a nice country, dont want to come back there and stay?
  • #2,371
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:04am Apr 30, 2010 10:04am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Patience
Yeah, but you didn't legalise prostitution. Very hard for the average person to get ahead in NZ imo. When I was working there many years ago any second jobs were instantly taxed at 33%. I imagine that hasn't changed.
We did legalize it as well here in Germany..Think it was already in 2001...
That money to (help) bailout must come from somewhere
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,372
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:13am Apr 30, 2010 10:13am
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..
You are right. crazy moves today. Watched the charts from work for a bit.
Could bite my a** on beein stopped out (by a pip!) on my Long EG this morning before it shooted straight up to my target (weekly pivot)
Gold ended as a BE again. Should have done what I actually wanted. setting SL above UTL of the "correction-channel" would have been some pips at least then)
That Gold is doin pretty crazy.... as most of the other pairs today.
--> month-end profit taking with buyers/sellers comin in directly after that?!
whatever it is......
Hey Tuner, yes I did, fist at 50 pips 2nd at daily pivot 1.5266 80+ pips
you know what I understand I see people looking at 4h chart and taking trad based on that and the they expect to TP in minutes, that doenst work that way, if you are taking trade based on a 4Hr chart you need to give it a day at least
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  • #2,373
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:16am Apr 30, 2010 10:16am
E/U short went well
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  • #2,374
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:23am Apr 30, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Patience
Yeah, but you didn't legalise prostitution. Very hard for the average person to get ahead in NZ imo. When I was working there many years ago any second jobs were instantly taxed at 33%. I imagine that hasn't changed.
The same ratio of second job goes in here.

as far as I know prostitution is also legally allowed here in Australia...
  • #2,375
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:23am Apr 30, 2010 10:23am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hey Tuner, yes I did, fist at 50 pips 2nd at daily pivot 1.5266 80+ pips
you know what I understand I see people looking at 4h chart and taking trad based on that and the they expect to TP in minutes, that doenst work that way, if you are taking trade based on a 4Hr chart you need to give it a day at least
Nice one!..
It did overshoot a bit on that weekly pivot last night but then come down nicely.
Missed that trade..
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,376
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:26am Apr 30, 2010 10:26am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
All my Shorts on Gold this week ended in BE or some pips only.
Took another look on the daily now.

Just my thoughts:
One of those 2 UTL could be the area for a turn-around.
yellow one was almost touched today...
for the red one still a bit to go. But think I'll try another short if we get to that 1188 area.
if that one doesn't stop us we could even see a new high?!?

edit: that candle of Apr 12th looks somehow wrong..(on my other account it looks more like shooting star. but still same high)

Shahab didn't you mention that area as well some time ago?.. remember something...
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,377
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:33am Apr 30, 2010 10:33am
Quoting shahab8b
btw, you were born in a nice country, dont want to come back there and stay?
Not really but I've had enough of the UK. Looking at either Australia or maybe Northern Cyprus (haven't checked out Northern Cyprus yet but a friend of mine has an empty apartment in a new development). I don't really care as long as it has sun. Lie by the pool with my laptop, 10 minutes to the beach - isn't that what we all aspire to? Well I do
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,378
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:39am Apr 30, 2010 10:39am
Where do u get thse COT charts? . i see the reports on the cftc site but no charts
  • #2,379
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:39am Apr 30, 2010 10:39am
Quoting Tuner
We did legalize it as well here in Germany..Think it was already in 2001...
That money to (help) bailout must come from somewhere
Okay, didn't know that. I feel sorry for Angela Merkel. What a decision.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,380
  • Apr 30, 2010 10:42am Apr 30, 2010 10:42am
Quoting Patience
Not really but I've had enough of the UK. Looking at either Australia or maybe Northern Cyprus (haven't checked out Northern Cyprus yet but a friend of mine has an empty apartment in a new development). I don't really care as long as it has sun. Lie by the pool with my laptop, 10 minutes to the beach - isn't that what we all aspire to? Well I do
North Cyprus, that would be a nice place to live. I have been in Larnaca & Nicosia. if you like that kind of climate you should consider coming to Florida then
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