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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #62,401
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:47am Apr 30, 2010 1:47am
Quoting esbatu
Hi Jarroo, would you say that the loss on this trade is inevitable? Meaning that this was one of those good setups that doesn't work out?
Quoting esbatu
Hi SC, yes that's the one. Well i was aware of that single bar high. But with such a good set up and that size of BEOB bar I didn't expect that single bar high would present any trouble. Instead I expected the price to went down at least to 1.64 level before it bounced (same as Jarroo analysis). Even when I look back at the trade right now, I still come out with the same conclusion. So I really would like some opinion on this particular trade.
I believe we can learn more from losing trades than winning trades.
Inevitable loss? Maybe , I didn't trade it but I sure watched it like I did.

Noticing that once Price hit that bar high (green line) then went up and showed no sign of testing the break was a red flag. This is easy to say after the fact but let me show some high quality setups on the same pair that acted the way their suppose too.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,402
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:48am Apr 30, 2010 1:48am
Quoting lovejoy80
Nope, not misled...it's from my experience knowing people with large enough accounts where tax matters. That link is just one part of the picture, it's not black and white. All I was pointing out was it's not as simple as 'it's tax free' and also you'll find that a higher proportion of professional UK forex traders dont SB...SB is designed for small account holders, you will find it hard to SB with a large account.
What do the large account holders do?

Also how do they trade as tax entities? My day job is as an IT contractor and I do this through my own UK LTD company. Do the larger account holders trade FX through their own incorporated companies or as sole traders?
Anything can happen.
  • #62,403
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:59am Apr 30, 2010 1:59am
Quoting jarroo
Inevitable loss? Maybe , I didn't trade it but I sure watched it like I did.

Noticing that once Price hit that bar high (green line) then went up and showed no sign of testing the break was a red flag. This is easy to say after the fact but let me show some high quality setups on the same pair that acted the way their suppose too.

One can say that the yesterday's setup was not at a swing high but in a consoldation area. Well the consolidation area was at swing high and I've seen them work out just fine, especially at a BRN, 1.6500.

Anyway, let's look at the 2 Day PB Nov. 2009 and end of Jan PB of this year.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,404
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:37am Apr 30, 2010 2:37am
Quoting jarroo
One can say that the yesterday's setup was not at a swing high but in a consoldation area. Well the consolidation area was at swing high and I've seen them work out just fine, especially at a BRN, 1.6500.

Anyway, let's look at the 2 Day PB Nov. 2009 and end of Jan PB of this year.
The 2 Day PB (Nov. 17-18) looks strong in structure (Close in lower then the Open). . big bars off a BRN, 1.7000. A bit more traffic than we would like but tradable in my book.

4 Hour Chart. Well looky there, after the 2 Day formed an 8 hour PB is formed. Juicy. What a great added confirmation that this 2 Day PB has a good chance.

Price breaks the 8 Hour PB and then hangs around and then breaks 2 Day PB. Price doesn't even look back or tests the 8 hour PB once the 2 Day is broken. Sweet. Price then hangs round the 2 day PB break. This could be because the time of day, this happen during the Asian session. London is when it starts moving.

Price continues and hits the Daily 1st target and breaks through. Then it test the 1st target. Then it continues and breaks through the 2nd target then . . you guess it . . starts test it again.

Continuous movement in our direction.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,405
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:53am Apr 30, 2010 2:53am
Quoting jarroo
One can say that the yesterday's setup was not at a swing high but in a consoldation area...
Anyway, let's look at the 2 Day PB Nov. 2009 and end of Jan PB of this year.
if we look at the finer details, the latter two are protruding (imho, these two were upside 'false breaks'). whereas the yesterday's BEOB (now formed a BUOB or a 2-bar daily PB) is embedded entirely in the consolidation.
  • #62,406
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:57am Apr 30, 2010 2:57am
Quoting jarroo
The 2 Day PB (Nov. 17-18) looks strong in structure (Close in lower then the Open). . big bars off a BRN, 1.7000. A bit more traffic than we would like but tradable in my book.

4 Hour Chart. Well looky there, after the 2 Day formed an 8 hour PB is formed. Juicy. What a great added confirmation that this 2 Day PB has a good chance.

Price breaks the 8 Hour PB and then hangs around and then breaks 2 Day PB. Price doesn't even look back or tests the 8 hour PB once the 2 Day is broken. Sweet. Price then hangs round the 2 day PB break. This could...
Jan. PB again same nice features as the other one but a bit of traffic.

4 hour/ Hourly chart, Price breaks hard . . that's what I'm talking about baby. We can see on the Hourly the breaks and retests of the respective targets.

Price then retraces hard back in the setup but we are not surprised why it did what it did.

Now esbatu go look at yesterday's gbp/chf and look at the 4 hour and hourly charts and see if you can see the difference between these examples of how price behaved after it broke. (shoot . . you can tell by the Daily lol)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,407
  • Edited 4:27am Apr 30, 2010 3:09am | Edited 4:27am
Quoting supremeChaos
if we look at the finer details, the latter two are protruding (imho, these two were upside 'false breaks'). whereas the yesterday's BEOB (now formed a BUOB or a 2-bar daily PB) is embedded entirely in the consolidation.
Good observation sChoas. The latter two were on top of a consoldation"ish" area where as yesterday's was inside as with the 4-23 BEOB as well. This could be the difference to give it a pass.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,408
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:15am Apr 30, 2010 3:15am
got no charts, but...
it's month-end..
to me, audusd daily, weekly & monthly look bullish.
shall we reach 0.9800 - 1.00 (parity)?? {probably +/- 3rd quarter 2010}
or
will we stall at/prior 0.94?
we will see
  • #62,409
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:24am Apr 30, 2010 3:24am
Quoting joelcf

Stick around and help me justify my NBG speculative play, lol

I would wait for break/pull back and pull the trigger on the retest with a tight stop on that PB joel. Looks good in size. but then again you know what they say about counter trend trades. .

keep us up to date on this . . what ever it is.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,410
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:29am Apr 30, 2010 3:29am
Sir jarroo,
it's National Bank of Greece.
Greece..
Greece..
huge volume on that pin.... (highest volume in at least 10yrs)
it could be a start of an uptrend. joel's buying it cheap

wait, i think i need to open my first stock trading account soon, heheh
  • #62,411
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:30am Apr 30, 2010 3:30am
Quoting supremeChaos
Sir jarroo,
it's National Bank of Greece.
lol Thanks.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,412
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:44am Apr 30, 2010 3:44am
Quoting jarroo
Man . . I'll tell you skin . . it seems right when I posted the post above . . Price shot straight up to the moon. The 1.64 was a reasonable expectation for this setup. Virtually no traffic except for that previous High (green line). No testing of the break and a little hesitation at the 1.65 (as we would expect) then to the moon Alice.

It is, what it is (never cared for that expression) but its true. There was a target. A previous bar High.

What does it tell me? That the up trend is very strong. If a high quality setup, which I categorize...
Hi Jim,

Thanks for the follow-up. So at which point and which Time Frame should i look at to cut-losses instead of taking a full bar loss.

Rgds,
skin
  • #62,413
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:45am Apr 30, 2010 3:45am
Anyone take this one. Now this is a hard and fast break example.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,414
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:48am Apr 30, 2010 3:48am
Quoting jarroo
I would say I'm pretty rigid but I understand yours and Joel's...
Thanks Jaroo - like your thinking - various options allowed with net zero loss in worst case scenario of failed moonshot (the Apollo 13 successful failure scenario - home safe but with considerably less hassle!). Great stuff and thanks again.

J
  • #62,415
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:51am Apr 30, 2010 3:51am
Quoting skinfx
Hi Jim,

Thanks for the follow-up. So at which point and which Time Frame should i look at to cut-losses instead of taking a full bar loss.

Rgds,
skin
When I have a setup that I will trade, I have the Daily, 4 hour and Hourly Open on the same pair. I have my 1st target and FTAs in clear view. If it doesn't break hard and fast I watch how Price behaves. If it does act as it suppose to I'll cut it quick and question my selection of the setup.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,416
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:53am Apr 30, 2010 3:53am
Quoting jspeakman
Thanks Jaroo - like your thinking - various options allowed with net zero loss in worst case scenario of failed moonshot (the Apollo 13 successful failure scenario - home safe but with considerably less hassle!). Great stuff and thanks again.

J

I hope it helped.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,417
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:59am Apr 30, 2010 3:59am
Quoting mbqb11
Trigger(really just using your posts as a springboard to rant )

I mean this in a very nice way I think you have missed a lot of key points brought up by seniors and long time members....
Hi Mike

Been wondering about looking at more pairs. Currently looking at around 30 pairs and not finding much to trade lately. Is it worth looking at more obscure currencies (Albanian Lek/Mongolian Tugrik! or EU/HUF someone posted recently - I thought the spreads might not make them worth trading. Or looking at stocks/commodities possibly?

Thanks

J
  • #62,418
  • Apr 30, 2010 4:00am Apr 30, 2010 4:00am
DBLHC or Triple Bar, how much pips different allow the double bar low?
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Dancing with Candlesticks
  • #62,419
  • Apr 30, 2010 4:01am Apr 30, 2010 4:01am
Quoting jarroo
Anyone take this one. Now this is a hard and fast break example.
awesome, Sir.
might encounter a buying spree soon.
  • #62,420
  • Apr 30, 2010 4:05am Apr 30, 2010 4:05am
Quoting jspeakman
...Is it worth looking at more obscure currencies (Albanian Lek/Mongolian Tugrik! or EU/HUF someone posted recently - I thought the spreads might not make them worth trading. Or looking at stocks/commodities possibly?
...
Hello jspeakman,
if i may...

lol.. Albanian Lek etc???
spreads may eat u alive.
Mike posted the eurhuf chart.
why not look at stocks &/or commodities etc for more charts
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