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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #62,381
  • Apr 29, 2010 10:56pm Apr 29, 2010 10:56pm
esbatu,
are u referring to skinfx's BEOB?
depending on your perspective, it worked out/didnt work out.
jarroo has pointed out a bar high (marked as dark green horizontal line) that held as support (i remember in 1of james16's videos wherein he points out single bar high/lows stopping price too).
some people ignore single bar highs/lows... these charts show that 'ignoring one bar high/low' (& dismissing it as 'unimportant') is sometimes detrimental.
  • #62,382
  • Apr 29, 2010 10:58pm Apr 29, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting Cyrus
....
Indeed, as Mike said sometime back, PASR will add juice to any method.
The method... well it's up to the individual.
i think in most/all cases, PASR should be the bedrock.
  • #62,383
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:01pm Apr 29, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting StoragePro
Tell me - You and I can both trade an identical method - one of us wins and one of us loses. (more like 95% lose and 5% win, I'm just using me and you as an example to make a point.)

What was the difference between us? Same charts, same system, same capitalization.
I'd probably argue that we werent trading the same system/method, in that case If we were, we would have the same entry and same exit.

Quoting StoragePro
The answer is obvious, it is your head - also known as psychology. You and I have seen people take the same dang bar - and lose money, while others are up multiple R. Psychology.
What you call psychology, I just call a trading approach. You take the trade with the aim of letting it play out or stop out, I take it with the aim of getting to x.xxxx and closing out. Hard break vs full bar drawdown entry to a trend.

I dont see a big mental aspect to that scenario, unless you take your trade and start panicking and burst into tears because the forex is going to take your house and so you abandon your plan. In which case, maybe trading (or life in general) isnt for you


Quoting StoragePro
Even you have made posts to the effect of - "You see the setup and you simply take it. What is the big deal?" That is psychology.
Making an objective decision on some information in front of you? I think you are stretching the definition there a little. If you want to define 'psychology' as encompassing every concious decision we make, then sure.

Quoting StoragePro
And why do people take highly marginal crap at times? Wishful thinking - or - psychology, of you will.
I take marginal bars when there is a a +EV situation. SCPBs, for instance. Anyone following this thread (or quite possibly any trading thread) will see some marginal trades floated or traded. BUt is it really wishful thinking, or is it just a fundamental misunderstanding of what you are doing? To a newbie, a pin in traffic is a pin. And a pin is a trade, right? I sure as hell made that mistake a few times.

Quoting StoragePro
Or try this on - Why is it that nearly every trader on this thread has decided that grabbing the first fractional part of an overall move is 'great'? Is it because they cannot endure the eventual pull back or even draw down after being up 1 or 2 R to even dream of much higher returns? That, my friend is psychology - AKA 'fear'.
I dont think so, at all. I think the people using that method have just defined a target where price should hit, and so they sell when it gets hit. I dont see any fear there. Just a different approach to people who aim for a longer move.

Quoting StoragePro
Why does James himself repeated say that it is very unlikely anyone will make it until they capitalize a large account? Because of that very fear.
I'd say that one is less about fear and more about simple math. If 'making it' entails trading for your living, then undercapitalisation is only going to necessitate overtrading to meet your fixed expenses, which inevitably entails taking suboptimal trades.


Quoting StoragePro
But what the heck do I know.
Alot more than most - me included. You know I respect you and you are one of the few people I talk to about trading outside of the threads. So I am not saying you are wrong and I am right. I think we just look at it a little differently.

I was talking about a specific range of scenarios - people spending their time on Mark Douglass-esque feelgood cliches like 'it is your state of mind that determines your results' and 'you get the return you think you deserve'.

I call bullshit on that argument. You can have the best state of mind in the world. You can be the god damn Dalai Lama. But if you are trying to swing trade long EURAUD positions or trade some retarded astrology system, you are going to lose. Cart before horse, golf shoes before swing and all that.

If you are a profitable trader, can it be a leak? Sure. And if that is hindering your progress or account balance, then there is a benefit to working on it. Same as tax minimisation, platform latency and whether you need another monitor. But the guy who just started reading the thread and is on his demo account? Focus on the fundamentals and make sure you have a working methodology before you start thinking that its your 'mental game' that is stopping you from buying that yacht.

All I was really saying (or, as it seems, trying to say and missing the mark?) is that alot of people focus on 'psychology' because it is an easier, non-measurable thing that they can 'work on', rather than taking an objective look at their methodology and whether or not it is profitable.

Then again, maybe there is some psychology in that

Either way, its definitely thought provoking.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #62,384
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:03pm Apr 29, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting StoragePro;

Why does James himself repeated say that it is very unlikely anyone will make it until they capitalize a large account? Because of that very fear. The very act of growing an account 1R or fractions thereof is extraordinarily difficult. So he advises to demo trade until you have the money. Not a bad way to go - if you have a decade or a few to burn - or want to.

But what would happen, if you cleared the cobwebs a bit - and simply allowed the market to move - and you moved with it? With the PA knowledge taught here, we have a pretty good idea where price is headed - and it usually does not disappoint - does it? Being willing to endure a little drawdown can yield huge rewards. Learning to exploit a trend - long or short in duration with adding in or reentry into it can rapidly build an account.

But it takes a very different mindset to do this. Or dare I say, psychology.

But what the heck do I know.
I respectfully disagree with para1. Again, that's how big man James did it. As I mentioned a few times here b4, I have a close friend that made about 1000% in the past 7 months. Turned a small 4 fig a/c to a high 5 figure one.
It's about comfort zone, and the willingness to challenge the opinions of others... and find your own.

I concur fully on para2. To catch a tiger, you need a big trap. To catch marlin, you need to use tuna. Michael Marcus said is well, (I paraphrase) you have to ensure that you let your profits run, so that it not only makes up for your losers, but it also pays you well.

What do any of us know?
Some one I was talking to said this
"each one of us needs to find his own understanding of what's happening in the markets. Or suffer using someone else's understanding."

Hope I didn't rustle too many feathers. Time to bail.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #62,385
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:06pm Apr 29, 2010 11:06pm
Quoting joelcf;
All I was really saying (or, as it seems, trying to say and missing the mark?) is that alot of people focus on 'psychology' because it is an easier, non-measurable thing that they can 'work on', rather than taking an objective look at their methodology and whether or not it is profitable.
Ahh... the mental jack off mate?
Aka denial in certain contexts.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #62,386
  • Edited Apr 30, 2010 1:32am Apr 29, 2010 11:09pm | Edited Apr 30, 2010 1:32am
Quoting Cyrus
Ahh... the mental jack off mate?
Aka denial in certain contexts.
They study psychology because their psychology means they are too scared to examine anything other than psychology! I think my brain just exploded.


Quoting Cyrus
Hope I didn't rustle too many feathers. Time to bail.
Stick around and help me justify my NBG speculative play, lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nbg.PNG Size: 16 KB
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #62,387
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:11pm Apr 29, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting Cyrus
Hope I didn't rustle too many feathers. Time to bail.
Like Jim says

Quoting james16
like ive said before.

the only thing i know for sure is i dont know anything for sure.

And I think anyone who doesn't think this is in for a world of hurt
  • #62,388
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:20pm Apr 29, 2010 11:20pm
both sides of the discussion have merits.
personally, im the 'outlier' type.. so i just & listen on the sidelines.
  • #62,389
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:24pm Apr 29, 2010 11:24pm
Quoting supremeChaos
esbatu,
are u referring to skinfx's BEOB?
depending on your perspective, it worked out/didnt work out.
jarroo has pointed out a bar high (marked as dark green horizontal line) that held as support (i remember in 1of james16's videos wherein he points out single bar high/lows stopping price too).
some people ignore single bar highs/lows... these charts show that 'ignoring one bar high/low' (& dismissing it as 'unimportant') is sometimes detrimental.
Hi SC, yes that's the one. Well i was aware of that single bar high. But with such a good set up and that size of BEOB bar I didn't expect that single bar high would present any trouble. Instead I expected the price to went down at least to 1.64 level before it bounced (same as Jarroo analysis). Even when I look back at the trade right now, I still come out with the same conclusion. So I really would like some opinion on this particular trade.
I believe we can learn more from losing trades than winning trades.
  • #62,390
  • Edited 11:46pm Apr 29, 2010 11:35pm | Edited 11:46pm
Hello esbatu,
think of it more in the lines of 'the trend is the reason/culprit' than 'a single bar high stopped price'.
up to this point the uptrend is strong... lower prices are used as cheap entries. (plot a fib from 9 or 12bars back.. check it out.. probably a retracement entry)
i mentioned it in my previous post(last week). Sir jarroo earlier mentioned it too.

whether we have a good or mediocre setup at hand, (talking specifically about trouble areas) i think we must look at all the possible traffic areas that price may head into. in this case, u may have ignored that bar high &/or dismissed the potential of a good/strong uptrend since u were presented a 'good setup' (the BEOB).


Quote
Even when I look back at the trade right now, I still come out with the same conclusion...
what helps is looking at the same setup with fresh eyes or a new/different perspective.
of course, if u look at it with the same view, then nothing will change.

Hope this helps
  • #62,391
  • Apr 30, 2010 12:08am Apr 30, 2010 12:08am
Morning all,

Can I get an opinion on the BUOB on GBP/CHF daily?

Can't see any trouble areas until 1.6650, nice space and closed above the BRN. I see there is CHF news due out in about 3 hours though :/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 13 KB
Anything can happen.
  • #62,392
  • Apr 30, 2010 12:18am Apr 30, 2010 12:18am
Quoting ddinnov
Morning all,

Can I get an opinion on the BUOB on GBP/CHF daily?

Can't see any trouble areas until 1.6650, nice space and closed above the BRN. I see there is CHF news due out in about 3 hours though :/
Hey DD

Yep you nailed it with your first trouble area , analysis is fine. Don't worry about the news . I do see you entered before the break and with a tight stop. No problems if that is what you have tested, but remember a bar is not valid till the high breaks and of course invalid till the low breaks

Mike
  • #62,393
  • Apr 30, 2010 12:18am Apr 30, 2010 12:18am
Quoting ddinnov
Morning all,

Can I get an opinion on the BUOB on GBP/CHF daily?

Can't see any trouble areas until 1.6650, nice space and closed above the BRN. I see there is CHF news due out in about 3 hours though :/
I can tell you what I'm personally doing.

Using it as a predictor of a break high. Waiting for a signal from the top side after that. Not just entering the break.

Had the following chart drawn up for a while (weekly for perspective).
Blue box area as possible target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbfchf weekly after daily buob.gif Size: 16 KB
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #62,394
  • Apr 30, 2010 12:22am Apr 30, 2010 12:22am
Quoting joelcf
Wanna go halves in setting up a brokerage?
LOL ... Yeah, well probably an easier way even again.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #62,395
  • Apr 30, 2010 12:46am Apr 30, 2010 12:46am
Quoting Daneel
I've almost certain you have been mislead there....
Nope, not misled...it's from my experience knowing people with large enough accounts where tax matters. That link is just one part of the picture, it's not black and white. All I was pointing out was it's not as simple as 'it's tax free' and also you'll find that a higher proportion of professional UK forex traders dont SB...SB is designed for small account holders, you will find it hard to SB with a large account.
  • #62,396
  • Apr 30, 2010 12:49am Apr 30, 2010 12:49am
Quoting supremeChaos
Hello esbatu,
think of it more in the lines of 'the trend is the reason/culprit' than 'a single bar high stopped price'.
Hi SC, yes I am also aware that the uptrend is strong that is why I do not expect a trend reversal on this set up but only a shallow dip.

Quoting supremeChaos
...we must look at all the possible traffic areas that price may head into. In this case, ...that bar high
I agree with you on the above point, but then again we also must decide whether that bar high will hold as support or price will just cut through it based on the setup we are seeing. If we see every bar high/low as FTA then we will get paralyzed by that, making almost every setup untradeable (I think Nasir coined that term) since there will always be bar high/low nearby. Of course in hindsight, we can always find a bar high/ low and say it acted as s/r and price turn because of it.

Perhaps, for those of you who took the trade can join our discussion here, and share your analysis about this trade, especially your FTA.

For you SC, you know your post always help.
  • #62,397
  • Edited 1:43am Apr 30, 2010 1:32am | Edited 1:43am
esbatu,
imho, it cannot be 'in hindsight' because the support (bar high) was there prior the trade. it's a matter of seeing it, recognizing it & not ignoring it.

Quote
..If we see every bar high/low as FTA then we will get paralyzed by that, making almost every setup untradeable..
i didnt imply that u should treat every bar high/low as FTA (first target area).
what i meant is we should be aware of minor bumps (traffic area such as this bar high) so we wont fall/slip because of it (we wont get surprised on what happens). it seems u dismissed this bar high as a 'minor (useless) bump' so u discarded it entirely in your trade management.
if we were aware of the bumps (minor & major trouble/traffic areas), then it's a matter of reacting (exit, reduce risk, etc).

btw, i checked gbpchf charts...
if u plot a fib upwards from the April14 or 19 lows, u will see that it indeed is a 50fib retracement (went slightly past 50fib ret).
when price touched 1/6420 area, price made a quick reversal towards/above 1.6500.
also on H4, april15 & 16 highs (1.6390-95) may have played apart. so it turns out that it's not necessarily a 1-bar high bump/issue.
  • #62,398
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:32am Apr 30, 2010 1:32am
Quoting joelcf

Stick around and help me justify my NBG speculative play, lol

Attachment
"When you have to shoot, shoot. don't talk" ?

Quoting mbqb11
And I think anyone who doesn't think this is in for a world of hurt
Yup. =) but there are also some thing that can get quite close to the "sure thing". What tt is is different for everyone though.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #62,399
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:38am Apr 30, 2010 1:38am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey DD

Yep you nailed it with your first trouble area , analysis is fine. Don't worry about the news . I do see you entered before the break and with a tight stop. No problems if that is what you have tested, but remember a bar is not valid till the high breaks and of course invalid till the low breaks

Mike
Thanks Mike - so a safer alternative would be to place a buy stop a few pips above the high of the BUOB?
Anything can happen.
  • #62,400
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:40am Apr 30, 2010 1:40am
Quoting bundyraider
I can tell you what I'm personally doing.

Using it as a predictor of a break high. Waiting for a signal from the top side after that. Not just entering the break.

Had the following chart drawn up for a while (weekly for perspective).
Blue box area as possible target.
Thanks Bundy That looks like a nice target if it plays out
Anything can happen.
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