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AUD/USD

  • #21,501
  • Apr 29, 2010 6:56pm Apr 29, 2010 6:56pm
Aud should hit 9347 by the end of this week and then go up for 2 more weeks before any major retrace. Later in the second week in May should see it make a move back towards 90ish but in the meantime it should continue up touching 94 and maybe higher.
  • #21,502
  • Apr 29, 2010 7:41pm Apr 29, 2010 7:41pm
Quoting Clouds
That would not surprise me, but usd/cad would have to break it's TL , currently it's just above it, and nzd/usd would have to take out .7250.
Not impossible, but .93 is where I have been planning to sell. it doesn't bother me much that it went 20 pips above the DT TL, cause TL's to me aren't precise, just more of a rough gauge.
I had also planned to short 9300 originally yesterday but my short orders were not filled at the first test.

But have since changed my mind ,now watching the triangle breakout and flagpole/flag forming on the 15 and 30 mins to see how it plays out. Unless it starts to break down below 9270 and 9250 soon, may even try the long side later.
  • #21,503
  • Apr 29, 2010 7:48pm Apr 29, 2010 7:48pm
Quoting blurbear
I had also planned to short 9300 originally yesterday but my short orders were not filled at the first test.

But have since changed my mind ,now watching the triangle breakout and flagpole/flag forming on the 15 and 30 mins to see how it plays out. Unless it starts to break down below 9270 and 9250 soon, may even try the long side later.
Curious why you changed your mind since you had planned to short at .93. Is it because it went to .9313?
  • #21,504
  • Apr 29, 2010 7:56pm Apr 29, 2010 7:56pm
I'm Short @ 0.92999.

Going for 20 Pips.
  • #21,505
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:00pm Apr 29, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting Clouds
Curious why you changed your mind since you had planned to short at .93. Is it because it went to .9313?
Not really. Just dun feel good. It seems poised to test higher. Will only consider shorting if it breaks below 9250 decisively. Otherwise, like I said, the Bat pattern can easily become a Crab pattern, which means possibility of being squeezed to 9415 and higher if I try short here.

Plus the move from 9222-9293 and retracement to 9257? smells of a 5-0 pattern in essence.

Thats why I changed my mind.
  • #21,506
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:08pm Apr 29, 2010 8:08pm
I have also changed my mind on shorting the AUS/USD on seeing the 4H breakout. Was stopped out on that surge.
  • #21,507
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:11pm Apr 29, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting Clouds
Curious why you changed your mind since you had planned to short at .93. Is it because it went to .9313?
i dont think its the reason , i think cause this trend line resistance is moving down by time ,, i mean everyday it comes down with few pips ,, even every hour , 1 day ago i used to say if it touches 93 then its ok as its the line resistance but today it came down to 9290 and now it was around 9285 before it broke it up , i wont be convienced with bears from here till it breaks it down again , i see any retracment well supported at this resistance line turning support
  • #21,508
  • Apr 29, 2010 9:10pm Apr 29, 2010 9:10pm
Hate to admit but I got cold feet on my Short.

Exited my position with a huge 4.2 Pip profit.

Oh well.

( now watch, it will probably drop 50 + Pips in the next hour )
  • #21,509
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:21pm Apr 29, 2010 11:21pm
Spreading its wings again? Punt a long here with stop just below the wings..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 32 KB


P.S. On second tots, could also turn out to be a bear gartley if it fails to take out the 9313
  • #21,510
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:24pm Apr 29, 2010 11:24pm
When AU gets to 9385 I am going to short NZDUSD heavily.
  • #21,511
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:53am Apr 30, 2010 2:53am
Well its month end once again…..



And with that comes month end flows.
Here’s what hearing so far.
Talk fix demand for aussie, sterling, euro.
Rumour euro demand could be to the tune of 4 bln. This would not necessarily be contained to EUR/USD.



http://www.forexlive.com/103275/all/...end-once-again http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/edit.gif
  • #21,512
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:56am Apr 30, 2010 3:56am
Quoting blurbear
Spreading its wings again? Punt a long here with stop just below the wings..



Throw out my punting long and flip to punting short 9316. If fail to clear 9317 looks like possible bearish 3-drive pattern

Attached Image
  • #21,513
  • Apr 30, 2010 5:47am Apr 30, 2010 5:47am
4 now LONG !


Then SHORT !






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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.USD - H1.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #21,514
  • May 1, 2010 12:48am May 1, 2010 12:48am
Long on AUD/USD just before market close @0.9240, no SL or TP. Hope that good news from Greece over the weekend helps push it through 0.930.

Didn't dare to bet on EUR/USD as it's too volatile these day.
  • #21,515
  • May 1, 2010 2:08am May 1, 2010 2:08am
Quoting longnt
Long on AUD/USD just before market close @0.9240, no SL or TP. Hope that good news from Greece over the weekend helps push it through 0.930.

Didn't dare to bet on EUR/USD as it's too volatile these day.
you're f%^ed, im sorry
  • #21,516
  • May 1, 2010 2:15am May 1, 2010 2:15am
Quoting longnt
Long on AUD/USD just before market close @0.9240, no SL or TP. Hope that good news from Greece over the weekend helps push it through 0.930.

Didn't dare to bet on EUR/USD as it's too volatile these day.
i don't think so..
  • #21,517
  • May 1, 2010 4:57am May 1, 2010 4:57am
Quoting longnt
Long on AUD/USD just before market close @0.9240, no SL or TP. Hope that good news from Greece over the weekend helps push it through 0.930.

Didn't dare to bet on EUR/USD as it's too volatile these day.

hmmmm what good news ??? am i missing something ?



anyway i'm shorting it all the way .... gonna short the heck out of it ... or not


edit: i dont really care about news to be honest, what i see is double top on weekly 0.94 and on daily there was an attempt to get to 0.9325 which failed, so it's either going down big time or at least it needs to get some momentum to try once again and to get momentum it needs to go down to some significant support.

well in theory ... good weekend to every one
  • #21,518
  • May 1, 2010 5:11am May 1, 2010 5:11am
Quoting longnt
Long on AUD/USD just before market close @0.9240, no SL or TP. Hope that good news from Greece over the weekend helps push it through 0.930.

Didn't dare to bet on EUR/USD as it's too volatile these day.
Is Greece in the 5th continent ?
  • #21,519
  • May 1, 2010 5:48am May 1, 2010 5:48am
Quoting johny_bravo
hmmmm...

Normally I will short AUD based on intra-day trend line but Greece is likely to get the deal and announce it this weekend and make Moody reluctant to downgrade its debt; China also didn't announce to re-valuate Yuan they usually didn't work on weekend given a big Expo there; and AUD interest rate is also likely to increase next week if Greece was rescued. Moreover I can earn interest on keeping long AUD, I will keep the position until rate decision is made. I'm betting on a gap up on the opening but scare of EUR cuz if the gap go down i will get burn seriously .
  • #21,520
  • May 1, 2010 6:36am May 1, 2010 6:36am
Quoting longnt
I'm betting on a gap up ........ .
well we will see, i was hoping for a gap as well ..... gap down but i'm in profit already so i'm not that scared.
the only thing that worries me is the fact that i won't be at the desk when markets open on sunday nite ..... will be parting at deadmou5 party at brixton ..... but will check on mobile and either close or leave.
i'll have a look of that forum as well - if i won't be too drunk already - so any analysis are welcome ...

anyway lets get some fun ppl its WWWWWWWEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKKeeeeeeeennnnnnnnnnnnnnddddddddddd


and we're still keeping our minds at markets heheheee
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