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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #62,321
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:07pm Apr 29, 2010 1:07pm
Hey guys did anyone take the CAD/CHF 4H PIN earlier today?

Looks like an absolute beauty - I completely missed it though.

I've just invested in a copy of "Pring on Price Patterns: The Definitive Guide to Price Pattern Analysis and Intrepretation" from Amazon
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Anything can happen.
  • #62,322
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:11pm Apr 29, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting packhorse
Hi Ted,

Hope you don't mind me asking what indicator plots the ATR figures at the top LH corner of your charts,

Cheers

Glynn

Here ya go.

The trade isn't performing.
(Back underwater after being up 25pips)

edit: And that last Dan Gilbert post is putting me off even more.
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  • #62,323
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:24pm Apr 29, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting bundyraider
Careful fellas. You don't want to be caught in the trap of trying to chase ever more tighter stops in the interest of larger position sizes (which is what tends to happen when someone wants tighter stops)

That's a real trap.

<snip>
Great post Bundy. Shortening stops as a method makes you the 'weak hand'.

Another way to grow your nut faster is to broaden your view, look at he big picture and understand that draw down happens - it is the natural flow of the market - love it, don't hate it, because you are being presented an opportunity to add into a position..

How many times have we seen price react on a PPZ, start on towards the next major PPZ, only to retrace a few times while getting there? Could it be that the natural flow of the market is giving you a golden chance to add in?

I'll tell you this much - Keep your stops back and when the market is taking a direction, go with it and look to add into your position.

Finding your way to freedom 1% (or less) at a time - well, it will likely remain a dream.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #62,324
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:28pm Apr 29, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey ATC

As this is all a moot point now since price has kept falling. But generally speaking on a pin like this at a swing low(that has not created a swing high point) you are coming right into a trouble area almost every time. This is also none as traffic yes. Now the catch is that certain continuation pins can turn into big runners at the right locations, but for the most part just finding a pin near a swing low(a bearish one that is), we have to watch that first close area, which for this one would have been decently far away but now is hitting...
Yes....makes sense and thanks for your insight.
  • #62,325
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:30pm Apr 29, 2010 1:30pm
Quoting StoragePro
Finding your way to freedom 1% (or less) at a time - well, it will likely remain a dream.
WRONG!

We is going to profit 20% in month and laff all da way to bank!!!11

joke's on you storage! have fun with that 1% risk lololol! sucker!
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #62,326
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:35pm Apr 29, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting benji533
Hey Dan,


Many say "go with the flow", "the trend is your friend", "stop being stupid taking those CTs and make money!!, etc.
As much ironically as it may sound, most of my trades are CTs and I ma doing quite well with them i think

<snip>

.

Counter trend trading is what this method is all about -

Think of what you look for - bars at extremes. Does not sound like a trend trade to me. It works, but you gotta be very careful. I never met a long term trader who made his fortune counter trend. I'm sure they are out there, but I do meet trend traders who are just flush.

When we learn to add into trends and be patient with them, your account will inflate dramatically.

But - there are 100's of ways to make money in the market. 100's and 100's of them.

None of them work though, until we stop looking at the market as if it were an enemy.

"The market took my stop"
"The market whipped me out"
"That was a head fake"
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #62,327
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:38pm Apr 29, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
WRONG!

We is going to profit 20% in month and laff all da way to bank!!!11

joke's on you storage! have fun with that 1% risk lololol! sucker!
I think you are missing my point Dan. But thanks for participating.

Here is a question for anyone -

If 95% of traders fail, why is it that 95% of traders here are claiming success? Truth be told.. it ain't being told.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #62,328
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:43pm Apr 29, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting StoragePro
Counter trend trading is what this method is all about -

Think of what you look for - bars at extremes. Does not sound like a trend trade to me. It works, but you gotta be very careful. I never met a long term trader who made his fortune counter trend. I'm sure they are out there, but I do meet trend traders who are just flush.
I think it's just how people perceieve the "trend". many folks look at a different timeframe and see higher highs, higher lows, and it doesn't register what his happening. an EXTREME dip? yes. and EXTREME low/high.... no thanks... just me apparently. I find it works.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #62,329
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:45pm Apr 29, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting joelcf


People who talk in risk:reward without expected value dont understand 'the math' and are just repeating something they read in a book (or, more likely, someone else who read a book). It's disingenuous at best, because it ignores the other half of the equation.

...which is.....?


Quoting joelcf
How is risking 3% (or any other arbitary number you pick) on a lower timeframe any different to 3% on a longer timeframe, apart from 'noise' being alot more significant in the makeup of the PA, therefore increasing your variance (and consequently, risk)?

The only difference is that you get a larger number of potential signals.
Yeah, that's my point! Why wouldn't you want more good signals than less?? Why is everyone here sooooo hooked on having less signals to CHOOSE FROM (be picky with), than MORE signals to BE PICKY WITH? It don't make sense!!!!!!!

I would rather pick from 30 signals than 3 - I could surely pick more GOOD ones and be allowed to be MORE PICKY with a selection box of 30 than 3!!! Why does everyone ignore this? Why doesn't anyone understand this?
  • #62,330
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:53pm Apr 29, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting triggerju
I would rather pick from 30 signals than 3 - I could surely pick more GOOD ones and be allowed to be MORE PICKY with a selection box of 30 than 3!!! Why does everyone ignore this? Why doesn't anyone understand this?
the more rules you have on trade criteria, the better setups you are allowing yourself to take, equates to less trades getting stopped out.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #62,331
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:55pm Apr 29, 2010 1:55pm
Quoting triggerju
. Why does everyone ignore this? Why doesn't anyone understand this?
who's ignoring this, this is exactly what we promote here
  • #62,332
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:57pm Apr 29, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
the more rules you have on trade criteria, the better setups you are allowing yourself to take, equates to less trades getting stopped out.

Dan, I TOTALLY AGREE... that's not what I'm saying!!

Why can't anyone get this?! If you search 1hrbars you get 24 in a day. You get 6 4hr bars. You get 1 daily bar. Over a month, 1hr/4hr gives you a wonderful selecton box of pins to be picky about. VERY PICKY. Daily gives you what? A handful?! You can make your financial goals quicker YET JUST AS SAFE by using VERY GOOD VERY PICKY 1hr/4hr PA/pins.

How much simpler can I explain it?!
  • #62,333
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:58pm Apr 29, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting triggerju
...which is.....?
Win rate silly!

Win rate x R:R = EV.
  • #62,334
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:00pm Apr 29, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting triggerju
Yeah, that's my point! Why wouldn't you want more good signals than less?? Why is everyone here sooooo hooked on having less signals to CHOOSE FROM (be picky with), than MORE signals to BE PICKY WITH? It don't make sense!!!!!!!

I would rather pick from 30 signals than 3 - I could surely pick more GOOD ones and be allowed to be MORE PICKY with a selection box of 30 than 3!!! Why does everyone ignore this? Why doesn't anyone understand this?
You sound like only you have that eureka moment, have you back tested and forward tested lower time frames?

This thread is for new comers in this industry and I doubt anyone can learn anything in the environment of lower timeframe stress.

If you can do it on the weekly and daily its just a matter of your own choice you want to drop down the timeframes or not.

PPZ is PPZ even on 1 min chart, but thats the last thing newbies pay attention to, do not concentrate only on PA they are just the part of this method.
  • #62,335
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:03pm Apr 29, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting Ted1983
Win rate silly!

Win rate x R:R = EV.
Well yeah, I thought I was about to be wowed with sum cr*ppy trading/life philosophy like everyone has at the foot of their posts.
  • #62,336
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:04pm Apr 29, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting triggerju
Dan, I TOTALLY AGREE... that's not what I'm saying!!

Why can't anyone get this?! If you search 1hrbars you get 24 in a day. You get 6 4hr bars. You get 1 daily bar. Over a month, 1hr/4hr gives you a wonderful selecton box of pins to be picky about. VERY PICKY. Daily gives you what? A handful?! You can make your financial goals quicker YET JUST AS SAFE by using VERY GOOD VERY PICKY 1hr/4hr PA/pins.

How much simpler can I explain it?!

ahhhhhhh ok.... truth is that less people are looking on short time frames (especially 1hr).

Sure you can be successful trading lower time frames, but you have less time to "think" and less time to analyze your situation.

Also, the lower timeframes might show you what would be considered a clean, nice bar, BUT, it turns out to just be "noise" and not a true representation of what the market is really trying to do.

Bars that fail are usually at bad locations. (no round number, no PPZ, etc), and you won't find this happening as often on the longer TF's.

Basically, like I said before, you don't need to make a ton of returns week on week, and it's unrealistic to think you can. Daily PA is more than enough to grow an account, and smaller timeframes can be traded, but at what cost? I don't even want to watch a 1 hr chart. do you?
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #62,337
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:05pm Apr 29, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting triggerju
Dan, I TOTALLY AGREE... that's not what I'm saying!!

Why can't anyone get this?! If you search 1hrbars you get 24 in a day. You get 6 4hr bars. You get 1 daily bar. Over a month, 1hr/4hr gives you a wonderful selecton box of pins to be picky about. VERY PICKY. Daily gives you what? A handful?! You can make your financial goals quicker YET JUST AS SAFE by using VERY GOOD VERY PICKY 1hr/4hr PA/pins.

How much simpler can I explain it?!
Trigger(really just using your posts as a springboard to rant )

I mean this in a very nice way I think you have missed a lot of key points brought up by seniors and long time members. I know this is a super long thread so I will re-explain for clarity from at least what I mean. Remember this is a thread where we see tons of NEW traders who have no concept of anything but shotgun trading on 5 min timeframes. When you achieve a certain level with this material and understanding of the market in general you know how to survive and learn and do things right until you can possibly make it.

The fact James says to start on the higher timeframes, is NOT to never trade the lower timeframes. Or that most people might not end up down there. The idea is that first of you can trade daily/weekly and make a very nice ROI per year. You can watch 100s of charts on daily weekly INCREASING the opportunities(and hell some people just don't want to check charts more then once a day). If you watch 20 forex pairs on daily/weekly you are severely limiting yourself and this is the same thing you are saying. More pairs = more opportunities. It is easy to scan 100 charts for a daily/weekly close, impossible(IMO) to scan 100 charts on the hourly. So there are many ways to increase exposure to trading opportunities.

But this isn't even the point most of us bring up when we say start(keyword) on the higher timeframes. The reason to start on the higher timeframes is to develop the skill and mindset to keep you in the game, learning to trade profitable and then to help translate those skills to wherever is comfortable(90% of my trades are 4hr and under so I understand). What happens is most people read something about forex, go to the 15 min chart and trade till they are blown out. They don't realize how crucial patience, discipline is b/c they are constantly "in a trade". It's more of the feeling then it is the actual mindset of a trader, which IMO is what the higher timeframe to start is about. It is to clear out so many(and I see this everyday as I deal with many NEW traders0 bad habits.

So I think you are missing what we are trying to get here. Your point isn't incorrect, its the context of the rest of it. My last question I pose to the general people who are reading this thread. If you are trading the 5min the 15min right now and have been banging your head on the table and refuse to get off, that is FINE. If that is what you want to do. No one is ever telling you you CAN'T. The question really is if what you are doing isn't working then maybe try to find a new way to get it to work that is logical from people who have been in it.

Again. DO people trade j16 price action on every timeframe. YES! It's a process to learn to become profitable. Some of the rules and general guidelines are to help get people to a point where they are close. No one can make you profitable over night, and at the end it is up to YOU the person to make it happen. The tips/advice we all give is from experience.

The journey you take with this material or anyone elses' is ENTIRELY yours. There are a 100 ways to make it work and even more to make it fail.

I truly hope this clears it up and I can reference this post in a few months time when it is brought up again

Best and I appreciate all the hard work people put in, this is not something easy
Mike
  • #62,338
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:07pm Apr 29, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting datogio
You sound like only you have that eureka moment, have you back tested and forward tested lower time frames?

This thread is for new comers in this industry and I doubt anyone can learn anything in the environment of lower timeframe stress.

If you can do it on the weekly and daily its just a matter of your own choice you want to drop down the timeframes or not.

PPZ is PPZ even on 1 min chart, but thats the last thing newbies pay attention to, do not concentrate only on PA they are just the part of this method.
No eureka moment, but common sense. Everyone teaches that charts are all the same regardless of timeframe/instrument ec... This has it's truth and it's lies, frankly. But guys, come on, pull up 4hr EurJpy chart and tell me you can't suddenly find loads more pins to be picky about!!!! Why ignore them? Where is the stress? If you honestly cannot look at a PC every 4 hours then you need to either stick with dailys, change your job/lifetsyle, quit trading or get an iPhone lol. Most will probably stick with dailys in this situation. But if you can browse a EurJpy 4hr chart at close of every bar then there is a world of opportunity for you right there.
  • #62,339
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:12pm Apr 29, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting triggerju
No eureka moment, but common sense. Everyone teaches that charts are all the same regardless of timeframe/instrument ec... This has it's truth and it's lies, frankly. But guys, come on, pull up 4hr EurJpy chart and tell me you can't suddenly find loads more pins to be picky about!!!! Why ignore them? Where is the stress? If you honestly cannot look at a PC every 4 hours then you need to either stick with dailys, change your job/lifetsyle, quit trading or get an iPhone lol. Most will probably stick with dailys in this situation. But if you can browse...
I exactly know where my opportunities and edge are and they definitely are not in time frames.
  • #62,340
  • Edited 2:33pm Apr 29, 2010 2:17pm | Edited 2:33pm
Care to elaborate?

IMO timeframes are indistinguishable*, just that trading costs grow to be a too large proportion of targets.
Most good methods look at more than 1 TF for charting I think. (Or zoom out considerably on a smaller chart).

*I would contend that if thats not true then TA/PA trading is impossible.
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