So I guess it's what it would sound like if Donald Duck said "Goss"?
Here comes my voice box...ehm...ehm...
(audio coming)
I believe . . .
james16 Chart Thread
- #62,281
- Apr 29, 2010 7:39am Apr 29, 2010 7:39am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
- #62,282
- Apr 29, 2010 7:46am Apr 29, 2010 7:46am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
So I guess it's what it would sound like if Donald Duck said "Goss"?
I did't wanted to say this but yea you need to use your nose when starting off.
.
Sorry Ghous.
- #62,284
- Apr 29, 2010 7:55am Apr 29, 2010 7:55am
You typically use a 10-20 pip stop... is that for PPZ breakouts our classic PA trades as well?
Where I'm putting the stop behind a PPZ and/or BRN, I usually put it 10-15ish pips behind that...so your stop will actually be (distance_to_PPZ + 10) pips, if that makes sense?
Have just found that where price does try to penetrate a BRN and fails, a stop at 10-15 will usually be untouched. I think I found the mean was about 6 pips, and 80% failed to go to 10 pips. Its scribbled in a notebook somewhere
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #62,285
- Apr 29, 2010 8:00am Apr 29, 2010 8:00am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #62,286
- Apr 29, 2010 8:07am Apr 29, 2010 8:07am
Shouldn't you be using about $1168 per ounce for gold (not $705)? Or do you think you'll get a discount for quantity?
You know, we'll start affecting the markets before we ever trade up to $8.4 quadrillion.
Then again, I guess at some point you would just buy Australia and South Africa, so that's gotta lower your average cost
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #62,288
- Edited 9:30am Apr 29, 2010 8:20am | Edited 9:30am
I have to disagree that the results of the contest are "largely meaningless." The probability that luck had much to do with the success of the 569-trade trader (making 523 or so successful trades out of 569) is infinitesimally small. His trades were open an average of about 23 minutes and he captured lots of small moves (averaging a few pips), not big moves during news events, so I seriously doubt he was "gaming the system" (i.e. cheating somehow). It appears he should be able to repeat...
The 'meaningless' aspect more comes from the short term nature of it, rather than the guys skills or system - which is why, if he repeated his performance a couple of times, then I would be sitting up to take notice (and e-stalk him for tidbits/offer him wine, women and sportscars for info/etc).
As I said, there is every chance that he is a decent trader and just caught a good run that month which pushed him up front. It's certainly impressive (moreso than the guy who took 10 trades and won in the other month i looked at).
I respect that you know a thing or three about trading
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #62,289
- Apr 29, 2010 8:27am Apr 29, 2010 8:27am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
- #62,290
- Apr 29, 2010 8:28am Apr 29, 2010 8:28am
I'm a big fan on basing your stops on PA. Makes sense to me that if you are going to enter on PA, you can use it to give you an idea of what price might do after you enter. If there is a big PPZ sitting on a BRN, my short entry is always
going to be under it, so I see no reason not to put my stop behind it too - usually around ten pips. Be interested to hear J's thoughts.
Then again, I'm also a big fan of Cherry Coke Zero and McDonalds animal cookies, so feel free to disregard
I have a theory based on my vast trading experience
- say take a Daily pin, enter on the break, price retraces back quite often (I think) to perhaps a minippz (MPPZ!) within the pin nose which can be identified on a 4 hour or even 1 hour time frame. So one could identify these MPPZs and tuck the SL under that or at least use it for guidance.Please feel free to totally dismiss!
J
- #62,291
- Apr 29, 2010 8:33am Apr 29, 2010 8:33am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
Good Morning Fellow J16'ers,
I was curious if anyone is watching the Daily pin bar on SILVER? Seems to be of quality, in the direction of the major trend, on a round number (18.00), as well the head of the pin is within yesterdays range.
Good quality setup?
I watch silver.
The break point's too close to that last peak for my comfort levels. By the time an entry is triggered you are already waiting and hoping it will get past that level.
Would have been great to get in at the green arrowed (on my chart) bar. Especially if it looked like the yellow arrowed one you are talking about.
Good sign for someone who was already long.
...Might hit 19.00 next, I suppose. (That top dotted pink trend line lines up with that RN target.)
B
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
- #62,292
- Edited 9:34am Apr 29, 2010 8:35am | Edited 9:34am
I have a theory based on my vast trading experience
A really tight stop setup can be to enter with your stop just behind the last swing high or the one before (penultimate swing high?) on a lower timeframe, or to enter/reenter on retrace to a fib level (dicey in my experience, but people definitely use it here), or just behind a BRN/PPZ that the pin pierced.Your theory sounds pretty solid
Though those are all pretty advanced entries, and are going to lower your 'win' rate. Whether that balances out with an increased position size... Then again, that's why God (or Jim?) invented demo accounts.
*edit* obviously, left/right eyes on pins are pretty common too. But does that make them a good idea or a bad one?
g.
I feel like one of the great j16 mysteries has been solved tonight. Next week: where is Rac's cave?
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #62,293
- Edited 8:54am Apr 29, 2010 8:41am | Edited 8:54am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
.
reminds me of what u said in your profile: "it's 'BOSS' with a 'g' "
....
I feel like one of the great j16 mysteries has been solved tonight. Next week: where is Rac's cave?
- #62,295
- Apr 29, 2010 9:34am Apr 29, 2010 9:34am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
absolutely - patterns within patterns within patterns
Your theory sounds pretty solid
Though those are all pretty advanced entries, and are going to lower your 'win' rate. Whether that balances out with an increased position size......
You've been online for a long time today Joel.???.
- #62,296
- Apr 29, 2010 9:35am Apr 29, 2010 9:35am
I told you people. lol
You've been online for a long time today Joel.???.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #62,300
- Apr 29, 2010 10:26am Apr 29, 2010 10:26am
- Joined Feb 2006 | Status: 'Try-hard' extraordinaire... | 2,151 Posts
I have a theory based on my vast trading experience
Please feel free to totally dismiss!
J
absolutely - patterns within patterns within...
That's a real trap.
If the signal bar is fantastic enough , even before the break you can get in on a retrace in the manner you mentioned... ...at a minor PPZ which has good confluence in itself (with bar highs/lows etc ) and stands on it's own merits. BUT then hide the stop behind a great wall wherever possible. Which for me is the original bar's stop.
Getting in before a break is riskier, you need to know what you're potentially banging your head against first. A lot of the time the break of the bar is the break of a key S/R level too and you are best to just go with the trusted method.
Just what I've learnt to do anyway. Passing it on.
It's so much easier just to take bars that have good space and just play the break like normal with the stop on the other side. ...and then build up on the other little tricks as you gain chart time noticing things. (And they come along pretty well too as you gain confidence) . Outside bars are the easiest to play retraces on too, in my opinon.
Some situations are more conducive to retrace entries than others and you just choose the appropriate method based on what you see in the bars around your signal.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."