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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,421
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:00am Apr 28, 2010 7:00am
Quoting AlwaysLearn
Round bottom has formed on the EJ but too close to the EA line. R:R ratio will be less than 1. No trade.

EU seemed to have rebounded. But sl too far to previous low. No trade.

Comments?
Dear
I have no idea about EJ, but I think it's time to buy in EU with a longterm view.
Notice that weekly 365 EMA is 1.3150 , today's low. And Monthly 89 SMA is 1.3050.
It's better to wait for MACD.

khashaYaR
  • #22,422
  • Edited 9:13am Apr 28, 2010 8:54am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting khashaYaR
Dear
I had bad month too. But I made 380 pips in March, which I completely used MACD patterns, especially RB and RT. I ignored TC patterns bcz it didnt worked that month.
April, the month with strong trend. I used RB and RT again and lots of losses.
We should know, in a trend market TC patterns are great.
Hi khashaYaR,

I guess the reason why I lost so much is due to my human weakness (Emotion, not patience enough and discipline). Trying very hard and hope I can manage them in near future.


Hi AlwaysLearn, Yuan83,

I am from Singapore too. Nice to know that we have some Singapore kaki in the forum. Hope we can learn and share more with each others with friends from all over the world.

Frankly, I am abit lost now after such big losses. When I look at the chart, I cannot analyst properly. Guess I need a break and hope to acheive some good result after the break.
  • #22,423
  • Apr 28, 2010 9:52am Apr 28, 2010 9:52am
Quoting silverfox88
Hi khashaYaR,

I guess the reason why I lost so much is due to my human weakness (Emotion, not patience enough and discipline). Trying very hard and hope I can manage them in near future.


Hi AlwaysLearn, Yuan83,

I am from Singapore too. Nice to know that we have some Singapore kaki in the forum. Hope we can learn and share more with each others with friends from all over the world.

Frankly, I am abit lost now after such big losses. When I look at the chart, I cannot analyst properly. Guess I need a break and hope to acheive some...
u traded demo before or u traded live from the start? ya guess u need a break.. u do need a trading journal too i feel. and share with us ur trade ya.
  • #22,424
  • Apr 28, 2010 10:06am Apr 28, 2010 10:06am
Quoting yuan83
u traded demo before or u traded live from the start? ya guess u need a break.. u do need a trading journal too i feel. and share with us ur trade ya.
Yes, I did demo but not for too long. Although I am trading live, but my position is pretty small using mini lots. Hence, the damage is not too big but in terms of pips, it really dampen my confidence. I am writing down my lost position and hopefully, will not repeat the same mistakes again!
  • #22,425
  • Apr 28, 2010 10:11am Apr 28, 2010 10:11am
Quoting khashaYaR
Dear
I had bad month too. But I made 380 pips in March, which I completely used MACD patterns, especially RB and RT. I ignored TC patterns bcz it didnt worked that month.
April, the month with strong trend. I used RB and RT again and lots of losses.
We should know, in a trend market TC patterns are great.
erm TC is gd, esp when u see e support around e 21MA before off it goes. all i can possibly say it, nobody can predict the market
  • #22,426
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:06pm Apr 28, 2010 7:06pm
Evening star seen in EU 4hr chart. Will wait for this candle to close to confirm a downtrend continuation.

EJ seems to have rebounded off the 21MA for a downtrend continuation.

Anyone shares the same opinion?
  • #22,427
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:24pm Apr 28, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting silverfox88
Yes, I did demo but not for too long. Although I am trading live, but my position is pretty small using mini lots. Hence, the damage is not too big but in terms of pips, it really dampen my confidence. I am writing down my lost position and hopefully, will not repeat the same mistakes again!
I am planning to trade on demo from now till Aug. Hopefully by then, I would have got the confidence to trade on micro lots. Which is why I am posting my analysis here to let the seniors give me guidance.
  • #22,428
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:45pm Apr 28, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting AlwaysLearn
Evening star seen in EU 4hr chart. Will wait for this candle to close to confirm a downtrend continuation.

EJ seems to have rebounded off the 21MA for a downtrend continuation.

Anyone shares the same opinion?
hmmm yes do look like one though the "nose" is short. prob macd can give an entry.
  • #22,429
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:51pm Apr 28, 2010 7:51pm
Quoting silverfox88
Yes, I did demo but not for too long. Although I am trading live, but my position is pretty small using mini lots. Hence, the damage is not too big but in terms of pips, it really dampen my confidence. I am writing down my lost position and hopefully, will not repeat the same mistakes again!
hmm 450 pips . tt's a lot. but i myself dun think too much abt pips? i mean. i will think it depends on ur risk, then assign the pip/dollar to be 1%/2% of ur equity? so 1 trade u might have 50pip risk at $1/pip, while another trade 25pip risk at $2/pip.

anw i suppose u prob have too gd a time with demo, and maybe not sticking to rules etc that 's wh y u go live so fast?
  • #22,430
  • Apr 28, 2010 9:27pm Apr 28, 2010 9:27pm
Quoting yuan83
anw i suppose u prob have too gd a time with demo, and maybe not sticking to rules etc that 's wh y u go live so fast?
I think what Yuan means is that it is easier to not stick to the rules with a demo account. If you blow a demo account, you just reset it. You don't actually lose any money so you don't care.
Having a real account no matter how small gives better practice. After all, it is the rules that will prevent you from blowing your account in future. Learning money management is very important.
  • #22,431
  • Edited 10:05pm Apr 28, 2010 9:32pm | Edited 10:05pm
Quoting AlwaysLearn
Evening star seen in EU 4hr chart. Will wait for this candle to close to confirm a downtrend continuation.

EJ seems to have rebounded off the 21MA for a downtrend continuation.

Anyone shares the same opinion?
I can't see what you can see on your chart. To me, EJ is still in consolidation. All the MAs are coming together so we need to wait until it breaks out of the triangle and gives us some clear direction. I am thinking up but we need to wait until the pair gives us clear direction.

I am not recommending that other people trade EJ with this system. I am just answering your question.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,432
  • Apr 28, 2010 10:10pm Apr 28, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting xeneric
I can't see what you can see on your chart. To me, EJ is still in consolidation. All the MAs are coming together so we need to wait until it breaks out of the triangle and gives us some clear direction. I am thinking up but we need to wait until the pair gives us clear direction.

I am not recommending that other people trade EJ with this system. I am just answering your question.
Good analysis. I didn't notice the triangle. But I think your broker and mine close the candles at different times. As you have correctly mentioned, EJ now is not trending, MACD gives trend signals. Please correct me if I got it wrong.
  • #22,433
  • Apr 28, 2010 10:56pm Apr 28, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting xeneric
I think what Yuan means is that it is easier to not stick to the rules with a demo account. If you blow a demo account, you just reset it. You don't actually lose any money so you don't care.
Having a real account no matter how small gives better practice. After all, it is the rules that will prevent you from blowing your account in future. Learning money management is very important.
Hi guys,

thanks for all the input. I guess I know what is my problem now. For continuos 5 weeks, I got positive result which i think make me feel relax and causes the first mistake. Next emotion kicks in and I do it more which result in more damaged. Now, I have to start from stretch again and got to constantly remind myself to be very careful everytimes when when putting in trades.
  • #22,434
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:10am Apr 29, 2010 12:10am
Quoting xeneric
I think what Yuan means is that it is easier to not stick to the rules with a demo account. If you blow a demo account, you just reset it. You don't actually lose any money so you don't care.
Having a real account no matter how small gives better practice. After all, it is the rules that will prevent you from blowing your account in future. Learning money management is very important.
yup i will think it's easy to anyhow trade since no real money is involved but well i might be wrong ya
  • #22,435
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:40am Apr 29, 2010 12:40am
Quoting yuan83
yup i will think it's easy to anyhow trade since no real money is involved but well i might be wrong ya
In demo, it is easy to trade because no real money is involved. This I fully agree. I started with a 50000 demo account on 3rd March this year. Now, my demo account has 139504.56. Of the profits, only 6.34 was based on the MACD. The rest were traded based on gut feeling. Even hit margin call once. Success in demo trading does not equate to success in live trading. When live trading, your emotions will be heightened more than demo when you see your money sliding and tend to deviate from your trading plans and even attempt to regain by taking reckless trade.

But then, talking is easy. To do it is hard. To maintain it, is the hardest.
  • #22,436
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:33am Apr 29, 2010 1:33am
Quoting xeneric
Congrats Ira on your YM trade. Saw it on your blog but since I don't write Russian, I am congratulating you here.
Thanks Xeneric, that was a good trade.

I see that some people have troubles in April. I won't go into emotional aspects of trading, as it is a separate topic, let's talk about system. Can anyone point to the clear 4h trend, when the price didn't break 21 and we had nice, smooth pullbacks with TC from 21? On any pair? ...No!

On the other hand, it wasn't ranging properly, bouncing of borders. Actually, it shows how the crowd runs with scared money. Candle up, candle down, up, down. These are the trouble times, and we must learn how to recognize them and stop trading.

It is hard to trade the market when nothing really happens. Lately I have read a wonderful article, where the author says that on the market hard work is a way to disaster. For example, you need to learn a foreign language, the more effort you put the better result will be. But it doesn't work here, Forex does not depend on your hard work. Actually, it will work against you because you always can find a trade, charts can hypnotize you, and talk to a trade.

At times of trouble we should walk away from the computer and do something else. I looked trough my trades in April, I highly recommend everyone to have trading journal with charts. My losses at the beginning of the month were only when I didn't follow the rules, or jumped ahead without conformation. And only after the 20th of April I saw that the market wasn't doing what it should do. So I stopped trading, and since then I haven't taken a single trade on Forex.

Now, looking at the charts I see nothing. I decided to give the market time, to clear things up. So I won't be trading until I see something really worth trading. I check the market every 4 hour, it takes no more than 10 minutes, and then I close the terminal and do something else. I open it only when the next 4h pass.

By the way people, I haven’t seen a single chart. How are we going to help you, if we don’t know what are you talking about& Please, post the charts and your comment, and we all will benefit from it.
  • #22,437
  • Apr 29, 2010 2:35am Apr 29, 2010 2:35am
Quoting ira
Thanks Xeneric, that was a good trade.

I see that some people have troubles in April. I won't go into emotional aspects of trading, as it is a separate topic, let's talk about system. Can anyone point to the clear 4h trend, when the price didn't break 21 and we had nice, smooth pullbacks with TC from 21? On any pair? ...No!

[color=black][font=Verdana]On the other hand, it wasn't ranging properly, bouncing of borders. Actually, it shows how the crowd runs with...
Hi Ira,

I guess the problem with my losses is due to not enough experience. Will walk away in future if candlestick showing up and down in uncertain market. Its always good to learn from you guys. Thank you.
  • #22,438
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:41am Apr 29, 2010 3:41am
Hi Ira, just wondering, pardon me if u say before, so how many pairs do u trade?

u say u check every 4 hrs, but do u first plan for some possible situations ? or do u decide on the spot wad to do?
and so u set a trade n go away?

thanks

Quoting ira
Thanks Xeneric, that was a good trade.

I see that some people have troubles in April. I won't go into emotional aspects of trading, as it is a separate topic, let's talk about system. Can anyone point to the clear 4h trend, when the price didn't break 21 and we had nice, smooth pullbacks with TC from 21? On any pair? ...No!

[color=black][font=Verdana]On the other hand, it wasn't ranging properly, bouncing of borders. Actually, it shows how the crowd runs with...
  • #22,439
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:43am Apr 29, 2010 4:43am
Quoting yuan83
Hi Ira, just wondering, pardon me if u say before, so how many pairs do u trade?

u say u check every 4 hrs, but do u first plan for some possible situations ? or do u decide on the spot wad to do?
and so u set a trade n go away?

thanks
I trade 10 pairs, gold and silver, and lately have started to look at the futures. But, don't forget I spent almost 2 years trading ONLY E/U and G/U.

No, I don't plan, it just doesn't work for me. I prefer to trade what I see and not what I think. But again, I did a lot of planning, testing and now I just see things. It is called experience. People always forget that it is the most important thing here. If you drive a car, you must remember how nervous you were at the first, second etc. time. And now when you are driving you don't even think about it. I had my checklists, rules near the screen. Right now I open the chart and tell myself, here is trend, wait for the pullback to the 21. Here is range let's see what will it do near this level. Here is nothing etc. I have all my lines in place, so if something cathes my attention I look closer and start concidering the trade, I decide the size of the stop, possible profit targets. But, if there is nothing on the chart, I just go to another.

In 20 minutes I'll have a close of the 4h candle, so Euro is heading to 21 -let's see what will it do there, pound came to 200MA - nothing, G/J is between the major MA's - nothing, U/C is heading to 21 - let's see waht it will do there, U/J - inside the range - nothing, etc. I think you've got my point.
  • #22,440
  • Apr 29, 2010 6:35am Apr 29, 2010 6:35am
i too is a routine type of person. when i see a set up from price action, i usually take considerable risk and multiple profit level. That way, i can then walk away and get on with things in my life. Even if the trades gone against me, i could still accept losses, as it was a considerable risk.
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