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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #62,241
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:03pm Apr 28, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting fxeturn
That made my day. Yet another piece of great insight I learned from you guys. So I can safely assume that most J16 method practitioners here enter a trade with more than 1 lot, minimum 1 for quick TP and another for discretionary TP?

Hey FX

I don't think you can really generalize that much. I have seen such a wide variety. The last few posts by joel and Jarroo show the differences in approaches. I for one NEVER take partial profit, many do, some do sometimes and not other times. You really have to sort of jump in and start to sort through what begins to work and doesn't and build off that. But yes it is a reasonable place to start and you may end there too

Best
Mike
  • #62,242
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:05pm Apr 28, 2010 11:05pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey FX

I don't think you can really generalize that much. I have seen such a wide variety. The last few posts by joel and Jarroo show the differences in approaches. I for one NEVER take partial profit, many do, some do sometimes and not other times. You really have to sort of jump in and start to sort through what begins to work and doesn't and build off that. But yes it is a reasonable place to start and you may end there too

Best
Mike
Okay Mike, I got it. The key word here is 'discretionary' yes?
  • #62,243
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:06pm Apr 28, 2010 11:06pm
Quoting fxeturn
Okay Mike, I got it. The key word here is 'discretionary' yes?
very much so ... like I always say it's good b/c there is a variety of approaches that can work, but it's tough b/c it isn't a 1,2,3 process
  • #62,244
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:22pm Apr 28, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting datogio
I agree, that was my point, mini account is good for training IMO, it's unrealistic to feed the illusions that one day someone will build it to million, but anything is possible. People are so different.
Hi Datogio,

I don't know what is possible with the PA strategy, but the King of the Micro contest results at FXCM can be quite revealing. The top micro trader at FXCM in July 2009 turned an initial $ 585.48 balance into $ 9663.61 by month's end (check out the trading report at http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-...9-results.html). But anybody can go all out with a relatively small account (which maybe won't matter much if lost), and sometimes people doing that just get lucky, right? Well, the trader made 569 trades and won something like 92% of them, so I don't think we can call it "luck." All but about three of those trades were in the AUDNZD pair. I think it is rather amazing that anyone could scalp a pair like AUDNZD like that - a pair with a spread of 5+ pips, but that is what the trader did. I have analyzed the trader's report in some detail. One notable observation is that the trader used good money management and did not take unreasonable risks.

I can appreciate that you are saying one should not feed unrealistic expectations to others, but I don't think we should deny what is actually possible either. I think it doesn't hurt to be inspired by the success of others.

While I'm at it, I'll mention another trader who posted a record I was particularly impressed with - the third place trader in the month of October 2009 (http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-...9-results.html) - turning an initial balance of $ 8,197.18 into $ 80,992.28 in just one month. (In fact, the trader had actually traded the account balance up to $123,996.27 - for an incredible 1412% gain - before going a little overboard with the leverage on the last day of trading in that month and suffering a string of losses).

It is not hard to imagine how either one of these two traders could turn a relatively insignificant sum into $1 million in relatively short order.

Steve0001
  • #62,245
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:39pm Apr 28, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting Steve0001
Hi Datogio,

I don't know what is possible with the PA strategy, but the King of the Micro contest results at FXCM can be quite revealing. The top micro trader at FXCM in July 2009 turned an initial $ 585.48 balance into $ 9663.61 by month's end (check out the trading report at http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king-...9-results.html). But anybody can go all out with a relatively small account (which maybe won't matter much if lost), and sometimes people doing...
Anything is possible my friend, but still everything comes to practice. I doubt that traders came overnight, they wanted to achieve that performance and achieved based on thousands and thousands of hours of learning, practicing and dedicating themselves to their dream and not complaining and giving up after couple of months of playing with charts and jumping from one method to another. If you want to be a doctor you should learn medicine, if you want to be an engineer you should learn engineering and not vise versa.
  • #62,246
  • Edited Apr 29, 2010 12:27am Apr 28, 2010 11:57pm | Edited Apr 29, 2010 12:27am
Quoting Steve0001
It is not hard to imagine how either one of these two traders could turn a relatively insignificant sum into $1 million in relatively short order.
Attrition bias is fun. The result from these competitions are largely meaningless, because the conditions are completely artificial. And so the constraints that ordinarily apply in the real world are removed.

There is no penalty for losing, and no reward for not winning (in real terms - you are talking $500 capital to win $25k) in a short timeframe. Which means there is a positive EV for taking on as much risk as possible. Someone here knows a little about that

So you only hear about those who gamble and win, not the ones who lose. For every trade he took long, someone likely took short. And because the pair broke north, not south, you only read about one of them.

(obv a simplified example, otherwise we are talking 2^500 entrants!)

On any performance curve, you are going to have outliers. It would be strange not to. So there is no suprise that a guy made xxx% in a month. Do it a couple of times and I might pay attention.

Not trying to take anything away from these guys, maybe they really are great traders. Or maybe just had a hot run, as you would expect in a large field. Variance is fun - when it works for you. Either way, well done

*edit* their forums over there are a trainwreck of epic proportions. Take all the 'how did i be millinaire?!' posts from FF and compress them into a much smaller space. FXCM must be making a killing on the contestants. It's actually really smart marketing.

Also, maybe not this one cause it seems to be tightly controlled, but so many of these contests are won by someone gaming the system, rather than *actually* trading. Its usually someone exploiting data delays or artificial inefficiencies (usually bid/ask or transaction cost) that dont exist in the real world. IIRC, someone did something similar in a big contest here - there was a couple hundred millisecond delay in the data and bam. Did quite nicely out of it too.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #62,247
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:22am Apr 29, 2010 12:22am
Quoting mbqb11
GOSS like BOSS I know now
No you still did't get it. lol
.
  • #62,248
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:24am Apr 29, 2010 12:24am
Quoting nasir.khan
No you still did't get it. lol
.
from his profile!

Hi everybody,

Ghous reporting...(Ghous is not like goose or ghost. I always tell ppl to replace the letter B in BOSS with G to come close enough to the actual pronunciation)
  • #62,249
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:31am Apr 29, 2010 12:31am
Quoting joelcf
The only way you are even possibly getting an ROI in that range is by using a ridiculous amount of leverage and dicey position sizing that veers right into the heart of RoR territory. In which case, ROI is meaningless - it is ROE which actually tracks the returns from your strategy, and they are going to be alot less impressive.

In fact, I would be suprised if you could name a single person who does that consistently with any kind of real account (ie, not 'I risked my $100 account on a penny stock and doubled it this one time').

To be completely...
A great post Sir IMO.

For the people that say you can't trade a small account on the daily timeframes and make decent returns...pull up a daily chart of EU and mark on all the J16 type trades i.e. confluence locations, PA, breakouts etc. on it and then tell me you can't make decent returns on the daily TF. If you still think you cannot then you haven't spent enough time learning and practising the concepts in this thread IMO.

If you have really learnt, studied and practiced the concepts in this thread then you should be able to trade a small account on the daily timeframe and grow it relatively quickly IMO. The amount of pairs the likes of FxPro offers means there are ample opportunities to take trades on the daily TF.
  • #62,250
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:35am Apr 29, 2010 12:35am
enter demo this pair on break of BEOB. Not the highest bar on swing high location. But what i see is it is trading away from PPZ. and my FTA is at 1.64. so still got some room for it to move. any comments are welcome.... thanks alot...

rdgs,
skin
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  • #62,251
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:42am Apr 29, 2010 12:42am
Quoting mbqb11
from his profile!

Hi everybody,

Ghous reporting...(Ghous is not like goose or ghost. I always tell ppl to replace the letter B in BOSS with G to come close enough to the actual pronunciation)
Well yea but you'll only come close to it but not the exact pronunciation.

Actually you have to combine GH like CH.

But the sound that comes out of GH is never used in English language/speaking.

So i think no one could get it right until you does't listen it from me/himself.
.
  • #62,252
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:44am Apr 29, 2010 12:44am
Someone needs to post an mp3 with the correct pronunciation. I am fascinated now.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #62,253
  • Edited 1:01am Apr 29, 2010 12:48am | Edited 1:01am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Nas

I do, but I would have needed more info then just engulfing 1 prior bar. i would want to see a story. Obviously never closed below and bounced off the BRN though

Best
Mike
BEOB is there (assuming), BRN is there, Momentum is there (looking at size of previous bear bar bars), Price has closed below the BRN and PPZ @ 5530 as well, Space is there until 5387.

So what's the part of the story that i am missing here?

Thanks
.
  • #62,254
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:59am Apr 29, 2010 12:59am
Quoting joelcf
Someone needs to post an mp3 with the correct pronunciation. I am fascinated now.
Lol but i don't have a mic.
.
  • #62,255
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:09am Apr 29, 2010 1:09am
Quoting nasir.khan
BEOB is there (assuming), BRN is there, Momentum is there (looking at size of previous bear bar bars), Price has closed below the BRN and PPZ @ 5530 as well, Space is there until 5387.

So what's the part of the story that i am missing here?

Thanks
.

Hey Nas

The reason is that BEOB is only engulfing one prior bar, on a 4hr chart that usually isn't enough in itself. If it was a continuation bar engulfing 1 bar off say a breakout pattern that might then be enough. But the aggregation of price could simply be what makes it engulf one prior bar. I just like more information the majority of the times to play contination bars(like englufing a range of bars is WAY better).

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #62,256
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:11am Apr 29, 2010 1:11am
Perhaps it's pronounced as 'Gauss'?
  • #62,257
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:13am Apr 29, 2010 1:13am
Quoting skinfx
enter demo this pair on break of BEOB. Not the highest bar on swing high location. But what i see is it is trading away from PPZ. and my FTA is at 1.64. so still got some room for it to move. any comments are welcome.... thanks alot...

rdgs,
skin
Nice one skin. Good target.

Don't think that the other BEOB (4.23) isn't in play here . . it is.

Nice trade.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #62,258
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:15am Apr 29, 2010 1:15am
Quoting fxeturn
Perhaps it's pronounced as 'Gauss'?
lol when Ghous gets on here he's gonna crack up
  • #62,259
  • Edited 1:34am Apr 29, 2010 1:21am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Nas

The reason is that BEOB is only engulfing one prior bar, on a 4hr chart that usually isn't enough in itself. If it was a continuation bar engulfing 1 bar off say a breakout pattern that might then be enough. But the aggregation of price could simply be what makes it engulf one prior bar. I just like more information the majority of the times to play contination bars(like englufing a range of bars is WAY better).

Hope that helps
Mike
Ok you mean like Daily beob's @ 1.55 and 1.60 on cable. Not enough bars to call it breakout but the authority (especially the first one) and the size is really telling me something.

Recently i have started considering the size of the bars comparing to previous one's and it helps alot in interpreting the charts.
.
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  • #62,260
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:25am Apr 29, 2010 1:25am
Quoting nasir.khan
BEOB is there
What is FFIMO anyway?:-(
Gone to a better place
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