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  • #11,801
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:25am Apr 28, 2010 11:25am
Quoting igmal
Last week I presented my triangles theory about this pair.The price hit the confluence of 2 triangles,yesterday closed as hanging man and today(not closed yet) is a rejection (could be a beob,will see) from the confluence.For me is the first sign that the price could take a down direction.On my data I have a stong SR level at 1.64.I will wait to see what will happening at 1.64 and if PA will show me some dowm move I will take it,looking to 1.59-1.60 with a station at 1.62(but all depends of PA).The boss shows LH,LL.If the price can't go under 1.64,I...
Last week I presented my triangles theory about this pair.The price hit the confluence of 2 triangles,yesterday closed as hanging man and today(not closed yet) is a rejection (could be a beob,will see) from the confluence.For me is the first sign that the price could take a down direction.On my data I have a stong SR level at 1.64.I will wait to see what will happening at 1.64 and if PA will show me some dowm move I will take it,looking to 1.59-1.60 with a station at 1.62(but all depends of PA).The boss shows LH,LL.If the price can't go under 1.64,I will watch what it will do only above 1.66.Anyway I will wait and take what the price gives me,and for both(up/down) situations I have a plan including tight MM.Thanks.

You are doing a half assed analysis. Always start with the Big Boss then the Boss and finally the Worker.

The Big Boss, just like EURJPY, has found support at the 78.6% critical level meaning that it is still technically in the uptrend from Jan 09.

The Boss is also in an up move.

The Worker might look like it wants to move down but it is fighting its Bosses.

You should only trade the Worker in harmony with its Bosses otherwise you will endure some very erratic trading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,802
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:31am Apr 28, 2010 11:31am
Quoting igmal
Hi Strat!For those who trade patterns,the evening star on xagusd could have been a good entry?In my opinion it has even a good position:the upper part of weekly triangle,it is making LH and in the range of weekly beob.
I don't have this pair and without a top down analysis, I am totally blind
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,803
  • Apr 28, 2010 1:04pm Apr 28, 2010 1:04pm
I took this trade on demo for the experience.
My question is should it have been taken on a live account.

Big Boss

PA below all MA's
and approaching support.
Fib 61.8 reach of upward move 1/1/09 to 1/8/09
March Bar is a doji.

Boss
PA below all MA's as well.

Worker
short term trend line break
Beeb
concerns 20/50 trap
support @ 1.5180
RR is at least 1 to 1

My plan was to close 50% @ 6/4 lows just through support 1.5140
(ticked that box.)
Stop was big @ 1.5530 300 pips.
maybe it's the little men, but I am thinking maybe it should just have been a ATM trade.

Comment welcome
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  • #11,804
  • Apr 28, 2010 1:15pm Apr 28, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting Money Magnet
I took this trade on demo for the experience.
My question is should it have been taken on a live account.

Big Boss

PA below all MA's
and approaching support.
Fib 61.8 reach of upward move 1/1/09 to 1/8/09
March Bar is a doji.

Boss
PA below all MA's as well.

Worker
short term trend line break
Beeb
concerns 20/50 trap
support @ 1.5180
RR is at least 1 to 1

My plan was to close 50% @ 6/4 lows just through support 1.5140
(ticked that box.)
Stop was big @ 1.5530 300 pips.
maybe it's the little men, but I am thinking maybe it should just have...
I took this trade on demo for the experience.
My question is should it have been taken on a live account.

Only YOU can answer this question

Big Boss

PA below all MA's
and approaching support.
Fib 61.8 reach of upward move 1/1/09 to 1/8/09
March Bar is a doji.

So, the Big Boss direction is ?

Boss
PA below all MA's as well.

So, the Boss direction is ?

Worker
short term trend line break
Beeb
concerns 20/50 trap
support @ 1.5180
RR is at least 1 to 1

So, the Worker direction is ?

My plan was to close 50% @ 6/4 lows just through support 1.5140
(ticked that box.)
Stop was big @ 1.5530 300 pips.
maybe it's the little men, but I am thinking maybe it should just have been a ATM trade.

The Boss is fighting the Big Boss so………………………………………………..
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,805
  • Apr 28, 2010 2:56pm Apr 28, 2010 2:56pm
[quote=strat;3680404]Now do the fib on the Jan 09 to Jun 09 move and you will see that Feb and March this year stopped at the critical 78.6% level. This tells us that the move up from Jan 09 is still intact. Its not looking good but it is still valid and will remain so until that 78.6% level is broken.

Hi Strat,
I had the same Fib on my chart as Dave's but I had one more Fib which was from its major high of 169ish in June 08 to low of 112ish in Jan 09. Now the confusion is why we will draw Fib from low to high instead of high to low.
Price goes up make major high or swing high and retrace back to swing low and we do fib from swing/major high to swing/major low and when price goes down then retrace back up then do low to high, but in EURJPY case should we not apply high to low instead of low to high. It is just a question for learning purposes may be I am missing a point somewhere.
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  • #11,806
  • Apr 28, 2010 3:15pm Apr 28, 2010 3:15pm
[quote=simpleman;3681148]
Quoting strat
Now do the fib on the Jan 09 to Jun 09 move and you will see that Feb and March this year stopped at the critical 78.6% level. This tells us that the move up from Jan 09 is still intact. Its not looking good but it is still valid and will remain so until that 78.6% level is broken.

Hi Strat,
I had the same Fib on my chart as Dave's but I had one more Fib which was from its major high of 169ish in June 08 to low of 112ish in Jan 09. Now the confusion is why we will draw Fib from low to high instead of high...
I’m confused with the confusion!

First, the only reason to add Fibonacci is to measure the retrace. Whether you pull it from high to low or vice versa depends on how you have your Fib Tool set up. I’m not really sure but I may have my Fib Tool set upside down to the standard MT4 Fib Tool. This is only because of the way I apply it to a chart.

So whichever way your fib tool is set up, you draw it so that the % retrace increases with the direction of the retrace – see attached.

Does this answer it?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,807
  • Apr 28, 2010 3:18pm Apr 28, 2010 3:18pm
[quote=strat;3681183]
Quoting simpleman

Does this answer it?

Absolutely YES.
  • #11,808
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:11pm Apr 28, 2010 4:11pm
Im not a fundamental expert but I would surmise that since the bank of new zealand is keep rates steady this may present an oppurtunity to long aud/nzd.

Of course we should wait for a good signal.....
Annoying Precision
  • #11,809
  • Apr 28, 2010 6:37pm Apr 28, 2010 6:37pm
Good evening Strat!Today,you named 78.6 fib level and you call it a "critical" level.You said that the price find S at 78.6% so the price keeps the direction.So is 78.6% a maximum limit till where the price could retreace? Ex:up trend-price retreaces till 78.6% fib ,where is the last level where the price could make a HL,if the price goes through 78.6%,could reach 100%>no more HL>no more up trend.Could you please explain more?Thanks.
P.S. Sorry for my "lagging" english and black background.
My humble opinion.
  • #11,810
  • Edited 7:03pm Apr 28, 2010 6:52pm | Edited 7:03pm
Reading the recent posts about E/J trend, Aussie and the Euro, I am compelled to reproduce this economically sensitive chart which has guided my trading over recent months, Absent the geo-political rumblings of it's Greek/JPY counterpart, this pair has proved consistent and begs the question posed by Strat: why should larger traders forcus on E/J rather than investing here?

Moreover, at this point, given the brief risk aversion opportunity in U/J 2 days ago and the look of A/J, does the Greek/JPY now present an undervalued, politically slammed bargain at this level given the fibo/weekly/monthly supportive charting? The monthly chart does not fully answer the question yet, for me at least.
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  • #11,811
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:06pm Apr 28, 2010 7:06pm
Indeed:
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  • #11,812
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:48pm Apr 28, 2010 7:48pm
This is a very impressive and interesting thread you created here Strat!!!

One question though... for your daily charts - at what time of day do your bars open and close?

At Oanda for example the daily bars start at midnight EST (US) which is 6 a.m. in Europe (where I live) which means that a good part of the Asian session is already over. Wouldn't it be more reasonable to have daily bars start at a time between US close and Asia opening like 6 p.m. EST (US) for example?
  • #11,813
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:41pm Apr 28, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting sixx58
This is a very impressive and interesting thread you created here Strat!!!

One question though... for your daily charts - at what time of day do your bars open and close?

At Oanda for example the daily bars start at midnight EST (US) which is 6 a.m. in Europe (where I live) which means that a good part of the Asian session is already over. Wouldn't it be more reasonable to have daily bars start at a time between US close and Asia opening like 6 p.m. EST (US) for example?
Find what best fits you! The whole purpose is to trade stress free so try and find a broker with a daily close that fits your lifestyle and is comfortable for you.

And make sure you read the whole thread this has been talked about many times!
  • #11,814
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:52pm Apr 28, 2010 8:52pm
Folks, take a look at the AUDUSD charts and go for your entries as speculations are rife about a rate hike next week. That should make for some sweet 200 - 300 pips...
From the tips to the dips, it's all about the pips
  • #11,815
  • Apr 28, 2010 9:06pm Apr 28, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting sixx58
This is a very impressive and interesting thread you created here Strat!!!

One question though... for your daily charts - at what time of day do your bars open and close?

At Oanda for example the daily bars start at midnight EST (US) which is 6 a.m. in Europe (where I live) which means that a good part of the Asian session is already over. Wouldn't it be more reasonable to have daily bars start at a time between US close and Asia opening like 6 p.m. EST (US) for example?
I believe 5 pm est. if I'm not mistaken. Be sure to take your time and read the whole thread, it will have been well worth the effort. The answers to your questions are contained within. Strat likes everyone to read the entire thread for getting their questions answered. He has a unique style of teaching and IMO is well worth the time invested. If Strat gets on to you because you didn't read and find the answers don't take it in a bad way, it's just his style and you'll come to appreciate him like the rest of us. You're at the right spot for learning how to take your trading to the next level. I've progressed leaps and bounds since finding my way here. Thanks Strat and all contributors, I've learned a lot from you all. Excuse my ramble, just needed said. Cheers,
T
  • #11,816
  • Edited 9:35pm Apr 28, 2010 9:34pm | Edited 9:35pm
Quoting strat
The Big Boss has made a retrace from the 119.70ish level up to the fib 38.2 around 127.80ish and possibly has completed this retrace and begun the continuation of the major downtrend line from August 2008. ...
Strat: I didn't consider the fib retrace on that swing you mention on the EURJPY. It makes sense when you are looking at the big picture.

I'm still focused on the worker chart so much that I am really not staying aware of the bigger picture like I should. I know I need to do that, but recently I'm getting more oriented toward looking for swings on the worker and neglecting to really think about the Big Boss first. I'm struggling with that. I will overcome that problem with time. Possibly Strat, since you are more aware from experience that the big money is made by catching the big moves, you are confident in waiting for the swings and retraces to work themselves out and then get in for the long term trend. For me, (up to this point) I'm going for the little swings. The "base hits" so to speak. A little nibble here and there. That may be just an excuse to avoid the self-discipline and patience that required to sit on the sideline and wait until everything lines up. But I am getting better at it all the time, and I have needed some small successes to give me confidence and faith in the system, which I am getting. Experience and some success along the way is improving my confidence in the system so it is getting a little easier to sit tight as time goes by, but it is still a struggle.

One of the main difficulties I have is waiting for the move to play itself out and either prove me right or wrong. Sometimes, after you enter, it can take days for price to finally make its move to the target and in the meantime the market seems to do everything possible to shake you out, scare you, or convince you that you have made the wrong decision. Then just when you change your plan and say to hell with it and throw in the towel the market skyrockets right up to tag the price you knew it would -- and there you are crying in your beer about the lost opportunity. But I am getting better at waiting and having faith in PASR all the time so this is happening less now. That is major progress for me. I still change my original plan sometimes, but not as often as in the beginning, and I am using good risk management which I never violate.

At the level I'm at presently, I am only focused on finding high-probability setups using PASR and trading from one SR level to the next, just as you have taught us. I try to go with the worker trend as much as I can but I'm still taking some countertrend setups too. But I am getting away from the countertrend as much as possible.

At some point I want to be able to trend trade, but as you said in the beginning, it is much more difficult. I can see that now. For the time being I will keep learning the basics and getting prepared for the big moves that are sure to come.

So far I am very satisfied with the way things are going. Considering that the market conditions have not been all that easy for a beginner like myself to trade over the last few months I still have been able to increase my account equity to slightly over 10% in the last six weeks. That may be small by comparison to some of the heavy hitters but I am excited by it. I have never risked more than 2% on any one trade and therefore have not been stressed about blowing out my account. Best of all, I am gaining the experience and confidence that comes from learning how to trade in a way that I can count on to continue to produce the income I need to reach my goals.

Excuse me for going on so long here but I wanted to let everyone know some of the difficulties I have had -- and that if you stick with it you will overcome your own obstacles and be very thankful you did.

Dave
  • #11,817
  • Edited 1:09am Apr 29, 2010 1:05am | Edited 1:09am
Quoting sixx58
This is a very impressive and interesting thread you created here Strat!!!

One question though... for your daily charts - at what time of day do your bars open and close?

At Oanda for example the daily bars start at midnight EST (US) which is 6 a.m. in Europe (where I live) which means that a good part of the Asian session is already over. Wouldn't it be more reasonable to have daily bars start at a time between US close and Asia opening like 6 p.m. EST (US) for example?
Hello sixx58
I have the same issue and whilst I have not finished reading the thread I am yet to find any answers. I have tried a number of brokers to no avail.
What I do is the following:
after doing my analysis, I check at 8pm the evening before on the 4 hour TF as there is only 4 hours left on the daily bar, I then place pending orders if I feel relevant. Not ideal and I am not sure Strat would approve, but it seems to work for me.

If you do find a broker with opening bars that suit GMT trading please share.

thanks
Frank
  • #11,818
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:51am Apr 29, 2010 3:51am
[quote=igmal;3681559]Good evening Strat!Today,you named 78.6 fib level and you call it a "critical" level.You said that the price find S at 78.6% so the price keeps the direction.

Hi Igmal,

As far as I know (I am just a learner) prices can retrace upto 100%/161.80% and even 261.80% but the main thing is PASR which we should be following. I just wanted to give my view but Strat and other seniors are the best people to answer and don't worry about the background I am very close to you.
  • #11,819
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:03am Apr 29, 2010 4:03am
Quoting Money Magnet
Hello sixx58
I have the same issue and whilst I have not finished reading the thread I am yet to find any answers. I have tried a number of brokers to no avail.
What I do is the following:
after doing my analysis, I check at 8pm the evening before on the 4 hour TF as there is only 4 hours left on the daily bar, I then place pending orders if I feel relevant. Not ideal and I am not sure Strat would approve, but it seems to work for me.

If you do find a broker with opening bars that suit GMT trading please share.

thanks


Frank
Hi Frank,
Why not have two demo accounts one with EST and anothe GMT? till the time comfortable with any of them. I ahve one with FXCM US and another Alpari UK.
Cheers
Samad
  • #11,820
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:48am Apr 29, 2010 4:48am
Thanks guys for your answers. Trust me, I will dedicate as much time as necessary to go through this entire thread. Just wanted to start off at the same page - therefore my question.
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