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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,241
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:28am Apr 28, 2010 4:28am
Quoting Chantalb
Hello Shahab,
I am following your threads all the time and find them very informative. I am sorry to hear about your bad run yesterday, but I am certain you will make up for it.
[font=Calibri][size=3]I was wondering about the discrepancy I am encountering with the pivot levels. I mean I plotted your latest pivot indicators that you posted and still I can’t match your numbers. A while back, you gave a link to a website that calculated those levels; I can’t seem to find...
Hi Chantal, thanx for your comment, no bad run for yesterday, still holding the same gold shorts from yesterday it's never touched my sl, not yet.
how come you cant match my number? what are you using?

I posted two files

1-pivot points
2-pivot auto-weekly

1st one shows you daily pivot & s/r
2nd one shows you daily/weekly/monthly but you need to check them all on your indicator's option. take a look at it and let me know what is going on

btw here is the link , but I'm sure you can make the indi work, it works for everyone
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/

are you saying that your daily candles close at different time?
  • #2,242
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:50am Apr 28, 2010 4:50am
Quoting Tuner
30 pips for the moment.. not cashed in yet... and as I know myself I will end at BE if save it and I let it run. if I cash it in.. it goes further down...
So I can manipulate the market with my positions...
btw... My second E/G trade did come back down from +100.. and I closed it for +35
Did you have a look at my post from earlier today..? bunch of shorts on CAD/JPY and pretty unsure how to handle those now.
G'day Tuner, hope you still have that gold trade, it will start falling hard soon
  • #2,243
  • Apr 28, 2010 5:06am Apr 28, 2010 5:06am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
G'day Tuner, hope you still have that gold trade, it will start falling hard soon
Yes I am. left my initial SL --> good decision as it spiked back up there last night
So running it down now. Looks pretty nice already.
but going to save it at BE now I think and let it run..
btw..
Not trading gold that much... Is there a certain period ..after US close that Gold-spot is closed.. just for about 45 min or so.. never had a closer look at that before. it sometimes even gaps a little during that period of time lookin back at my charts.
What is that about?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,244
  • Apr 28, 2010 5:48am Apr 28, 2010 5:48am
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...erland.svg.png UBS AG

EURUSD: forecast change
We change our forecast for EURUSD to 1.32 (prev. 1.35) in three months, to 1.38 (1.42) in six months and to 1.45 (1.53) in twelve months. The euro has still a good potential to rise once the worst uncertainties concerning Greece have been overcome. The upside is however limited by Greek challenges.
EURJPY, USDJPY: We change our forecasts
We change our three, six and 12-month USDJPY forecasts to 97, 100 and 105 respectively (previously 92, 97 and 105), and our EURJPY forecasts to 128, 138 and 152 from 124, 138 and 161. We think neither the inflation targeting regime nor the zero interest rate could be effective without a weaker JPY.
AUD, NZD: We change our forecasts
We change our three, six and 12-month AUDUSD forecasts to 0.94, 0.95 and 0.95 respectively (previously 0.90, 0.94 and 0.95). We also change our NZDUSD forecasts to 0.73, 0.76 and 0.76 from 0.70, 0.73 and 0.76 previously. We see more resistance ahead for the Aussie and Kiwi on stretched valuation.
GBPUSD, EURGBP: Forecast change
We change our forecast for GBPUSD to 1.56 (prev. 1.50) in three months, to 1.60 (1.56) in six months and keep the 1.70 in twelve months.
We change our EURGBP forecast to 0.85 (prev. 0.90) in three months, to 0.86 (0.91) in six months and to 0.85 (0.90) in twelve months.
CHF: Forecast change
We change our EURCHF forecast to 1.40, 1.38, 1.40 (previously 1.44, 1.42, 1.42) and USDCHF forecast to 1.06, 1.0, 0.97 (previously 1.07, 1.0, 0.93) for three, six and twelve months. We expect the SNB to tolerate a slightly stronger franc from June, due to the solid Swiss economic data.
USDCAD: Forecast change
We lower our USDCAD forecast to 0.96 in three months (prev. 1.00), 0.95 in six months (0.98) and 0.93 in twelve months (0.95). We expect the CAD to benefit from the more aggressive monetary policy tightening of the BoC compared to the Fed.
  • #2,245
  • Apr 28, 2010 6:01am Apr 28, 2010 6:01am
Do you think we will see 94 on A/U?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,246
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:22am Apr 28, 2010 7:22am
Quoting MarcVUM
Do you think we will see 94 on A/U?
no way, a top is in place for this year ,the same for stocks , my only concern is gold, but that one will fall too. A/U is in a choppy falling mode like what happened to U/Chf Nov 08
A/u fall will accelerate soon, I sold again at .9231

keep my chart in mind ;-) the party has just started
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  • #2,247
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:37am Apr 28, 2010 7:37am
Quoting MarcVUM
Do you think we will see 94 on A/U?
Most definitely.

Its just a question of when rather than if. And also the path it takes from current level to reach 94. there are two possible ways:

1 - 9230 - 9130 - 9070 - 8950 - 9020 - 9190 - 9280 - 9330 - 9410
2 - 9230 - 9290 - 9330 - 9410

Obviously I'd much rather prefer 2nd option because my broker will go bankrupt if we go via 1st route.
  • #2,248
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:39am Apr 28, 2010 7:39am
Every single currency is tanking against US$ except for AUD. Why would you short AUD? Why would you fade trend of such a massive fundamentally strong currency? why would you keep hitting your S/L?

Imagine if AUD can survive this massive storm, when risk party is full on, where would we be???

BTW - I am still waiting for that cheque


Quoting shahab8b
no way, a top is in place for this year ,the same for stocks , my only concern is gold, but that one will fall too. A/U is in a choppy falling mode like what happened to U/Chf Nov 08
A/u fall will accelerate soon, I sold again at .9231

keep my chart in mind ;-) the party has just started
  • #2,249
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:42am Apr 28, 2010 7:42am
Quoting shahab8b
no way, a top is in place for this year ,the same for stocks , my only concern is gold, but that one will fall too. A/U is in a choppy falling mode like what happened to U/Chf Nov 08
A/u fall will accelerate soon, I sold again at .9231

keep my chart in mind ;-) the party has just started
As for interest rate - they will go UP again next week. 80% probability.
  • #2,250
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:43am Apr 28, 2010 7:43am
A/U
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  • #2,251
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:47am Apr 28, 2010 7:47am
Quoting shahab8b
A/U
I agree.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,252
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:51am Apr 28, 2010 7:51am
Quoting puks
As for interest rate - they will go UP again next week. 80% probability.
Hey Buddy, thanks for the heads up, I will keep that in mind, for today I'm bullish on USD unless FOMC ruins my day
  • #2,253
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:02am Apr 28, 2010 8:02am
Quoting shahab8b
Hey Buddy, thanks for the heads up, I will keep that in mind, for today I'm bullish on USD unless FOMC ruins my day
they will.

believe me.
  • #2,254
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:06am Apr 28, 2010 8:06am
Quoting shahab8b
Hey Buddy, thanks for the heads up, I will keep that in mind, for today I'm bullish on USD unless FOMC ruins my day
Wow, looks like the one day storm is over. Reminds me of that rain you get in Florida and then 15 minutes later it's hot and sunny again. And we've got green US futures at the moment.

FWIW

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,255
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:10am Apr 28, 2010 8:10am
Quoting puks
Every single currency is tanking against US$ except for AUD. Why would you short AUD? Why would you fade trend of such a massive fundamentally strong currency? why would you keep hitting your S/L?
BTW - I am still waiting for that cheque

  • #2,256
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:14am Apr 28, 2010 8:14am




Quoting shahab8b
  • #2,257
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:16am Apr 28, 2010 8:16am
Quoting Patience
Wow, looks like the one day storm is over. Reminds me of that rain you get in Florida and then 15 minutes later it's hot and sunny again. And we've got green US futures at the moment.

FWIW

Attachment
G'day patience, that's so true .
but I don't think this one is over, if I were playing poker , I would say all-in , but for now I'd say 6% total , betting on A/U and Gold
  • #2,258
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:22am Apr 28, 2010 8:22am
here is my reason
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  • #2,259
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:25am Apr 28, 2010 8:25am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day patience, that's so true .
but I don't think this one is over, if I were playing poker , I would say all-in , but for now I'd say 6% total , betting on A/U and Gold
Yeah, can't deny that it broke and closed above the recent highs yesterday on USDX. And it's gonna take a lot to turn this stunning weekly candle around.

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,260
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:37am Apr 28, 2010 8:37am
Bloomberg are saying that investors just used the "Greece and Portugal" excuse to take some money off the table and they are expecting the indices to rally back. I guess they've got to put their money somewhere
Nothing worth having is easy.
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