Hey Blue
Ultimately it is up to you b/c there is no closing in the forex market since it is not centralized. I prefer a close at 5pm est as this is after NY and when the other markets are closing thus the "end of the day" in my mind. price bars are just aggregation of price so yes sometimes you might not "see" the bar and other times you will but it comes down to everything together and more importantly location which never changes. Just use what is comfortable
Best
Mike
james16 Chart Thread
- #62,062
- Apr 27, 2010 5:15pm Apr 27, 2010 5:15pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
depends on what you're up againststrictly % wise that is
T5s is only 33% vs a standard opening range, about 4% better than T5o. But both are terrible reverse implied odds hands... you win a small pot, or lose a big one
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #62,063
- Edited 5:43pm Apr 27, 2010 5:22pm | Edited 5:43pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
Awesome post Dan, I think everyone who has "followed" you (not in a stalker way LOL) can see that you have become exceptionally good at J16 trading. Long may it continue. I hope to as well.
I know 1% sounds small and for me it is, maybe I too will have the revelation you had.
As for the BRNs, VBRNs, 500pip lines, etc... it really does open your eyes doesn't it? Trading no less than daily charts made me laugh too when I first heard Jim go on about it, and even right up to today I still have trouble swallowing it, but then the more I look the more I'm getting it. Some of my first posts weeks ago were trying to pin down the experts as to way waiting for daily setups was better than intraday. You know what? I'm just about a believer now... just. It'll come to me, I'll get there.
I had some success in them, but as soon as I had 2, 3 good winners, I would get taken out hard, and recognize why I messed up on a longer TF chart.
I will still look at a 4hr chart once in a while, not a big deal, but I wouldn't dare risk 2% on a 4hr chart ANYMORE.
so yes, you will get there, you will become a believer as long as you accept the fact that James has been doing this for so much longer than you and I. It's not a sprint, and the more you try to make it one, the harder it will get.
I love a pretty Pin, who doesn't, but I love the risk:reward potential of an IB/I4B, but yes IBs under daily frames are... DANGEROUS!!!! I leave well alone. Daily and above seem wonderful....
)So I am going to still just look for Pins and I4Bs, but now only at VBRNs and using mini-flip PPZs along the way to manage the trade sensibly. And yes only dailys. Whats the worst that can happen?!
You will get impatient and set your rifle down, and pick up a shotgun.
EDIT:
note that the recent pinbar I took on USDCAD was NOT bouncing off a BRN, I took it. STRONG PPZ+trend made it easy for me. but I also recognized the BRN we were heading for, and realized i wasn't going to hang on to that trade beyond the 1.0000 (although I was taken out at B/E)
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
- #62,065
- Apr 27, 2010 5:38pm Apr 27, 2010 5:38pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
T5s is only 33% vs a standard opening range, about 4% better than T5o. But both are terrible reverse implied odds hands... you win a small pot, or lose a big one
Trading fits my personality 10x better than poker.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
- #62,067
- Apr 27, 2010 5:49pm Apr 27, 2010 5:49pm
Trading fits my personality 10x better than poker.
whats going on with the yen today?
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #62,069
- Apr 27, 2010 5:58pm Apr 27, 2010 5:58pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
their loss, our gain
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
- #62,071
- Apr 27, 2010 6:16pm Apr 27, 2010 6:16pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
- #62,073
- Apr 27, 2010 6:44pm Apr 27, 2010 6:44pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
- #62,075
- Edited 7:14pm Apr 27, 2010 7:10pm | Edited 7:14pm
Yeah Dan that USDCAD pin on 19th April (I think that's the one you took) ws a beauty, straight down on the 20th to the 1.0000 LOL!!
Yes 1% compounded can tally up but I think, looking at the numbers, and without wanting to be greedy and unrealistic, 2% per week would have to be my target to aspire to. Constantly compounding 2% per week, starting with a modest account, will grow like tomatoes in a grow-bag 2% per week is the number in my head. Possible? I think so...?
Back to I4Bs quickly.... you seem convinced that I4Bs work almost everytime at (V)BRNs, but what about regular IBs, or say I3Bs? Do you just stick to the 4's? Coz James started off talking about IBs in general methinks, yet I realise the added bonus of a IB being the smallest out of X amount of bars back - it can explode all the more. Do you play anything less than a 4 for IBs?
Would you say strong, obvious PPZs are better than (V)BRNs? Hard question I know. Obviously both together = confluence and are always ideal places to play PA, but to wait for such a confluence plus an I4B may mean you trade once a year LOL!
1 last question: do your IBs have to literally "straddle" the (V)BRNs? If it doesn't, then wont you play it? Why? For example, if an I4B is tucked up against a VBRN or well defined decent PPZ above it, I understand going long is suicidal into the VBRN, but what is wrong with a short if it breaks down? I think in that example you looked at (the post from the guy with 2 charts asking your opinion a couple hours ago) you said a down break would be playing against the trend... is that it? I know you are the Trend Master General LOL!!
I'm not so hot on following the trend as they can turn at any time right? But trend aside, do you know of any other reason by you wouldn't have shorted that IB if ithad broken down away from the VBRN?
Lastly... thanks for all your time and help
Trig
Yes 1% compounded can tally up but I think, looking at the numbers, and without wanting to be greedy and unrealistic, 2% per week would have to be my target to aspire to. Constantly compounding 2% per week, starting with a modest account, will grow like tomatoes in a grow-bag
2% per week is the number in my head. Possible? I think so...?Back to I4Bs quickly.... you seem convinced that I4Bs work almost everytime at (V)BRNs, but what about regular IBs, or say I3Bs? Do you just stick to the 4's? Coz James started off talking about IBs in general methinks, yet I realise the added bonus of a IB being the smallest out of X amount of bars back - it can explode all the more. Do you play anything less than a 4 for IBs?
Would you say strong, obvious PPZs are better than (V)BRNs? Hard question I know. Obviously both together = confluence and are always ideal places to play PA, but to wait for such a confluence plus an I4B may mean you trade once a year LOL!
1 last question: do your IBs have to literally "straddle" the (V)BRNs? If it doesn't, then wont you play it? Why? For example, if an I4B is tucked up against a VBRN or well defined decent PPZ above it, I understand going long is suicidal into the VBRN, but what is wrong with a short if it breaks down? I think in that example you looked at (the post from the guy with 2 charts asking your opinion a couple hours ago) you said a down break would be playing against the trend... is that it? I know you are the Trend Master General LOL!!
I'm not so hot on following the trend as they can turn at any time right? But trend aside, do you know of any other reason by you wouldn't have shorted that IB if ithad broken down away from the VBRN?Lastly... thanks for all your time and help
Trig
- #62,077
- Apr 27, 2010 7:13pm Apr 27, 2010 7:13pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
..and a couple of rac's cave rolls
- #62,079
- Apr 27, 2010 7:16pm Apr 27, 2010 7:16pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.