Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

30 pips for the moment.. not cashed in yet... and as I know myself I will end at BE if save it and I let it run. if I cash it in.. it goes further down...
So I can manipulate the market with my positions...
btw... My second E/G trade did come back down from +100.. and I closed it for +35
Did you have a look at my post from earlier today..? bunch of shorts on CAD/JPY and pretty unsure how to handle those now.

yea I saw that, excellent trading, if I were you TP on 2/3 then for 1/3 SL>B/E let them run for a while

Think I will do so... Just seen we bounced of the daily LTL today
Had that on my other charts.
Will consider some pending shorts to get triggered on the way up again.

Had really wide stops and further pending orders to the upside.
This is my micro-account and each trade only a tiny micro-lot..
But anyway.. nice pips

A/U

U/J

hey guys..... thanks...... just got back in.....dang, what went on today.......

shah, i'll look into coding what you mentioned.....

hey tuner..... What is "that red line" showing? the red lines are some complex math designed to plot a line both above and below the price that will seldom be crossed.... it's almost repelled by the price.... once touched or crossed a turn usually follows....

how are the Long trades triggered .... rsi < 9 and ask below lowest red line.....

Setting to BE and trailing the stop is a hard thing to do.
(I got the "talent" to end up at BE on my trades too often to answer that .... breakeven seldom works for me either ..... maybe never........... and the only trailing stop that works consistantly is a total pip trailing stop where the profit/loss of all the trades are added and a precentage is trailed..... you might notice in some of the pictures a maxpips and trail label in the lower left..... the maxpips is the maximum achieved on that pair and the trial value is the trailing precentage of it..... once the price retraces to the trail amount, all trades are closed....

what was the trigger to add to the trades? pending orders are set above and below the original entry at preset distances.... those distances are determined by various factors..... each time a pending order is hit, another is placed out at twice the preset distance plus an extra amount.... the point is to increase the distance out as the number of trades increases..... that's why sometimes there will be 20 or 30 open trades..... eventally there will be so many that the distance to the next pending order will be too far out to be hit....

daily s1 or s2 as targets.. but considering the weekly pivot R1/2 .... i'll look into coding this..... thanks.....h

G/J

S&P 500, looking at this the best options will be short A/U N/U A/J N/J Cad/J and long U/Cad

Hey there hayseed,

Thanks for explaining. That's what I thought somehow on the red line.
So there are extremely overbought /-sold areas. Seems to work out

yea... the trailing.. with multiple positions it gets even more complicated.
your way of handling them all together sounds a good way. but only the ea can manage that then

a lot of "brain-work" put into this.
Keep up the good work!

How long do you test your ea's on demo before you let them handle the real cash?

Is The Recession At An End? Don't Bet On It
by John Browne – Provided by Euro Pacific Captial

From all outward appearances, it seems that a grim chapter in U.S. economic history has come to an end. Newsweek magazine declares that "America is Back," government statistics indicate revival, and our stock market has put in a rally for the record books (by rate of ascent, not highs - we are still more than 25% below the 2007 peak).

And yet, despite massive federal stimuli and subsidies, American unemployment clings stubbornly to the 10 per cent level, with the "underemployment" rate closer to 20 per cent. The IMF does not appear to buy into Washington's optimism; it projects a "double dip" contraction by the second half of this year. With so much conflicting sentiment, it is difficult for investors to know whether the cup is half-empty or half-full.

On a technical basis, stock market gains of 50 per cent or more in a twelve month period should indicate dangerous downside potential. On the other hand, the markets of early 2009 had priced in the likelihood of financial Armageddon. The meltdown did not happen, so traders and brave investors have been quickly buying up the deeply discounted equities.

However, many remain suspicious, believing that the catastrophe had been postponed rather than overcome. The vast bulk of investment funds are sitting on the sidelines, invested in fixed income despite historically low interest rates. Investors have also sought safety in gold, driving its price to above $1,000 an ounce or about half its inflation-adjusted peak price in 1980.

But as the stock market rally beginning in March '09 has extended through the summer, fall, winter and now spring, more and more investors are being drawn into the optimism. The carnage of October '08 may now seem to many like a distant memory -- or maybe just a bad dream.

Admittedly, the earnings of some American bellwether companies, such as IBM, Apple, and Yahoo, have come through far better than expected. More recently, the earnings of financial giants like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs (despite its ethical lapses and pending legal problems) have dazzled on the upside. The strong earnings are creating a drumbeat in the markets with a steady march higher. The results are buoyed by a strong surge of underlying consumer spending and government stimuli. However, no one seems to spend much thought on how the forces came about and how likely they are to remain.

Without doubt, some of the trillions of dollars thrown into the economy by the federal government are filtering through to consumer spending. In addition, an ever greater percentage of mortgage holders have decided to ignore their mortgage payments and condo maintenance obligations. The sudden windfall of extra cash has pumped up spending. But is this a measure of real economic recovery?

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says the economy is stable. Many people believe him. But, at the same time as he advertises economic recovery, Bernanke tells us that short-term Fed rates will be kept at zero "for an extended period." Why would he risk runaway inflation by holding interest rates down if the economy were truly rebounding?

ECONOMY Understanding Expectations: The Fed Funds Rate

Furthermore, despite creating and spending these trillions of new dollars, the Fed continues to resist heavy Congressional pressure to show the public where the money has gone. Rumor has it that some of the money went to institutions outside America. In today's world, can we trust the central bank?

Government pronouncements and the Wall Street media have been castigating Greece for prolific spending and false accounting. Other nations such as Ireland, Spain and Portugal are considered pending dangers to the international monetary system. The fact is that, based on deficit to GDP ratios, the UK (12.6%) lies third behind Iceland (15.7%) and Greece (12.7%)! The United States (10.6%) lies sixth behind Ireland (12.2%) and Spain (11.4%)! The risk of an international meltdown is no longer restricted to banks. It now threatens entire nations, including the great powers. The price of gold reflects just a part of this risk.

Unfortunately, the economic position of the United States and the member states of the European Union, excluding Germany, is not as healthy as our media and politicians would have us believe. The danger is even greater when measured against the relative security and economic success of China, India, Brazil, Australia, Canada and New Zealand (BIC-CAN). In such countries, economic growth and financial responsibility are real. At home, I'm afraid the reports of our recovery are greatly exaggerated.

no sh#t sherlock

Gold

G/U

E/U

G/U (1.5283) short in play, Sl>B/E as I'm going to sleep and I don't like to wake up and see cable trade in red, still short A/U (.9215) and Gold 1168-1170

Hello Shahab,
I am following your threads all the time and find them very informative. I am sorry to hear about your bad run yesterday, but I am certain you will make up for it.
I was wondering about the discrepancy I am encountering with the pivot levels. I mean I plotted your latest pivot indicators that you posted and still I can’t match your numbers. A while back, you gave a link to a website that calculated those levels; I can’t seem to find it. Can you please repost it and tell me whether the difference of my level with yours is probably due to the different brokers? Another thing, if I want to have very accurate pivot levels regardless of what numbers my platform gives, how should I go about that? By the way my broker time is GMT+2 for this period of year.
Thank you,
Chantal

This pivot indi can adjust to any start time you like.

G/U trade 114 pips *2

A/U trade 50 pips* 2
S>R worked well

E/U
no trade has been taken - reason :reading other people notes about how stupid is to take a short at this level and not following what I think is right