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  • #11,761
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:04am Apr 27, 2010 3:04am
Quoting stewrigh
Don't want to be negative but I really don't understand why anyone would take this trade.

Look at where we are - this is a huge S/R area.

Surely Strats method advocates looking at these areas and SEEing how price reacts.

I'm also watching this pair at the moment but I'm waiting for PA to tell me where to go.

Am I missing something??
I agree with you.
Trading any of those hammers means buying into a major Resistance. The R is very visible on weekly and monthly chart. So buying into an area where it is expected to be defended by sellers is not a good ideea. And by sellers i mean those that actually move the market. If you are not one of those traders that moves the market, then its advisable to wait and go with the winners.

If you are a day scalper then I see why you would be inclined to buy the 1st hammer and have a TP under the R. If your TP level wasn't reached then surly you would tighten your stop. Then you would have been stopped by the 2nd hammer as Lou said.
  • #11,762
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:12am Apr 27, 2010 3:12am
Quoting CrudeCraig
The trend is still up and i have not been proven wrong yet

We have not had a good close below .9235 yet

The worker 50 has shown that there is still demand there
I think that this pair started slowing down when the $ started showing that it was changing direction. Although the aussie is still strong so is the $ now so we are going to see a bit of ranging here.

Just something to bear in mind when considering the potential of any nice signals on this pair, we might have to lower the horizon of our expectations to that 94 zone for the time being.

Larry
  • #11,763
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:19am Apr 27, 2010 3:19am
[quote=tmanbone;3672473]Simpleman,

I see the AUD/USD chart in a broadening wedge pattern, look up the definition @ investopedia, it will help you understand the indecisiveness of the pattern.

Thanks tmanbone, you are correct I should have looked at the bigger picture as well and agre that not a very good RR available as the prices are very close to resisstance. Thos who have entered early in this trade near 90ish have had a good run. GPBUSD has come down a bit and very close to near the Friday hammer. I have started demo trading yesterday and the first trade I took first trade on the basis of PA was EURJPY which played out quite well and got out with some demo pips.

As all the pairs are in the middle of their retracements or trend I find it quite difficult to get in low and sell high in other words keep the profits running. EURAUD might will provide this opportunity.

I wish if I were a song writer Strat wold have palyed the song with his guitar. heeeeeeeeeeee.
  • #11,764
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:25am Apr 27, 2010 3:25am
Quoting erikte279
You already should have been long on the first hammer
Hi Erikte,

Thanks for that but I just started my demo yesterday with a first succesful trade. As my understanding and confidence grows I will be able to make better decisions on what and when to take OR leave and I have not forgotten that I have given myself last chance, if I am not succesful this time then I will be out of this business as it won't be for me then.
  • #11,765
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:29am Apr 27, 2010 3:29am
Quoting stewrigh
Strat,

Can I ask why you include volume on your charts sometimes.

To me they're just another useless indicator.

Am I missing something again?

Look at the spike on your dollar chart and what price did - exactly nothing.

I'm confused and a little surprised that you include them on your charts but I must admit I don't understand vo - yet.
Stewrigh,
that is not the Forex volume, its Futures volume from where Dollar Index can be traded (probably from NYSE but i'm not sure). Anyway, that volume comes from a central place where it can be measured.

You can get charts like that here: http://www.timingcharts.com/
  • #11,766
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:44am Apr 27, 2010 9:44am
Quoting Money Magnet
Strat would this be a wobble as you have referred to in the past?
No, my wobble is between SR trading levels.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,767
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:46am Apr 27, 2010 9:46am
Quoting Rubens PP
Hi all,

A possible ATM trade on EURUSD back to 1.346?
View based on last three candles on Worker as well as triple bottom formation..

Would love to hear your comments.

Rubens
There is no momentum or direction for trading EURUSD on the Daily time frame. I'm waiting for some ACTION.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,768
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:50am Apr 27, 2010 9:50am
Quoting stewrigh
Strat,

Can I ask why you include volume on your charts sometimes.

To me they're just another useless indicator.

Am I missing something again?

Look at the spike on your dollar chart and what price did - exactly nothing.

I'm confused and a little surprised that you include them on your charts but I must admit I don't understand vo - yet.
These are Futures charts. Futures are traded through a Central Exchange where Volume can be measured.

Using volume is not as straight forward or as logical as it would appear.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,769
  • Apr 27, 2010 10:18am Apr 27, 2010 10:18am
The discussions on trading AUDUSD are as a result of individual trading styles. However, those learning basic PASR should NOT be trading AUDUSD at this level.

My personal trading style is trend foremost, position next and a quickie ATM when the opportunity presents itself.

Trading AUDUSD at this level is like bouncing on a trampoline in a room with a 6ft ceiling – as soon as you go up you bang your head and get whacked down. I have no interest whatsoever in getting my head whacked. Yes, it is tradable but not on the Worker. This should be done on a shorter time frame.

Think about where we are. We are at previous resistance tested many times. What and who is up there? There is a LOT of energy. I have no idea where that energy is focused. There are a lot of buyers and sellers each with their own agenda. I, for one, do not want to be caught in a battle between the buyers and sellers.

Yes, this resistance will be broken, at some point in time, but I’m not clever enough or have the inside scoop to know when. Until that time, I will wait.

When it breaks and tests resistance, I will be interested. At that point, there will be lots of opportunity. If it doesn’t break resistance, it will fall back down again and when it reaches the PRICE level which is attractive for me to trade it back up to resistance, I will buy it again.

To me, those trading it on the Worker are either expert traders, or know something I don’t, have a very high risk tolerance or are desperate to trade. I don’t qualify for any of these so I’m not interested.

Now that’s not to say that those trading it are wrong and I’m right. There are no rights or wrongs in trading, only winners and losers.

Had I traded this, my PLAN would have me entered above the hammer and out at the FIRST most recent R on a TP. On my data, I would have bought at 0.9280 with a TP at 0.9330 which, for me, is not worth engaging the gray matter between my ears.

Having said that, it is good practice for those with a high risk tolerance and a hunger for trading.

For me, I just want to lock in on a boring trend, get into Fat City and add trades like there is no tomorrow. Something like you see on EURAUD, EURCAD.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,770
  • Apr 27, 2010 11:11am Apr 27, 2010 11:11am
Quoting strat
The discussions on trading AUDUSD are as a result of individual trading styles. However, those learning basic PASR should NOT be trading AUDUSD at this level.

My personal trading style is trend foremost, position next and a quickie ATM when the opportunity presents itself.

[font=Arial]Trading AUDUSD at this level is like bouncing on a trampoline in a room with a 6ft ceiling – as soon as you go up you bang your head and get whacked down. I have no interest whatsoever in getting my head whacked. Yes, it is tradable...
Great post Strat, a lot of value information in this post. It happens very often that after a big strong trend, there will be a wide ranging market. Knowing how you stand on this, very helpful.
  • #11,771
  • Apr 27, 2010 11:37am Apr 27, 2010 11:37am
Well dont give up. I've been at this for over 1.5 years and am still not NET profitable, meaning I havent made ANYTHING from trading relative to my total losses (Around 23k).

When the hammer hits the chisel just know that your one step closer to becoming a Professional Trader.


Quoting simpleman
Hi Erikte,

Thanks for that but I just started my demo yesterday with a first succesful trade. As my understanding and confidence grows I will be able to make better decisions on what and when to take OR leave and I have not forgotten that I have given myself last chance, if I am not succesful this time then I will be out of this business as it won't be for me then.
Annoying Precision
  • #11,772
  • Apr 27, 2010 12:11pm Apr 27, 2010 12:11pm
It'll be interesting to see how this develops....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic17.gif Size: 21 KB
Annoying Precision
  • #11,773
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:33pm Apr 27, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting simpleman
AUDUSD has made a very nice inverted hammer after Sunday's IB. As the daily and weekly trend is bullish therefore my stance would be to go up at current price with stop at trendline break of 92 or just below the low of Friday hammer. Ressistance is at 93.60

There are hammers on other pairs as well but I don't know why they will go up when Dollar index is showing bullish signs, but lets' see.

Your help and comments will surely be welcomed.
AUDUSD has made a very nice inverted hammer after Sunday's IB.

Do you understand Sunday bars? Do you understand what they do and don’t represent? Have you experience in trading Sunday bars?

If the answer is “No”, then forget Sunday bars until such times as you understand them.

IB.

Do you understand IBs?

If the answer is “No”, then forget them. IBs are not part of my basic PASR teachings and are for learning in Advanced Trading Techniques.

As the daily and weekly trend is bullish therefore my stance would be to go up at current price with stop at trendline break of 92 or just below the low of Friday hammer. Ressistance is at 93.60

See my Post # 11769

There are hammers on other pairs as well but I don't know why they will go up when Dollar index is showing bullish signs, but lets' see.

It sounds like you need to decide whether you are a fundamental trader or technical trader.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,774
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:33pm Apr 27, 2010 1:33pm
[quote=erikte279;3676008]Well dont give up. I've been at this for over 1.5 years and am still not NET profitable,

I will definelty give it a second thought but let see how I go with it, hopefully this way of doing trading will turn out at least break-even and if I don't loose I will think I am successful. I might will practice six month demo trading and then go live.

I also have lost around $30k in last 4/5 years some of it was due to boiler room scam when I was just an investor and not trader. Loses are part of business I am in but there is a limit to how far you can go. But good advice and I will try my best to sail through smoothly and carefully.
  • #11,775
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:44pm Apr 27, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting Money Magnet
I guess Crudecraig and Erikte actually have a plan and are sticking to it.

That on it's own is fantastic.
Correct and it doesn't matter whether someone else thinks its right or wrong.

You MUST and ALWAYS believe and have confidence in your own ability.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,776
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:49pm Apr 27, 2010 1:49pm
[quote=stewrigh;3673242]Strat,



Look at the spike on your dollar chart and what price did - exactly nothing.

Am I missing something again?

PRICE doing NOTHING on a lot of VOLUME tells those that know, A LOT!

Never, EVER, discount or ignore anything to do with PRICE or VOLUME (Futures or Commodity - NOT Forex) on a chart.

These are the footprints we follow!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,777
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:54pm Apr 27, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting strat
There is no momentum or direction for trading EURUSD on the Daily time frame. I'm waiting for some ACTION.
Yeah, I mean 180+ pips daily range today---pathetic

LOL

Larry
  • #11,778
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:55pm Apr 27, 2010 1:55pm
[quote=simpleman;3673756]
Quoting tmanbone
Simpleman,

I see the AUD/USD chart in a broadening wedge pattern, look up the definition @ investopedia, it will help you understand the indecisiveness of the pattern.

Thanks tmanbone, you are correct I should have looked at the bigger picture as well and agre that not a very good RR available as the prices are very close to resisstance. Thos who have entered early in this trade...
As all the pairs are in the middle of their retracements

As soon as you see this or say it, you have your PLAN - STAY OUT

If you don't understand why, the answer starts on Post #1 on Page #1 - keep on reading until you get the answer.

In fact a re-read and particularly a read and UNDERSTANDING would be a very good thing for you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,779
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:57pm Apr 27, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting strat
AUDUSD has made a very nice inverted hammer after Sunday's IB.

Do you understand Sunday bars? Do you understand what they do and don’t represent? Have you experience in trading Sunday bars?

If the answer is “No”, then forget Sunday bars until such times as you understand them.

IB.

Do you understand IBs?

[font=Arial]If the answer is “No”, then forget them. IBs are not part of my basic...
Hi Strat,


Sunday bars and internal bars have been mentioned on several occassions on this thread and therefore I have kind of feeling that I do understand them, but I didn't realize that I have crossed the limit of basic PASR. May be it is downside of reading the thread from the beginng to the point where basic merges with advance and those who were around were discussing it freely, so it took for granted. If basic PA is SS and Hammer then I better follow them only till the time comes when they are profitable for me.

I had cancelled my demo order on AUDUSD early morning today after realizing that the trade is not me and it was close to its major resistance.

I am trying to be technical analyst that is why I am on this thread learning from you and others. But at the same time if I see DXY with bullish PA then I will have to assume that EURUSD/GBPUSD (not USDCAD/CHF) will go to the opposite side even with PA or vice versa. Both the pairs can't go on DXY way as they both are almost 75% of DXY.

Hope that answers your question. I am beginner and want to go step by step, I know it is difficult to come over bad habits but I will come over that's for sure.
  • #11,780
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:58pm Apr 27, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting LarryK
Yeah, I mean 180+ pips daily range today---pathetic

LOL

Larry
It is pretty pathetic. Piece of garbage couldn't even retrace to 1.38. Get out of the way bulls and let the bear train make its way to 1.29 and then onto 1.25. This monthly posturing is getting ridiculous.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
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