Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

long A/U here at .9170 SL=30 TP=100

+ long E/U at 1.3228 SL=30 TP=100

reason both pairs close to weekly S1 I expect some rebound here

hey guys and gals..... if yall have the time, take a few minutes and think of targets for me.... in the pictures below, the first is typical chart with price bars..... second has price bars removed and zoomed out so you can see the outer labels..... last shows only nearest labels.....

the pivots to the right are my version of amy's...... so you can see the daily/weekly pivots....

the daily atr's high/low/max are the adr from prior close.... somewhat like patience has mentioned before.... the week and month adr range is also available but not shown..... so you can see if the price has moved it's full average daily atr.....

the dotted red like is the mt4lsr shah uses......

//-------------

the ea's first trade went in short at .7235 ...... for those wanting to know why, rsi was over 90 on the 4hour chart and the ask was above that red line......

my question is, where would your initial profit target have been on that first trade.... you can see the pivots, supports, resistances, mt4lsr ..... would it have been one of those......

and also, what if any steps would have followed...... such as move to breakeven, trail at some point , take half profit and the like..... thanks......h

Shahab, I'm expecting a pullback to the 9215 area where the LTL is. From there I would assume down.

Hey guys.

Anyone had a look on CAD/JPY?
Placed some orders there yesterday and see what amazing drop we had there today. (with U/CAD straight up and U/J droping down this resulted as really huge drop for CAD/JPY :o )

These positions were actually meant to be longer term. targetting the 90-area
Didn't expect them so close to my final target after one day.
We already started to retrace quite nice as weekly S1 stopped the drop.
(with U/CAD limited by weekly R1 for now and U/J found some strong support as well)

Just hopin we don't make the whole move back up... as we did last week already.
gettin stopped out at BE would be not funny at all...
any thoughts on that one?

Regards, Tuner

SSI: EURUSD Short Interest Plunges 41% after Pair Drops below 1.3250
Tuesday, 27 Apr 2010 17:45 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.83 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 23.5% higher than yesterday and 12.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 40.5% lower than yesterday and 20.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.5% weaker than yesterday and 2.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

SSI Details:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.34 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 26.4% higher than yesterday and 12.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 24.0% lower than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.5% weaker than yesterday and 0.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.34 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.59 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 35.9% higher than yesterday and 22.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 36.1% lower than yesterday and 28.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.3% weaker than yesterday and 0.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.77 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.80 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.8% higher than yesterday and 52.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 25.6% lower than yesterday and 23.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% stronger than yesterday and 17.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.51 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.00 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 25.3% lower than yesterday and 41.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 48.2% higher than yesterday and 62.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.9% weaker than yesterday and 9.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.41 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.39 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 32.7% lower than yesterday and 19.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 31.8% higher than yesterday and 6.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.7% weaker than yesterday and 16.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 42.4% higher than yesterday and 49.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 21.8% lower than yesterday and 41.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.5% stronger than yesterday and 11.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.81 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.2% higher than yesterday and 2.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 44.6% lower than yesterday and 15.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 22.2% weaker than yesterday and 11.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Hey there hayseed,

That system looks interesting!
some questions first..to understand what the system is about...

What is "that red line" showing? thought it was something like an upper bollinger band. But it's too far away from the price for that.

If the shorts are triggered by RSI >90 and ask above that line..how are the Long trades triggered? (will the line be below the prices then?)

As you go from the H4 charts I assume the system is more "designed" from swing trades..?
If we are intraday I would look for daily s1 or s2 as targets.. but considering the weekly pivot R1/2 as well (if they are in the way).
or going looking for the ADR

Setting to BE and trailing the stop is a hard thing to do.
(I got the "talent" to end up at BE on my trades too often to answer that )
I tend to look at a close below daily pivot for that (if you entered above) assuming that we won't make it above that level again to set to BE.
in your example now we have also the weekly pivot. a close below that could also be a trigger to trail your stop again.

If the dotted line is similar to the LSR maybe you can paint that one lookin at the H1 timeframe instead of the H4? there you would see the "flip" to the upside already and could use that one as a trailing stop (with some pips distance to it)

what was the trigger to add to the trades?


congrats on "baby's first steps" by the way..


Regards,
Tuner

short Gold here, at 1168 SL=50 ,TP=250

wow, it has been quite a day, I don't remember seeing something like this, USD is getting stronger every minute against all other currencies and still gold is shooting to the sky, one of them should follow the other sooner than later, I hope it would be gold following the rest

a bit ambitious with that tp arent we? what is behind your thinking that sees gold under 950 as a realistic target?

I hear you. Inflation kicking in???

Hi M.A.C.Doug, no I meant 50 pips for my platform it means SL=1173 which is about to be taken out and TP= 1143

inflation? whatever it is, it has given me a heart attack already. I'm about to lose 4% hard earned equity

lol, silly me! would have been real cool to pull off a trade like that though

DJI, I've been waiting for this, finally

a lot of movement again at that time of the day...
Hope you can avoid that heart-attack.. we still need you
and you still need those 4% that are on the table for you...
So what is happening at the moment?
watching some Goldman-hearing at the moment on bloomberg.. but this is only blabla...

oh, it was my mistake, I should have mentioned the SL/TP in number,overall I see gold falling but the timing is difficult.

Hi Tuner, I thought all the GS story today would be negative for stocks & gold but I was wrong on gold .
I don't think if this trade can survive, it doesn't want to fall.

Ya.. the move in Gold was strange. Not correlated to USD... or even the usually highly correlated pairs like A/U.. went completely against each other.
More driven by "unsecurity"... fear of inflation or some kind of that stuff maybe?
Entered a short on Gold @ 1171.. but going to either cash it in directly or save it at BE pretty soon.

Hi there, I think the best one is a combination of ADR and weekly S/R/P.

take the number of ADR and calculate the the 2nd and 3rd quartile range (between 50%-75%) it means if ADR is 100 2nd and 3rd will be 50-75 pips, then look at the nearest weekly P/S/R on that range and set it as your fixed TP, it means if there is weekly S1 ,S2 and S3 are in 30 -60 - 90 pips distance of you initiate entry you should take the weekly S2 at 60 pips range

yea, I think you are right, I hope A/u and the rest don't follow Gold this time, I'm sick of seeing stocks falling and calling for a top and then seeing all the dip being bought and making a new high, that story is getting more and more painful as you lose the confidence on your call

oh btw, you are 30 pips richer now!!!