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  • #11,721
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:40am Apr 26, 2010 2:40am
Quoting Alexandra
Cable and my stalwart AUDJPY continue to have my ear, based on an assessment of all three time frames. What does Cable mean for the EUR? for Chunnel? We are not inclined to short either, as mentioned at the end of last week.
Let me try to answer if I understand the question!

monthly printed a nice doji last month signalling a possible change in direction.
weekly has posted some nice solid moves up but 155 zone is proving a problem so far but the rejection was not followed up and we are now going to test that resistance again this week? but we are also up against the 20ma as well.
daily has used the 20ma as support lately so no reason to short cable on that account.

EUR looks like it will survive the crisis eventually, having drawn that line in the sand at 132 last week. I wouldn't go long yet too much stuff in the way to overcome which will be choppy to say the least.

So for the time being EURGBP is going nowhere probably fairly narrow range until something happens to change the balance like a surprising UK election result.

Is this more or less what is causing your reluctance to short either of these?
  • #11,722
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:45am Apr 26, 2010 2:45am
Quoting Alexandra
Cable and my stalwart AUDJPY continue to have my ear, based on an assessment of all three time frames. What does Cable mean for the EUR? for Chunnel? We are not inclined to short either, as mentioned at the end of last week.
Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Cable has been on my radar since the hammer I had on the 19 April, it has been making HH and HL but we are still in a big downtrend, so any trade here is against the prevailing trend. Price is approaching 20 and a big descending Supply DSRI I have on the Boss so we shall see what happens there.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #11,723
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:56am Apr 26, 2010 2:56am
Quoting Grimweasel
Hi all!
Hope you have all had a good weekend? As there was some interest in the my recent post I have provided the link to the blog site where I post my weekly analysis.

I didn't want to clog this thread up weekly with the table so I have provided the hyper link below. Please don't use this as an authority; you must draw your own conclusions and produce a format that you are happy with. That way you will understand and trust your weekly analysis and will be more likely to stick with it and YOUR plan!!

There is nothing more on the blog than...
Hi Grimhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

Thanks for the link. There is no substitute for doing your own analysis every week, but I believe that comparing notes is good.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #11,724
  • Apr 26, 2010 9:02am Apr 26, 2010 9:02am
Hello everyone,
Heartened by Grim’s wonderful post on a condensed analysis I have investigated several of the pairs that seem to be back on trend this week. I was very excited about the JPN pairs until I searched out a feed that had 10 years or so data and most look very close to major resistance, so I’ve decided to give an analysis of my beloved USD/CAD even though it doesn’t really shine as a good opportunity.

Monthly Candle is a strong bear which stopped at a weekly (wobble?) resistance found in the 2008 range. Sellers are strongly in control with momentum slowing a bit from the steep 2009 decline.

Weekly Candle: is at least a bearish engulfing if not a BEOB taking out the buying attempts of the previous weeks bulls. The close is around the tails of the previous 2008 congestion area and below weekly wobble resistance.

Daily candles: have been slightly rangy after the giant (news?) candle. We have formed a double bottom with the bond doji (Wednesday) which was confirmed on Thursday then Friday’s candle printed out a Bearish engulfing off of wobble resistance and the 20.

I am inclined to wait for PA after a trip up to wobble resistance or supply dsri; failing that, I’ll be waiting for a retest of the .9970 area if it breaks through; however then we have to deal with .9870 and then big .9800.

If any trade sets up it will likely be an ATM with aggressive stop management.

As mentioned above there are better opportunities elsewhere, but I would really like everyone’s feedback to see if I am at the level to start posting constructive analysis on this wonderful thread.

As a side note:
I did not take the trade off the doji last week as it was not in agreement with the boss and in the 20/50 trap. I am not sure if that was a good decision with the doji being at the 50, dsri supply and wobble resistance but hindsite is always 20/20. I don’t feel I’m far enough down the path yet to be confident in a trade like that so I skipped it.

Thanks everyone. Cheers.

John
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Finally out of the shadows.
  • #11,725
  • Apr 26, 2010 9:36am Apr 26, 2010 9:36am
I have been stuck in Europe for the past week, so as I had taken a paper copy of various posts from this forum to read, I read and re read them.

When you do this a few times you begin to realize that you are missing the point on some charts and some posts, the words are there, the chart is there but somehow you still miss the point.

By reading and re reading them you often find that the point you initially missed is the key to what we are trying to learn on this forum.

You have to accept that this is not an easy job to master, and speed reading the posts as I have done in the past is not the answer.

When you have got the hang of what we are meant to be doing, you then have to accept that sometimes you wait a long time for the right trades to come to you.

For the new arrivals, who are trying to earn a living out of trading I wish you every success but I regret to say that if you under pressure to make money every day out of this activity, your better off making a $10,000 donation to your favourite charity now, rather than lose even more money in the market.
  • #11,726
  • Apr 26, 2010 10:22am Apr 26, 2010 10:22am
Quoting Flem26
Looks like there might be an ATM trade on Eur/Yen.
There is a bullish engulfing bar on the daily off of 123.50 support, TL, and fibo levels (February lows to recent monthly highs). Price has closed above the 20 and 50 and may be headed towards the 127.50 area again.

On the boss, it looks like a piercing pattern. But price is still below the 20 and 50. And on the big boss, we have that bullish engulfing candle from March, but price is still below the 20 and 50. See what I mean by twisted? I'm getting a headache just typing this.

I haven't taken...
mainly the perfection of bars/candle

I am hesitant to take some of these bars/candles that aren't "picture perfect", despite the fact that they correspond with a strong trend.

This is the result of “text book” learning. While we all have to learn the “text book” candles, shapes, patterns, locations etc., it is far more important to understand what these candles mean relative to the candles around them. Unfortunately, there is no short cut to this but it gets easier when you put in the prerequisite hours of reading and practicing on thousands of charts.

For each “perfect” candle/pattern, I can probably show as many “non perfect” candles/patterns that worked equally as good. Understanding what the buyers and sellers are doing and how they cause these candles/patterns/shapes where they do is much more important than learning candles “parrot fashion”.

It seems you have worked yourself up so bad that you are now “scared” to make a trade. If this is the case, you need to go back to studying and practicing on historical charts until you get your belief and confidence in PASR back.

Whatever you do, don’t lose faith in PASR, it works and works damn good but it only works as good as the person using it. Get yourself sorted out, get back into a positive frame of mind, do the practicing and start taking small “nailed on” ATM trades. Build up your confidence slowly and all will be OK.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,727
  • Apr 26, 2010 10:26am Apr 26, 2010 10:26am
Quoting simpleman
Thanks for replying negatively on my chart in post 11699. I am learning a lot from it and trying to improve my PASR understanding. Here we go with one more chart ready to be commented by you lot but negatively only.

AUDUSD:
On daily TF on Fridays close on my data feed it is showig hammer (as far as I understand) which is a bullish sign but it has come far off from its support and heading towards the resistance near 93.60 therefore just 100pips away. If I had to take this trade then the stop would be below the...
Thanks for replying negatively

Wrong choice of words and a word I don't like!

I don't want ANYTHING negative on this thread only POSITIVE and CONSTRUCTIVE words and help.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,728
  • Apr 26, 2010 10:31am Apr 26, 2010 10:31am
Quoting gaf
Hello everyone,...
I did not take the trade off the doji last week as it was not in agreement with the boss

That's ALL you need to know. Anything after that is just further confirmation NOT TO TRADE.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,729
  • Apr 26, 2010 10:32am Apr 26, 2010 10:32am
Quoting stgeorge
I have been stuck in Europe for the past week, so as I had taken a paper copy of various posts from this forum to read, I read and re read them.

When you do this a few times you begin to realize that you are missing the point on some charts and some posts, the words are there, the chart is there but somehow you still miss the point.

By reading and re reading them you often find that the point you initially missed is the key to what we are trying to learn on this forum.

You have to accept that this is not an easy job to master,...
Sounds like St. George slayed the dragon again. Good job!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,730
  • Apr 26, 2010 11:30am Apr 26, 2010 11:30am
I saw this and forgot what it was I was doing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,731
  • Apr 26, 2010 11:36am Apr 26, 2010 11:36am
Quoting strat
mainly the perfection of bars/candle ...
Thanks Strat. Will do.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,732
  • Apr 26, 2010 11:39am Apr 26, 2010 11:39am
Quoting strat
I saw this and forgot what it was I was doing
I'm pleased to say I don't know nor do I want to know what all that crap is on that chart

Larry
  • #11,733
  • Apr 26, 2010 11:44am Apr 26, 2010 11:44am
The Weekly EUR COT chart looks like 135 to 136 is where we should take notice which corresponds to 1.36ish on our charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.png Size: 40 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,734
  • Apr 26, 2010 11:52am Apr 26, 2010 11:52am
Hmm, if this HL gets confirmed, we could be looking at a HH around 110ish which could take USDJPY back for a re-test of 91.75 (which would be a good welly filling place!)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JYen.png Size: 39 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,735
  • Apr 26, 2010 11:57am Apr 26, 2010 11:57am
Friday's candle is quite a statement. Could be a test of recent highs coming.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SFranc.png Size: 42 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,736
  • Apr 26, 2010 12:08pm Apr 26, 2010 12:08pm
Looks like a stronger $US with my Mark I eyeball!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big Boss USDX.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Boss USDX.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Worker USDX.png Size: 56 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,737
  • Apr 26, 2010 12:30pm Apr 26, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting strat
I saw this and forgot what it was I was doing
OMG! What an abortion that chart is. I got temporarily blinded when I enlarged it! Certainly, it must be a joke, right?
  • #11,738
  • Apr 26, 2010 12:37pm Apr 26, 2010 12:37pm
Does anyone have a program to show arrows when buying or selling on the MT4 platform. Like the ones that come up when using a robot.
  • #11,739
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:05pm Apr 26, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting gerry berard
Does anyone have a program to show arrows when buying or selling on the MT4 platform. Like the ones that come up when using a robot.
Like the ones that come up when using a robot.

Oh Dear! Gerry we DON'T use robots or similar things like EAs on this thread. We are taught to use our eyes looking at charts to understand how price moves and trade only when we see PA at SR levels.

You will find other threads on FF which are more likely to have posters who might be able to answer your question.
  • #11,740
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:50pm Apr 26, 2010 2:50pm

Strat's Mantra:


We TRADE TO LIVE. We are NOT like others who LIVE TO TRADE.
We know that our Health is ALWAYS more important than our wealth.
We know trading is NOT a "Get Rich Quick Scheme".
We know trading is a serious business and WE treat our trading as a SERIOUS BUSINESS
We understand we have, like any other profession, to put in the thousands of hours studying, learning and practicing our methods and techniques.
We understand there is NO SHORTCUT to becoming successful and profitable traders.
We understand that successful and profitable trading is 95% psychology and 5% technical skill. We know who and what we have to control.
We need PATIENCE to wait for and "SEE" opportunities
We need DISCIPLINE to act and trade on such opportunities
We are PLANNERS – We always PLAN each and every trade and then Trade the PLAN without exception.
We are BELIEVERS. We believe in ourselves and our PLAN.
We are happy, content and satisfied with where we are in our trading career.
We believe in the Holy Grail. We know what the Holy Grail is. We have found the Holy Grail and our search for trading enlightenment is over.
We can only take what the market gives us - we do "NOT" force the market.
We respect PRICE and the Market.
We understand that PRICE is Lord, King, Queen and Country.
We ACCEPT losses as the cost of doing business
We are PROFESSIONALS and PROFESSIONALS look for a reason NOT to take a trade
We are NOT Amateurs. Amateurs manage money by taking RISK. PROFESSIONALS manage RISK by taking money.

I am a Professional Trader.
My job is to take risk.
If I manage my losses and let my profits run I will be successful.
Because I am a professional trader, I will forgive myself easily for making mistakes and move on to new opportunities.
I feel great that I have the discipline to control my emotions and the patience required to be a professional trader.
I am a professional trader and will make $1,000,000 by year end.
I will achieve this by following my trading plan, setting achievable goals, and controlling my emotions.
I am confident and believe in my own ability to be consistently profitable because I AM a professional trader.
Annoying Precision
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