DislikedThanks for the solide argument. Technically, the long term case has to be verified by breaking the 0.9387/0.9404 level. The short term case is currently drawn out of the feeling "...there must be a correction...". Everyone knows that this is not a solid argument in FOREX.Ignored
QuoteDislikedI know it from myself. Someone is easily getting tempted to project the short term situation (from indicators and charts) into the long term picture (and vice versa). That behavior will be even stimulated if someone has open positions (and in particular if they are in red). That’s the fertile ground on which wishful thinking is flourishing.
Well, there is also a solid fundamental reason to think about a bear turn. That’s the possible stop in RBA's interest rate hike cycle.
thats not really a bear scenario.. ive done research on rate divergences.. and the thing that would possibly be bearish would be usd raising rates and aussy not raising rates... this causes a convergence in the interest rate differencial and causes a flock out of the pair into another that is increasing divergence.
QuoteDislikedHowever, with the sharp dip and strong recovery yesterday, that has been proven to be the minor factor.
[color=black][font=Verdana]And here I like to come back to domino’s case. What is stopping hiking interest rate against financial tremors ala Greece & Spain and the CDO, lending & Gov. deficit swamp ala US. Holding physical assets such as raw materials & commodities is one of the best back insurances for a currency in times of troubles (in uncharted territory). I feel that is the more valid story...
