Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Before and after BOOM! lol - so much for temporary weakness



My FXPro (demo) doesn't offer USDX either but I just use Netdania.com. Don't know if you've seen this site before. You can pull up a single chart using this link

http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...Chart.aspx?m=c

or, like me, you can pull up multiple charts on one workspace, using this link

http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...rtStation.aspx

You can put a maximum of 10 charts onto one workspace and I think you can have a maximum of 20 workspaces. They do most currencies (even ones I can't trade like the Brazilian Real), gold, crude, indices, USDX and various shares. The only problem with the USDX chart is that it is delayed by about half an hour. You don't have to register either and if you use the chartstation link you can set your charts up and it saves a cookie (or whatever it is to your computer) so that the next time you visit your charts will still be there as you left them.

As for your lawnmower maybe you should get out your digital camera and take a photo of where you leave it

It seems it's going to be the time every pessimistic trader has been waiting for

"If we were to apply the United States Department of Homeland Security’s Threat Level System to the global financial markets, we would surely be in the orange sector (‘high’ risk) moving on to red (‘severe’ risk). There has been a range of fundamental uncertainties that have undermined the outlook for a stable and healthy future for growth and investment turnover; but investor sentiment (as irrational as human behavior itself) has maintained its bullish bearing thanks to the hope for higher returns and a general disregard of building risks."

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._Upcoming.html


what I think is ,in the next two three weeks we will see the last round of the bull market for this year, lets first see a gold above 1188 and after that all the way go down to 50% of the bull run since March 2009

hey shah..... quick question on re-entry's where price retouches a pivot after a sell has been opened.....

lookin at your picture below, focus only on the action within my blue box .... it contains an intial sell.... then several retouches of the pivot and several actual valid signal recrosses...... is there any sort of minimum time between orders perhaps like 1 entry per daily pivot......

and would the reentry order be a pending order......h

Hi there, I think one re-entry per day as a pending order at daily pivot with SL above LSR would work , but you need to think if the LSR crosses the Daily pivot during the day the system should get ride of that pending order as it doesn't fit into the requirement anymore.

as I've never done it automatically I consider one re-entry to my position with SL above the LSR (may be 10 pips on E/u and A/u)- in those examples both re-entries are valid and they never pass through LSR

one more point, the LSR has a ATR multiplier which really makes the difference when you play with it, for some pairs it should be adjusted accordingly ,for instance the default one is 3 but the maker of the LSR suggested 2.85- to my experience 3 is good in E/U and A/U and U/J but I didn't try it on G/u and U/Cad , if you make that ea, we can back test to see what's the best ATR multiplier for each pair

now that I'm looking at the charts ATR multiplier for U/Cad should be 3.2 instead of 3

This pessimistic trader wasnt waiting and went in boots and all to early. The market can move now that all us pessimistic but impatient traders have been sidelined by decimated accounts. I believe it is fundamental reality rather than pessimism but it cost me alot so perhaps it was just a case of seeing the glass half empty. Bulls remain very resilient despite "the realities" you mention. Dow finished up again today. Please keep us posted on this, I am happy to see this scenario mentioned and would love to see it traded, should it play out. just dont get to convinced about the timing, bulls could continue for another 12 months or more against all logic

http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/char...5_image022.gif

http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/char...5_image023.gif

No sentiment reading unfortunately. They didn't post one on Friday night. Nothing much has changed on USDX weekly. We are still ranging between 38 and 50% fibs. I am expecting it to head to 61.8% fib (83.72) at some stage. I'm just not sure of the timing. Also some reading material attached for the funnymentalists.

G'day Patience, thanx for the report ,

here is the IMM part ,extracted from L.TBS report which patience shared with us.

Contrarian Indicators
Risk Reversal Skews (based on options prices, see page 7)
and IMM data (highlighting speculative positioning, see page
6) are used to analyse foreign exchange to understand how
stretched currencies may have become.
Confirmation of the recent trend was observed in terms of
IMM positioning with regard to GBP. A 3rd successive drop in
overall shorts pulled the number of short contracts below
70,000 for the first time since February. Reported short positions
fell to 57,000. Non-reported positions dropped to -11,000.
Short EUR positions fell for a 2nd straight week, with the
overall level of short contracts now 32,000 below the level of
two weeks ago. We suspect some of that may have been
unwound following the latest episode in the Greece rescue
saga and the pullback in EUR/USD below 1.33. Positioning
against the JPY rose for a 6th successive week, with the total
amount of short contracts snowballing to a whopping -80,000.
Taking a cue from this week’s price action in USD/JPY (rally
through 94.0), there are reasons to believe that JPY shorts
now stretch even further.
There was no change in the balance of appetite for the AUD
and CAD, with both currencies attract strong demand and
long contracts vs the USD now both topping 100,000. As a
result, the spread between AUD and CAD longs vs JPY shorts
surged to 180,000, underpinning AUD/JPY above 86.0 and
CAD/JPY above 93.0. The US DXY index nudged back over
82.0 this week on EUR and JPY selling, the two biggest
constituents of the DXY. With all of April’s losses erased, the
DXY looks set to revisit the March high of 82.24. The level
above that is situated at 83.22. The FOMC meeting next
Wednesday will obviously be key to near-term direction. If
there is any change in the statement, we think it may relate to
the timing of asset sales rather than ‘extended period’ to
phrase the outlook for a low Fed funds rate.
EUR/USD risk reversals reached extreme levels (below 25%
percentile, favouring EUR puts) but also manifested itself in
NZD/USD and AUD/USD, suggesting that both AUD and
NZD long positions may be stretched. With the EUR still subject
to the ebb and flow of Greek bond yields, drawing conclusions
over stretched EUR short positions may be premature. We
reiterate our bearish EUR/USD view (1.30 MT target) and
preferred tactic of selling rallies ahead of the German regional
election in NRW on May 9. Though a relief rally in EUR crosses
emerged late on Friday, we think gains will be short-lived
until the terms and conditions of a bailout and/or debt
restructuring are clear. For GBP/USD, uncertainty surrounding
the UK election took a breather this week but will return to the
forefront of investor minds next week. UK macro data second-tier and means the final election Party leaders debate
and subsequent poll swings will take centre stage.
Short-dated implied volatility rose in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/
CHF and USD/CAD, leading to flatter 1mth/1vol curves, Shortdated
vol fell for USD/JPY, pushing the vol spread back above
2.50.

With Greece aid looming large, when the transaction does happen (If it happens), the IMF part of the loan will actually be a transaction of converting US$ into the EURO, which as it currently stands will be 15 billion.

I am not sure how this transaction happens but if its actually a physical transaction, we might see a massive spike in EURUSD as its a 15 yard which can move the markets by some 500-600 pips...

If you cant beat them join them

Silver

E/U

G/J

E/G

Written by Danske Bank Apr 26 10
IMM Positioning

Speculative investors added to EUR shorts last week as Greek sovereign spreads reached new highs and EUR/USD tested 1.32 - the lowest level in a year. However, Friday's EUR rebound, seeing EUR/USD jump higher to test 1.34, indicates that the pair is still quite vulnerable to short squeezes. While Friday is likely to have seen EUR shorts being unwound we suspect that significant short positions are still in place in the market - leaving upside risk to EUR/USD should the market be forced to exit current EUR shorts.
Overall positioning remains broadly unchanged: speculative investors are still long the USD-currencies against the EUR-currencies, with AUD, NZD, CAD remaining the favourite longs.
Short JPY positions were scaled back slightly. However, as USD/JPY have corrected higher again - to trade above 94 - the market is likely to have seen a further build-up in shorts. This week's FOMC meeting will be important to follow, as a potential change in wording to the 'extended period' phrase should see USD/JPY move higher, while a moredovish- than-expected Fed could see an accelerated move lower from JPY shorts being unwound.

G/U

borrowing from shah's post above , the 'extended period' phrase might apply to the nzdusd..... appears to be approaching a potiential parabolic state, if it don't take a breather that is.... which is usually within 200 pips of touching the red line in second picture below....


//-----
//-----
just a note and not to be used as trading advice, patience meter just took her very first trade.....

now correct me if i'm wrong but seem to remember a baby's first step was often followed by ,

1. 'aahh she's so cute',

2. a big splat,

3. a whole bunch of crying



yeah your right, that ain't funny....

but still, we all must take those first steps.......h

E/U
keep an eye on 4H candle , it's bullish