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  • #11,701
  • Apr 24, 2010 5:54am Apr 24, 2010 5:54am
Quoting Jideck
Ola Trad3rhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif

Welcome to Strats thread and I hope you will find answers to your trading questions here.

I have no idea whether you have read the information contained in this thread as yet or not, if you are posting without previously reading the material, you are for a rude awakening - we study opportunities in PASR, your chart and explanation shows no such opportunity just a "posssibility" of a...
Hi, I confess I have only read the decalogue mantra and the SR and swing Hs & Ls that the first post links and I thought that this thread treats about identification of SR in long term , I'm seeing that you use PA in long term? I thinked that Price Action was only useful in short term, It seems I have to learn a lot more about PA, I will try to learn reading some posts of this thread and I will have a look to the PA thread, maybe it helps me also to improve my bad english hehe, sorry for my intrusion. I have deleted my post, I will return when I learn more, see you.
  • #11,702
  • Apr 24, 2010 7:09am Apr 24, 2010 7:09am
Quoting strat
Big Boss:
MA's crossed down, PA below 20, bounced off 78.6 of UP move 11/2007-3/2009 = R level at 1.0223 ish, also off a LH of 1/2010 = 61.8 of prior move up...
Strat, thanks.

With so much info. on the charts, the hardest part seems to be to find what is relevant to decision making.

Grimweasel's subsequent post of his Trend analysis table (post 11655, p777) has also helped tremendously with SEEING WHAT IS IMPORTANT...

Thank you Grim, for sharing that valuable insight.

Back to lurking and learning,
Daryl
  • #11,703
  • Edited 8:45am Apr 24, 2010 8:18am | Edited 8:45am
Though I have been demoing with this and reading and analysing charts for a long time, and thought I was getting along, as a test I decided to write down all SR levels for a couple of pairs then reset my levels from scratch and only around 30% of them ended up the same. Though that has given me more faith in the 30% that were true both times, I can no longer have any faith in my SR levels and since they are crucial for this system extrapolating from there I can no longer have faith in any decisions I make.

I have been over and over the SR determination post by Blackeagle but it is still not helping me be consistent. Without faith in the levels I am lost.

I wish there was some kind of mentoring system were we could get more help with this, as without correct SR levels we have nothing.

To illustrate, I have attached Blackeagles NU monthly chart and mine. How to judge which levels are more imprtant than others? There are numerous places where price has reversed more than once at that level. How to know which are important and which aren't? And to complicate further, if I try to fine-tune on the weekly it gets so messy - some points in time a little higher, some a little lower, I end up with a million lines. I know I just need to do this once to get started but I end up doing it once, deleting, again, deleting, to the point where I trust them zero and have just hit a wall.

A lot lost,

FE
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,704
  • Apr 24, 2010 8:58am Apr 24, 2010 8:58am
As one of the most commonly traded pairs, I have attached my monthly EU line and bar chart (pre weekly lines added) and would appreciate any feedback on whether this is way off track or not.

Thanks in advance,

FE

http://i39.tinypic.com/e7i3wi.gif

http://i44.tinypic.com/5xv5sn.gif
  • #11,705
  • Apr 24, 2010 11:08am Apr 24, 2010 11:08am
Quoting Trad3r
Hi, I confess I have only read the decalogue mantra and the SR and swing Hs & Ls that the first post links and I thought that this thread treats about identification of SR in long term , I'm seeing that you use PA in long term? I thinked that Price Action was only useful in short term, It seems I have to learn a lot more about PA, I will try to learn reading some posts of this thread and I will have a look to the PA thread, maybe it helps me also to improve my bad english hehe, sorry for my intrusion. I have deleted my post, I will return...
I'm seeing that you use PA in long term? I thinked that Price Action was only useful in short term,

Price Action on short time frames is like using bow and arrows against WMDs on long time frames.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,706
  • Apr 24, 2010 11:10am Apr 24, 2010 11:10am
Quoting djr
Strat, thanks.

With so much info. on the charts, the hardest part seems to be to find what is relevant to decision making.

Grimweasel's subsequent post of his Trend analysis table (post 11655, p777) has also helped tremendously with SEEING WHAT IS IMPORTANT...

Thank you Grim, for sharing that valuable insight.

Back to lurking and learning,
Daryl
the hardest part seems to be to find what is relevant to decision making.

Try Price Action at Support and Resistance
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,707
  • Apr 24, 2010 11:14am Apr 24, 2010 11:14am
Quoting forexample
Though I have been demoing with this and reading and analysing charts for a long time, and thought I was getting along, as a test I decided to write down all SR levels for a couple of pairs then reset my levels from scratch and only around 30% of them ended up the same. Though that has given me more faith in the 30% that were true both times, I can no longer have any faith in my SR levels and since they are crucial for this system extrapolating from there I can no longer have faith in any decisions I make.

I have been over and over the SR determination...
First thing, forget about trading. Go do something else to take your mind off this. You have wound yourself up so tight you are like a rubber band propelling a toy airplane.

Then, when you are fresh and relaxed, take a majors Worker chart and identify the major and minor turning points. Then change it to Boss and see where those turning points are on the Boss chart. Keep doing this and eventually the light bulb will come on.

Then when you can do that, identify SR on the Boss and change it down to Worker.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,708
  • Apr 24, 2010 4:48pm Apr 24, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting strat
I'm seeing that you use PA in long term? I thinked that Price Action was only useful in short term,

Price Action on short time frames is like using bow and arrows against WMDs on long time frames.

Don't tell it to me, but to the followers of this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=217281 it seems they do well and get profitable. Anyway I've never considered PA important on forex for a simple question: there are no volume information in forex, you can't analyze properly the movements of the price without volume information, the MT4 volume is not the real volume, the volume of the COT reports is not the real volume, you have no way to get the real volume so PA is not useful for me, but this is my opinion.
  • #11,709
  • Apr 24, 2010 7:21pm Apr 24, 2010 7:21pm
Quoting Trad3r
Don't tell it to me, but to the followers of this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=217281 it seems they do well and get profitable. Anyway I've never considered PA important on forex for a simple question: there are no volume information in forex, you can't analyze properly the movements of the price without volume information, the MT4 volume is not the real volume, the volume of the COT reports is not the real volume, you have no way to get the real volume so PA is not useful for me, but this is my opinion.
Let me get this straight. So in the below chart, selling any of those wonderful shooting stars @ the trend line wouldn't have been an interest to you? Hang out Strat will gladly put you on the right path. Cheers,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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T
  • #11,710
  • Apr 24, 2010 8:04pm Apr 24, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting strat
First thing, forget about trading. Go do something else to take your mind off this. You have wound yourself up so tight you are like a rubber band propelling a toy airplane.

Then, when you are fresh and relaxed, take a majors Worker chart and identify the major and minor turning points. Then change it to Boss and see where those turning points are on the Boss chart. Keep doing this and eventually the light bulb will come on.

Then when you can do that, identify SR on the Boss and change it down to Worker.
Roger. I have the SR line drawing equivalent of writer's block. Will take your advice and come back to it with a fresh mind. There is no rush here.

Regards,

FE
  • #11,711
  • Apr 25, 2010 12:25am Apr 25, 2010 12:25am
Quoting Trad3r
Don't tell it to me, but to the followers of this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=217281 it seems they do well and get profitable. Anyway I've never considered PA important on forex for a simple question: there are no volume information in forex, you can't analyze properly the movements of the price without volume information, the MT4 volume is not the real volume, the volume of the COT reports is not the real volume, you have no way to get the real volume so PA is not useful for me, but this is my opinion.
Price action is valid in all timeframes. I have found the larger (4hr+) to be more reliable.
  • #11,712
  • Apr 25, 2010 12:27am Apr 25, 2010 12:27am
Quoting Trad3r
Don't tell it to me, but to the followers of this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=217281 it seems they do well and get profitable. Anyway I've never considered PA important on forex for a simple question: there are no volume information in forex, you can't analyze properly the movements of the price without volume information, the MT4 volume is not the real volume, the volume of the COT reports is not the real volume, you have no way to get the real volume so PA is not useful for me, but this is my opinion.


Hi Trad3rhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif

By reading your responses I gather that you are not taking in what it was suggested to you earlier. I will try to learn reading some posts of this thread - just as you say in your first response, go and start from the first post and learn. If you are on the search for some trading which produces results like you have mentioned you need to stick to it then.

Be honest with yourself and decide whether you want to learn all this information contained in this thread or not. If yes then stay here and you will become a better trader, otherwise your posts have no purpose other than to disrupt the learning here.

Happy trading
Jideck
  • #11,713
  • Apr 25, 2010 3:03am Apr 25, 2010 3:03am
I've been going in and out this week, busy with work and plumbing.
Yet I have noticed that I was reprimanded for my last post. This one is to apologize to Strat, Alexandra and any one else who may have found it out of place. Sorry. NO bad/hidden agendas here.

It would really be ungrateful not to do so fully, taking into account that my trading life changed radically since finding this thread. I haven't looked back since, managing to make an average of 0.5% profit weekly under its inspiration. That was quite a few months ago.

Since then I have created my MM plan, increased the size of the account slowly and learnt to (almost) be relaxed in my trades. Maybe I have not mastered the PASR principles completely, yet on the way.

If allowed, I will only post relevant charts and PASR thought.

Thanks
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #11,714
  • Apr 25, 2010 8:51am Apr 25, 2010 8:51am
Thanks for replying negatively on my chart in post 11699. I am learning a lot from it and trying to improve my PASR understanding. Here we go with one more chart ready to be commented by you lot but negatively only.

AUDUSD:
On daily TF on Fridays close on my data feed it is showig hammer (as far as I understand) which is a bullish sign but it has come far off from its support and heading towards the resistance near 93.60 therefore just 100pips away. If I had to take this trade then the stop would be below the low of hammer at 91.60 and the target would be PA near 93.60.
RR is just 1:1

Weekly is also showing signs of bullish move.

Also watching EURUSD & EURAUD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,715
  • Apr 25, 2010 9:11am Apr 25, 2010 9:11am
Quoting Trad3r
Don't tell it to me, but to the followers of this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=217281 it seems they do well and get profitable. Anyway I've never considered PA important on forex for a simple question: there are no volume information in forex, you can't analyze properly the movements of the price without volume information, the MT4 volume is not the real volume, the volume of the COT reports is not the real volume, you have no way to get the real volume so PA is not useful for me, but this is my opinion.
No problem - we need liquidity - just send me the money in your trading account so that I can save you the stress and frustration of losing it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,716
  • Apr 25, 2010 11:02am Apr 25, 2010 11:02am
Quoting Spinner
I've been going in and out this week, busy with work and plumbing.
Yet I have noticed that I was reprimanded for my last post. This one is to apologize to Strat, Alexandra and any one else who may have found it out of place. Sorry. NO bad/hidden agendas here.

It would really be ungrateful not to do so fully, taking into account that my trading life changed radically since finding this thread. I haven't looked back since, managing to make an average of 0.5% profit weekly under its inspiration. That was quite a few months ago.

Since then I have...
Spinning and plumbing - that's an odd combination.

No problem, Spinner, you're always allowed, just didn't want the thread turning into a social networking site.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,717
  • Apr 25, 2010 11:48am Apr 25, 2010 11:48am
Hi all!
Hope you have all had a good weekend? As there was some interest in the my recent post I have provided the link to the blog site where I post my weekly analysis.

I didn't want to clog this thread up weekly with the table so I have provided the hyper link below. Please don't use this as an authority; you must draw your own conclusions and produce a format that you are happy with. That way you will understand and trust your weekly analysis and will be more likely to stick with it and YOUR plan!!

There is nothing more on the blog than the weekly analysis and a few price action charts as they interest me. As long as Strat is happy with me posting this link, otherwise I will remove it. The main reason I do this every Sunday is to satisfy my trading plan and get into a routine of doing so; the more trading becomes routine the less likely one is to deviate from the plan!! - Good trading to all!

http://grimweasel.blogspot.com/
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #11,718
  • Apr 25, 2010 1:41pm Apr 25, 2010 1:41pm
NZDCHF Breakout?

Looks good, lets see if it holds-
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  • #11,719
  • Apr 25, 2010 2:08pm Apr 25, 2010 2:08pm
Looks like there might be an ATM trade on Eur/Yen.
There is a bullish engulfing bar on the daily off of 123.50 support, TL, and fibo levels (February lows to recent monthly highs). Price has closed above the 20 and 50 and may be headed towards the 127.50 area again.

On the boss, it looks like a piercing pattern. But price is still below the 20 and 50. And on the big boss, we have that bullish engulfing candle from March, but price is still below the 20 and 50. See what I mean by twisted? I'm getting a headache just typing this.

I haven't taken a single trade all year (talk about patience). I can't seem to find anything that lines up on all three time frames except for those crazy exotic pairs (Eur/Cad, Eur/Aud, etc.). Plus, some of the things I have picked up from the J16 thread (mainly the perfection of bars/candle) seems to conflict with the things I have learned from this thread.

I have an idea of what the problem may be. I have made the mistake in the past of taking half-a#* bars/candles that were clearly against the trend. I am hesitant to take some of these bars/candles that aren't "picture perfect", despite the fact that they correspond with a strong trend. Does anyone understand where I am coming from or am I just rambling?

For example, the hammer that formed on Eur/Jpy on April 8th I believe. I wanted to take that trade, but all that selling two days prior just spooked me. I told myself "just stay away because that hammer is smaller than the previous candle". And "you'll get filled and then it will come crashing down". Well, look how that turned out. I hope this doesn't turn into a double post. I apologize in advance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #11,720
  • Apr 25, 2010 9:46pm Apr 25, 2010 9:46pm
Cable and my stalwart AUDJPY continue to have my ear, based on an assessment of all three time frames. What does Cable mean for the EUR? for Chunnel? We are not inclined to short either, as mentioned at the end of last week.
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