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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,341
  • Apr 23, 2010 10:27am Apr 23, 2010 10:27am
Quoting wuming79
I caught the trend in 1hr too but off the doji. I was looking at the next hour when it suddenly drop like a stone and created the bullish engulfing. I just jumped in. I jumped in because in 4 hr, it's really just a down trend.

This whole month, just riding the downtrend makes a lot of pips. I only started paper trading since Feb. April is ridiculously profitable. but......there is a very big concern now.

looking back at my trades, most of them are profitable because I ride the trend. How do we tell when the trend is really reversing and going...
wuming:

I thought I answered this but my inserted answers were cut off...

If we all knew when a trend was reversing we would all be gazillionaires....

For me it's, simply letting the chart tell me when the trend has changed. If I am long or short and get stopped out then that might be the first clue. If the two lower moving averages cross, then there is another clue. If those then cross the 89..or all the moving averages start to converge...the list goes on. You have to let the chart tell you. You can only pick a point in time when the trend changes....after the fact.

I think trendlines are the best indicator for that along with what the longer timeframe is telling you. If you want me to throw a wrench in all of this....here it is...don't read it if you want to enjoy your weekend...I'll try to hide it in some ambiguous text characters...$##$#@%thetrend##@(*%willalways##$@$@changefirst@*^*#onthe#*^lower%(&&#timframe#@%)@thenwhat*#^$youare#$^#&&*(^#currentlywatching#&$%#*%...ok i warned you
  • #22,342
  • Edited 2:06am Apr 24, 2010 2:06am | Edited 2:06am
Oh, I thought you were talking about another thing :-)

I was looking at the 1 hour when the 2 tails appeared. I was then wondering if I could risk a little to ride the countertrend to the 4hr 8MA or 21MA as target as the price is stretched quite far away from the 4hr 8MA. I missed it.

Now 1hr has 8MA crossed over 21MA. 4hr downtrend line is broken. Looks like the trend has changed. MACD in 4hr needs 69 pips to turn it red. That's going to be a big red candle or a few candles that doesn't go up much on next Monday. But 4hr 89MA is still far.

I'm not sure if my analysis is correct. Just hope I am on the right track. I'm not sure if we can call the 4hr MACD as a RB but the momentum looks strong on the upside. If 1hr price pull back to 21MA with bullish TC signal, could this be a chance to do trend following up strategy with 4hr 89MA as target?

Stop loss probably take previous low around 21MA.

http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/6536/eurusd4hr.gif

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/1430/eurusd1hr.gif

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  • #22,343
  • Apr 24, 2010 6:34am Apr 24, 2010 6:34am
wuming:

Sounds good to me. On my 4hr chart I have a tail on the 4hr that hit the 38.2 Fib # like a brick wall. Price is right at the 21 and hitting a downtrend line. On your 4hr chart, draw those green rectangle support/resistance areas further to the right or 'out into the future' to use as reference point for further price action

EVERYONE:

There is A LOT of economic news coming out next week. This means VOLATILITY will be VERY HIGH for any US$ pair.

This is where 'no rules' apply and for whatever method you follow you can pretty much count on it not to work per those rules.
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  • #22,344
  • Apr 24, 2010 7:09am Apr 24, 2010 7:09am
Hello All.
I'm new member, but I'm trading with MACD 4H since January.
I hope good days and good trades for U.

khashYaR
  • #22,345
  • Apr 24, 2010 4:52pm Apr 24, 2010 4:52pm
Hi Palmer,

I see your MACD is 10,22,1. Is that a better another set of MACD settings for trading EURUSD?
  • #22,346
  • Apr 24, 2010 6:54pm Apr 24, 2010 6:54pm
Quoting wuming79
Hi Palmer,

I see your MACD is 10,22,1. Is that a better another set of MACD settings for trading EURUSD?
If you use large number, you get more reliable result with more delay.
Almost the same for all indicators.
  • #22,347
  • Apr 24, 2010 11:50pm Apr 24, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting baco75
Took the same trade Ira, yesterday, but I placed my stoploss 30 pips above the 1.3500 level and I eventually gained 70 pips. For my experience, I prefer to enter with a smaller lot, but place my stoploss 30 pips above a round figure. Very often even if there is a strong resistance at 1.3500, for instance, you get candles with tails up to 1.3520/ 1.3523 before the resistance comes into play. I got caught up in that too many times. I hate to see that my entry was right but my stoploss got hit by a couple of pips.
Same when I see a take profit at a...

Well done and thanks for the tip!!!
  • #22,348
  • Apr 25, 2010 12:06am Apr 25, 2010 12:06am
Quoting khashaYaR
Hello All.
I'm new member, but I'm trading with MACD 4H since January.
I hope good days and good trades for U.

khashYaR
Welcome to the thread khashYaR!
  • #22,349
  • Edited 1:50am Apr 26, 2010 1:27am | Edited 1:50am
Hi again. I am back. Missed a signal on last Friday on the EURJPY as I was on vacation. Today, I just took another trade. Please give your comments.

Short entry at 125.62 for EURJPY as MACD showed signal for short position (Round Top). S/l set at 125.97, the opening price of previous candlestick. T/p is at 125.37 (38.2 Fibo line). R:R ratio was more than 1. Shooting star and white candle gave the confidence.


Sorry for the smaller sized picture but I have hit my attachment limit.
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  • #22,350
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:27am Apr 26, 2010 2:27am
Hello guys
I was concentrating in Philip Nell's market rythm this weekend.
I believe the trend direction is downward yet, and it's direction hasn't change.
I'm waiting for a new low in about 1.3050 ( Monthly 89 SMA ).
Thank U for your ideas post me.
(sorry for my bad English)
  • #22,351
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:42pm Apr 26, 2010 2:42pm
Unless something changes soon, I'm going long on Eur/usd. Right now I'm just waiting for a better entry price around 1.3387. Will post pictures later, have to make dinner and do the dishes.
Raymond
  • #22,352
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:22pm Apr 26, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting Morelands
Unless something changes soon, I'm going long on Eur/usd. Right now I'm just waiting for a better entry price around 1.3387. Will post pictures later, have to make dinner and do the dishes.
Raymond
Going long EU is a good idea. I went long EU but my timing wasn't great. Still, I got some pips. I will wait for your pictures to see if your reasons are the same as mine. I have closed and am waiting for the retrace and a better entry too.
  • #22,353
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:49pm Apr 26, 2010 4:49pm
Price came to 125.03 where it bounced off the 21EMA. Closed the trade at 125.58 as a hammer was forming. I was too greedy when setting the t/p at 50% fibo line instead of the 21EMA. Gain = +4 pips

Was I also wrong in reading the initial MACD signal?
  • #22,354
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:02pm Apr 26, 2010 5:02pm
How do you people keep track of more than one pair at one time? I am having a hard time keeping track of one pair as it is already. But then I am still new to forex, having learnt about it only in early March this year. So far still reading the books recommended by Palmer, especially the one by Alexander Elder. Oh, and so far I am only doing demo trading. From the MT4, seems like i can only close trade. How do you people take half profits and let the trade carry on?

xeneric: From my chart, the MACD bounced off 0 level and seemed to give a TC signal. But the 89SMA is above, which means it should be a downtrend. Am I right or I am still missing something?
  • #22,355
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:37pm Apr 26, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting AlwaysLearn

xeneric: From my chart, the MACD bounced off 0 level and seemed to give a TC signal. But the 89SMA is above, which means it should be a downtrend. Am I right or I am still missing something?
No, we are in an uptrend because the DAILY chart is in an uptrend. Why is yours closing below the 89 ? Mine has it closing above the 89 (blue) on the 4 hr.
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  • #22,356
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:39pm Apr 26, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting AlwaysLearn
Price came to 125.03 where it bounced off the 21EMA. Closed the trade at 125.58 as a hammer was forming. I was too greedy when setting the t/p at 50% fibo line instead of the 21EMA. Gain = +4 pips

Was I also wrong in reading the initial MACD signal?
If you trade against the trend, you can't be too greedy. You need to get what you can as quickly as you can.
  • #22,357
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:44pm Apr 26, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting AlwaysLearn
From the MT4, seems like i can only close trade. How do you people take half profits and let the trade carry on?
You can take half profits on MT4 easily. When you go to close order just change the volume to whatever you want to close and the remainder will stay open.
  • #22,358
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:46pm Apr 26, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting xeneric
No, we are in an uptrend because the DAILY chart is in an uptrend. Why is yours closing below the 89 ? Mine has it closing above the 89 (blue) on the 4 hr.

hi xeneric

seems like a triangle forming maybe?
anw, just curious, why is the euro seem to be doing things independently yday? seems to be different from pound. is it cos of the british elections + lack of news ydaY?
  • #22,359
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:55pm Apr 26, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting AlwaysLearn
xeneric: From my chart, the MACD bounced off 0 level and seemed to give a TC signal. But the 89SMA is above, which means it should be a downtrend. Am I right or I am still missing something?
If you are talking about the EU then according to the rules it is still in a downtrend. However some of us think that the trend is changing. It is a high risk trade because until the uptrend is established we are trading countertrend. See Phil's weekly anticipation for explanation of trend change.
  • #22,360
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:56pm Apr 26, 2010 5:56pm
I haven't put in the trade in yet, but I'm probably going to. The 1st chart is the daily. Price is in a consolidation period and has found support off of the 76% retracement level (the fib is from the signif down move from July '08 to Oct '08, also note the hammer type candle. The next chart is the 4hr chart. Prices have made a higher high with price having found support off a some fibs (the larger move down 1st -5th wave and the 5th wave itself). Per Phillip's rules on the 4 hr, I'm going to look for price to return to the 21 MA before moving up to the 89MA The 21 MA sits currently at 1.3358. I will look for it to make a higher high on the 5 min or 15 min based on the 4 hr method. Basically, it means I'm going to lose some sleep
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