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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #61,701
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:17pm Apr 23, 2010 3:17pm
Thanks for the quick response Mike. This month has been a real eye opener with me for being super picky. Probably my best month trading ever and with no stress at all.

One more question, sorry to be a bother. But can you just clarify what you mean for "friday bar like this". I understand Froday is a notorius TP day. especially if at end of month but I thought maybe this would discoutn the validity of the bar not strenthen it. But I guess it can go either way.

Thanks again

Quoting mbqb11
Hey D

What I would do if I wasn't comfortable with the IBFX close is wait and see what the next close looks like(fxpro), and in that case it would be a go for sure on the fxpro, IBFX is good enough for a friday bar like this, but I would wait for fxpro just for the extra confirmation

Mike
  • #61,702
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:19pm Apr 23, 2010 3:19pm
Quoting dmc
Thanks for the quick response Mike. This month has been a real eye opener with me for being super picky. Probably my best month trading ever and with no stress at all.

One more question, sorry to be a bother. But can you just clarify what you mean for "friday bar like this". I understand Froday is a notorius TP day. especially if at end of month but I thought maybe this would discoutn the validity of the bar not strenthen it. But I guess it can go either way.

Thanks again
Hey D

It would strengthen the bar for me on a friday b/c the trend is up and since people tend to take profit you mix that in with a strong setup and then the longs start to cover further propelling your trade. It isn't a hard and fast rule of course like everything else.

Glad to hear about your success keep at it

Mike
  • #61,703
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:35pm Apr 23, 2010 3:35pm
Quoting mbqb11
Love this Jason, simple and effective
Thanks Mike, I appreciate your quick reply.

One more question about AUD/CAD, do you think this is a good PB (it's going to be closed in 30 minute for FXPro)? Because the down trend, even if it closed as a PB, are you going to take it?

Jason
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  • #61,704
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:43pm Apr 23, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting 2010
Thanks Mike, I appreciate your quick reply.

One more question about AUD/CAD, do you think this is a good PB (it's going to be closed in 30 minute for FXPro)? Because the down trend, even if it closed as a PB, are you going to take it?

Jason
Hey J

Here was my view on the aud/cad

aud/cad - again only if holds would be a pin into a ton of traffic, so it could literally bounce every time. So it would be a trade that needs to be watched very closely and if that left eye type area can't hold it may keep going down. Really tough environment to trade into unless you baby sit it.
  • #61,705
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:54pm Apr 23, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting mbqb11
Here was my view on the aud/cad

aud/cad - again only if holds would be a pin into a ton of traffic, so it could literally bounce every time. So it would be a trade that needs to be watched very closely and if that left eye type area can't hold it may keep going down. Really tough environment to trade into unless you baby sit it.
Thanks Mike. I like your point of view. I remember that you describes the one of good PB likes a cherry hanging over the tree in your video. This one is not a "cherry".
The location is the most important criteria for trading a PB.

Have a nice weekend!

Jason
  • #61,706
  • Apr 23, 2010 4:48pm Apr 23, 2010 4:48pm
nice mike.

been awol for a few weeks but about to get plugged back in.

jim

Quoting mbqb11
does it honestly get any better then this? Just wish my brokers offered this pair
  • #61,707
  • Apr 23, 2010 5:01pm Apr 23, 2010 5:01pm
Makes perfect sense. Thanks

Have a good weekend. Lets get 2 out of 3 in LA. Vasquez on Sunday, not so much. ahahah


Quoting mbqb11
Hey D

It would strengthen the bar for me on a friday b/c the trend is up and since people tend to take profit you mix that in with a strong setup and then the longs start to cover further propelling your trade. It isn't a hard and fast rule of course like everything else.

Glad to hear about your success keep at it

Mike
  • #61,708
  • Apr 23, 2010 5:38pm Apr 23, 2010 5:38pm
g knows j.

lol.

thanks for your help my friend.

jim

Quoting ghous
Hi there,

The dominant trend will always matter.

What James means by that post of his is that a BEOVB is normally a good continuation bar when the trend is down and a good reversal bar at a swing high if the trend is up. Conversely a BUOVB is normally a good continuation bar when the major trend is up and a good reversal bar when at a swing low of a downtrend.

here are a few examples.

g.
  • #61,709
  • Apr 23, 2010 7:09pm Apr 23, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting james16
nice mike.

been awol for a few weeks but about to get plugged back in.

jim
Jim! Missed you! (no homo)
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,710
  • Apr 23, 2010 10:45pm Apr 23, 2010 10:45pm
Thanks Mike for the review! I'm learning something new from every post here, which is great. Ghous' post for example, made me realize how to play BEOVB and BUOVB accordingly for continuation / reversal.

Just a quick one, how do I determine that a trend is 'dominant' or 'strong'? Is it by angle or by length over time? Or can it be as simple as watching the screen from left to right? Even then, the zooming level can make a difference as I can have a downtrend on zoom 1, a range on zoom 2, and an uptrend on zoom 3. I always have difficulty in determining which zoom is the best for spotting the dominant trend.
  • #61,711
  • Edited 3:23am Apr 24, 2010 12:29am | Edited 3:23am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Andreas

This is a key key area....
I really appreciate you sharing your experience. Thank you very much!
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #61,712
  • Apr 24, 2010 12:40am Apr 24, 2010 12:40am
Quoting fxeturn
Thanks Mike for the review! I'm learning something new from every post here, which is great. Ghous' post for example, made me realize how to play BEOVB and BUOVB accordingly for continuation / reversal.

Just a quick one, how do I determine that a trend is 'dominant' or 'strong'? Is it by angle or by length over time? Or can it be as simple as watching the screen from left to right? Even then, the zooming level can make a difference as I can have a downtrend on zoom 1, a range on zoom 2, and an uptrend on zoom 3. I always have difficulty in determining...
Determining a "dominant trend" was a real brain buster for me when I first started to learn how to trade. But luckily for me, I heard a genius say that trend is determined by "higher highs, and higher lows - OR - lower highs, and lower lows"


and with that, my dilemma was solved. (serious)
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,713
  • Apr 24, 2010 1:46am Apr 24, 2010 1:46am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Steve

Our entry would be on the BEOB at the top that closed below the round number. This is an extremely high probability trade, This trade has run well of by now, what it does at this point is not really of concern . I think you are misunderstanding the entry of this trade.

Hope that clear is up
Mike
Hi Mike,

Yes, that and your other related posts clear it up for me. I can't thank you enough for taking the time to clue me in, as I now completely understand and have to agree that AUDCHF presented a beautiful opportunity. In fact, I will look for such trades in the future.

I had run across a mention of PA a few weeks ago, but only began reading about it in detail in the last couple of days. I have been looking for a way to improve my choice of entry for a while now, as that is the single biggest deficiency in my trading to date. I believe PA is what I have been looking for, and it is a good fit with my trading philosophy and style.

Your comments about the fxpro and IBFX feeds also helps answer (I believe) another issue I was pondering (alternative ways to group and plot the data and perhaps thereby see things a little differently).

Thanks!
Steve0001
  • #61,714
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:20am Apr 24, 2010 3:20am
Quote
Determining a "dominant trend" was a real brain buster for me when I first started to learn how to trade.
Same goes for me. My similar "unpretentious" enlightenment happened after reading Jacko's take on it:

how do you know what the trend is?

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL

The trend is the BEST friend you will ever have in the Forex market.

It really boils down to the TF you trade and the number of bars you take into account. The smaller the TF and the number of bars you're watching and determining your trend on, the more fragile your success in terms of trend trading will be. That said even the trend on a monthly chart can break you neck if you trade it at the wrong time and place (e.g. turning point, major retraces). But it will happen less often than say on a 1h chart.
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #61,715
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:26am Apr 24, 2010 3:26am
Quoting jarroo
Looks like that PB hit the 82.00 nicely, although a bit of a retrace (50%) after the break.
Yeah took a 1% position on the break and another 1% on the retrace, although I was expecting it to reach 81 and left it, went to work now it's re traced and going against me, cant do anything cause my brokers closed,
Also am short the Euro, at 1.33 and nows it bounced hope it doesnt gap up past my stop ouch...
something is wrong with my head every time I start to get ahead I do something stupid and go right back to my starting point.
I have a $200 account I have been up to $800, $600 and multiple $500 and every time I end straight back where I started.
When I get knocked back I wake up and start being conservative and looking after my money and slowly make my way back up, I am no great trader but money management is a wonderful thing.
Learning heaps here love PB's so easy to trade.
Sorry gotta go smack myself upside the head.
  • #61,716
  • Apr 24, 2010 4:17am Apr 24, 2010 4:17am
Quoting 2010
Thanks Mike, I appreciate your quick reply.

One more question about AUD/CAD, do you think this is a good PB (it's going to be closed in 30 minute for FXPro)? Because the down trend, even if it closed as a PB, are you going to take it?

Jason
Hi Jason

Imo this setup have a better potential on lower timeframe. Zoom it to H1/H4 and you'll see very good shaped spike with good support base at 0.9240-50.
I bet buy stop orders are stacking over the 0.9280 resistance ;]. I would play the break with very tight stop in case of this scenario.

Cheers
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  • #61,717
  • Apr 24, 2010 4:51am Apr 24, 2010 4:51am
Hi James & Co,
I think I do not need to emphasize how much your work has helped small traders (like me). Hundreds of others have it already done, so don’t feel bad If I simply reconfirm their statements.
While following some comments here on the AUD/CAD and screening the charts an interesting setup in the daily AUD/USD has caught my attention.
That could have a high probability.

Best regards
Seismo
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There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
  • #61,718
  • Apr 24, 2010 5:04am Apr 24, 2010 5:04am

While following some comments here on the AUD/CAD and screening the charts an interesting setup in the daily AUD/USD has caught my attention.
That could have a high probability.

Best regards
Seismo[/quote]

Here's Mike's analysis if you didn't see his previous post>>>>
aud/cad - again only if holds would be a pin into a ton of traffic, so it could literally bounce every time. So it would be a trade that needs to be watched very closely and if that left eye type area can't hold it may keep going down. Really tough environment to trade into unless you baby sit it.
  • #61,719
  • Apr 24, 2010 5:23am Apr 24, 2010 5:23am
Quoting Atc
Thanks Jarroo
Quoting nasir.khan
Looks good for a reversal IPB.
.
You spoke to soon nasir. lol

Quoting ghous
I like these only deep into pull backs and at swing highs and lows.

A further deterring factor for me would be the large BEB and BUB just before the 2 IPBs you referred to.

Not untradabale but definitely far too risky...

g.
When I mentioned in my post "Not an A+ IPB." I thought you would reply ghous . . . "Then why would you take it?" Which is probably at the heart of this thread.

As ghous pointed out, when IPBs (or any other PA setups for that matter) don't meet all the strict criteria of an A+ setup then they are risky trades. So-so setups are tradable, but for me they require very tight management (moving to B/E quickly, free trade, etc) and strict confirmations ( hard breaks, retesting breaks, etc.).


The Gbp/Chf 4 hour IPB was not the best setup as ghous had mentioned. Also if the nose was longer would have helped it more.

It did give up some pips, about 30 pips. So a tight management approach would have produced a profit or at the worst a break even or net zero trade.

Obviously A+ trades are so much easier to manage, I thought it would fun to show some different trade management strategies. I get many PMs about trade management so I thought I would answer some of those questions here. And did I mention that if would be fun. ( I got to get out more myself ghous).


Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #61,720
  • Apr 24, 2010 5:33am Apr 24, 2010 5:33am
I've got a question regarding the TBL on daily EURCAD.

I know it shows divergence and could not close well below the low formed two weeks ago. But in spite of that:
Do you consider it to be a bad sign for a TBL that the 2nd bar made it higher than the 1st and closed in it's upper third (losing momentum)? Or is this splitting hairs and not so important for the setup? I mean part of it is probably stop hunting at this all-time low.

Or would you even consider this to be a BUOB?

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Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
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