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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #61,681
  • Apr 23, 2010 11:23am Apr 23, 2010 11:23am
I'll be looking for an authoritative close.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #61,682
  • Apr 23, 2010 11:29am Apr 23, 2010 11:29am
How would you guys rate this setup if the bar closes?

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Its on the EURUSD, on the RN 1.33, Divergence, and pretty strong support from the monthly pivot point supports along with the natural support from the last 2 test.
  • #61,683
  • Apr 23, 2010 11:33am Apr 23, 2010 11:33am
Quoting mbqb11
does it honestly get any better then this? Just wish my brokers offered this pair
Wow...that's as good as it gets isn't it.
  • #61,684
  • Apr 23, 2010 11:38am Apr 23, 2010 11:38am
Quoting lovejoy80
Wow...that's as good as it gets isn't it.
Probably my favorite setup out there, especially coming into a friday
  • #61,685
  • Apr 23, 2010 11:46am Apr 23, 2010 11:46am
Quoting mbqb11
does it honestly get any better then this? Just wish my brokers offered this pair
easy money for my demo acc....
conservative play
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #61,686
  • Apr 23, 2010 11:53am Apr 23, 2010 11:53am
Just switched to a 2 day chart for this pair which is forming a nice BEOB on the daily. The 2 day chart is also developing a very nice Pin. As long as it closes below the 11500 it should be OK

FTA previous Bar Highs around 11433

Reasons for taking this trade:

Pin hard up against daily / weekly PPZ at 11500
Pin pierces 50 Fib from previous high (High Oct 2008 to Low Dec 2008)
Confirmed by BEOB on daily chart
Good Divergence on the daily

Reasons against:

Counter trend (steady up trend since beginning of March)

I know we have confirmation of this 2 day Pin on the daily with the BEOB, but if that BEOB wasn't there would a 2 day Pin be as valid as a Pin on the daily chart?
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  • #61,687
  • Apr 23, 2010 1:00pm Apr 23, 2010 1:00pm
Mike,

I passed on this personally. Was staring at it for a while though. On my feed (ibfx) the bar didnt close below previous bar. Would that make you pass personally. I know that it is hard not to be biased after you have seen it taken off.


Quoting mbqb11
does it honestly get any better then this? Just wish my brokers offered this pair
  • #61,688
  • Apr 23, 2010 1:03pm Apr 23, 2010 1:03pm
I am looking at this two setups.. Location, shape, RN, confluences - all are here :] Any suggestions?
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  • #61,689
  • Apr 23, 2010 1:04pm Apr 23, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting dmc
Mike,

I passed on this personally. Was staring at it for a while though. On my feed (ibfx) the bar didnt close below previous bar. Would that make you pass personally. I know that it is hard not to be biased after you have seen it taken off.
Hey D

What I would do if I wasn't comfortable with the IBFX close is wait and see what the next close looks like(fxpro), and in that case it would be a go for sure on the fxpro, IBFX is good enough for a friday bar like this, but I would wait for fxpro just for the extra confirmation

Mike
  • #61,690
  • Apr 23, 2010 1:33pm Apr 23, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting mbqb11
does it honestly get any better then this? Just wish my brokers offered this pair
Hi mbqb11,

I'm sorry to rain on your parade, but I don't see it. Sure, there is a divergence with the MACD which suggests the pair might drop, but divergence really only indicates a loss of momentum and is not a guarantee of a reversal. The pair may simply consolidate instead before continuing its trek upward. It has also just posted a bullish PB on the 4 hr chart. The divergence with the RSI is not as pronounced as what you see with the MACD. If you look at the 15 min chart, there is a bullish RSI divergence. I also note that the AUD is famous for overperforming and the SNB has proclaimed they will prevent the CHF from excessive appreciation, and the trade I think you are suggesting is counter trend and therefore more risky. So I think it is at best a toss up.

Even if it does drop, I think it is at significant risk of a rebound first. If I were going to short it, I would rather have shorted it at about 22:30 EDT last night, just as it was putting in the divergence you pointed out. Or maybe short it on the rebound I suspect is coming, but that will likely put us into Sunday night as things seem to be dying down now.

Steve0001
  • #61,691
  • Apr 23, 2010 1:34pm Apr 23, 2010 1:34pm
Hello,

my name is Andreas and I stumbled upon this thread about two years ago. I have read it silently and intermittendly ever since. My trading ambitions became more serious over time. I now feel ready to participate in this thread.
I joined Jackos trading group in January, which is great and teaches me a lot about trading (especially what it really means to be patient). Nevertheless, I want to enhance my knowledge and so my trading opportunities. This thread and Jim's group seems to be the perfect place for that. That said I've learned a lot from all you honorable traders in the past. Thank you all for that. Hope I can give something back by joining this thread.

My first question: I don't really get why AUDCHF seems so perfect. It shows divergence, a nice BEOB with close under 1.000 and it may be time for a retrace to the TL. But what about the bullish signal on weekly (broke an I4B to the upside and shows BUOB)? Isn't that a similar situation as on GBPCHF 4hr PB that failed yesterday.

...hm, now that I've wrote this analysis, it really looks like a perfect setup to me... Nevertheless curious about your answers...

Thanks a lot
Andreas
Thanks J16, Sam Seiden, Udine and Jacko
  • #61,692
  • Apr 23, 2010 1:57pm Apr 23, 2010 1:57pm
Here's a setup I'm watching too...

BEOB on a BRN, between 61.8 and 50% retracement and PPZ, good location and in the direction of the trend... I've marked my trouble areas, I think this setup has potential if the close will be good (in about 2 hours)..

I will risk 1% of my demo account, I'm tempted to hold the position for some day...
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Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #61,693
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:07pm Apr 23, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting Steve0001
Hi mbqb11,

I'm sorry to rain on your parade, but I don't see it. Sure, there is a divergence with the MACD which suggests the pair might drop, but divergence really only indicates a loss of momentum and is not a guarantee of a reversal. The pair may simply consolidate instead before continuing its trek upward. It has also just posted a bullish PB on the 4 hr chart. The divergence with the RSI is not as pronounced as what you see with the MACD. If you look at the 15 min chart, there is a bullish RSI divergence. I also note that the AUD is famous...
Hey Steve

Our entry would be on the BEOB at the top that closed below the round number. This is an extremely high probability trade, This trade has run well of by now, what it does at this point is not really of concern . I think you are misunderstanding the entry of this trade.

Hope that clear is up
Mike
  • #61,694
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:11pm Apr 23, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting HanSolo

My first question: I don't really get why AUDCHF seems so perfect. It shows divergence, a nice BEOB with close under 1.000 and it may be time for a retrace to the TL. But what about the bullish signal on weekly (broke an I4B to the upside and shows BUOB)? Isn't that a similar situation as on GBPCHF 4hr PB that failed yesterday.

...hm, now that I've wrote this analysis, it really looks like a perfect setup to me... Nevertheless curious about your answers...

Thanks a lot
Andreas
Hey Andreas

This is a key key area. 1.0 parity on a pair is an area that all traders are going to be watching. With the divergence that was forming we know that price 'might' be headed for a retracement sometime soon. This level is a great place to look for that. Especially on fridays which are notorious profit taking days. As for what is going on the higher timeframe it is not relevant to me. Everything is relative to the timeframe I am on. Now when price approached 1.00 it was sharply rejected downards give us a very big beriah outside bar with a very strong close under ther 1.00 parity number. THi is about as strong as it gets for a move downards. I have built a lot of my trading around plays like this.

Hope that clears it up

Mike
  • #61,695
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:17pm Apr 23, 2010 2:17pm
Missed this one by a pip...

Have a wedding to go to tonight, everyone have a great weekend!


-- Danny
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  • #61,696
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:35pm Apr 23, 2010 2:35pm
I recall Jim saying that most anyone can trade trending markets....but the range bound markets can make or break a trader...most often we are in a range.....

thought this was a good example/chart---maybe you disagree?

BRN 86.00

Off 50% Fib

3 4hr pins for some pips

Still learning
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  • #61,697
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:56pm Apr 23, 2010 2:56pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Steve

Our entry would be on the BEOB at the top that closed below the round number. This is an extremely high probability trade, This trade has run well of by now, what it does at this point is not really of concern . I think you are misunderstanding the entry of this trade.

Hope that clear is up
Mike
Sorry Mike...would you short at the 1.000 BRN or wait for the close of the BEOB...or otherwise ....or which price would you sell?
  • #61,698
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:00pm Apr 23, 2010 3:00pm
Hello,
I am watching GBP/JPY, if the price breaks 145.00 level next week, and retraces to this level for support, that would be great for a long setup. The first target could be 147.00, and 150.00 would be TP2.
I am learning james16 trading style. Comments would be appreciated.

Jason
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  • #61,699
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:01pm Apr 23, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting Atc
Sorry Mike...would you short at the 1.000 BRN or wait for the close of the BEOB...or otherwise ....or which price would you sell?
Hey Atc

I always wait till the bar is closed and my sell order would go below the BEOB and my stop above the high of the bar. I am a very conservative trader.

Best
Mike
  • #61,700
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:02pm Apr 23, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting 2010
Hello,
I am watching GBP/JPY, if the price breaks 145.00 level next week, and retraces to this level for support, that would be great for a long setup. The first target could be 147.00, and 150.00 would be TP2.
I am learning james16 trading style. Comments would be appreciated.

Jason
Love this Jason, simple and effective
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