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AUD/USD

  • #21,381
  • Apr 23, 2010 10:15am Apr 23, 2010 10:15am
Quoting Martingale
Still want to talk about this? ;-)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=21341
sure if you want .. its still a really bad trade whether you made money or not your paying a premium to be in a bad trade with bad RR.. aud has 9% debt to gdp which us is close to 100% and who problems are huge 18% unemployment here in florida.. lowest state being north dakota at 7% i believe look at the us employment data and youll see a divergence between the unemployment checks and unemployment rate the numbers are being slated to improve wallstreet and fake a rebound.. while on the other hand aussy is a very strong commodity based currency that is fed by increase in commodity prices and look at commodities.. but like I said I come to the aussy to buy not short if I wanna short wouldnt it make since to short the Euro in the face of a crisis rather than the aussy in the face of stability.. but ive seen people call bad trades and make money but ive seen good trades called and lose money but at the end of a 5 year run ive seen the guy who calls good trades last longer.. good luck with your short
  • #21,382
  • Apr 23, 2010 10:26am Apr 23, 2010 10:26am
but with huge bear pullbacks like these who needs long orders right?
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  • #21,383
  • Apr 23, 2010 10:45am Apr 23, 2010 10:45am
What do you guys/gals think of the semi-breach of lower TL?
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #21,384
  • Apr 23, 2010 10:45am Apr 23, 2010 10:45am
Quoting domino
sure if you want .. its still a really bad trade whether you made money or not your paying a premium to be in a bad trade with bad RR.. aud has 9% debt to gdp which us is close to 100% and who problems are huge 18% unemployment here in florida.. lowest state being north dakota at 7% i believe look at the us employment data and youll see a divergence between the unemployment checks and unemployment rate the numbers are being slated to improve wallstreet and fake a rebound.. while on the other hand aussy is a very strong commodity based currency that...
I can only second all this...
  • #21,385
  • Edited 11:10am Apr 23, 2010 10:56am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting MarcVUM
What do you guys/gals think of the semi-breach of lower TL?

There is big chance bouncing to 9290.. if today 4hours chart close above lower TL..

My forecast is IF RBA hold its interest rates next month ( May / 6 more days ) , we will see a significant drop. until that only flip-flop up n down.
  • #21,386
  • Apr 23, 2010 12:18pm Apr 23, 2010 12:18pm
im still hold my sell & going long for AU...maybe i will be put my sell limit,lets see what happen for next week...im sorry if im wrong...
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  • #21,387
  • Apr 23, 2010 12:33pm Apr 23, 2010 12:33pm
DAILY PIVOT IS 92.56
  • #21,388
  • Apr 23, 2010 12:58pm Apr 23, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting Forexfsa
DAILY PIVOT IS 92.56
My daily pivot is 9267.. This is the site I use http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/

However, I have an important MA at 9157 right now and am counting on a slight pullback once it is hit.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #21,389
  • Apr 23, 2010 1:08pm Apr 23, 2010 1:08pm
possible scenarios i see at the moment
test of lower tl and down, but more likely up to descending tl from 11/4 - 21/4 highs, then down.
over the longer term i hold a bearish view, there is more room for down than up as i see it.
if/when there i a sell off i think it could drop like a stone, look at 2008 on weekly, dropped approx 3,800 pips in 14/15 weeks
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  • #21,390
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:57pm Apr 23, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting domino
sure if you want .. its still a really bad trade whether you made money or not your paying a premium to be in a bad trade with bad RR.. aud has 9% debt to gdp which us is close to 100% and who problems are huge 18% unemployment here in florida.. lowest state being north dakota at 7% i believe look at the us employment data and youll see a divergence between the unemployment checks and unemployment rate the numbers are being slated to improve wallstreet and fake a rebound.. while on the other hand aussy is a very strong commodity based currency that...
Thanks Domino. Great reply.
  • #21,391
  • Edited 6:40pm Apr 23, 2010 4:48pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting puks
I can't seem to make any trades in GoMarkets.

Anybody having the same issues?

The error is "Common Error".

Help?

thanks

Hi Puks

Same with me, I'll contact Chris Monday morning.

And we're not alone.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...201161&page=19

One other suspicious thought, it happened just before AUD started rising 100 pips.
  • #21,392
  • Apr 23, 2010 6:17pm Apr 23, 2010 6:17pm
my profit is stoped and have unrealize profit 80 pips. . where will this trend go?US report a good number of new home sales and core durable good order, and the trend goes reversly than it should. is there any fundamental cause why AUD/USD going back to 0.9280?
  • #21,393
  • Apr 23, 2010 6:45pm Apr 23, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting yeri
my profit is stoped and have unrealize profit 80 pips. . where will this trend go?US report a good number of new home sales and core durable good order, and the trend goes reversly than it should. is there any fundamental cause why AUD/USD going back to 0.9280?
Yes, it's called risk appetite. Since good numbers with US reports, investors put their money into higher yield currencies. If US reports came out with bad numbers, investors would take their money out and put them back into the US dollars or the Yen. These two currencies are considered as safe haven currencies. If you pay attention, if there's a bad reports or news or the market is too risky, you would see a sell off in G/J, E/J, A/J, E/U,A/U,G/U and so on.
  • #21,394
  • Apr 23, 2010 8:44pm Apr 23, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting lust pips
im still hold my sell & going long for AU...maybe i will be put my sell limit,lets see what happen for next week...im sorry if im wrong...Attachment
I'm also holding on to my longs. I'm expecting it go go back to at least 0.932 but I've set em to sell at 0.9292 cause I live to take buffers. However, I do believe that the outcome of how the pair will move will depend a lot on the EU meetings which will definitely discuss about the Greece issue now that they've asked IMF directly for aid, And probably China. My thoughts are that traders don't expect any help to be rendered to Greece so any bad news probably won't have any significant effect on the pair. On the other hand, some "consistent" good news on the issue may send the pair flying upwards again.
So I'll be watching over this issue like a hawk!
  • #21,395
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:24am Apr 24, 2010 3:24am
Quoting denewbie
I'm also holding on to my longs. I'm expecting it go go back to at least 0.932 but I've set em to sell at 0.9292 cause I live to take buffers. However, I do believe that the outcome of how the pair will move will depend a lot on the EU meetings which will definitely discuss about the Greece issue now that they've asked IMF directly for aid, And probably China. My thoughts are that traders don't expect any help to be rendered to Greece so any bad news probably won't have any significant effect on the pair. On the other hand, some "consistent" good...
yeah...you are right...
  • #21,396
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:59am Apr 24, 2010 3:59am
Quoting domino
sure if you want .. its still a really bad trade whether you made money or not your paying a premium to be in a bad trade with bad RR.. aud has 9% debt to gdp which us is close to 100% and who problems are huge 18% unemployment here in florida...
Thanks for the solide argument. Technically, the long term case has to be verified by breaking the 0.9387/0.9404 level. The short term case is currently drawn out of the feeling "...there must be a correction...". Everyone knows that this is not a solid argument in FOREX.

I know it from myself. Someone is easily getting tempted to project the short term situation (from indicators and charts) into the long term picture (and vice versa). That behavior will be even stimulated if someone has open positions (and in particular if they are in red). That’s the fertile ground on which wishful thinking is flourishing.

Well, there is also a solid fundamental reason to think about a bear turn. That’s the possible stop in RBA's interest rate hike cycle.

However, with the sharp dip and strong recovery yesterday, that has been proven to be the minor factor.

And here I like to come back to domino’s case. What is stopping hiking interest rate against financial tremors ala Greece & Spain and the CDO, lending & Gov. deficit swamp ala US. Holding physical assets such as raw materials & commodities is one of the best back insurances for a currency in times of troubles (in uncharted territory). I feel that is the more valid story behind the movement of the last days. The rate case was just good for the traders with the fast finger and the big profis just to sweep the market.

It is right, markets can stay longer irrational then a trader can stay liquid, but if then the market acknowledges the fundamentals – don’t be on the contra side. You will never get out unscratched.
There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
  • #21,397
  • Apr 24, 2010 4:07am Apr 24, 2010 4:07am
Keep in mind the lessons from the James16 thread!!!

We had yesterday a reverse pin bar. Not a perfect one, but with high probability.

(The bar in the read circle may be the possible subsequent move.)



Seismo
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There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
  • #21,398
  • Apr 24, 2010 6:02am Apr 24, 2010 6:02am
Quoting Seismograph
Keep in mind the lessons from the James16 thread!!!

We had yesterday a reverse pin bar. Not a perfect one, but with high probability.

(The bar in the read circle may be the possible subsequent move.)



Seismo
The retracement from 3/17 to 3/26 just tagged 78.6 and didn't close below. Price went away from this area of diagonal support as well. Of course, I may be totally wrong and the bears come out from hiding.
  • #21,399
  • Apr 25, 2010 4:37am Apr 25, 2010 4:37am
Hi
I gave up with this pair actually i never seen something like this on my system
Suppose my signal when red line cross white to down then i sell and i waited since 26 march till today Refuse to cross like someone insist to make it NOT to drop!!
Every turning point on Small TF i found it shooting Up
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  • #21,400
  • Apr 25, 2010 10:43am Apr 25, 2010 10:43am
Quoting egkid
Hi
I gave up with this pair actually i never seen something like this on my system
Suppose my signal when red line cross white to down then i sell and i waited since 26 march till today Refuse to cross like someone insist to make it NOT to drop!!
Every turning point on Small TF i found it shooting Up

What MA's are the red and white lines? sma or ema?
Thanks
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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