james16 Chart Thread | Page 3080 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #61,581
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:40pm Apr 22, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
One time Mike laid something out that woke me up.

If you make 1%/week on average, that's 50%/year average.

That is HUGE.

You do not need to waste your time on 4hr charts to achieve such a goal as that.

Just take A+ daily/weekly bars and watch your account grow.

Or take a bunch of 1 hr bars and watch your account shrink.

I used to keep all my charts on the 4hr time frame as my "standard view". now-a-days I cannot tell you the last time I looked at a 4 hr chart lol.

If you find yourself getting impatient, buy some trading books, or...
Great post!
"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail."
  • #61,582
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:53pm Apr 22, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting WizardPip
Thxs Mike, and in your experience this bars doesnt work out well?
Well any and all bars have a chance to work, the idea is to give yourself the best chance. If a bar can't even close within a prior bar it is showing one form of weakness. So after such a strong move down the question is "is this real buying" I determine if I(keyword I) think it is based on size and formation of the bar(and of course location most importantly). So if I see a small bar like this at the end of a huge run, it may lead to a retracement, but I am thinking more it is profit taking and weak buying as if the bulls were really in control wouldn't it have the strength to close much better. This ones are of no interest to me personally.

Hope that makes sense
Mike
  • #61,583
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:04pm Apr 22, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting mbqb11
Well any and all bars have a chance to work, the idea is to give yourself the best chance. If a bar can't even close within a prior bar it is showing one form of weakness. So after such a strong move down the question is "is this real buying" I determine if I(keyword I) think it is based on size and formation of the bar(and of course location most importantly). So if I see a small bar like this at the end of a huge run, it may lead to a retracement, but I am thinking more it is profit taking and weak buying as if the bulls were really in control...
Absolutly, its better to follow the rules knowing why the details are important, and it makes absolutly sense to me now

Many, many Thanx

Hector
  • #61,584
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:00pm Apr 22, 2010 3:00pm
Please someone tell me if I'm wrong here. I'm looking at this chart and though it hasn't closed as a DBLHC it looks like it might. However I'm not looking at taking this trade because even though it's close to the swing high it's also in the direction of the trend but without any significant retrace.

My question is. Is this a legitimate trade to take or is it risky considering there hasn't been any retracement in which to get back into a long position from. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #61,585
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:05pm Apr 22, 2010 3:05pm
Ghous (or anyone else who understands IPB's better than I do)...would this be considered a good setup?

IPB @ top (weekly PPZ above) with divergence...if this is considered a good setup the it could give us an insight as to what will come tomorrow for xxx/jpy.

Thanks
Mark
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: djia.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #61,586
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:29pm Apr 22, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting snooptym
Please someone tell me if I'm wrong here. I'm looking at this chart and though it hasn't closed as a DBLHC it looks like it might. However I'm not looking at taking this trade because even though it's close to the swing high it's also in the direction of the trend but without any significant retrace.

My question is. Is this a legitimate trade to take or is it risky considering there hasn't been any retracement in which to get back into a long position from. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.

Attachment
Hey snoop, I'd consider this a risky trade because of exactly what you mentioned. Continuation plays are tricky because you are trading right into resistance (recent bar highs).

I would only add that you are trading right into the big 'ol 1.0000 which is a huge round number (bigger than big).

Hope this helps,

-- Danny

Attached is my chart... (weekly shows location better).
Attached Image
  • #61,587
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:40pm Apr 22, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting snooptym
Please someone tell me if I'm wrong here. I'm looking at this chart and though it hasn't closed as a DBLHC it looks like it might. However I'm not looking at taking this trade because even though it's close to the swing high it's also in the direction of the trend but without any significant retrace.

My question is. Is this a legitimate trade to take or is it risky considering there hasn't been any retracement in which to get back into a long position from. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.

Attachment
I saw this too...although it is a BUOB on my feed (FxPro) i.e. a continuation bar...this is an easy pass for me as the BRN is just above and a big PPZ area (look at the weekly). In order to consider this a viable setup I'd want the BUOB to be pretty bog and to be straddling the BRN (steady!) i.e. having broken the BRN and closed above it. This way we have broken the BRN and strong PPZ and can be confident that a break of the BUOB would signal a continuation up in price.

At the moment the way I would play this pair would be on a break / retrace setup i.e. a break above the BRN and a retrace (ideally with some PA) and then back up again.
  • #61,588
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:41pm Apr 22, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting mbqb11
Well any and all bars have a chance to work, the idea is to give yourself the best chance. If a bar can't even close within a prior bar it is showing one form of weakness. So after such a strong move down the question is "is this real buying" I determine if I(keyword I) think it is based on size and formation of the bar(and of course location most importantly). So if I see a small bar like this at the end of a huge run, it may lead to a retracement, but I am thinking more it is profit taking and weak buying as if the bulls were really in control...
Hi Mike, I've never been posting in this thread before but i have followed it for almost two years now and trade price action on the daily with pretty good results! Even if I trade these kind of PA setups i still feel like I'm missing something in my approach of trading.
I just wonder where you developed the kind of thinking where you are able to make conclusions of what the bulls and bears are doing on the market just by looking at a candle.

Did you learn the "kind of thinking" from a book and then applied it in your analysis of the markets? If so could you recommend a book?


Regards Wakanapi!
  • #61,589
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:42pm Apr 22, 2010 3:42pm
I appreciate the response Bluetrader. You've confirmed what I was feeling in a much more eloquent way. Sometime I can't put into words what I see on a chart it seems to be more of a feeling. I don't know it's just hard for me to put it into words. If I could I think I'd understand things a little faster.
  • #61,590
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:49pm Apr 22, 2010 3:49pm
Great thread guys, Ive been reading bits and pieces of it for months.

I read recently that a trader uses a keltner channel and bollinger band to predict whipsaws with fairly high accuracy.

Is anyone here familiar with that and able to expand on it?

Regards Seb.
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #61,591
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:14pm Apr 22, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting Wakanapi
Hi Mike, I've never been posting in this thread before but i have followed it for almost two years now and trade price action on the daily with pretty good results! Even if I trade these kind of PA setups i still feel like I'm missing something in my approach of trading.
I just wonder where you developed the kind of thinking where you are able to make conclusions of what the bulls and bears are doing on the market just by looking at a candle.

Did you learn the "kind of thinking" from a book and then applied it in your analysis of the markets?...
Hey Waknapi

Glad to see you post

Just chart time and seeing things over and over. You just start to get a feel (for your own methods) and expand on that. Trial and error etc. The only book I ever recommend from a technical standpoint is Pring on Price patterns. It is very simplistic in nature and the reason I like it. I have never read many technical books I thought were really worth much to be honest.

Hope to see you posting more

Mike
  • #61,592
  • Edited 7:11pm Apr 22, 2010 6:28pm | Edited 7:11pm
Quoting sebastionay
I read recently that a trader uses a keltner channel and bollinger band to predict whipsaws with fairly high accuracy.
Keltner channels and BBs are essentially the same thing, with BBs being a more refined implementation. It's all just a play on mean reversion. Cant see any reason for using both.

And saying that a bar should reverse just because it is above its 20 period 'projected range' is a pretty decent way to go broke, imo. Saying it should keep going if it 'breaks' out of a channel projected by this tiny sample size (and based on the assumption that something should keep behaving the same was as it has in the last few weeks) is almost as bad.

Stick to PA and PPZ, imo.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #61,593
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:23pm Apr 22, 2010 8:23pm
anyone trade futures?

This looks like a good multi-bar-high breakout opportunity!
Attached Image
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,594
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:38pm Apr 22, 2010 8:38pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
anyone trade futures?

This looks like a good multi-bar-high breakout opportunity!
that sure does for a quick breakout play
  • #61,595
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:45pm Apr 22, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting mbqb11
that sure does for a quick breakout play
first target: 11200?
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #61,596
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:56pm Apr 22, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
first target: 11200?
seems reasonable, but being friday I would be more apt for a real quick take profit or just see how hard it breaks and trail out on a lower timeframe. Thats how I play multi bar breaks at least

Mike
  • #61,597
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:01pm Apr 22, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting spookie94
I think I'm starting to get a hang of the J16 concept, but could someone critique my chart analisys?

I usually check my charts once a day for setups, normaly around 9pm central. I only look at the daily and weekly charts as advised. I view about 22 pairs.

I first try to look for PA that really jumps out at me. If nothings there I move on to the next pair. If something catches my eye then I check PPZ, BRN, market trend, 150 & 365 EMAs, new highs or lows, and fibs. ?
One thing I have found that helps is to mark out PPZs beforehand - that way, you can quickly scan the chart to see if price is in any locations you are interested in - and if not, hit the next one.

Quoting spookie94
Am I on the right track here? I ask this question because I can sometimes scroll through my pairs in a matter of minutes if nothing jumps out at me. I've only placed 2 trades on my demo so far this month (both SHOULD have be winners and those mistakes will be corrected in the future). Is there something else besides reading that I can be or should be doing?
Sounds like you are doing fine. Often, there just are no setups.

Another thing you might like to try is to find a broker with a different time shift to the one you are using. WHen price is in an area where you think that it might give off a trade (big PPZs, round numbers, etc), you can check a couple of other timezones to see if there is any PA on it.

If you want to expand into other markets, there are a couple of brokers that offer a wide range of instruments for you to trade through MT4. I dont really have any experience with any of them (from what I can tell, they are largely synthetic spot instruments), but there are a few people here who definitely follow things like spot gold/silver/oil/pork bellies.

If you just want something else to help develop your skills, look at the charts posted in the thread and critique them. Do you think their PPZs are valid? Are their trendlines tradeable, or are they just curve fitting? Is the PA good enough for you to trade. Even if you dont post it, it is a great exercise to pick up things you might me missing, misusing or otherwise.

(and you shouldnt be worried about posting feedback on other people's charts - aside from me - everyone here is friendly and wont take offence if you disagree... most people welcome an opposing viewpoint!)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #61,598
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:16pm Apr 22, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting lexx
For these three months my acc has grown 20-25percent with risk about 2percent.
Nice work. That's a pretty sweet outcome.

Also, that avatar is the best thing I have ever seen. Welcome to Team Bear!

Quoting lexx
Interesting, but almost every trade was profitable (daily charts) with pin bars on confluence zones(brn,fibs,emas,ppz). I used to take full profit on nearest ppz and win rate is high.

However this zone can be situated near actual entry place, with full PB stoploss such trades have relative small RR.

After all these trades i have a question:
In your opinion, what's the best way to take profit? may be consider ppz And RR(at least >1 ) or more tight stops? I know it's all subjective, would like to hear your ideas/approaches.
I think we covered this one a couple of days ago. Basically, it boils down to your personal style. Some people like a move to breakeven, some people like a quick profit, some do a mix.

Usually, I'll skip these ones. I got better things to do than shoot for a 10pip profit with a hundred pip stop, even if it is +EV. If I do end up taking them and it is only a small return I usually just move my stop to b/e (or be+1...cant help myself ) as soon as possible and get it into a free trade. But, as you said, its a personal preference thing.

One thing I dont like is reducing my stop to an arbitary amount just to hit a target r:R. For me, your stop should always be based on the chart.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #61,599
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:21pm Apr 22, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting joelcf
One thing I have found that helps is to mark out PPZs beforehand - that way, you can quickly scan the chart to see if price is in any locations you are interested in - and if not, hit the next one.



Sounds like you are doing fine. Often, there just are no setups.

Another thing you might like to try is to find a broker with a different time shift to the one you are using. WHen price is in an area where you think that it might give off a trade (big PPZs, round numbers, etc), you can check a couple of other timezones to see if there is any...
Thanks for taking time to respond
  • #61,600
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:36pm Apr 22, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
anyone trade futures?

This looks like a good multi-bar-high breakout opportunity!

Hi Dan,
Just wondering why you and Mike would think this might break to the upside
as opposed to down. If we ignore that it is the dow and if we had some bearish divergence on macd for example could we expect heavy resistance at those highs and expect a downward move? Example the EURUSD had similiar bar highs at the end of November.
Thanks for the help and insight.
57 traders viewing now