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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,101
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:32pm Apr 22, 2010 12:32pm
if you don't believe in fib levels and fib projection take a look at this,
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  • #2,102
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:34pm Apr 22, 2010 12:34pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hey Tuner, take a look at the last chart I posted , when you are still in the middle of a cycle you shouldn't enter unless there is a re-touch of daily pivot with LSR supporting it outside - the concept is to trade the cycle not the signals so you should enter at the beginning or wait for the next cycle, which might be 1-3 days
Hey there Shahab..
Thanks for that. So I think I got it now. So lookin at the lines entry would be the first close below these 2 lines only. (or adding/reentering at daily pivot touch)
So pretty simple actually. Thanks for sharing that model!

an EA would indeed be the right thing for that to trail the stop automatically for example. (if you can't monitor the charts yourself all day)
--> the trailing stop I usually would use on that trade might have been hit with yesterdays bounce back up.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,103
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:41pm Apr 22, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..
Thanks for that. So I think I got it now. So lookin at the lines entry would be the first close below these 2 lines only. (or adding/reentering at daily pivot touch)
So pretty simple actually. Thanks for sharing that model!

an EA would indeed be the right thing for that to trail the stop automatically for example. (if you can't monitor the charts yourself all day)
--> the trailing stop I usually would use on that trade might have been hit with yesterdays bounce back up.
yea it's very simple and it has been working well for me (the E/U trade that's me but I closed with 75 pips at 61% projection )
if we have a EA we can back test and forward test and get a true estimate about the probability of the correct trade of the model
T/S as you said will be good for an EA like this but it should be a bit wide to allow some intraday light movement
  • #2,104
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:50pm Apr 22, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..
Thanks for that. So I think I got it now. So lookin at the lines entry would be the first close below these 2 lines only. (or adding/reentering at daily pivot touch)
So pretty simple actually. Thanks for sharing that model!

an EA would indeed be the right thing for that to trail the stop automatically for example. (if you can't monitor the charts yourself all day)
--> the trailing stop I usually would use on that trade might have been hit with yesterdays bounce back up.
this one A/U ,TFM approach as I mentioned yesterday
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  • #2,105
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:55pm Apr 22, 2010 12:55pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
yea it's very simple and it has been working well for me (the E/U trade that's me but I closed with 75 pips at 61% projection )
if we have a EA we can back test and forward test and get a true estimate about the probability of the correct trade of the model
T/S as you said will be good for an EA like this but it should be a bit wide to allow some intraday light movement
Had a look at those fib extensions now. wow!
Only used fib retracements the last time but I will look at them as well now.
Close at the 61% is understandable as it did bounce there quite hard...
and 75 pips are nice as well... when they are green
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,106
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:11pm Apr 22, 2010 1:11pm
hey shah..... the reason for my focus on that particular signal is someone might attach the ea just a few hours prior it..... so they would not be in the eariler trade.....


forget about any prior possible signals..... what if for some reason someone was not in the earlier trade, would the one marked by the arrow be vaild.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #2,107
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:14pm Apr 22, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting hayseed
hey shah..... the reason for my focus on that particular signal is someone might attach the ea just a few hours prior it..... so they would not be in the eariler trade.....


forget about any prior possible signals..... what if for some reason someone was not in the earlier trade, would the one marked by the arrow be vaild.....h
Yes, with that assumption it would be valid. did you make the EA? did you back test it?
  • #2,108
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:03pm Apr 22, 2010 2:03pm
Just wish to share a trade I just made that I did not make or lose money on nonetheless I stuck to my rules.
The Rule: Sell at Pivot / 200sma for a quick 5 pips... If it closes above before grabbing the 5 pips then get out at B/E if possible.

This does happen on occasion. After I get out it actually reaches my 5 pips! Oh well. Didn't lose anything.
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,109
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:03pm Apr 22, 2010 2:03pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting hayseed
hey shah..... the reason for my focus on that particular signal is someone might attach the ea just a few hours prior it..... so they would not be in the eariler trade.....


forget about any prior possible signals..... what if for some reason someone was not in the earlier trade, would the one marked by the arrow be vaild.....h
... or you could include some logic to only go for the first close below.
means only enter if prior H1 candle was still above the 2 lines or one of them.

could also be used in a way for the re-entry / adding to a position then (as in the AUD/USD chart from yesterday) as there was an H1 candle above the daily pivot and it came back .
-->Entering after the close below the 2 lines again then. (In that example not a perfect entry though but can be considered as an option)

sure you can do the "bits and bytes" for that easily
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,110
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:06pm Apr 22, 2010 6:06pm
G/U
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  • #2,111
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:13pm Apr 22, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Just wish to share a trade I just made that I did not make or lose money on nonetheless I stuck to my rules.
The Rule: Sell at Pivot / 200sma for a quick 5 pips... If it closes above before grabbing the 5 pips then get out at B/E if possible.

This does happen on occasion. After I get out it actually reaches my 5 pips! Oh well. Didn't lose anything.
Hi Marc, going for 5 pips, what's the SL then if you cant get out at break even,
  • #2,112
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:13pm Apr 22, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting shahab8b
G/U
that was quick!!! 50 * 2 pips already
  • #2,113
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:22pm Apr 22, 2010 6:22pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
that was quick!!! 50 * 2 pips already

I missed that one... But what did just cause that drop?... E/U as well. pretts
No news on my calendar..
some heavy stops triggered or what?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,114
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:24pm Apr 22, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Marc, going for 5 pips, what's the SL then if you cant get out at break even,
Well, I've always been able to. knock on wood. The theory is that if it closes above then it will come back to retest. If it doesn't then I look for a 10 pip SL. That would be two steps back before going one step forward.

Tell me again, where do you typically place your Pending Orders near S/R's...1,2,3...pips away?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,115
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:25pm Apr 22, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting Tuner

I missed that one... But what did just cause that drop?... E/U as well. pretts
No news on my calendar..
some heavy stops triggered or what?
I think broken of major E/U support created all of that , I'm kicking myself at closing my E/U short with only 75 pips
  • #2,116
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:25pm Apr 22, 2010 6:25pm
Daily S1 is about to be hit on A/U right now!!!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,117
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:28pm Apr 22, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Daily S1 is about to be hit on A/U right now!!!
I'm heavily short from .93 + area, the same for U/Cad (long) , looking to hold them till Fri NY
  • #2,118
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:33pm Apr 22, 2010 6:33pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
I think broken of major E/U support created all of that , I'm kicking myself at closing my E/U short with only 75 pips
I can imagine that... but 1.32 level together with weekly S3 limited that drop for now. nice bounce so far from here.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,119
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:37pm Apr 22, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting Tuner
I can imagine that... but 1.32 level together with weekly S3 limited that drop for now. nice bounce so far from here.
yea . a long E/U at weekly S3 1.3199 is so tempting but I fear E/U long
  • #2,120
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:43pm Apr 22, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Well, I've always been able to. knock on wood. The theory is that if it closes above then it will come back to retest. If it doesn't then I look for a 10 pip SL. That would be two steps back before going one step forward.

Tell me again, where do you typically place your Pending Orders near S/R's...1,2,3...pips away?
if it's daily 1-2 or exactly at the level is good for weekly may be 10-15
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