Josh's Trades

I often watch g/u while in an e/u trade and vice versa. Currently, G/u is going up while e/u is going down. I was short the e/u and got out early because the g/u was breaking out to the upside. But the e/u was looking quite bearish. Should I be watching what other pairs are doing when I'm trading e/u? I don't think so. I think I should treat each independently...

Possible Solution:
When I'm in a trade, minimize other charts. I'll still have the quote board, but it is less 'visual' than the other charts at least.

It's easy to get caught doing that. lol

Wrapping it up early today. Why?
- Have a midmorning meeting
- I made some money!
- Looks like quiet charts thus far
- It's going to be nearly 80F outside today... a good day to go to a park and read.

One live trade today. Exited with 0.91R. Again too early, but I figured we'd be coming back up to test 1.35 (which we did). No trading tomorrow.

A profitable week: +2.41R.

Nice trade Josh...I missed that one as was having lunch! A good way to end the day and the week

4 trades today. None of the first three reached 0.5R before failing.

G/U: I entered on the reversal (but no PA) at 1.53. Exited with spread loss basically when it didn't move. I reentered shortly afterwards, this time holding for full loss. Great location (midBB, with trend, 1.53RN), but no PA so poor trades really.

E/u: A good 15minute pinbar. DIV, prior day low. Not at a BB extreme though. Too tight a stop as I had to bail before it reached the red line (which it then rejected). Reentry after that 2bar pinbar rejection off red line. Stop slightly larger this time. Got out of 1/2 at the BRN and 1/2 shortly after, near the initial high.

Loss of 0.65R today.

4 trades today. All were with better signals.

First trade was the pinbar type bar on the 15minute. It dropped just as the bar was closing so it doesn't look as nice. I was playing this for a breakout higher of that ppz from prior highs.
Upon that failing, I took the large BEOB on the 5min off that resistance. Exited too early when price hit 1.34 and retraced.
Took the small pinbar type bar long off 1.34 but it didn't run, and I reversed that position, going short on the 1.34 breakout with the pinbar short. Took 1/2 off when we got the good sized opposing pinbar. Took the other 1/2 off at 1.3375.

I think I managed the trades pretty well today. I had a reason for everything I did, which is what I'm aiming for.

Gain of 1.85R today.

I have lots to do today, so only 1 trade. Managed pretty well, though it became a runner.
- 1.34RN
- Higher tf PPZ
- DIV

Missed that second trade. Was watching and considered entering before the close... but it just shot down upon bar close, so missed it. That one was similar to what I like - see above post link.

Also notice the RSI 50 mark holding as resistance...

1.1R gain today.

No trades Thurs/Fri as I was not in front of the charts much.

Gain of 2.29R on the week.

I just couldn't figure out the market today. Seemed to be lots of chop and stopped me out at b/e several times.
First trade was without PA. Exited quickly.
Second trade was off the 15min bearish bar off a retrace. It didn't follow through though, so full bar loss.
I bailed on the third trade too early as it would have netted 1R. Reentered quickly (4th trade) when we started to breakout, but that too failed, so b/e.
Choppy action stopped me out of the rest. I was happy to have managed the trades tightly as I did today. I was a little trigger shy early in the session. I think partially because I hadn't placed a trade since last Wednesday and partially because I've had success and I don't want it to go to my head and me blow up (though this is still a tiny fraction of my full account).

Loss of 0.51R today.

A better day today though the results don't fully show it.

First trade was a nice big pinbar that simply failed on g/u. Second was a nice beob at 1.36 that stalled at the daily open so I bailed early to avoid a loss. I entered on the next failure of 1.36 but didn't manage it too well. Should have taken some off at the prior lows/daily open, since I knew it had problems there 30 minutes prior.
Fourth trade was a pure breakout play (no pa). I again should have taken some off at the round number support. Instead I took some off near the retracement highs and reentered on a full position on the BEOB type formation on the RN. I didn't hold either of these more than several seconds though... Instinct was to close which I did. As you see, holding a minute or two more (or 30) would have given quite a nice day.

Good trade selection though, which is what I'm ultimately working on right now and always. Trade management will continue to develop with experience.

Gain of 0.62R today.

Just one trade today. I was in and out all morning, but didn't see much I'd have taken anyway.

Entered short on this after we rejected 1.3650, a minor ppz from prior lows. Swiftly fell. I got out of full position at yesterday's high (green line).

Gain of 1.45R today.

1st, 7th, and 12th trades were entered a minute or so prior to the bar close. But the bar close proved to be poor (the bar didn't close near the lows). This is something to continue watching for, and maybe a signal to exit on that close if we don't close near the extreme.

The 5th trade was something I look for, but I needed a longer nose on the high side, to break through and then fail those prior highs. Similar to Trade 9, where I shorted a similar setup, but here the tail basically fully engulfed the prior bar.

The 6th trade was off a similar bar to the 5th and 7th, but in the long direction. Notice two things. First the tail doesn't test/fail the prior bar low. Second, we don't get a very strong close. Ideally, we actually breakout of that 1.3550 zone with some conviction. I immediately reversed and went short when this failed (7S) and then long after 7S failed and we broke/closed through 1.3550 (8L).

I then took trade 10 long on a smaller size (due to large bar). Stopped out at b/e and reentered long (11L) on the pb-looking BUOB off 1.3550, thinking this was a retest of the breakout zone. In hindsight, this was true, but I didn't have my stop far enough way to hold through that deeper retracement. I took the final trade (12S) short (before bar close) thinking we were breaking out of 1.3550 to the downside... but the bar closed in the upper 1/2 of the bar and didn't look back.

I had a difficult time judging the direction of the trend. We had a strong move down, which I missed most of as I wasn't up yet. Most of my entries were with the anticipation that we were still with the trend downwards...I later revised that, looking for a breakout of 1.3550 long on e/u, then a false breakout, etc.

The detrimental feeling I was having all morning was that I 1) had already missed a good part of the move and 2) I sure don't want to miss any of the next move. So I was anticipating each and every breakout, despite price continuing to trade in a tight range.

It's important for me to remember that learning to trade takes time. I'll make the same mistakes more than once while learning to trade. Writing out my results and thoughts on the day on a daily basis is helping me learn and giving me the necessary experience to trade successfully.

I must reiterate to myself that this is why I systematically started on a very small account and am only increasing my trade size after I have consecutive weeks of profit. It's a unique privilege to be able to learn from days like this, when I only lost $10, than to be thrown into the gauntlet, risking hundreds of dollars each trade. Now keep your chin up. Walk through the trading morning, writing down anything I might do differently next time. Then move on with my day. Don't mope. Don't sulk. Reflect and learn. I get the opportunity to trade again tomorrow, where I will have the opportunity to better follow my rules.

Loss of 4.07R today.

I had a better mindset today and did a bit better at being patient. Still took many trades, but most were good setups this time.

*** One thing to really focus on is not entering until the bar is very close to closing. The occasional benefit from gaining those few extra pips is hugely offset by all the times the bar doesn't close in the shape/pattern I had entered on, which then means I didn't enter on a PA trigger. Trade 2 (long) was an example of this today.

Trades 1, 3, 5, and 7 all show a similar pattern. The tail tests a new recent high after some consolidation. Price rejects that breakout higher and instead moves lower, to close near/at the lows of the consolidation. This is where I entered short.

Notice how despite the tricky charts today, holding for longer term R gain would have worked quite well today.

Glad to have this week behind me and especially glad I was able to come back today and trade with composure and discipline. Looking forward to getting away from the charts for a few days and coming back refreshed early Monday.

Gain of 0.57R today.

Loss of 1.93R on the week.

Here's another example of that pattern I've been trading lately... Too bad I was running while this one formed Could have shorted DDM (ETF).

A somewhat frustrating day as I had several good trades run for a little while, but then retrace, stopping me out at b/e. When we are not trending, I should not expect a trend to start once I'm in a trade. Many of my trades this morning were in the E/U as we were chopping about in a 25 pip range.

First trade long BUOB off 1.52, quickly failed and I reversed. But price got sucked up in the 1.52 and eventually moved higher.

Entered trade 3 shortly before the close. Not a great close, but it ran right from the following open. Still, it didn't even move 10pips in my favor from my entry. 4th trade was a nice pinbar on consolidation as we started to notice we were trading sideways. Knowing this, and not getting a hard break, I decided to move to b/e after the next 2 bars, when I was in 4pips or so of profit. You can see price briefly retreated, hit my stop, and then moved a bit higher to the resistance.

Fifth trade was a long trade breakout of the windup just prior. But it was sucked back in after a 9 pip move to stop me out at b/e.

Sixth trade BUOB off midBB, but since we were in a consolidation zone, this trade didn't have near as much strength. It briefly broke out of the range, but couldn't hold it. The next bar looks quite bearish, but it started as a continuation pinbar long off the red line resistance. I entered 7L, but by the time the bar closed, it was 1)back inside the range, and 2) trading at the low of the bar. I exited soon after.

One could argue the pinbar formed on the 15min e/u (8S) was my best setup. It was off the midBB, with trend, under RSI 50, false breakout, etc. It did run nicely briefly, but again, got sucked back into and eventually through the range.

9S was basically what I look for, but perhaps I should have hesitated when the close was still in the top 1/2 of the congestion. Also, RSI 50 served as support. Still, I'm not at all upset about this trade.

10S entered early, on the resistance of the weekly/daily open that had been tested and failed twice prior recently. I bailed early but a nice pattern nonetheless.

Loss of 0.70 today. (Why can't I ever make $ on Mondays )

Some more good setups today. Trade 1S looked like a pretty good pinbar. Perhaps I needed a close in the lower 1/2 of the consolidation, but I think I would take this again.

Trade 2 was not a great setup. 15min pinbar, not at BB extreme, no DIV, CT... I didn't enter on the close of the 15min pb though. I waited for the retracement to fail. This gave me more confidence in the setup. As it wasn't a great setup, and it was CT, I bailed at 1R.

3S was a great setup. Retest of prior lows, 1.35 BRN/PPZ. It ran straight to the nearby lows, where I moved to b/e. I was hoping for a break through those, but it first moved higher, taking me out. Still, this then formed a double low. I entered on the break of those lows (no PA), which was the beginning of a nice runner.

Last trade (5S) was again what I look for. Took some time to break through the support of the consolidation, but we got a nice run once it did.

Gain of 2.29R today.

You are a very hard worker, congratulations. Im sure you are going to be very successful

A frustrating morning as I got caught up in some sideways trading after a nice move down on the e/u. The mindset was to take a short setup after a pullback/consolidation/pause and ride the trend started earlier. But each consolidation pattern broke higher instead of lower. This confused me. In summary, I had a difficult time judging whether the trend was up or down today...

First and second trades were basically the same. I reentered at the same price. First setup was a good one. Second didn't have PA.

By the third trade, my thinking had changed to being an uptrend and I entered before the close on the BUOB. We got a poor close on it though, and I closed out soon after. Trade 4S was a great looking pattern if the trend was down, but again, I wasn't sure we were trading down anymore. A nice break before moving higher, taking me out at b/e. Trade 5S was the exact opposite... formed from a false breakout in one direction, and a nice close. A good break, but only to the prior high [initially], and I bailed with a small loss. Upon taking that small loss, I reversed and expected a breakout lower, via trade 6. This was a poor trade off no PA and gave me a full loss.
These 4 trades were tough. With that significant of a pullback, I think the trading pattern of false break higher, then breakout below loses some edge. Had it formed at 1.34, maybe it'd be stronger...

Trade 7 was right into 1.34. I should have passed on this (and was initially planning to) unless the close was below 1.34, thus giving a nice bar and nice close. As it is, the bar isn't much different than a simple doji sitting on support.

Trade 8 was in anticipation of the breakout lower after a few good rejections of 1.34. But we weren't done testing the RN anyway, and I was stopped out. Which gives Trade 9, the pinbar off 1.34. I bailed on this trade early, and it would have turned into a nice one. I didn't like that price just sat there for about 15 minutes though, so not a bad call to close, given the horizontal range in the recent hours. I entered Trade 10 shortly later though, when it appeared clear that we would move lower. Not a very good close on the bar itself, but the next bar broke lower, allowing me to move to b/e.

The biggest thing today was to be extra careful of entering so many times in these horizontal times. Trades 3-6 were l, s, l, s back and forth, and netted -1.3%. Not good. This comes back to yesterday's comment that if we aren't in a trend, we can't simply expect a strong 30 pip breakout to occur without some major choppiness. and that is exactly what we got today.

Loss of 1.63R today.

Done a bit early today and just saw a nice g/u pinbar on 5min that I probably would have taken. Nonetheless, a good day. I was much more patient than I have been recently, watching for good setups and managing very tightly if the close wasn't ideal.

The first two trades (1S, 2S) were exactly that case. I entered on what turned out to be the low of the bar, and price rallied quickly, making the bar look very ordinary. I stuck with them and price eventually broke the lows of the bar... I exited at b/e when price just sat near my entry for 15-20 minutes.

Trade 3S was rejection off 1.54 that turned into a beob, which was great. Unfortunately, I had set my stop to b/e shortly after that, and we continued the consolidation just under 1.54, which stopped me out.

Trade 4S was on the e/u 15min chart. I entered on the close this time of the BEOB rejecting 1.3350. We got a big retracement on the next 15min bar that nearly stopped me out, but instead formed a pinbar shaped bar. Next bar was the break and a nice run. I exited partial near the close of that large bar and the other partial about 5minutes later. It would make sense to put the stop a bit above the 1.3330 s/r line I put in. As we see, price moved up to that line, but couldn't fight those prior lows and soon shot down another 45 pips.

It's important for me to remember that I don't have to place a trade. Avoiding that feeling that I missed the move is very counter productive. There are always more trading opportunities. Basing success on the quality of my trades is more important than the results. High quality trades will yield fine returns.

Only took one trade today as I have a 20mile run to do... I had a daily goal of getting about 1R, which would mean I'd meet my weekly goal.

Both e/u and g/u had huge ranges on the 5min bars this morning. e/u was over 13pips/bar and g/u was over 16 briefly. Given how choppy g/u was looking, I wasn't expecting to find much in the way of setups. But we eventually formed a nice range of about 30 pips. (1.5380-1.5350). Price moved to test 1.5350 again and formed a bullish pinbar... but it couldn't hold higher this time and formed an opposing bearish pinbar into the support. I didn't take this one though, because the close wasn't very good. Then a small consolidation bar... then my trigger bar, the bearish pinbar that closed near the bar lows. We got an immediate run up that nearly stopped me out (10pip stop), but then ran through the support and ran to my next ppz (1.5338ish), where I took full profit, about 5minutes before US and CAD data were released.

Gain of 1.3R on the day.

Gain of 2.71R on the week.