Domino's Price and order flow trading | Page 42 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Price-Structure-Order flow 449 replies

Supply demand trading and order flow 46 replies

How to flow with the order flow? 26 replies

Trading Strategies Using Price Action & Order Flow 187 replies

Order Flow Trading with ICCE Channels 3 replies

Attachments: Domino's Price and order flow trading
Exit Attachments

Domino's Price and order flow trading

  • #821
  • Apr 20, 2010 11:48pm Apr 20, 2010 11:48pm
Hi Domino,

The thread here is excellent and Kudos to you for starting it.

I have a question and I hope it is not too off topic.

I see duskacopy has an order book that is available if you open a demo account.

Do you know how to interface that, or any order-book for that matter with metatrader so the information is more decipherable?

Tips or tricks in this regard would be invaluable.

A
  • #822
  • Apr 20, 2010 11:49pm Apr 20, 2010 11:49pm
Quoting asgard2
Hi Domino,

The thread here is excellent and Kudos to you for starting it.

I have a question and I hope it is not too off topic.

I see duskacopy has an order book that is available if you open a demo account.

Do you know how to interface that, or any order-book for that matter with metatrader so the information is more decipherable?

Tips or tricks in this regard would be invaluable.

A
dunno sorry im not much of a metatrader user sorry..
  • #823
  • Apr 20, 2010 11:57pm Apr 20, 2010 11:57pm
on break stop in profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pa1.JPG Size: 76 KB
  • #824
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:32am Apr 21, 2010 12:32am
Quoting domino
dunno sorry im not much of a metatrader user sorry..
So what are you using to interpret what you see other than your eyes.. cause mine (eyes) go crossways after a pretty short time.
  • #825
  • Apr 21, 2010 2:00am Apr 21, 2010 2:00am
Quoting domino
RZ5E-F? -Swapped

great looking pending short here.. possibly tokyo break..
Good call!
  • #826
  • Apr 21, 2010 3:02pm Apr 21, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting asgard2
So what are you using to interpret what you see other than your eyes.. cause mine (eyes) go crossways after a pretty short time.
there is no interpretation needed really.. I mark up the zones on my charts in advance to spot big areas for the month week day 15m depending on what I wanna trade.. in this case for the day.. to get more trades to post.. these are the SZ RZ areas lots of touches good OF.. then I watch the price action for breaks.. if its at a RZ lots of touches good orderflow below.. and breaks short what is to interpret you go short and continue to go short as long as it continues to rebreak and drop. I use a bloom term for long term trading and oanda for this fast stuff to post.. all u need is simply price no fancy gadgets to blow your mind or whatever.
  • #827
  • Edited 3:23pm Apr 21, 2010 3:04pm | Edited 3:23pm
Quoting FXSurfer
Good call!
thanks..

looks like someone mentioned there brokers where rumoring soveriegn buying pressure at 1.3400 I think the Rumor sent it up.. seems to me if this was an intervention at 1.34 they would have picked a better number.. and the buying pressure would have been more severe..
(assuming theyd know what they are doing)
btw how do you like the avatar
  • #828
  • Apr 21, 2010 3:56pm Apr 21, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting domino
there is no interpretation needed really.. I mark up the zones on my charts in advance to spot big areas for the month week day 15m depending on what I wanna trade.. in this case for the day.. to get more trades to post.. these are the SZ RZ areas lots of touches good OF.. then I watch the price action for breaks.. if its at a RZ lots of touches good orderflow below.. and breaks short what is to interpret you go short and continue to go short as long as it continues to rebreak and drop....
Good clarifying post, D. Thanks!

(it's a good avatar for you! )
  • #829
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:20pm Apr 21, 2010 5:20pm
Quoting domino
you can see that at no time through the course of the trade is reward at a specific point greater than that of the loss area.. and at no point through the reward distribution is the amount of wins greater than losses+BE's and at no point through the curve is the sum of the trades in the profit higher than the trades in losses.. yet the reward for the risk on 100 evenly distributed trades at random is 1:2.5 R:R

I'm trying to get my head around this concept. Would it be too much to ask you to post your Excel sheet? I've been looking at ways to measure the amount that adding or subtracting positions adds to or detracts from the bottom line for a given strategy. It looks like you've got it all laid out in the sheet. I'm almost surprised that nobody has commented on this. Almost. I'd like to check your assumptions - for instance the Fail at 50% column makes sense on the loss side - half the losses are at 1x risk and half are at breakeven.

On the profit side how did you come up with the percentages under Run at 50%? I'm also curious about how the charts are calculated - I see the 2.5 Reward as the peak in the curve on the upper chart and on the bottom chart it peaks out at just over 5. But from the visible numbers I'm not entirely sure how you calculated those curves. I'd love to find out! If you can please post the Excel sheet. Thanks!

It sounds like you're saying that with random entries and a 50% win rate you can put profits on your side simply by adding into profitable moves and using breakeven stops. Can you conclude this from the data?
  • #830
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:23pm Apr 21, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting FXEZ
I'm trying to get my head around this concept. Would it be too much to ask you to post your Excel sheet? I've been looking at ways to measure the amount that adding or subtracting positions adds to or detracts from the bottom line for a given strategy.
I ran some tests about 6-8 months ago on FX data for almost 12 years of data or something like that.. I have the results written down in a trading research notebook.. basically the idea was to look at the sum of all the moves of the market and determine whether I was profitable due to MM or the "edge" I had in the market.. its funny when you look at this data because the chance of one bar forming is close to 50% 2 bars forming in sync with the first is 25% and 3rd bar in formation is 12.5% around the numbers do flex abit.. what suprised me for those months I also ran random excel data and back tested results of the same system with multiple MM on random data.. and from all those random charts I concluded that increasing more into the trade as it continues to break in the same direction.. leads to profits on these randomly generated charts.. adding a 1:1 stop and Tp over the trades on these charts results in Breakeven to small loss and is killed when spread is factored.. and increasing positions sizing with continuance makes money.. also set stop without a profit and moving stop as price move makes money on random charts.. only these two.. 1/2ing out of stuff loses lots of money over a long run.
Quote
It looks like you've got it all laid out in the sheet. I'm almost surprised that nobody has commented on this. Almost. I'd like to check your assumptions - for instance the Fail at 50% column makes sense on the loss side - half the losses are at 1x risk and half are at breakeven.
the assumptions are that 50% of losses will happen directly 1/2 of those can be prevented with BE.. and of the profits.. 25% will end up breaking even and continue to run.. and as you build into the trades for every new position you lower the dollar costed average and increase BE.. but as it move consecutively 25% actual win rate vrs.. 75% loss or breakeven rate is realistic and you make money on random data doing this.
Quote
It sounds like you're saying that with random entries and a 50% win rate you can put profits on your side simply by adding into profitable moves and using breakeven stops. Can you conclude this from the data?

I am saying this.. but edge causes the profits to explode..
breakouts from s&R do provide an immediate edge to the BE and stop part of the assumption.. such as reducing that from 25% full stop out to something like 22% and 22%BE rate .. this small change that is hardly noticable elsewhere will cause enormous profits.. for a system that works on randomness.. what I found is even if something is called random it still has that .. "black Swan" effect.. when randomly will run.. this occurs more in real life than in random data and when trading like this causes profits to explode...
  • #831
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:38pm Apr 21, 2010 6:38pm
for example a Pin bar break here show the main edge is temporary surge and imbalance in the break wave.. moving to BE over the highs and it continues to break WILL create profits even in randomy generated data but even more so in real trading. The best edge tho much like J16 says comes from the noticability of the trade the stacking of confluence the strength if its swapped and what not make for an immediate surge in direction from the volatility of the break on multiple time frames.. this reduces the risk after entrance and the adjustment of stop into profit over the highs resulting in profit in random data and even more so in real trading.. of course not saying that j16 is PA or that people should go sign up for his PF because if you can make mad money trading why charge people right.. anyways.. the idea.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pa1.JPG Size: 18 KB
  • #832
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:56pm Apr 21, 2010 6:56pm
keep eyes open for a long on eur 15mim
  • #833
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:08pm Apr 21, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting kareem
keep eyes open for a long on eur 15mim
why do you think long?
  • #834
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:26pm Apr 21, 2010 7:26pm
beware the breakout high on low volume. looks broke long low volume... not in this.
canceling pending short for the night
  • #835
  • Apr 21, 2010 7:45pm Apr 21, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting domino
WILL create profits even in randomy generated data.
No it won't. The "pattern" doesn't exist in random data. Random by it's very nature is devoid of pattern.
Or to put it another way. THe premise of your trading is based on imbalaces in order flow. Random data doesn't have any imbalances.
  • #836
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:10am Apr 22, 2010 12:10am
Quoting Ted1983
No it won't. The "pattern" doesn't exist in random data. Random by it's very nature is devoid of pattern.
Or to put it another way. THe premise of your trading is based on imbalaces in order flow. Random data doesn't have any imbalances.
sure it will try it if you say random is void of pattern you must mean that a randomly generated excel sheet does not have pinbars at swing highs? try it youll see it .. youll see it pin and run... youll be able to draw trendlines... trust me
  • #837
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:14am Apr 22, 2010 12:14am
its was good pulling that short today that breakout did nothing..waiting for london now... see what we get short
  • #838
  • Edited 1:47am Apr 22, 2010 1:33am | Edited 1:47am
Possible volatility on E/U comes in above 1.3410. Also below 1.3375. News will tell!
  • #839
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:23am Apr 22, 2010 2:23am
Quoting FXEZ
Possible volatility on E/U comes in above 1.3410. Also below 1.3375. News will tell!
News is around the corner. So far though Sellers aren't dealing with this pivotal price as well they have during Asia. Maybe waiting for news to drop the hammer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 10 KB
  • #840
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:42am Apr 22, 2010 2:42am
Quoting FXSurfer
News is around the corner. So far though Sellers aren't dealing with this pivotal price as well they have during Asia. Maybe waiting for news to drop the hammer.
I think GU news are the most important for london session, and can carry EU price too.

Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
1 trader viewing now